丙午马年，骐骥昂首。当免签"朋友圈"扩容红利与"史上最长假期"相遇，一场跨越山海的双向奔赴由此 开启。从口岸通关的人潮涌动，到离境退税门店的消费火爆，再到泰国、韩国等目的地的出境游浪 潮，"马不停蹄"的跨境游热潮，不仅为全球旅游消费注入了新动能，更以鲜活的消费图景，折射出中国 大市场的强劲脉动。 春节跨境游之热，首先源自往来之"畅"。丙午马年第一天，中国对加拿大、英国持普通护照人员实施免 签政策，单方面免签"朋友圈"正式扩容至50国，这一政策与超长假期形成叠加效应，直接点燃了外国游 客来华过年的热情。春节假期全国边检机关查验的131.3万人次入境外国人中，适用免签政策入境的达 46万人次，较去年假期日均增长28.5%。数字的攀升印证着政策红利的充分释放。不仅入境游迎来井 喷，中国公民出境游同样迎来黄金期，泰国、韩国、马来西亚等短线目的地热度居高不下，中外人员双 向流动的规模持续刷新，单日出入境通关高峰更是达到225.9万人次。从免签政策扩围到240小时过境免 签的全域覆盖，从直航航线的加密到口岸精细化服务的升级，中国正以实打实的政策举措，向世界传递 出"开放大门越开越大"的鲜明信号。 春节跨境游之热，还在于文 ...

核心观点 证券研究报告 固收 "三高"环境下的应对和选择 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 2026 年 2 月 11 日│中国内地 资产配置周报 近期全球市场呈现出高估值、高共识、高波动的"三高"状态，贵金属、比 特币、海外长债、美元指数、部分科技股等资产均出现了大幅波动。背后源 于全球流动性宽松的环境，市场共识在 AI 时代低成本的快速传播，容易带 来拥挤行情。建议在交易层面兼顾赔率，基于风险因子预算以及资产的负相 关性多元化配置，加强对市场情绪、资金流和仓位的跟踪。配置上，高估值 +高拥挤带来近日的全球市场高波动，不过各国财政+AI 资本开支推动制造 业周期回升的基本面主线仍在延续，秩序重构等主题继续演绎，多数权益和 商品处于相对顺风，建议仍以回调后择机买入为主。国内春节将至，日历效 应对股市或更偏积极，债市在长假期间有票息优势。AI 模型、伊朗局势、 春节期间的消费数据等是关注点。 核心主题："三高"环境下的应对与选择 我们认为当前"三高"的市场环境源于以下几个方面，一是全球货币宽松以 及美元走弱带来的充裕流动性环境；二是全球秩序重构、AI 科技革命等主 线在 AI 时代快速演绎；三是新资金+强叙事+强动量， ...

Group 1 - The core consumer confidence index in the U.S. unexpectedly rose to 57.3 in February, the highest level in six months, driven by improved confidence among high-income individuals due to rising stock market and asset prices [1] - The survey conducted by the University of Michigan indicated that the consumer confidence index increased from 56.4 in January, surpassing the median economist expectation of 55 [1] - Consumers' short-term inflation expectations eased, with respondents anticipating an annualized inflation rate of 3.5% over the next 12 months, the lowest in a year, although long-term inflation expectations slightly increased [1] Group 2 - Despite the overall improvement in confidence, concerns regarding the job market have intensified, with respondents assessing their job loss probability at the highest level since July 2020 [2] - Recent data reflects a lack of momentum in the U.S. labor market, with job openings falling to the lowest level since 2020 and private sector job additions in January at only 22,000, alongside the highest number of layoffs in January since 2009 [2] - The current conditions index rose to 58.3, a four-month high, while the future expectations index saw a slight decline, indicating mixed sentiments about future economic conditions [2]

Economic Growth - The preliminary estimate indicates that Hong Kong's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q4 2025, up from 3.7% in Q3 2025 [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the GDP is expected to increase by 3.5%, compared to a growth of 2.6% in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of expansion [3] Growth Drivers - Strong demand for electronic products and robust trade within the Asia-Pacific region significantly boosted overall merchandise exports [3] - The tourism sector and active cross-border financial services contributed to a notable increase in service output [3] - Local consumption began to improve from Q2 2025, leading to an increase in private consumption expenditure [3] Investment Outlook - Overall investment expenditure is accelerating as the economic expansion becomes more solid [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that Hong Kong's economy will maintain a positive momentum, supported by moderate global economic expansion and sustained demand for AI-related electronic products [3] - Improved consumer and business confidence is expected to benefit consumption and investment activities [3]

