Core Viewpoint - Israel's military actions against Iran will not cease unless the Fordow nuclear facility is destroyed, indicating a significant escalation in regional tensions and a potential need for U.S. military involvement [1][2]. Summary by Sections Israel's Military Strategy - Israel's military plans regarding Iran are independently formulated and encompass all elements of offensive action, maintaining ongoing communication with the U.S. without seeking direct involvement [1]. Fordow Nuclear Facility - The Fordow facility is located 90 meters underground, making it impervious to conventional weapons, necessitating U.S. military intervention for any airstrike to be effective [2]. - The facility is Iran's second uranium enrichment site, housing thousands of centrifuges, and has been accused by Israel of storing near-weapons-grade enriched uranium [2][4]. Historical Context - The Fordow facility was constructed during Ahmadinejad's presidency, officially declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 2009, and began uranium enrichment activities in December 2011 [4][5]. - Following the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, Iran resumed enrichment activities, with uranium enrichment levels reaching 83.7% by March 2023, close to the 90% required for weapons-grade material [5]. Challenges in Military Action - The facility's depth poses significant challenges for any military strike, as it was designed to withstand external attacks, with Israel having previously developed multiple plans to target it [6][7]. - The U.S. possesses the GBU-57 bunker buster bomb, capable of penetrating deep underground targets, but its deployment would require U.S. pilots and presents numerous technical and operational challenges [9][10]. International Implications - Any military action against the Fordow facility raises concerns about potential nuclear leaks and broader international repercussions, as highlighted by former U.S. military officials [10].

自1979年迄今，伊朗的国家发展战略（或者说国家安全发展 战略）有3条线——明线、暗线、实线。明线是反以，打造阿 拉伯世界领袖地位；暗线是缓和与美欧的关系，以期解除制 裁、发展经济；实线就是发展核能，以便在关键时刻制造出核 武器，使其成为国家安全的柱石。现在看，伊朗的雄心和其能 力并不匹配。 作者：王义伟 封图：东方IC 2025年6月13日开始，以色列战机长途奔袭轰炸伊朗，伊朗以无人机和导弹还击，双方再一次大打 出手。截至笔者撰写此篇稿件，以色列一方占据明显优势，伊朗多处核设施遭到轰炸，伊朗多名军 方高层将领和核科学家被炸死。 美国方面，美国总统特朗普于6月16日提前一天离开正在加拿大举行的七国集团峰会，在白宫召集 国家安全团队讨论以伊冲突。据美国媒体报道，特朗普正考虑一系列选项，包括加入以色列对伊朗 的空袭。特朗普通过社交媒体要求伊朗"无条件投降"。 这一次，伊 朗面对 的形势更加凶险，也再一次凸显了对伊朗国运的终极拷问：核与政权孰轻孰 重，能否兼得。 先回顾一下伊朗政权及其核发展脉络。 1979年，巴列维王朝被推翻，伊朗成立新政权。这个新政权与以美国、以色列为首的西方世界持 续处于对立、对抗、冲突状态， ...

