炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 场 别 。 定分红的优质企业,为投资组合提供持续的现金流, 抵御市场波动. 并借助长期复利,力争实现资产的稳健 增值. 是构建投资组合、守护财富的重要底仓资产。 小盘红利·能攻善守 标普红利ETF是市场稀缺的进攻型红利产品,具备"红 利+小盘+行业分散"的特点,兼具小盘股的成长弹性与 高股息资产的防御性。 . 前三大行业 210亿元 银行 16.58% 市值中位数 机械 11.02% 5.18% 轻工制造 8.68% 股息率 数据来源:标普指数公司。 股息更高 · 防守盾 标的指数凭借半年调仓的灵活机制,注重分红稳定性 与盈利持续性,最新股息率5.18%,领先主流红利指 数。 标的指数今年以来涨幅近15%,在A股主流红利指数中 排名第1. 小盘风格在成长主题市场里具备持续获益能 力,市场回暖时更具进攻锐度。 > 标普中国A股红利机会指数今年以来涨幅全市场第1 < 令年以来 令年以来 股息率% 指数名称 涨跌幅% 年化夏普比 5.18 标普A股红利 14.95 1.91 | 红利质量 | 12.23 | 1.44 | 2.47 | | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap style continues to show strong performance, with the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) achieving a year-to-date increase of 56.56%, outperforming its benchmark by 23.57%, indicating robust investor confidence in its enhanced strategy [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of November 3, the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) recorded a 0.05% increase, with a net inflow of approximately 21 million yuan, reflecting ongoing investor interest [1]. - The fund has achieved a stable excess return of over 23% this year, demonstrating its stock selection capability in the small-cap sector [3]. - The fund's performance metrics include a 120-day increase of 31.57% and a 60-day increase of 11.49%, showcasing its resilience in a fluctuating market [2]. Group 2: Market Environment - The current market environment, driven by economic recovery and industrial upgrades, is favorable for small-cap stocks, which typically exhibit higher earnings elasticity during recovery cycles [2]. - Supportive policies for specialized and innovative enterprises are creating a conducive development environment for small and medium-sized enterprises, offering rich opportunities for stock selection [2]. - The CSI 2000 index, which the ETF closely tracks, consists of high-growth and high-elasticity stocks, reinforcing the fund's investment strategy [3].

Core Insights - Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000 index, are experiencing a resurgence in 2025, but they are unlikely to catch up with the S&P 500 index, which has historically outperformed them [1][2] - The Russell 2000 index has risen approximately 10% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has increased over 13% during the same period [1] - Despite a recent rally, small-cap stocks have not outperformed large-cap stocks in a calendar year since 2020, when the Russell 2000 rose 18.4% compared to the S&P 500's 16.3% [1] Performance Analysis - The current bull market has significantly favored large-cap stocks, with the S&P 500 continuously setting new records since early 2024 [2] - Small-cap stocks are benefiting from a favorable economic environment characterized by lower interest rates and robust economic growth, but their recent performance is driven more by optimism than by solid earnings [2][5] Earnings and Valuation - A significant portion of the Russell 2000 consists of companies with poor or no earnings records, with 43% of its constituents not reporting positive earnings [3] - Stocks without reliable earnings in the Russell 2000 have surged by 55% year-to-date, while profitable stocks have only increased by 8% [3] - Analysts expect small-cap stocks to achieve stronger earnings growth in 2025, with an estimated EPS growth of 26.5% for the Russell 2000 compared to 10.3% for the Russell 1000 [5] Market Dynamics - The rebound in small-cap stocks is largely attributed to expectations of improved earnings driven by lower interest rates, which allow these companies to refinance more easily [5][6] - The trend of private equity and venture capital keeping high-growth potential companies private has contributed to the underperformance of small-cap stocks over the past decade [6] - Recent regulatory changes allowing ordinary investors to invest in private equity may further impact the availability and performance of small-cap stocks [6] Investor Sentiment - Despite challenges, long-term investors focused on small-cap stocks remain optimistic, viewing them as a sustainable asset class [7] - There is a trend of financially sound small-cap companies acquiring their portfolios from private equity, providing liquidity to these firms [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Russell 2000 index has shown signs of recovery and potential for growth as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations rise, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards small-cap stocks after a prolonged period of underperformance compared to the S&P 500 index [1][4][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index rose by 2.1% to 2453.36 points during trading, briefly surpassing its historical closing high for the first time since November 2021, before retracting some gains to close up 0.2% [1][4]. - Since the low point in April, the Russell 2000 index has rebounded over 36%, reflecting a significant recovery from previous market fears [9][12]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, marking its first rate cut in nine months, with plans for potentially two more cuts this year [4][5]. - The Fed's policy statement shifted focus from a strong labor market to concerns about slowing job growth and rising unemployment, indicating a new phase of monetary easing [5][11]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a growing optimism among investors regarding small-cap stocks, as they are seen as undervalued compared to large-cap stocks, particularly in light of the Fed's easing policies [7][10]. - Analysts predict that small-cap stocks may outperform large-cap stocks, especially if the economy avoids recession and enters a period of declining interest rates [9][11]. Group 4: Earnings and Valuation - Small-cap companies have reported better-than-expected earnings in the second quarter, which has contributed to a more favorable outlook for their future performance [10][12]. - The expectation of lower interest rates is anticipated to significantly reduce interest expenses for small-cap firms, potentially enhancing their profitability and stock valuations [13].