Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 7.77 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 707 million RMB, down 34% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter, which aligns with expectations [1] - The coal chemical cost continues to improve, and new projects are gradually advancing, supporting the company's growth potential [3] - The report anticipates a recovery in product prices and demand, which could enhance profitability in the future [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 7.77 billion RMB, with a net profit of 707 million RMB, both showing declines compared to the previous year and quarter [1] - The overall gross margin for Q1 was 16.4%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.3 percentage points [2] Product Segments - The acetic acid and derivatives segment saw a sales volume decrease of 8% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter, while the new materials segment experienced a 23% year-on-year increase in sales volume [2] - The fertilizer segment reported a 37% year-on-year increase in sales volume, indicating strong demand despite price pressures [2] Cost and Pricing Outlook - As of April 25, 2025, the prices for key raw materials like urea and DMF showed slight fluctuations, with some products experiencing price improvements due to inventory digestion [3] - The report notes that the cost pressures from coal have eased, with reference prices for thermal coal and anthracite at 570 RMB/ton and 912 RMB/ton, respectively [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 3.8 billion RMB, 5.0 billion RMB, and 5.8 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to weak product demand [4] - The target price for the company is set at 25.34 RMB, based on a 14x PE ratio for 2025, indicating growth potential from new projects and product competitiveness [4][8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures prices fluctuated widely on Thursday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1758 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.79%. The spot market was mostly stable, with partial price cuts. Urea supply increased, and enterprise inventories rose by 17.52% this week, exceeding 1 million tons. Demand was limited, with agricultural demand delayed and industrial demand mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to have a short - term shock trend, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and downstream procurement efforts [1]. - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated strongly on Thursday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1380 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.07%. The spot market was mostly stable, with partial rebounds in traders' quotes. The supply reduction of soda ash was difficult to reverse the loose pattern, and the supply volatility remained high. Demand was average, and downstream enterprises had a low willingness to stock up on a large scale. The market is expected to have a short - term shock trend, and attention should be paid to device changes, downstream replenishment efforts, and macro - sentiment [1]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated weakly on Thursday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1135 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.96%. The spot market price rebounded slightly. The supply had little impact on the market, and enterprises' inventories increased slightly. Demand was limited, but the spot trading atmosphere improved recently. The market is expected to have a short - term shock trend, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, policies, and spot transactions [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Urea**: The futures price was 1758 yuan/ton, down 0.79%. The spot price in Shandong and Henan was 1830 yuan/ton. Supply increased to 19.63 tons per day, and enterprise inventories rose by 17.52% to over 1 million tons. Demand was limited, and the market is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price was 1380 yuan/ton, up 2.07%. The spot price was mostly stable. The industry's operating rate decreased by 0.06 percentage points, and the weekly output decreased by 0.06%. Supply pressure was slightly relieved, and demand was average. The market is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Glass**: The futures price was 1135 yuan/ton, down 0.96%. The spot price increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1281 yuan/ton. The daily melting volume was stable at 15.78 tons, and enterprises' inventories increased slightly. Demand was limited, but spot transactions improved. The market is expected to be volatile [1]. Market Information - **Urea**: On April 24, the futures warehouse receipt was 4138, down 25 from the previous day. The daily output was 19.63 tons, an increase of 0.28 tons from the previous day. The operating rate was 85.13%, up 1.36 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory as of April 23 was 106.50 tons, up 17.52% from last week [4][5]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: On April 24, the soda ash futures warehouse receipt was 4030, down 260 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 2546; the glass futures warehouse receipt was 2541, unchanged. The soda ash industry's capacity utilization rate was 89.44%, down 0.06 percentage points. The output was 75.51 tons, down 0.06%. The inventory was 169.10 tons, down 0.11%. The glass market average price was 1281 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. The daily output was 15.78 tons, unchanged. The inventory as of April 24 was 6547.33 million heavy boxes, up 0.61% [7][8]. Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of urea and soda ash contracts, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the futures price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][11][13][18][20][22]. Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different commodity research and have rich experience and many honors [25].