这一次，伊朗面对的形势更加凶险，也再一次凸显了对伊朗国运的终极拷问：核与政权孰轻孰重，能否 兼得。 先回顾一下伊朗政权及其核发展脉络。 1979年，巴列维王朝被推翻，伊朗成立新政权。这个新政权与以美国、以色列为首的西方世界持续处于 对立、对抗、冲突状态，迄今已46年。 2025年6月13日开始，以色列战机长途奔袭轰炸伊朗，伊朗以无人机和导弹还击，双方再一次大打出 手。截至笔者撰写此篇稿件，以色列一方占据明显优势，伊朗多处核设施遭到轰炸，伊朗多名军方高层 将领和核科学家被炸死。 美国方面，美国总统特朗普于6月16日提前一天离开正在加拿大举行的七国集团峰会，在白宫召集国家 安全团队讨论以伊冲突。据美国媒体报道，特朗普正考虑一系列选项，包括加入以色列对伊朗的空袭。 特朗普通过社交媒体要求伊朗"无条件投降"。 2002年，伊朗流亡反对派组织发布消息，称伊朗正秘密建造铀浓缩设施 和重水反应堆。该消息震惊世 界。2003年9月，国际原子能机构（IAEA）通过决议，要求伊朗签署《不扩散核武器条约》并中止铀浓 缩活动，伊核问题正式爆发，迄今已经22年。 需要说明的是，根据《不扩散核武器条约》，包括中国在内的国际社会是不允许伊 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the recent Israel-Iran conflict, compares it with the two conflicts in 2024, and points out that the intensity of this round of conflict may exceed that of 2024. It also proposes three possible development paths and corresponding coping strategies [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Geopolitical Situation Review - On June 9, Iran rejected the US "Iran Nuclear Deal" and planned to submit its own proposal to the US through Oman [12]. - On June 10, the US and Iran were expected to hold the sixth - round of negotiations over the weekend. Iran warned that if attacked by Israel, it would target Israel's secret nuclear facilities [13]. - On June 11, Trump expressed reduced confidence in reaching the Iran Nuclear Deal. Iran's defense minister said Iran would attack US bases in the Middle East if the negotiation failed [14][15]. - On June 12, US non - essential personnel and their families in Kuwait, Bahrain and the US embassy in Iraq prepared to evacuate. The possibility of the sixth - round of US - Iran negotiations decreased [15]. - On June 13, Israel launched an air strike on Iran, named "Lion's Strength", and declared a national special emergency. Iran reported possible casualties of important leaders and an attack on its nuclear facility [17]. Past Israel - Iran Conflicts Reference - In April 2024, both sides carried out mutual air strikes but avoided attacking nuclear facilities. The oil price rose about 6% during the conflict and then quickly gave back the risk premium [20][21]. - In October 2024, there were limited air strikes, and both sides remained relatively restrained. The oil price rose about 13% during the conflict and then quickly gave back the risk premium [26][27]. Future Development Possibilities and Coping Strategies - **Conflict Intensity Comparison**: This conflict may be more intense than those in 2024 due to possible casualties of important Iranian leaders, direct attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, and the unclear US attitude. The Brent crude oil has risen about 18% from the low to the high in the past three trading days [28]. - **Possible Development Paths**: - The conflict intensity is equivalent to that in 2024: If Iran responds with restraint and the US pressures Israel again, the oil price may have reached its peak [28]. - The conflict intensity exceeds that in 2024 but is lower than a full - scale war: If Iran retaliates against Israel's nuclear facilities and the US supports Israel's counter - attack, the oil price may reach the range of $85 - 90 [28]. - A full - scale war: If Iran's retaliation is severe and involves Israel and the US, and the US loses control of the situation, the oil price may rise above $100 in the short term [28]. - **Coping Strategies**: - The conflict intensity is equivalent to that in 2024: Close all double - bought options and consider selling call options [33]. - The conflict intensity exceeds that in 2024 but is lower than a full - scale war: Partially close double - bought options and retain the remaining part to monitor the intensity [33]. - A full - scale war: Close put options, increase call option positions or sell put options [33]. - Key observation points include Iran's counter - attack time and intensity, whether the US - Iran negotiation will continue over the weekend, and the US stance [33].

王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 8850.00 | 8850.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 7200.00 | 7200.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 7150.00 | 7150.00 | 0.00% | | 下 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/6/12 游 | 元/吨 | 7100.00 | 7100.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 6520.00 | 6495.00 | 0.38% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 5840.00 | 5820.00 | 0.34% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | 2025/6/1 ...

中东突发。 当地时间11日，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示，伊朗不会不惜一切代价达成核协议。佩泽希齐扬重申，伊朗 不会制造核弹，但不允许任何人对伊朗施加压力。 "美军所有基地都在射程内" 伊朗称测试一枚带有2吨弹头的导弹 当地时间11日，纳西尔扎德谈到美国最近对伊朗的威胁时表示，若冲突被迫发生，美国损失将远超伊 朗。 当地时间6月11日，美国总统特朗普在华盛顿肯尼迪表演艺术中心参加活动时表示，美国人员正在撤离 中东地区。 当被问及为何要求美国人员离开时，特朗普回答称，因为"那里可能是一个危险的地方，我们将看看会 发生什么"。特朗普同时表示，美国不会允许伊朗拥有核武器。 伊朗国防部长纳西尔扎德6月11日警告称，如果伊朗与美国有关伊朗核问题的谈判失败，伊朗与美国发 生军事冲突，伊朗将袭击美国在中东地区的军事基地。此外还有报道称，一旦认为美国与伊朗无法就清 除伊朗所有的浓缩铀达成协议，以色列将对伊朗核设施发动袭击。 美国国务院11日说，已要求美国驻伊拉克使馆非必要人员及其家属撤离伊拉克。五角大楼同一天表示， 美国防长赫格塞思批准驻中东地区的美军家属自愿撤离。美媒援引匿名国防部官员的话报道，美军中央 司令部正在监视"中东地区 ...

