1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： 港股市场策略周报 2025.6.9-2025.6.15 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 2 n 本周市场受地缘政治扰动，呈现出先扬后抑的走势，本周略微收涨。恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 +0.89%/+0.42%/-0.89%。本周市场一级行业板块多数收涨，医疗保健业继续保持强势，周涨幅超8.5%，排在 第一；原材料业涨幅排在第二，周涨幅近7.0%。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点升至74%，估值水平超5年均值。 l 港股市场宏观环境： n 基本面：5月国内通胀表现仍偏弱，后续或继续承压；5月社融信贷数据继续不及预期，私人部门融资仍然偏弱。 n 资金面：5月美国CPI继续不及预期，关税对物价影响低于预期，或主要由于前期美国抢进口后的备货较为充足。 l 港股市场展望： n 基本面：国内通胀表现仍较弱，经济复苏的内生动能仍然偏弱，外需承压下内需仍待政策面托举； ...

港股收盘，恒生指数涨0.70%，恒生科技指数涨1.15%。港股科技ETF(159751)收盘上涨0.78%，恒生港 股通ETF(159318)收盘上涨0.77%。山东墨龙（002490）涨超30%，众安在线涨超12%，小米集团涨超 4%；药明生物跌超5%。 无需港股通，A股账户就能T+0买港股>> ...

Market Overview - The overall trend of AH stocks in the past six months can be summarized as "gathering market sentiment amid divergence, with gradual valuation recovery amid fluctuations" [1] - Since the pandemic, the stock market has been in a long-term adjustment due to risk control and the downturn in the real estate cycle [1] - After September 24, there has been a noticeable change in market style, with effective policies boosting confidence and altering the characteristics of a shrinking market [1] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese stock market has a high allocation value globally, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 dividend yield remaining above 1.5%, indicating strong appeal for large incremental funds like insurance [1][2] - The continuous decline in bank deposit interest rates is expected to drive savings into the stock market as fixed deposits mature [1] - The return of overseas funds to the Chinese market is evident, with Hong Kong stocks showing significant recovery since the beginning of the year [2] Economic Context - The controllable economic downturn risk suggests that the current dividend yield is unlikely to experience a significant decline [2] - The major reasons for the significant pullback in A-shares since 2021 include economic downturn and deflation expectations, which are less pronounced compared to developed markets [2] - The stabilization of economic expectations is seen as a major positive factor for the stock market [4] Sector Analysis - Assets with strong earnings certainty and high dividend nature are expected to yield absolute returns, attracting low-risk preference funds [3] - Industries that are likely to see opportunities before the economic bottom is confirmed include innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, AI-related sectors, non-bank financials, and more [3] - Many downstream industries are gradually emerging from profit troughs due to price adjustments and technological breakthroughs, despite the year-on-year PPI hitting a new low [3] Conclusion - The risk-reward ratio in the stock market has become particularly evident after years of macro risks, with the current bottom position of the market not requiring a significant economic rebound for valuation recovery [4] - Patience and bottom-up research are essential for achieving favorable results in the current market environment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Views - The market is experiencing high volatility with significant sector differentiation, particularly with innovative drugs performing strongly while the automotive sector has seen notable declines [1][2] - Overall, the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.4%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 0.9% [1] - The report highlights that 19 industries within the Hong Kong Stock Connect saw gains, while 11 experienced losses, with the most significant increases in the comprehensive, pharmaceutical, and defense sectors [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,893, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.4% and a year-to-date increase of 19.1% [12] - The small-cap stocks outperformed mid and large-cap stocks, with the Hang Seng Small Cap Index rising by 4.5% [1] Fund Flow - There was a significant outflow of funds from the automotive sector, with an average daily outflow of HKD 17.7 billion, while the pharmaceutical sector saw an inflow of HKD 4.8 billion [2] - The overall average daily fund intensity for Hong Kong Stock Connect components was -8.0 billion HKD, indicating a shift from the previous week’s positive inflow [2] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a substantial upward revision in earnings per share (EPS) expectations, particularly for the automotive sector, which saw a 24.3% increase [3] - In total, 26 industries had their EPS forecasts revised upward, while only 3 experienced downward revisions [3] Sector Performance - The comprehensive sector led with a 19.2% increase, followed by pharmaceuticals at 8.5% and defense at 8.1% [16] - The automotive sector, however, faced a decline of 4.4%, reflecting ongoing challenges within the industry [16]

