新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-08 美联储维持利率不变 市场要闻与重要数据 今日凌晨，美联储议息会议连续第三次维持利率不变，声明中强调通胀和失业率上升的风险走高。鲍威尔高呼不 确定性因素以及继续观望等待的成本很低，表示不急于降息。鲍威尔还称无意主动与特朗普会晤，后者的降息呼 吁无碍美联储的工作。美元有所走强，黄金则是出现冲高回落的情况。地缘方面，印度将在拉贾斯坦邦靠近国际 边界的地区开展大规模空战演习，此外印度方面还表示，如果巴基斯坦对袭击做出回应，印度也将做出回应。乌 克兰方面，乌克兰央行行长正在开始审议是否应该把欧元而不是美元作为参考货币。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-05-07，沪金主力合约开于 802.00元/克，收于 803.50元/克，较前一交易日收盘 1.09%。当日成交量为 413639手，持仓量为 188308手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 803.10 元/克，收于 802.68 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.07%。 2025-05-07，沪银主力合约开于 8240元/千克，收于 8252元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 537686手，持仓量 2303 ...

2025年4月，重庆惠程信息科技股份有限公司（以下简称"ST惠程"）发布2024年年度报告，报告期内， 公司多项关键财务指标出现较大变化，其中净利润同比下降7980.65%，经营活动产生的现金流量净额 同比下降515.87%，凸显公司面临的严峻形势。以下将对该公司年报进行详细解读。 营业收入：下滑22.40%，业务结构有变化 2024年，ST惠程实现营业收入197,235,872.29元，较上年的254,162,324.50元下降22.40%。从业务板块来 看，电力行业收入130,381,239.73元，占比66.10%，同比下降3.21%；新能源行业收入63,876,292.78元， 占比32.39%，同比下降24.90%；游戏行业收入归零，上年为27,734,934.67元，占比10.91% 。 公司表示，业绩下滑主要源于经营层面项目进展及完工进度不及预期，如光伏、风电项目；同时，市场 供求因素也导致充电桩业务执行订单减少。 扣非每股收益：亏损加深，达 -0.2159元 净利润：由盈转亏，降幅高达7980.65% 归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 -149,521,961.44元，而2023年为1,897,3 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-04-29 债务上限问题再度显现 市场要闻与重要数据 美国财长贝森特称，首笔贸易协议可能最早在本周或下周达成，印度或是首批之一 。而德国候任总理默茨则表示 将敦促特朗普取消所有关税。此外，贝森特还表示，针对债务上限问题的"X日（即债务规模触及上限的日期）" 将于近期公布。国内方面，一季度我国黄金消费量同比下降5.96%，中国黄金ETF持仓增长23.47吨。地缘方面， 普京宣布卫国战争胜利庆典期间（5月8日零时至11日零时）停火72小时。英国媒体称，美国和乌克兰最快将于本 周签署矿产协议。泽连斯基表示经过谈判后，与美国的矿产协议变得"更稳固、更公平"。 期货行情与成交量： 贵金属 ETF 方面，昨日黄金 ETF 持仓为 846.27 吨，较前一交易日下降 2.29 吨。白银 ETF持仓为 14,056.44 吨， 较前一交易日上涨100.43吨。 贵金属套利跟踪： 期现价差： 2025-04-28，国内溢价方面，昨日黄金国内溢价为6.99元/克，白银国内溢价为-483.57元/千克。金银比 价：昨日上期所金银主力合约价格比约为 95.50，较前一交易日上涨 0.45%。外盘金银比价 9 ...

截至报告期末，中百集团的货币资金为8.92亿元，同比下降33.38%；应收账款为5亿元，同比增长 2.97%；有息负债为16.03亿元，同比增长2.54%。货币资金与流动负债的比例仅为18.63%，近3年经营性 现金流均值与流动负债的比例为12.87%，提示公司存在一定的流动性风险。 财务概况 近期，中百集团发布了2025年一季报。报告显示，公司营业总收入为25.66亿元，同比下降21.29%；归 母净利润为-9885.1万元，同比下降303.27%；扣非净利润为-8167.38万元，同比下降413.81%。 费用控制与现金流 近期中百集团（000759）发布2025年一季报，证券之星财报模型分析如下： 盈利能力分析 公司的销售费用、管理费用和财务费用总计为6.46亿元，三费占营收比为25.18%，同比增加了16.3%。 每股经营性现金流为0.13元，同比减少了75.46%。这显示出公司在费用控制方面面临较大压力，同时现 金流状况不容乐观。 从盈利能力来看，中百集团的毛利率为22.86%，同比增加了4.16个百分点，但净利率却为-3.88%，同比 减少了351.06个百分点。这表明尽管公司在控制成本方面有所改 ...

