Group 1 - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. decreased to 7.44 million in June, down from a revised 7.71 million in May, indicating a cooling trend in labor market demand [1][4] - The decline in job vacancies affected multiple sectors, including accommodation and food services, healthcare, and finance and insurance, suggesting a broad slowdown in job demand [1][4] - The current level of job vacancies remains above pre-pandemic averages, indicating overall healthy demand for labor, despite a slowdown in hiring pace [4] Group 2 - The hiring rate fell to 3.3% in June, the lowest since November of the previous year, while the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals remained at 1.1, a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve [4] - Some economists have raised concerns about the reliability of the JOLTS data due to low response rates and frequent revisions, although similar indicators from job site Indeed also showed a decline in job postings [4] - The upcoming July non-farm payroll report is expected to provide further insights into the labor market, with predictions of slowing job growth and rising unemployment rates [5]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia indicates that a stable downward trend in inflation expectations has not yet formed, and inflation expectations remain high [1] - There are increasing signs of weakness in the labor market [1]

Group 1 - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve marks the first time a sitting U.S. president has visited the Fed in nearly 20 years, making him the fourth president to do so [2] - The visit coincides with rising criticism regarding the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation project, suggesting Trump's interest may relate to his background in real estate development [2] - Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates from the current target range of 4.25%-4.50% to 1% to alleviate fiscal pressure [2] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate that the Fed is likely to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with only about a 60% chance of a rate cut in September according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - Recent data shows a decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating a resilient U.S. labor market, which supports the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to pause interest rate cuts for the first time in over a year, citing that current inflation has reached the mid-term target of 2% [5] - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned of downside risks to economic growth, particularly due to escalating global trade tensions [5] - There are expectations that the ECB may consider a rate cut in September, with traders anticipating at least one more cut this year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The strong labor market, increase in real income, and robust private sector balance sheets are supporting consumer spending [1] Group 1 - The labor market remains strong, contributing positively to economic stability [1] - Real income has seen an increase, which enhances consumer purchasing power [1] - Private sector balance sheets are described as robust, indicating financial health and capacity for investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman Bullock expects core inflation to gradually decline to 2.5% despite ongoing global economic uncertainties and unpredictability [1] Economic Indicators - Monthly data suggests that core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may not meet expectations [1] - A significant drop in CPI alongside only a slight increase in unemployment rate is surprising [1] Monetary Policy - The committee is seeking a cautious and gradual path for monetary easing [1] - The RBA's rate hikes have been smaller compared to other central banks, indicating that extensive rate cuts may not be necessary [1] Labor Market - The labor market remains tight, with expectations of some easing by the end of the year [1] - Leading indicators do not suggest a significant rise in the unemployment rate [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that the labor market is only slowly easing, with the unemployment rate remaining relatively low [1] - There is no specific target set for the unemployment rate or the number of job reductions [1]

美联储古尔斯比：如果开始看到劳动力市场恶化，这将成为我政策考量中的一个重要因素。 ...

Core Insights - The significant reduction in immigration and large-scale deportation policies are expected to negatively impact economic growth, contrary to claims that new budget proposals will boost growth above 3% [1][2] - The new budget allocates $70 billion for border security and $75 billion for domestic enforcement, which may lead to a decrease in population and labor force, adversely affecting economic growth [1][2] - A projected sharp decline in undocumented immigrants this year could lower U.S. GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points, given the historical average growth rate of about 2.5% [1][2] Immigration Policy Impact - If the Trump administration achieves its goal of deporting one million people annually, the economic drag could increase to 1.5 percentage points by 2027 [2] - The current U.S. economy is nearing full employment, with an unemployment rate of 2.7% for native workers in 2024, making the impact of reduced immigration on the labor market more pronounced [2] - The claim that limiting immigration will create job opportunities for native workers is challenged by data showing that native workers occupy only 1/8 of the jobs held by undocumented immigrants, which are often low-paying and physically demanding [2] Labor Market Dynamics - The complementary relationship between native workers and undocumented immigrants suggests that deportation may not create jobs for natives, as evidenced by past enforcement programs that reduced native employment rates and wages [2] - Automation and AI are unlikely to quickly fill the gap left by undocumented immigrants, as current AI applications primarily replace professional and clerical jobs rather than manual labor [3] - Strict immigration controls may deter STEM workers and students, delaying technological advancements and negatively impacting long-term productivity growth [3] Future Considerations - The U.S. faces a demographic challenge with an aging workforce and declining birth rates, necessitating a forward-looking immigration policy rather than merely reducing immigration and increasing deportations [3] - Without immigration, the U.S. population is projected to begin declining by 2033, which could constrain economic growth [3] - To achieve its economic growth objectives, the administration should reconsider its restrictive immigration policies [3]

Group 1 - The overall data from the labor market is described as "good" by Federal Reserve Governor Waller [1] - The performance of the private sector is not as strong as previously thought [1] - There is a reluctance to pre-commit to any specific action ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [1]

美联储理事沃勒：不需要太多就能扭转劳动力市场。 ...