Real Estate Industry - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, divided into three phases: housing transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [3] - The core point for entering a positive cycle is the upward shift in housing price expectations due to changes in supply and demand structure, which should be a key signal for market observation [3] - Policy measures need to be more decisive to facilitate stabilization, focusing on adjusting supply and demand structures and mitigating risks from enterprises [3] - The probability of a "medium policy" scenario for the real estate fundamentals in 2025 is high, with sales performance potentially exceeding expectations due to the prolonged effects of the 926 policy [3] - A recovery in total housing sales to historically reasonable levels could lead to significant upward potential, with new housing transaction volumes likely to see greater recovery [3] Strategy - The A-share market has shown signs of improvement in early 2025, but external uncertainties are rising, impacting market dynamics [8] - The expected market rhythm for the second half of 2025 is "steady first, then rise," with upward potential dependent on comprehensive policy support [9] - Investment focus should be on certainty in uncertain environments, including opportunities from capacity cycles, high-growth sectors with low correlation to economic cycles, and dividend-paying sectors [9] Macroeconomy - The GDP growth rate has improved while prices remain weak, indicating a widening demand gap due to restrained policy measures [18] - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is expected to continue narrowing, contributing to a "quasi-balance" recovery [18] - The core CPI inflation is anticipated to improve slightly in the second half of the year, but overall inflation is expected to remain weak [18] New Consumption Trends - Despite overall consumption being insufficient, new consumption trends are emerging, characterized by a shift towards quality and rational spending [23] - The Z generation is becoming a key driver of the new consumption wave, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [23] - The potential for consumption in lower-tier cities is increasing as the drag from real estate weakens [23]

Group 1 - The fund company announced a limit on daily subscriptions, conversions, and regular investments for its index fund I class shares to RMB 1 million starting from June 6 [1][3] - Other funds under the company, including the technology and healthcare index funds, also implemented the same limit of RMB 1 million for their I class shares, while A and C class shares remain unrestricted [3][4] - The reason for the limit is to "protect the interests of fund shareholders," preventing sudden large inflows that could disrupt investment strategies and lead to potential arbitrage opportunities [3][4] Group 2 - Industry experts believe that limiting large subscriptions helps to mitigate the impact of institutional funds, which could lead to rapid fund size expansion and affect strategy execution [4] - The recent positive performance of the Hong Kong stock market has attracted more institutional funds for short-term trading, particularly in I class shares designed for institutional investors with lower fees [4]

中金展望2025下半年港股：震荡市中寻结构性机会 金十数据6月10日讯，中金公司认为，上半年，港股市场显著跑赢A股，全球表现居前，展现出韧性。 但问题在于反弹呈现"脉冲式冲高回落"，且上涨高度集中（仅约35%的个股跑赢指数），近期市场再度 显露疲态。下半年，港股市场将面临过剩流动性的"资金盛"和有限回报的"资产荒"的局面。预计整体指 数将维持区间震荡，结构性行情仍是主线。 ...

港股市场策略周报 2025.6.2-2025.6.8 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： l 港股市场宏观环境： l 港股市场展望： 2 n 本周中美关税摩擦继续缓和，结合政策加力的预期，港股市场本周迎来反弹，恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 +2.20%/+2.16%/+2.25%。本周市场一级行业板块多数收涨，原材料业涨幅排在第一，周涨幅超5.5%；医疗 保健业继续保持强势，周涨幅超4.0%，排在第二。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点升至72.3%，估值水平略超5年均值。 n 基本面：央行本周打破惯例，在6月初首次开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作，释放明确宽松信号。 n 资金面：5月美国非农虽较上月走弱，但超市场预期，就业市场仍有韧性，市场对于美联储降息的预期继续承压。 n 基本面：经济复苏的内生动能仍然偏弱，外需承压下内需仍待政策面托举；政策面： 货币政策持续宽松加 ...

Group 1: Important News - Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call with US President Donald Trump [1] - On June 6, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 10,000 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [1] Group 2: Individual Stock News - Jinju Group (02009.HK) won a residential land bid in Haidian District, Beijing for 3.364 billion yuan [2] - Xinhua Pharmaceutical (00719.HK) obtained a drug registration certificate for ethyl ester soft capsules of eicosapentaenoic acid [2] - JINGRUI Holdings (01862.HK) reported a contract sales amount of approximately 387 million yuan for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of 50.76% [2] - Hongyang Real Estate (01996.HK) recorded a cumulative contract sales amount of 2.47 billion yuan for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of 39.77% [2] - Sunac China (01918.HK) achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 16 billion yuan for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of 35.28% [2] - Zhengrong Real Estate (06158.HK) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 1.963 billion yuan for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of 30.64% [2] - Dongfeng Motor Group (00489.HK) reported cumulative automobile sales of 672,800 units for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 17.1% [2] - Heng Rui Medicine (01276.HK) and its subsidiaries received clinical trial approval notices for SHR-A1811 injection, adalimumab injection, and fumaric acid famotidine capsules [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has strategic allocation value from a medium to long-term perspective, with expectations for relative performance improvement [1] Group 1: Market Responsibilities - The Hong Kong stock market plays three important roles: facilitating companies' overseas expansion, enabling capital repatriation, and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The main driving factor for the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of the year is expected to be profit growth, with high volatility anticipated in the third quarter [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - High dividend sectors and essential consumer goods are recommended as core holdings, while opportunities for increasing allocations include technology (especially hard tech, internet, and AI), consumption (potential recovery in internet consumption, pharmaceuticals, and mass consumer goods like personal care, dairy, and agriculture), and large financials (local Hong Kong stocks and Chinese stocks) [1]