Core Insights - The government work report addresses concerns and expectations regarding the development of Hainan Free Trade Port after its closure, emphasizing strategic, guiding, and actionable elements. Healthcare - The proposal encourages the introduction of policies to attract medical talent to grassroots levels, enhancing financial performance subsidies for local medical institutions and promoting a transparent performance distribution system [1] Energy - A focus on transforming Hainan's energy structure is suggested, with an emphasis on developing clean energy and optimizing industrial structures to meet the demands of the Free Trade Port [2] Digital Economy - The establishment of a core platform for the digital economy is recommended, aiming to enhance data flow and compliance, and support the construction of high-performance computing centers [3] Consumer Economy - The development of a "first store economy" is encouraged to enhance consumer experience and promote zero-tariff policies for daily necessities, along with the establishment of a "duty-free account" for residents [4] Electric Vehicle Management - Suggestions include the promotion of smart charging stations with integrated management platforms and regular inspections of electric vehicle sales and repair shops to combat illegal activities [5] Digital Product Passport - A unified digital product passport information platform is proposed to facilitate data sharing and support pilot projects in specific regions [6][7] Agricultural Products - The establishment of a special group for deep processing of agricultural products is recommended to support high-value product development and innovative farming models [8] Ecological Protection - Emphasis is placed on leveraging local resources to develop unique industries in central ecological areas, transforming natural resources into economic benefits [9] Farmer Income Increase - The creation of a provincial agricultural product information platform is suggested to connect farmers with enterprises, addressing sales concerns [10] Transportation - The proposal includes planning for a new high-speed train station to enhance transportation accessibility and support local economic development [11] Traditional Chinese Medicine - The integration of traditional Chinese medicine into the tourism industry is recommended to leverage local resources and promote health tourism [12] Cultural Promotion - Increased efforts to promote local cultural heritage through various platforms are suggested to attract tourists and enhance community engagement [13] Culinary Brand Development - The creation of a public brand for "Hainan Li Family Banquet" is proposed, focusing on talent cultivation and industry integration [15] Education - A proposal for a seamless talent cultivation program across different educational levels is suggested to enhance educational quality and international project implementation [16] Cross-Regional Industry Chain - The establishment of a cross-border venture capital fund is recommended to support strategic emerging industries and optimize investment ecosystems [17] Intangible Cultural Heritage - The integration of intangible cultural heritage into the education system is proposed, promoting cultural activities within school curricula [18]

Core Insights - The "Guangdong Goods Going Global - Bay Area Shopping Carnival" event aims to create an immersive Spring Festival cultural and tourism consumption experience through various formats such as live streaming and offline interactions [1][2] - The event highlights Guangdong's warm climate and rich cultural heritage, making it an attractive destination for celebrating the New Year [1] Group 1 - The event features a themed market showcasing categories like silver-haired economy, intangible cultural heritage, family-friendly activities, and wellness tourism, allowing visitors to experience the charm of Guangdong goods [2] - Online live streaming and offline displays are integrated to create a warm and distinctive consumer environment, positioning the market as a showcase for Lingnan culture and Guangdong products [2] - A themed pop-up sales event will take place in Harbin on January 31, promoting Guangdong goods and cultural flavors to a broader audience in Northeast China [2] Group 2 - The carnival serves as a platform for local businesses to expand their market reach and boost sales while promoting the revitalization and transmission of Lingnan intangible cultural heritage [2] - The event aims to enhance consumer confidence through targeted supply, contributing to the high-quality development of Guangdong's cultural tourism industry [2] - The carnival invites both domestic and international guests to connect online and offline, celebrating the cultural richness of Lingnan and the festive spirit of the Bay Area [2]

