"2025年是贵州历史上极不平凡的一年。省委、省政府深入贯彻落实习近平总书记在贵州考察时的重要讲话精神，坚决贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署， 坚持以高质量发展统揽全局，在全省营造大抓产业、大抓项目、大抓招商的浓厚氛围，创新实施'5+3'项目化抓落实工作机制，加强经济运行科学预判、精 准施策，推动高质量发展的思路更加清晰、措施更加精准、方法更加科学，全省经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，实现'十四五'圆满收官，成绩来之不易， 应当倍加珍惜。"陶平生表示。 明年是"十五五"的开局之年，陶平生表示，省商务厅将按照省委经济工作会的部署安排，推动商务高质量发展，重点实施开放型经济发展攻坚行动和提振 消费专项行动。 记者：田婷婷 邢宇清 三审：熊 莺 一审：洪英杰 二审：汤成伟 一是加快发展开放型经济，积极融入和服务国家战略，用好西部陆海新通道机遇，聚焦东南亚、南亚、中亚等主攻方向，坚定不移沿着"一带一路"走出 去。围绕产业、产品和企业，推动货物贸易扩量提质增效，聚焦"六大产业集群"和三大特色产业提升产业开放水平；持续扩大化肥、白酒、轮胎"老三 样"和电动汽车、锂电池、光伏产品"新三样"出口；出台"十五五"时期外贸主体倍增行动 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by policy expectations, Fed actions, and Japanese central bank decisions. In the current inflation - expectation game stage, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. Consider buying commodities, stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [1][2][3][4][5] - Be vigilant about the risks of macro - and fundamental resonance if market sentiment turns cold [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations in China have a pendulum effect. The Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference emphasized policies such as a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Multiple ministries responded, and attention should be paid to recent expectations of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts, as well as policies for stabilizing growth or the supply - side. China's November economic data was still under pressure, but foreign trade growth rebounded significantly [1] - The Fed restarted a "restrictive" stance, announcing the purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. The Fed may pause interest rate cuts again. The previous round of the Fed's bond - buying had a limited impact on the market, mainly providing liquidity [2] - The impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike was low. The reversal of carry - trade derivatives had limited impact due to the low proportion of foreign - held Japanese government bonds and the non - significant increase in net long positions of the US dollar against the yen [3] Commodity Analysis - In the non - ferrous metals sector, the long - term supply shortage has not been alleviated, and copper prices reached a record high due to Trump's tariff expectations and mine shutdowns [4][7] - In the energy sector, some countries submitted additional production - cut plans, and there were warnings of oversupply and high inventories. There were also developments in the Ukraine - related negotiations [4] - In the chemical sector, there is "anti - involution" potential in varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA [4] - In the agricultural products sector, attention should be paid to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather expectations after the China - US peace talks [4] - In the precious metals sector, look for opportunities to buy on dips, but the short - term risk of silver has increased, and the gold - silver ratio has deviated and is in the process of reasonable repair [4] Strategy - Go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5] Important News - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed measures to stabilize the real estate market, including incremental control, inventory reduction, and supply optimization [7] - The US Navy announced a plan to build new warships as part of Trump's "Golden Fleet" plan, aiming to revitalize the US shipbuilding industry [7] - There were price movements in commodities such as gold, silver, crude oil, and copper, and some commodity futures contracts had significant price changes [7] - Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry plans to issue special bonds to support investment in the US [7]

