现货黄金： 消息面：由于交易员评估乌克兰和平谈判的最新进展，黄金价格在前一交易日上涨超过1%后小幅走 低。特朗普和普京的通话似乎没有取得任何重大突破，但特朗普表示，莫斯科和基辅"将立即开始停火 谈判"。与此同时，美联储几位官员定于周二晚些时候发表讲话，可能会让美联储的政策前景更加明 朗。日内无重点关注数据及事件，可留意次日凌晨1点的2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆 就经济前景和货币政策发表讲话。 技术面：黄金昨日小幅高开走高触及3250一线后回补缺口触及3205附近低点后行情再次拉升，最高触及 3249附近区间整理，日线最终收线在3230一线以一根上影线很长的小阳线收线，而当下日线两阴加一 阳，昨天又没破底，从日线的角度来看，今天预期还是探底回升的概率偏大！短期重要压力位置在3252 附近；破位上看3265-3272附近；晚间如果强势破位3272一线，那么多头将试探3310附近滞涨！下方重 点支撑位置是3225的支撑带；破位下看3218-3207一线！综合分析：晚间预计在3310-3200区间震荡，个 人建议低多为主！GOLD分水岭：3227美元/盎司！现报价：3235一线！ 晚间黄金操作建议： ...

伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬 资料图 图源：外媒 报道称，特朗普16日乘"空军一号"离开阿联酋时曾向记者表示，伊朗已收到美方关于核协议的提案，伊朗 需迅速采取行动解决持续数十年的争端。特朗普警告称："更重要的是，他们知道必须尽快行动，否则会 有不好的事情发生。" 【环球网报道记者 李飒】据路透社最新报道，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬当地时间17日表示，美国总统特朗普 同时提到"和平"和"威胁"， "我们应该相信哪一个"？此前一天，特朗普乘专机离开阿联酋时称，伊朗已收 到美方关于核协议的提案，并警告伊朗需迅速采取行动以解决持续数十年的争端。 路透社称，对于特朗普的说法，伊朗外长阿拉格齐随后在社交媒体X平台上发文称，"德黑兰尚未收到美 方提议"，"伊朗绝不会放弃和平使用铀浓缩的权利"。 阿拉格齐15日还表态称，关于当前的（伊美）谈判，必须明确指出，美国方面提出了许多相互矛盾的立 场。这些矛盾可能是由于美国决策结构缺乏集中化，也可能被认为是其特定谈判风格的一部分。 路透社称，佩泽希齐扬当天在德黑兰出席海军活动时表示，"他（特朗普）一边谈论和平，另一边却威胁 要使用最先进的大规模杀伤性工具"，"我们应该相信哪一个？"佩泽希齐扬还表示，伊 ...

智通财经5月17日电，伊朗与英国、法国、德国外交官员16日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔就伊朗核协议问题举 行会谈。伊朗和英国方面会后表示，各方可能再次就相关事宜举行会谈。参与会谈的伊朗外交部副部长 卡泽姆·加里布阿巴迪会后在社交媒体X上写道："我们就最近间接的涉核磋商以及解除制裁事宜交换了 意见、进行了讨论。伊朗和欧洲三国都决心持续并充分利用外交手段。如有必要，我们将再次举行会 谈。" 欧洲三国与伊朗在土耳其就伊核协议举行会谈 ...

美股三大指数集体高开。 截至发稿，道指涨0.08%，纳指涨0.22%，标普500指数涨0.13%。 诺和诺德跌超2%，公司今天宣布CEO将辞职。 英伟达最新持仓曝光，相关概念股集体上扬，Applied Digital涨近12%，CoreWeave涨近8%，NEBIUS涨 超3%。 泽连斯基呼吁在俄罗斯拒绝全面停火情况下对其实施制裁。 美国总统特朗普15日在卡塔尔首都多哈表示，美国与伊朗就伊朗核问题全面协议条款达成"某种"共识， 美伊"接近达成"协议。前一天，伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的一名顾问接受美国媒体采访时说，伊朗 愿意放弃高丰度浓缩铀储备以换取美国解除对伊制裁。 谷歌股价上涨3%，消息上，文艺复兴科技Q1建仓ServiceNow、谷歌，大幅减持苹果。 热门中概股涨跌不一，禾赛涨超9%，哔哩哔哩美股涨超7%，高盛预计一季度游戏业务收入同比增长 71%。 现货黄金大跌，哈莫尼黄金、金田跌超3%。 特朗普强调，伊朗不能拥有核武器。 按照美联社说法，特朗普暗示，美伊围绕核协议条款"愈发一致"，不过没有作具体说明。他本周访问中 东地区期间重申，如果美伊谈判不成功，仍存在针对伊朗核设施发动军事行动的可能性。特朗普1 ...