经济衰退担忧持续影响美股 美国关税政策的僵局正在对其经济造成损害并打击投资者的信心。多项经济指标表明，关税政策有可能将美国乃 至全球多地推向经济衰退的边缘。而反复无常的关税政策，不仅没有实现特朗普政府缩减贸易逆差和促使制造业 回流的目标，反而使美国承受通胀攀升和经济下行的压力。 在美国经济增长动能放缓以及政策不确定性增加等因素的拖累下，美股于2月中旬开始见顶回落，直至3月中下旬 才出现一波反弹。到了4月，特朗普政府对非美国家宣布加征关税，给金融市场带来新一轮的冲击，阻断了美股的 反弹之路，使得避险情绪大增，美国金融市场出现历史上较为少见的"股债汇三杀"风险。 近期，不走寻常路的特朗普对美联储的货币政策表示了不满，使得美联储的独立性遭受考验，这意味着政策的不 确定性与经济下行形成了共振，美股短期或出现超跌反弹的情况。但从中期来看，美股跌势可能尚未结束，需要 等到美联储重新启动降息以及关税谈判取得进展才能有所改变。 | 0.30 0.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

紫金天丰期货分析师刘诗尧认为，当前3350-3370美元/盎司区间存在强支撑，"任何回调都是中长期入 场良机"。今年金价已累计上涨26%，主要受益于三大支撑：美中贸易谈判僵局、全球经济增长放缓预 期，以及美联储货币政策与特朗普政府的微妙博弈。其中，全球央行持续购金和ETF持仓量刷新历史新 高，为金价提供了坚实后盾。 贵金属市场呈现分化走势：白银价格在早盘下跌逾1%后出现反弹，铂金、钯金小幅收涨，显示工业金 属需求预期仍存支撑。彭博美元现货指数基本持平。 此外，对于黄金未来走势，分析人士认为，波动可能成为常态。一是美国的关税政策不确定性依然存 在;二是美元虽然反弹，但卖出美元资产也可能在反弹中发生，因为美国信用在这一轮关税战中的确有 损。期货公司混沌天成认为，黄金牛市的风险在于流动性。 短线而言，第一，投机盘的逆转可能出现：根据中国黄金（600916）协会的监测可发现市面流通/实际 消费需求黄金的比值已经达到一定峰值，大量的投机头寸易引发集中抛售风险;第二，市场对于美联储 的降息预期过度乐观，从而忽视了可能出现的流动性风险;第三，估值出现高估情况，金银、金铜和金 油比都达到了危机的情况，但危机尚未出现。 周二国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodity futures is neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - External risks abroad are rising, but the domestic trend remains optimistic. China's Two Sessions in March set a positive tone for the whole year, with more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The government's credit is in an expansion phase, and policies to address "involution - style" competition are worth attention. The official manufacturing PMI in March showed a month - on - month improvement but a year - on - year weakness, and the industry is also differentiated. Considering external tariff pressure, the possibility of additional domestic easing should be monitored [3] - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs exacerbates stagflation trading. Trump's reciprocal tariff order on April 2nd includes a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and higher tariffs on some. It has an impact on China, Vietnam, Thailand, etc. Some products are exempted. The tariff game continues, and it may lead to stagflation in the US economy and put the Fed in a policy dilemma. Attention should be paid to the possible stagflation environment overseas in the long - term [4] - In the short term, be vigilant about the emotional impact on commodities, and in the long term, focus on stagflation - related asset allocation. From the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff increases first affects demand and then inflation. Industrial products like black and non - ferrous metals may be affected by the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may see price increases. Gold is relatively certain due to de - dollarization and potential stagflation overseas [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's government credit is expanding with policies such as raising the deficit rate, increasing special bond limits, and issuing special treasury bonds. The manufacturing PMI in March improved month - on - month but was still weak year - on - year, and the industry is differentiated. External tariff pressure may lead to additional domestic easing [3] Tariff Impact - Trump's reciprocal tariff order on April 2nd includes a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and higher tariffs on some. Some products are exempted. The tariff game continues, and it may lead to stagflation in the US economy and put the Fed in a policy dilemma [4] Commodity Investment Strategy - The overall rating for commodity futures is neutral. In the short term, be vigilant about the impact of tariff events on global assets and liquidity risks. After the market stabilizes, focus on anti - inflation assets like gold and commodities and the allocation opportunities in A - shares. In the long term, pay attention to stagflation - related asset allocation [2][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Trump's recent "reciprocal tariff" executive order, which imposes a 10% minimum tariff on global trade partners and a 34% tariff specifically on China, highlighting the potential economic risks and market reactions associated with this policy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Objectives of the Tariff Policy - The primary goal of the tariff policy is to alleviate the U.S. debt burden by increasing revenue through higher tariffs [5]. - Another objective is to stimulate the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. by making domestic production more financially attractive [6]. - The policy aims to reshape the geopolitical landscape and re-establish U.S. dominance in international trade [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 2.72%, S&P 500 down 3.16%, and Nasdaq falling 4.24% within two days [12]. - Global markets also reacted negatively, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index down 2.6% and Vietnam's stock market plummeting 7% [13]. - The volatility in the markets reflects concerns over the uncertainty of the tariff policy and its long-term implications [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - In the U.S. market, a cautious approach is recommended, avoiding high-valuation tech stocks and focusing on defensive sectors such as utilities and healthcare [24]. - For Hong Kong stocks, it is advised to reduce exposure to export-oriented companies and increase holdings in domestic consumption and financial sectors [34]. - In the A-share market, investors are encouraged to consider undervalued blue-chip stocks and sectors benefiting from domestic demand and technological advancements [34]. Group 4: China's Response and Market Risks - China is likely to implement reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods, particularly in agriculture and energy, while also diversifying its export markets [37]. - Long-term strategies may include tax reductions and infrastructure investments to boost domestic demand, alongside enhancing regional trade cooperation [38]. - Potential risks include increased import costs leading to domestic inflation and the impact of reduced U.S. demand on export-oriented companies [38].