中东突发。 当地时间6月11日，美国总统特朗普在华盛顿肯尼迪表演艺术中心参加活动时表示，美国人员正在撤离中东地区。 当被问及为何要求美国人员离开时，特朗普回答称，因为"那里可能是一个危险的地方，我们将看看会发生什么"。特朗普同时表示，美国不会允许伊朗拥有核武 器。 伊朗国防部长纳西尔扎德6月11日警告称，如果伊朗与美国有关伊朗核问题的谈判失败，伊朗与美国发生军事冲突，伊朗将袭击美国在中东地区的军事基地。此外还 有报道称，一旦认为美国与伊朗无法就清除伊朗所有的浓缩铀达成协议，以色列将对伊朗核设施发动袭击。 美国国务院11日说，已要求美国驻伊拉克使馆非必要人员及其家属撤离伊拉克。五角大楼同一天表示，美国防长赫格塞思批准驻中东地区的美军家属自愿撤离。美 媒援引匿名国防部官员的话报道，美军中央司令部正在监视"中东地区日益紧张的局势"。 伊朗总统：伊朗不会不惜一切代价达成核协议 当地时间11日，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示，伊朗不会不惜一切代价达成核协议。佩泽希齐扬重申，伊朗不会制造核弹，但不允许任何人对伊朗施加压力。 "美军所有基地都在射程内" 伊朗称测试一枚带有2吨弹头的导弹 当地时间11日，纳西尔扎德谈到美国最近对伊朗 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices have shown a strong performance, with the fundamental situation tightening on a sequential basis. Geopolitical risks have escalated, leading to increased fluctuations in crude oil spreads and stronger absolute prices. WTI has outperformed Brent and Dubai. Fundamentally, global oil inventories have increased, while US commercial inventories have decreased more than expected, and the number of US oil rigs has significantly declined. On the negative side, leading data on the US job market shows signs of cooling, and the latest apparent demand for US gasoline and diesel has dropped significantly. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of terminal product demand. This week, refining margins in Europe and the US have declined on a sequential basis, while those in Asia have remained high. Saudi Arabia and other countries have lowered their official selling prices to Asia in July to multi - year lows, and there are market rumors that Saudi Arabia intends to push OPEC+ to continue increasing production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and September to consolidate market share. Recently, the valuation repair of Brent and WTI crude oil has been realized, and the focus has shifted to whether geopolitical risks (such as the US - Iran and Israel - Palestine situations) will substantially escalate. High - altitude opportunities for absolute prices can be monitored [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - Middle East tensions have sharply escalated, with the US partially evacuating its personnel. Trump has expressed reduced confidence in reaching the Iran nuclear deal, and Iran has warned of potential strikes on US military bases. The US military has authorized the voluntary departure of military families from the Middle East, and the scale of the US mission in Iraq has been reduced. Israel's military has been on high alert, and the UK has warned of potential "military activity escalation." Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander - in - Chief has stated that upgraded missiles are ready for any battle [3][4][5]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 90,000 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels (a decrease of 0.63%), and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels (an increase of 0.2%). This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, with major refineries seeing increases in both, and independent refineries seeing decreases in both. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries increased for gasoline and decreased for diesel. Gasoline and diesel inventories in China decreased significantly. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded on a sequential basis, and that of local refineries improved on a sequential basis [6]. 3.3 Weekly Data - From June 5 to June 11, 2025, WTI increased by 3.17, Brent increased by 2.90, and Dubai increased by 1.93. SC decreased by 1.70, and Oman increased by 2.61. Other related products also showed various price changes, such as a 20.00 decrease in domestic gasoline prices and a 192.00 decrease in domestic gasoline - Brent differentials [3].

Domestic News - The China Automobile Association reported that from January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million units, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% of total sales [3] International News - Tensions in the Middle East have escalated, with Trump expressing reduced confidence in reaching an Iran nuclear deal, and Iran's defense minister stating that if negotiations fail, Iran will target U.S. military bases in the region [2] - International crude oil prices surged by 5%, and gold prices increased by over $20 amid the rising tensions [2] - The U.S. Customs total tax revenue reached a record $23 billion in May, with a year-on-year increase of nearly four times [2]

中东紧张局势急剧升温 美国人员部分撤离 金十数据整理中东局势跟踪（6月12日），在特朗普表示对达成伊核协议信心减弱，以及伊朗方面警告 可能打击美军基地之际，美国方面在北京时间今日凌晨通知美国在中东的人员部分撤离，原油黄金飙 涨。特朗普此前曾多次威胁打击伊朗。 1. 特朗普表示对达成伊核协议信心减弱，仍决心不让伊朗获得核武器。此前伊朗国防部长称若与美国发 生冲突，将打击该地区的美军基地。伊朗总统称正在与美国和欧洲进行会谈，但不会向武力屈服。 2. 两名美国官员星期三表示，由于与伊朗的紧张局势加剧，美国军方已经授权美军家属可自愿从中东各 地离开。 3. 白宫发言人：撤离决定基于国务院最近审查的结果，特朗普对此知情。 8. 美国官员：由于中东紧张局势，美国中央司令部司令推迟了原定于星期四在国会作证的时间。 9. 据AXIOS网站：以色列官员称，以色列国防军最近几天一直处于高度戒备状态，以防与伊朗的冲突 可能升级。 10. 英国方面警告：中东地区紧张局势加剧可能导致"军事活动升级"。 11. 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司令：已为任何战斗准备好升级版导弹。 4. 美国国务院官员：根据最新安全分析，决定缩减在伊拉克的美国使团规 ...