美股三大指数集体高开。 截至发稿，道指涨0.08%，纳指涨0.22%，标普500指数涨0.13%。 诺和诺德跌超2%，公司今天宣布CEO将辞职。 美国与伊朗4月12日在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行了首轮间接谈判，这是美国2018年单方面退出2015年签署的伊 核协议后，首次与伊朗正式谈判。此后，双方分别于4月19日、4月26日及5月11日又举行了三轮间接谈判。 特朗普就美伊谈判释放积极信号后，国际市场对中东原油恢复供应预期增强，15日美国西得克萨斯中质原油 和英国伦敦布伦特原油期货价格应声下跌，跌幅均超过2%。英国AJ贝尔公司投资主管拉斯·贝尔表示，操盘 手对伊核协议前景倍加关注。如果美伊达成协议，美国将解除对伊朗的经济制裁，伊朗将向市场供应更多石 油。 英伟达最新持仓曝光，相关概念股集体上扬，Applied Digital涨近12%，CoreWeave涨近8%，NEBIUS涨超 3%。 谷歌股价上涨3%，消息上，文艺复兴科技Q1建仓ServiceNow、谷歌，大幅减持苹果。 热门中概股涨跌不一，禾赛涨超9% ， 哔哩哔哩美股涨超7%，高盛预计一季度游戏业务收入同比增长 71%。 现货黄金大跌，哈莫尼黄金、金田跌超3 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Demand is stable month - on - month, supply has rebounded, and the inventory accumulation speed of the industrial chain has slowed down since the second quarter. Low inventory supports near - term spot prices and benefits the long - term peak - season expectations. Oil prices are under pressure due to the smooth progress of the Iran nuclear deal. The unilateral price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and there is room for the asphalt/oil price spread to widen. The operating range of the BU2506 contract is expected to be between 3400 - 3550 [8]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On May 16, 2025, the prices of BU2506 (the main contract), BU2507, and BU2508 increased by 1.27%, 0.49%, and 0.35% respectively compared to the previous day, while SC2506 decreased by 1.51%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 4.62% to 7.5 million lots, and trading volume decreased by 8.92% to 11.9 million lots. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 86,520 tons [2]. - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: The spreads of BU06 - 07 and BU07 - 08 increased by 122.73% and 25.00% respectively. The Shandong - main contract basis, East China - main contract basis, and South China - main contract basis decreased by 12.50%, 30.36%, and 26.56% respectively [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The low - end prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged. Shandong gasoline and diesel prices decreased by 0.66% and 0.79% respectively. The price of Shandong petroleum coke remained unchanged, and the discount of diluted asphalt remained at - 5.3. The central parity rate of the exchange rate decreased by 0.03% [2]. - **Spreads and Profits**: Asphalt refinery profits decreased by 53.26% to - 79.00, refined oil comprehensive profits decreased by 12.14% to 365.91, BU - SC cracking spread increased by 19.83% to - 267.43, gasoline spot - Brent decreased by 5.58% to 941.70, and diesel spot - Brent decreased by 7.23% to 737.01 [2]. 2. Market Analysis - **Market Overview**: On May 16, the average domestic asphalt price was 3,673 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous day. Crude oil prices continued to fall, and market sentiment was cautious. In the North, although the prices of major refineries increased, actual demand was insufficient, and traders' selling prices decreased to stimulate sales. In the South, major refineries mainly shipped by sea, and asphalt prices lacked upward momentum [5]. - **Regional Markets**: In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,600 - 3,760 yuan/ton. Refinery inventories were low, but due to falling crude oil prices and weak terminal demand, some refineries and traders slightly reduced prices. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,570 yuan/ton. Major refineries planned to reduce production, which supported prices. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,380 - 3,430 yuan/ton. Demand was weak, and some refineries reduced prices to stimulate sales. Future demand is expected to gradually recover, but the rainy season and unstable crude oil prices will keep asphalt prices weakly stable [5][6]. 3. Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the closing price of the BU main contract, the open interest of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of Shandong local refinery gasoline and diesel, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [11][13][16].

