富国银行策略师Angelo Manolatos和Jack Boswell在一份报告中表示，一旦债务上限问题得到解决，且财 政部释放大量短期票据供应以重建其现金余额，那么2025年晚些时候，有担保隔夜融资利率 (SOFR) 很 可能会更持续地等于或高于联邦基金利率。富国银行经济团队预计，债务上限决议将在8月1日前（获得 国会山上调），但截止日期（X-Date）在9月初左右。 ...

美国总统特朗普：议员伊丽莎白·沃伦在债务上限问题上与我持一致立场。 ...

金十数据整理：昨日今晨重要新闻汇总（6月12日） 1. 中东紧张局势急剧升温-①特朗普表示对达成伊核协议的信心减弱。②伊朗防长称如果核谈判失败并 与美国发生冲突，伊朗将打击该地区的美军基地。③美方授权美军家属可自愿撤离中东，缩减在伊拉克 的美国使团规模。④国际原油一度飙涨5%，黄金拉升逾20美元。⑤据悉伊美周末举行第六轮核谈判举 行的可能性越来越小。 2. 英国就脱欧后的直布罗陀边境规则与欧盟达成一致。 5. 美国洛杉矶市长：宵禁将持续到必要的时间为止。美国总检察长：特朗普将在加州动用"霍布斯法"。 6. 贝森特：愿意继续留任财长一职至2029年。如果债务上限问题得不到解决，可能遭遇自2008年以来最 大的危机。 7. 关税-①欧盟希望贸易谈判时间延长至特朗普设定暂缓期限之后。②贝森特：只要在谈判中表现出"诚 意"，特朗普政府愿意将目前的90天关税暂停期延长至7月9日之后。③特朗普将在七国集团峰会期间举 行多场双边会谈。④美国5月海关总税收达到创纪录的230亿美元，同比增幅近四倍。⑤卢特尼克：一项 又一项的交易将会陆续达成。 国内新闻： 1. 李成钢：中美就落实两国元首通话共识及日内瓦会谈共识达成框架。 2. ...

文字早评 2025/06/10 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.43%，创指+1.07%，科创 50+0.60%，北证 50+1.08%，上证 50-0.08%，沪深 300+0.29%， 中证 500+0.76%，中证 1000+1.07%，中证 2000+1.44%，万得微盘+1.39%。两市合计成交 12864 亿，较上 一日+1344 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、统计局：5 月份 CPI 环比下降 0.2%，同比下降 0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.6%， 涨幅比上月扩大 0.1 个百分点；PPI 环比下降 0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降 3.3%，降幅比上月扩大 0.6 个百分点。 2、工信部：扎实推进"综合整治新能源汽车行业'内卷'问题"等 3 项集中整治。 3、中国 5 月按美元计出口同比增长 4.8%，增速低于 4 月 3.3 个百分点，对美出口大降 34.6%；进口下 降 3.4%，降幅扩大 3.2 个百分点。 资金面：融资额-31.16 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+3.30bp 至 1.411%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-1 ...

·国投期货表示，隔夜贵金属偏强震荡。近期市场风险偏好修复给金价带来一定压力，但白银受益于商 品的反弹向上突破刷新2012年以来新高。随着关税暂缓三个月截止期的临近，特朗普关税政策将继续主 导市场，俄乌等地缘局势持续紧张，金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路，白银破位后打开上方 空间。 ·五矿期货表示，美国经济数据进一步走弱，同时债务上限问题的逐步推进解决将加大下半年美债的发 行压力，美联储的进一步降息具备必要性，而这将驱动白银价格持续表现强势。当前贵金属策略上建议 维持多头思路，在美联储货币政策预期边际宽松的背景下白银价格表现将会更为强势，沪金主力合约参 考运行区间756-809元／克，沪银主力合约参考运行区间8545-9500元／千克。 ·国投期货：金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路 ·五矿期货：在美联储货币政策预期边际宽松的背景下白银价格表现将会更为强势 ·银河期货：黄金预计将继续在高位震荡调整白银可能延续偏强走势 ·StoneX：金价短期可能出现回调但仍具有上涨潜力 ·Forex.com：预计金价在本周上涨后将出现回调 【机构分析】 ·银河期货表示，继双方元首通话后，中美在伦敦开启经贸磋商 ...