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, which may lead to a reallocation of international funds, particularly towards emerging markets like China [1] - The Chinese stock market has shown an upward trend, with various indices reaching new highs for the year [1] - Kirsty Desson, head of global small-cap stock investment at Aberdeen Investment, believes that the weak dollar cycle will benefit RMB assets, highlighting potential global investment targets in sectors like biotechnology, consumer applications, and AI in healthcare [1] Group 2 - Since 2025, small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index rising 4.83% in the past month, compared to the S&P 500's 2.1% increase [2] - The MSCI global small-cap index has seen a cumulative increase of 3.67% over the past month and over 11% in three months [2] - Small-cap stocks represent about 15% of the global market capitalization but account for approximately 70% of the total number of listed companies globally [2] Group 3 - The large number of small-cap stocks across various industries provides abundant opportunities for global investors, but selecting quality stocks remains a challenge [3] - The investment philosophy focuses on three key aspects: quality, growth, and momentum [3] - High-quality small-cap stocks can be assessed based on competitive advantages, management capabilities, and financial stability [3] Group 4 - Small-cap stocks are generally more sensitive to interest rate changes, with historical data indicating that they tend to outperform large-cap stocks during the early stages of a rate-cutting cycle [4] Group 5 - There has been a continuous increase in net inflows into emerging market equity funds this year, with a significant rise in funds allocated to Chinese stocks [5] - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with high trading volumes and record inflows from foreign investors [5] Group 6 - The current scale of the Chinese market is relatively small, and many foreign investors are still unfamiliar with it [6] - The shift in global investment patterns from dollar-dominated assets to emerging markets, particularly China, is expected to continue [6] - The "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" and "Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect" have provided effective platforms for foreign investors, enhancing their understanding of the Asian market [6] Group 7 - External factors such as the weakening dollar and geopolitical tensions are prompting investors to reassess their asset allocation strategies [7] - Internal factors like policy adjustments, liquidity improvements, and stronger economic fundamentals are expected to support the Chinese market [7] - The valuation of the A-share market remains attractive, with the CSI 300 index's price-to-earnings ratio around 14 times, still below its five-year average [7] Group 8 - The Chinese capital market is witnessing a revaluation in sectors such as biotechnology, consumer applications, and AI in healthcare [7] - The focus on domestic demand and self-sufficiency is becoming increasingly clear, with innovative Chinese companies, including promising small-cap firms, emerging in the capital market [7] Group 9 - There is an expectation for further favorable policies that will provide more signals regarding growth priorities and consumer orientation, which will bolster market confidence and predictability of corporate earnings [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Russell 2000 index, which includes some of the riskiest stocks in the market, has seen a significant surge recently, with multiple Wall Street strategists believing that this rally is just beginning [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index has risen nearly 10% since the end of July, outpacing the S&P 500 index by two times [1] - Analysts predict that the Russell 2000 index could rise another 20% over the next year, while the S&P 500 index is expected to increase by 11% [1] - Despite the recent surge, the Russell 2000 index's cumulative gain in 2025 still lags behind that of the S&P 500 index [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to significantly lower the financing costs for companies within the Russell 2000 index, thereby enhancing their profit margins [1] - The recent inflation and employment data have reinforced optimistic sentiments, leading investors to believe that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts soon [2] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson noted that the Fed's rate cuts could propel the bull market into its "next phase," benefiting small-cap stocks [5] - Over 60% of companies in the Russell 2000 index exceeded earnings expectations for Q2 2024, with average revenue surpassing expectations by 130 basis points [5] - Analysts from Manulife John Hancock Investments highlighted that small-cap stocks have been undervalued compared to other stock categories [5] Group 4: Valuation and Investor Sentiment - The Russell 2000 index's price-to-earnings ratio is slightly above its long-term average, but still presents a lower valuation pressure compared to large-cap stocks [6] - The options market indicates increasing investor confidence in the continued rise of small-cap stocks, with a more bullish positioning compared to the S&P 500 index [6] - Passive funds have started to flow into U.S. small-cap stocks, although there is a caution that signs of economic recovery are needed for sustained growth [6] Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Barclays analysts recommend prioritizing investments in technology and small-cap stocks due to their strong earnings momentum, suggesting that small-cap stocks are facing significant opportunities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of small-cap stocks is evident, with the China Securities 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) seeing a reversal in net outflows as funds begin to enter the market at lower prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Small-cap stock valuations have become significantly more attractive after previous adjustments, leading to a technical indication that the stage of adjustment may be complete, attracting funds that are optimistic about their potential [2][3]. - The market's expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are rising, which could ease funding pressures in emerging markets and enhance risk appetite, particularly benefiting small-cap stocks that are more sensitive to liquidity [2][3]. - Historically, healthy bull markets are characterized by a rotation between large-cap and small-cap stocks, suggesting that after large-cap value stocks stabilize the index, small-cap growth stocks are likely to take the stage, promoting a broader and more sustainable market rally [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current activity in small-cap stocks enhances market profitability and vitality, indicating that investment opportunities are expanding beyond a few leading companies to include more quality small and mid-sized firms that are entering a favorable valuation range [3]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on medium to long-term strategies, balancing high-dividend assets while exploring small-cap stocks with genuine growth potential and technological advantages to capitalize on market rotation opportunities [3]. - The China Securities 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) is highlighted as a potentially superior choice for generating excess returns in this environment [3].