在4月下旬的第三轮会谈中，阿拉格齐向威特科夫提交了一份更新的伊朗核协议想法文件。这一次，威 特科夫拿走了文件。 一位美国官员和另外两位直接知情的消息人士透露，特朗普政府在上周日的第四轮谈判中就已向伊朗提 交了一份核协议提案。 重这是自4月初核谈判开始以来，白宫特使威特科夫首次向伊朗方面提交了一份书面提案。 伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐将提案带回德黑兰，与最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊、马苏德·佩泽什基安总统及其他 高级官员进行磋商。 美国总统特朗普周二在沙特表示，他向伊朗方面递出了"橄榄枝"，但强调"这不是一份会永远有效的报 价。现在是他们做出选择的时候了。" 在第一轮会谈中，阿拉格齐向威特科夫提交了一份载有多项伊朗提案的书面文件。一位了解那次会晤的 消息人士称，威特科夫告诉阿拉格齐，现在还为时过早，他希望先建立融洽关系。 根据外媒获取的消息以及经另一位知情人士证实的一份会议记录，威特科夫上周三向联合国安理会作了 简报，将美国提案描述为"优雅"且"非常大"，但强调谈判需要取得更多进展。 消息人士称，威特科夫上周日在阿曼将提案交给了阿拉格齐。美国国务院官员拒绝置评。 目前，威特科夫对第四轮美伊会谈结果感到鼓舞，该轮会谈在特朗普 ...

油价再度回撤，关注伊核协议进展 市场分析 燃料油日报 | 2025-05-16 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等； 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌1.16%，报2991元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.18%，报3596 元/吨。 昨日基于美国与伊朗方的表态，市场对伊核协议达成、美国解除制裁的预期增加，从而带动油价回撤。但目前来 看，协议还未有定数，市场或反复波动。 就燃料油自身基本面来看，近期中美关税的下调利好贸易与航运需求，且在90天暂停期内存在额外的补库需求， 有望带动船用燃料油消费改善。其中，低硫燃料油下游需求更集中在船燃端，反应或更为敏感。此外，5月份地中 海ECA生效后，虽然低硫燃料油需求被部分替代，但炼厂也通过产品调整减少低硫燃料油供应，欧洲市场表现实 际强于此前预期，套利船货量的收紧也对亚洲市场形成支撑。高硫燃料油方面，随着夏季临近，中东等地发电厂 需求进入季节性增长阶段。但需要注意，如果美国解除对伊朗制裁，伊朗高硫燃料油出口有望回升，是潜在的利 空因素。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：无 跨期：关注逢低多FU2507-2509价差机会（正套），前期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in international oil prices, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions and potential agreements between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear negotiations, which could significantly impact oil supply and prices [2][3]. Geopolitical Factors - On May 15, international oil prices fell sharply, with WTI and Brent crude futures dropping over 4% at one point, attributed mainly to geopolitical tensions [2]. - Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, indicated Iran's willingness to sign a nuclear agreement with the U.S. under specific conditions, which could lead to the lifting of economic sanctions [2][3]. Oil Production and Market Predictions - Citigroup reported a high likelihood of an agreement between Washington and Tehran, potentially increasing Iran's oil production to over 4 million barrels per day and releasing oil reserves [3]. - Following this, Citigroup raised its three-month price forecast for Brent crude by $5 to $60 per barrel, while maintaining average forecasts for the second and third quarters at $62 and $63, respectively [3][4]. Refinery Support and Market Dynamics - Refinery margins have been a significant factor supporting oil prices, with high residual fuel oil crack spreads bolstering global refining profitability [5]. - Citigroup noted that increased refinery profitability could stimulate capacity utilization and hedging activities, providing temporary support for Brent prices [5]. OPEC+ Production Decisions - The unexpected decision by OPEC+ to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in June contributed to the decline in international oil prices, with the third-quarter production forecast raised to a surplus of nearly 600,000 barrels per day [6]. U.S.-Iran Relations - President Trump issued a "final warning" to Iran, emphasizing that the U.S. would not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons and urging Iran to choose between chaos and peace [7][9]. - Trump expressed a willingness to negotiate a new agreement with Iran, contingent on a change in Iran's current policies [9]. Iranian Response - Iranian officials, including President Raisi and Foreign Minister Zarif, rejected U.S. accusations of being a destabilizing force in the Middle East, asserting that U.S. sanctions and pressures have hindered Iran's development [10].

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/15 | | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/05/08 | 59.91 | 62.84 | 63.00 | -0.29 | 0.39 | -2.93 | 0.67 | 208.54 | 24.75 | 204.00 | 22.84 | | 2025/05/09 | 61.02 | 63.91 | 63.83 | - | 0.48 | -2.89 | 0.72 | 210.84 | 24.64 | 206.64 | 22.88 | | 2025/05/12 ...