但5月12日中美日内瓦协议之后，中美贸易冰封风险解除，美股明显修复，但是修复到了特朗普上任前的高点之后再往上突破，难度就开始加大了。 接下来的问题是，美股能突破新高吗？接下来的投资策略应该如何布置较好？海豚君本篇就重点来探讨这个问题。 一、中美首晤会是利多到头吗？ 大家好，我是海豚君！ 这段时间，折腾不停地特朗普还在搅动市场：从戏剧性《美丽大法案》、到特朗普威胁欧盟、苹果、 再到中美元首通话以及G2在英谈判， 甚至全球都在吃瓜的特 朗普 vs马斯克大决裂，可谓"人造"的波动一波未平，一波又起。 一直领跑全球的美股，无论是标普还是纳斯达克，2025年至今的收益基本为零，本质上 一直再 用EPS消化特朗普上任前不切实际拔估值。 而特朗普的政策走到现在： 1）关税问题长期谈判战： 从政策拟定到谈判，话事权逐步从原本的极度保守派如Peter Navarro等，过渡到以贝森特为代表的实用主义和华尔街亲和派，关税之前 来势汹汹，目前更多成了谈判的筹码。 对应的也是大家交易策略逐步转向"川普总认怂"（TACO：Trumps Always Chickens Out）的交易博弈。关税上的博弈对市场带来的影响也在逐步变小。 不过 ...

美国参议院民主党成员Warren呼吁：批准跨党派（税收）立法草案，一劳永逸地处置好债务上限问题。 ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the recent rise in long-term US Treasury yields, with both 20-year and 30-year yields surpassing 5% and remaining above this level since late May 2023 [3][4][8] - The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16 is identified as a primary factor contributing to the increase in yields, leading to a disappointing auction for 20-year bonds on May 21, where the final yield was 5.047%, up 24 basis points from April [4][6] - Concerns regarding the US debt ceiling have resurfaced, particularly following the passage of the "Beautiful Bill" on May 22, which allows for a $4 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, suggesting a return to expansionary fiscal policies [4][6][7] - Market fears of inflation and delayed interest rate cuts are also contributing to the sustained high yields, with the report indicating that the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower rates could keep yields elevated for an extended period [8] Summary by Sections Recent Yield Trends - Long-term US Treasury yields have recently risen above 5%, with specific reference to the 20-year and 30-year bonds [3][5] - The yields have been influenced by a combination of credit rating downgrades, debt ceiling issues, and inflation concerns [4][8] Credit Rating Impact - The downgrade by Moody's has led to increased market volatility and higher yields, as all three major rating agencies have now rated US debt below the highest level [4][6] - The immediate effect was seen in the auction results, which reflected a significant increase in yield compared to previous months [4][6] Debt Ceiling Concerns - The passage of the "Beautiful Bill" has raised expectations of increased debt supply, which could further pressure yields upward [4][6][7] - Historical context is provided, noting that after previous debt ceiling resolutions, yields have tended to rise, indicating a potential pattern [6][7] Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - The report highlights that inflation fears and the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts are likely to maintain high yield levels [8] - The probability of a rate cut in June has dropped significantly, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding monetary policy [8][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation is mixed. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, and there are concerns about US debt expansion. However, the good performance of the US manufacturing PMI provides support for metals. The Fed may release a dovish signal if interest rates rise rapidly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable with mainly capacity replacement in Shandong and Xinjiang. The consumption of aluminum has a seasonal off - peak expectation, but the weakening speed is expected to be slow. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum 3 - month decreased by 18.5 yuan/ton from 2484.5 on May 16th to 2466 on May 23rd. SHFE aluminum continuous three increased by 35.0 dollars/ton from 20020 to 20055. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10875.0 tons to 384575 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6750.0 tons to 56070 tons. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.4 tons to 55.7 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost increased by 326.8 yuan/ton to 16670.58 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased by 160.8 yuan/ton to 3627.42 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum was 20298 yuan/ton, an increase of 166 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average price of Nanchu spot aluminum was 20186 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton from last week [4] Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, the macro - situation is mixed, supply is stable, and consumption has a slow - weakening trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [7] Industry News - In March 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 616.09 million tons, consumption was 588.36 million tons, with a supply surplus of 27.72 million tons. From January to March 2025, the production was 1797.83 million tons, consumption was 1743.96 million tons, with a supply surplus of 53.87 million tons. Guangyuan Economic Development Zone has gathered over 90 aluminum - related enterprises. In April 2025, China exported 52 million tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative export was 188 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7% [8][9] Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc., which are used to show the price, ratio, premium, cost - profit, and inventory changes of aluminum [10][11][14]

研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 度陷入僵局，未来经济预期摇摆不定，金银比中长期中枢上移的背景下，金银价走势相关性下行，白银或 维持震荡偏弱运行。短期内，贵金属市场或维持区间震荡格局，关注后续关税谈判进展以及美联储官员最 免责声明 新发言。操作上建议，暂时观望为主，沪金2508合约关注区间：730-770元/克；沪银2508合约关注区间： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 7800-8200元/千克。COMEX黄金期货关注区间：3200-3260美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货关注区间：31.20- 32.80美元/盎司。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/ ...