Group 1 - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference may serve as a significant catalyst for the Russell 2000 index, which is primarily composed of small-cap stocks, with potential positive or negative impacts [1] - Historically, small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks during the Fed's rate-cutting cycles in economic downturns, while their performance in non-recessionary rate cuts has been mixed [1] - The potential for rate cuts to provide greater short-term excess returns for small-cap stocks is heightened due to their increased sensitivity to interest rates and refinancing risks over the past 1-2 years [1] Group 2 - The sustainability of a rebound in small-cap stocks following a potential rate cut signal from Powell will likely depend on the earnings backdrop, with second-quarter earnings exceeding expectations [2] - Despite positive second-quarter earnings, the outlook for the second half of the year is considered high, with ongoing downward revisions to small-cap earnings forecasts for Q3 and Q4 since early July [2] - Historical performance of the Russell 2000 factor groups during Fed rate-cutting cycles since 1989 indicates that value factors typically outperform growth factors, while momentum, quality, and cash return factors also show strong performance [2]

Group 1 - The focus of the U.S. stock market is shifting from the "seven giants" tech stocks to small-cap stocks, with the S&P SmallCap 600 and Russell 2000 indices rising by 6% and 7% respectively over the past three months, although still lagging behind the Nasdaq 100's nearly 9% increase [1] - Francis Gannon from Royce Investment Partners believes that value-oriented small-cap stocks will benefit the most from potential interest rate cuts, as these companies hold more floating-rate debt compared to large enterprises, making their financing costs more directly impacted [1] - The recently passed "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. Congress, which includes stimulus and tax reduction measures, may further boost the performance of small-cap companies [1] Group 2 - Bank of America’s strategy team indicates that interest rate cuts could lead to stronger short-term excess returns for small-cap stocks, as they are more sensitive to interest rate changes [2] - The report highlights that during the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, value-oriented small-cap stocks tend to outperform growth stocks, with high-quality stocks outperforming high-risk companies [2] - The S&P 600 index currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of about 17 times, nearly 30% lower than that of the S&P 500, which historically has only seen a 25% discount [2] Group 3 - Market participants believe that small-cap stocks are becoming a new investment stage, especially with the potential for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3]

Core Viewpoint - Small-cap stocks in the U.S. have been overlooked, with initial optimism at the beginning of the year due to anticipated interest rate cuts, but recent analysis indicates a lack of momentum in this sector [1][5]. Performance Analysis - The Russell 2000 index has shown better performance than the S&P 500 since August, but this trend may not last, as the recent gains are attributed to rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts rather than the earnings outlook for small-cap stocks [1][5]. - Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 index has increased by approximately 2%, lagging behind the S&P 500's gain of about 9% [5]. Market Conditions - Small-cap stocks are generally more sensitive to changes in borrowing costs and economic conditions due to their higher debt levels and reliance on external financing [5]. - The proportion of loss-making companies within the Russell 2000 index is at a historical high, contributing to investor hesitance [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that for small-cap stocks to perform well, conditions such as a significant economic downturn or a very strong economy are necessary, which are currently lacking [8]. - Despite the underperformance, there are still optimistic views regarding the potential for the Russell 2000 index to outperform the S&P 500, especially with the ongoing advancements in AI and the potential for a shift in investor focus towards undervalued sectors [8][9]. Valuation Insights - The Russell 2000 index's price-to-earnings ratio is currently above average at 16.3 times, indicating limited opportunities for growth [8]. - The price-to-book ratio of small-cap stocks is lower than that of large-cap stocks, suggesting they may be undervalued [9]. IPO Activity - Since the beginning of 2025, there have been 95 IPOs in the U.S. raising $12.9 billion, compared to 73 IPOs raising $16 billion in 2024, indicating a potential increase in the quality of small-cap stocks [9].