Core Insights - The consumer finance industry in China has undergone significant transformation and quality upgrades since the establishment of the first pilot consumer finance companies in 2010, with 31 licensed companies currently operating. The year 2025 will focus on "boosting consumption," "compliance development," "technology empowerment," and the "five major financial themes" as key drivers for the industry [1] Group 1: Boosting Consumption - Multiple consumption-boosting policies implemented this year provide clear guidance for the development of the consumer finance industry through 2025 and beyond. The challenge for consumer finance companies is to adapt to regulatory changes and convert policy benefits into consumption potential [2] - Companies like Zhongyou Consumer Finance and Mengshang Consumer Finance are actively implementing national consumption-boosting policies, focusing on expanding services to key demographics such as new citizens and enhancing consumer experiences through partnerships with platforms like Ele.me and Guangdong UnionPay [3][4] - The policies have provided a solid foundation and market confidence for the consumer finance industry, guiding financial resources towards essential consumer and emerging sectors [5] Group 2: Compliance Development - Regulatory policies have injected stronger momentum into boosting consumption while providing clear directions for the standardized development of consumer finance companies, promoting a more transparent and healthy industry [8] - Companies view compliance as a core competitive advantage, with strict regulations helping to eliminate poor industry participants and create a fairer competitive environment [11] - The focus on compliance is also seen as a means to enhance risk management and protect consumer rights, ensuring that companies can effectively support the real economy and boost consumption [11] Group 3: Technology Empowerment - Technology remains a core competitive advantage for the consumer finance industry, with companies accelerating their digital transformation to provide more convenient and inclusive financial services [12] - Companies are leveraging advanced technologies such as AI and big data to enhance operational efficiency and customer service, with significant investments in technology development and application [13][16] - The integration of technology into business processes has led to improved risk control and customer service capabilities, with companies developing intelligent management platforms and automated response systems [13][14] Group 4: Financial "Five Major Themes" - The consumer finance industry aims to integrate the "five major financial themes" of technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance into consumer scenarios and public services [17] - Companies are actively exploring opportunities in green finance and digital finance, with initiatives such as personal carbon accounts and fully online service processes to enhance accessibility [18][20] - The focus on inclusive finance is evident in efforts to tailor products to different customer segments, ensuring that financial services meet the diverse needs of the population [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chinese government is focusing on enhancing domestic consumption, particularly in the yacht and cruise sectors, as part of its economic strategy for high-quality development [1][2] - The Ministry of Transport reported that the number of newly registered yachts in China has been growing at an annual rate of over 40% for the past three years, indicating a shift from high-end to mass consumption in the yacht market [1] - The Ministry plans to revise the "Yacht Safety Management Regulations" to promote consumption while ensuring safety, and will enhance infrastructure for yacht docking and registration [1] Group 2 - The small and micro car rental market is identified as another significant growth area, with the total number of small micro cars for rent reaching 4 million, showing rapid development [2] - The Ministry of Transport forecasts an annual growth rate of approximately 15% for the short-term rental market during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - Plans are in place to address challenges in the small micro car rental sector by improving vehicle supply during peak times and facilitating convenient return options at transportation hubs [2]

行 业 及 产 业 轻工制造 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 23 日 扩内需提消费下关注个护、潮玩、 宠物等赛道；关注永艺股份报告 看好 —— 造纸轻工周报 2025/12/15-2025/12/19 本期投资提示： ⚫ 重点提示：1）内需消费：在扩大内需、提振消费的背景下，关注结构性消费机会，如国 货崛起的个护、相对高景气的宠物用品、悦己消费催化的 IP 潮玩 ...

今年的中央经济工作会议提出"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，并强调"深入实施提振消费专项行 动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。扩大优质商品和服务供给。" "历史和国际经验表明，国家经济在走向成熟的过程中，居民消费数量和质量的提升将成为经济增长和 结构升级的重要推动力。"招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼在接受《金融时报》 记者采访时表示。 今年以来，各地区以及银行业金融机构持续推进消费信贷产品创新，全面满足居民消费信贷资金需求。 展望2026年，受访专家普遍认为，消费增长支撑主要来自政策进一步加码显效以及服务消费潜力的加速 释放。 中国银行表示，要积极配合实施好提振消费专项行动和城乡居民增收计划，全方位满足居民多元消费需 求。建设银行表示，要加快升级产品服务体系，深入推进消费金融专项行动，更好满足人民群众多样化 差异化的金融需求。邮储银行（601658）表示，要全力支持扩大内需，服务提振消费专项行动、城乡居 民增收计划，加大消费贷款投放力度。 "银行机构需结合政策导向，在传统消费升级、服务消费扩容与新兴消费培育等领域发力，在需求侧做 好产品设计与体验优化，在供给侧做好企业资源调研对接与'一站式'服 ...