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 建筑装饰 证券研究报告 基建投资景气上行，顺周期煤化工有望贯穿全年主线 核心观点 本周 CS 建筑上涨 1.54%，沪深 300 上涨 1.67%，建筑跑输大盘 0.12%。中小 市值转型的相关标的涨幅居前，传统基建央企仍表现偏弱。传统基建层面， 25 年 1-3 月专项债密集发行，基建投资延续发力，且水泥、沥青等建材高 频数据进一步验证景气上行。顺周期方面，Q1 较多煤化工项目进入前期密 集开工阶段，随着招投标工作的深入推进，建议继续关注相关企业的订单 及业绩弹性，重点推荐硫磺回收领域拿单优势凸显的三维化学。新兴业务 板块，建议继续关注与算力、IDC 等相关的投资机会，以及部分中小市值建 筑公司的转型机遇，主题层面建议继续关注西南水电及国际工程相关品种。 多维度验证 Q1 基建景气上行，煤化工项目进入密集开工阶段 1）从投资数据来看：25 年 1-3 月狭义基建、广义基建投资同比分别+5.8%、 +11.5%，3 月单月同比分别+5.9%、+12.6%（增速环比+0.3、+2.6pct），细 分项中，传统交通运输类投资强度增长仍较为有限，而水电燃热、水利投 资保持高增长态势，1- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating strong investment attractiveness with a projected dividend yield of 6% for 2025 based on an average payout ratio of 84% for 2023-2024 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed a slight revenue decline but is expected to accelerate significantly starting Q2 2025, driven by the completion of major projects and increased contract liabilities [1][3]. - The gross margin improved to 20.6% in Q1 2025, up by 0.78 percentage points year-on-year, while operating cash flow remained robust with a net inflow of 1.3 billion yuan [2]. - New contracts signed in Q1 2025 reached 300 million yuan, a staggering increase of 7592% year-on-year, indicating strong future revenue potential [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue was 550 million yuan, a 5.5% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 52 million yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to grow by 44%, 35%, and 36% respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 0.58, 0.79, and 1.07 yuan [4]. - The company reported a significant increase in contract liabilities, up 70% from the beginning of the year, indicating strong future revenue recognition [1][2].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump has exceeded expectations, reinforcing the logic of domestic demand recovery. The focus is on infrastructure and key strategic industries like coal chemical investments, which are expected to receive policy support [2][21] - The construction index rose by 0.13% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.57 percentage points, with significant gains in small and mid-cap transformation stocks [1][31] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in local government bond issuance, indicating potential for local investment release despite external demand pressures [4][21] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Impact and Domestic Demand - Trump's new tariffs, including a 10% baseline tariff and higher rates for major trade deficit countries, are expected to suppress overseas and manufacturing investments while boosting domestic demand [2][14] - The previous trade friction period saw a decline in manufacturing and infrastructure investments, with real estate becoming a key contributor to economic stability [3][21] Section 2: Market Performance - The construction index's performance this week was driven by sectors such as professional engineering and building design, with notable stock gains from companies like Shanshui Bide and Zhongyan Dadi [1][31] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on infrastructure-related stocks, particularly in high-growth regions like Tibet and Xinjiang, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [21][28] - Coal chemical projects are expected to see significant investment, with recommendations for companies like Sanwei Chemical and China Chemical [28] - Companies with production layouts in North America or Mexico are likely to benefit, with recommendations including China Jushi and Puyang Refractories [28] Section 4: Fiscal Policy and Investment Opportunities - The first quarter of 2025 saw local government bond issuance reach approximately 2.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 80%, indicating a strong fiscal push for infrastructure investment [4][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural and regional characteristics in infrastructure investment, particularly in water conservancy and transportation sectors [38]

基础化工/化学原料 宝丰能源（600989.SH） 煤价下跌煤化工受益，关注内蒙及新疆产能成长 2025 年 03 月 04 日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 煤价下跌致煤化工受益，关注内蒙及新疆产能成长 自 2024 年 10 月国内煤价持续走低，截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日秦港 Q5500 动力末 煤平仓价 690 元/吨，较 2024 年 10 月初降 177 元/吨；2025 年 1-2 月秦港均价 745 元/吨，环比 2024Q4 均价-9.4%。受益于成本端煤价下滑，公司烯烃及焦炭业务 盈利有望受益，我们维持 2024 年盈利预测并上调 2025-2026 年盈利预测，预计 2024-2026 年归母净利润 63.6/127.4/136.4 亿元（前值为 63.6/109.5/121.2 亿元）， 同比+12.5%/+100.4%/+7.1%；EPS 为 0.87/1.74/1.86 元，对应当前股价 PE 为 19.6/9.8/9.1 倍。公司盈利受益于煤化工成本下降与 ...

宝丰能源（600989.SH） 煤价下跌煤化工受益，关注内蒙及新疆产能成长 2025 年 03 月 04 日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | 张绪成（分析师） | | --- | zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 基础化工/化学原料 煤价下跌致煤化工受益，关注内蒙及新疆产能成长 自 2024 年 10 月国内煤价持续走低，截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日秦港 Q5500 动力末 煤平仓价 690 元/吨，较 2024 年 10 月初降 177 元/吨；2025 年 1-2 月秦港均价 745 元/吨，环比 2024Q4 均价-9.4%。受益于成本端煤价下滑，公司烯烃及焦炭业务 盈利有望受益，我们维持 2024 年盈利预测并上调 2025-2026 年盈利预测，预计 2024-2026 年归母净利润 63.6/127.4/136.4 亿元（前值为 63.6/109.5/121.2 亿元）， 同比+12.5%/+100.4%/+7.1%；EPS 为 0.87/1.74/1.86 元，对应当前股价 PE 为 19.6/9.8/9.1 倍。公司盈 ...