Group 1 - The first proposal emphasizes the importance of high-quality supply and boosting consumption as core strategies for expanding effective demand and stabilizing economic recovery in Suzhou [2][3] - The proposal identifies several key issues hindering the release of domestic demand potential, including structural shortages in quality goods and services, insufficient consumer confidence, and inadequate infrastructure [2] - A systematic set of countermeasures is suggested, focusing on enhancing quality supply, improving consumer support systems, optimizing investment structures, and strengthening market linkages [2] Group 2 - The second proposal aims to enhance the international influence of Suzhou's gardens, aligning with national strategies to promote Chinese culture and build a culturally strong province [3][4] - It highlights existing challenges such as insufficient coordination, inconsistent standards, and a lack of talent, which hinder the transformation of Suzhou's gardens from cultural resources to development advantages [3] - Specific actionable recommendations are provided, including promoting garden construction models abroad and extending the aesthetic economic value chain [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The articles emphasize the importance of prioritizing people's livelihoods to drive economic development, advocating for a strong domestic market as a foundation for modernization and sustainable growth [2][43]. Group 1: Economic Development and Livelihood Improvement - The central economic work conference highlights the need to focus on improving people's livelihoods while expanding development space, integrating consumption and investment to stimulate economic growth [2][43]. - The demand for housing quality and living conditions remains significant, with a projected urbanization rate of 67% for permanent residents by 2024, indicating ongoing housing demand [3][44]. - The shift in consumer preferences towards service-oriented and experiential consumption is evident, with per capita service consumption expenditure increasing from 5,000 yuan to 13,000 yuan from 2013 to 2024, representing a rise from 39.7% to 46.1% of total consumption [4][45]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption Dynamics - The articles advocate for a dual approach to stimulate both consumption and investment, emphasizing their interdependent relationship in driving economic growth [9][51]. - Investment in high-quality urban renewal and affordable housing is essential to meet the evolving housing needs of urban residents, particularly in densely populated areas [4][45]. - The integration of new technologies and creative solutions in product and service offerings is crucial to meet diverse consumer demands, as seen in various regional initiatives [5][46]. Group 3: Policy Support and Economic Governance - Strengthening policy support and reform is necessary to enhance the quality and quantity of consumption and investment, with a focus on improving income distribution and consumer confidence [12][54]. - The government aims to implement measures that facilitate a virtuous cycle of employment, income, consumption, and investment, ensuring a balanced economic development model [6][47]. - The emphasis on localized economic strategies reflects the need for tailored approaches to address regional disparities and promote sustainable growth [34][38].

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing popularity of the departure tax refund policy in China, particularly at Kunming Changshui International Airport, which has become a key entry and exit point for international travelers [2][3] - The airport has seen a significant rise in passenger traffic, with a 32% year-on-year increase in the number of travelers from January 1 to 3, totaling 35,000 [2] - The departure tax refund service has been streamlined, with a fully electronic application process and enhanced customer experience, contributing to a notable increase in tax refund applications and amounts [3] Group 1 - The departure tax refund process at Kunming Changshui International Airport is efficient, taking less than 5 minutes for travelers [2] - From 2025, the airport customs have processed 1,495 tax refund applications, with a total product value exceeding 28.977 million yuan and a tax refund amount of 3.593 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 567.4%, 317.2%, and 324.7% respectively [2] - Popular refund items include clothing, watches, and jewelry, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns among international travelers [2] Group 2 - The customs at Kunming Changshui International Airport have implemented a "special window acceptance, rapid verification, and immediate feedback" service model to enhance the shopping experience for international travelers [3] - The airport has set up dedicated tax refund verification stations in the international departure area, equipped with bilingual guidance and handheld translation devices to assist travelers [3] - The customs department dynamically allocates personnel based on flight schedules to ensure immediate service for travelers [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) has shown a positive market performance with an intraday increase of 0.77% and a current rise of 0.33%, indicating strong buying interest from investors [1] - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has experienced a net inflow of funds totaling 90.15 million, reflecting investor confidence in the future performance of Hong Kong stocks [1] - In the consumer sector, stocks like Pop Mart and Nongfu Spring have risen over 2% and 1% respectively, while in the technology sector, Meituan and Tencent have also shown positive movement [1] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness with November's non-farm payrolls adding only 64,000 jobs and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, the highest in four years [3] - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is likely to weaken the U.S. dollar and improve liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, potentially attracting foreign capital [3] - Analysts suggest that the current Hong Kong stock market is in a favorable position characterized by a "valuation bottom, liquidity bottom, and sentiment bottom," creating a strategic investment window [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) is designed with a "technology + dividend" strategy, combining high-growth tech stocks like Alibaba and Tencent with stable dividend-paying stocks such as China Construction Bank and Ping An [4] - The ETF offers a flexible "T+0" trading mechanism, making it an ideal long-term investment tool for those looking to balance risk and return in the Hong Kong market [4] - The recommendation is to adopt a "barbell strategy" for investment, focusing on stable value assets for long-term holdings while also considering growth-oriented assets that show strong industry fundamentals [3]