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" marks a critical period for China's modernization and economic development, emphasizing the need to address both opportunities and challenges in a changing global landscape [2][3] - The "启航·2025金融年会" will focus on key topics such as financial strength, technological self-reliance, and consumer stimulation, with participation from leaders in finance, technology, and retail [3][4] - The automotive industry is highlighted as a significant driver of China's economy, with expectations for a shift in the luxury car market towards safety, reliability, and quality in 2026 [3] Group 2 - China's economy is expected to demonstrate resilience, with the capital market projected to experience steady growth as it enters 2026 [4] - Experts will analyze the future growth drivers of the economy and the direction of the capital market, providing insights for various market participants [4] - The event will gather representatives from hundreds of financial institutions and listed companies for in-depth discussions [5][6]

Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The Henan Provincial Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of integrating into and serving the national unified market, with a focus on reforming the market allocation of factors in Zhengzhou [6][5] - The conference highlights the need for high-quality development in the manufacturing sector, promoting innovation and the integration of traditional and emerging industries [7][5] - Key tasks for the upcoming economic work include enhancing consumer demand, promoting new consumption models, and improving public services to boost overall economic growth [10][8] Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The conference stresses the significance of innovation-driven development, aiming to enhance original innovation capabilities and strengthen the role of enterprises in technological advancements [7][12] - Policies will be introduced to support the development of advanced manufacturing and the establishment of influential industries and brands [7][12] Group 3: Consumer and Market Dynamics - The focus on consumer spending includes initiatives to build new consumption service complexes and enhance the quality of commercial districts, aiming to stimulate digital, green, and health-related consumption [8][10] - The government plans to implement measures such as unconditional returns for offline shopping to create a more consumer-friendly environment [8][10] Group 4: Social Welfare and Public Services - The conference underscores the commitment to improving people's livelihoods, addressing employment, public service levels, and social security systems [10][12] - Specific initiatives will target key demographics, including graduates and migrant workers, to enhance employment opportunities and social support [10][12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The conference sets a vision for the "15th Five-Year Plan," aiming for comprehensive development and modernization in Henan, with a focus on high-quality growth and effective governance [11][12] - The emphasis is on collaboration and a unified approach to achieve economic and social development goals [13][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Henan Provincial Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of leveraging advantages to integrate and serve the national unified market, focusing on innovation-driven development, consumer demand stimulation, and improving people's livelihoods as key tasks for the upcoming economic year [4][5][9][10]. Group 1: Unified Market - The conference highlights the need to fully utilize advantages and deepen integration into the national unified market, with Zhengzhou as a pilot for market-oriented resource allocation reforms [5]. - Zhengzhou aims to eliminate barriers to the free flow and efficient allocation of resources, enhancing the quality of production factors and releasing market potential [5]. Group 2: Innovation-Driven Development - The meeting stresses the importance of promoting high-quality development in the manufacturing sector, focusing on enhancing original innovation capabilities and strengthening the role of enterprises in innovation [8]. - A series of forward-looking and targeted policy combinations will be introduced to support technological and industrial innovation [8]. Group 3: Consumer Demand Stimulation - The conference proposes to enhance consumer demand by developing new types of consumption service complexes and expanding digital, green, and health-related consumption [9]. - Measures will be implemented to improve the consumer environment, including a no-reason return policy for offline shopping and expanding the coverage of "reassured consumption insurance" [9]. Group 4: People's Livelihoods - The conference emphasizes prioritizing people's livelihoods, focusing on employment stability, public service enhancement, and addressing urgent issues faced by the population [10]. - Local governments are encouraged to improve services for key groups such as graduates, migrant workers, and veterans, while enhancing healthcare and social security systems [10].

近期，大消费板块企稳反弹迹象明显。上周五(12月19日)，万得大消费指数上涨1.33%，大幅跑赢上证 指数，本周一该指数继续走高，收盘上涨0.13%。 从细分板块来看，乳业、零售等板块均大幅上涨，12月以来万得零售指数累计上涨7.44%，万得乳业指 数累计上涨5.35%。 从股票型ETF资金流向来看，12月以来，涵盖消费、可选消费、旅游、食品饮料、主要消费等主题的20 余只ETF资金净流入超过22亿元，富国中证旅游主题ETF、汇添富中证主要消费ETF及嘉实中证主要消 费ETF净流入金额均超过1.5亿元，其中富国中证旅游主题ETF资金净流入近14亿元。 以旅游为主题的股票型ETF，本月以来均获得资金净流入。除上述富国中证旅游主题ETF外，华夏中证 旅游主题ETF资金净流入0.16亿元。 当前，扩大内需、提振消费已成为推动经济增长的关键着力点。此前召开的中央经济工作会议将"坚持 内需主导，建设强大国内市场"排在明年经济工作首位。东莞证券指出，在宏观环境波动的背景下，扩 大内需、提振消费已然成为经济增长的重要抓手。 从基本面来看，我国消费市场长期增长韧性凸显。"十四五"时期，我国社会消费品零售总额从2020年的 3 ...