Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the growing interest in dividend and value stocks in the A-share market, driven by policies encouraging long-term capital allocation [1][12] - The "Redemption Value Index" is highlighted for its strict selection criteria, requiring companies to have a consistent dividend growth over three years, thus avoiding high dividend traps [5][6][10] - The index's performance is noted to be superior, with an annualized return of approximately 8.7% from the end of 2009 to the end of 2024, indicating its stability and attractiveness for long-term investors [8][12] Group 2 - The articles discuss the current market's return to fundamental pricing logic, with core assets and dividend styles showing strong defensive characteristics amid economic uncertainties [2][3] - The analysis of dividend indices reveals significant differences in their selection criteria and industry exposure, with the "Redemption Value Index" focusing on stable cash flow sectors like coal and banking [4][5][7] - The investment value of high-dividend assets is reinforced by the current macroeconomic environment, where the imbalance between asset and liability supply favors dividend-paying stocks [13][14] Group 3 - The articles suggest that the "Redemption Value Index" aligns well with the "China Special Valuation" theme, as a significant portion of its constituents are state-owned enterprises, making it attractive for long-term institutional investors [11][12] - The index's design aims to mitigate risks associated with traditional dividend strategies by emphasizing sustainable and growing dividends, thus enhancing its appeal to risk-averse investors [9][10] - Recommendations for investors include diversifying into dividend ETFs with staggered payout schedules to ensure consistent cash flow, catering to conservative investment strategies [15]

证 券 研 究 报 告 哪些红利方向性价比更高？ —— 写在2024年报披露后 证券分析师：陆灏川 A0230520080001 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 牟瑾瑾 A0230524100002 王胜 A0230511060001 研究支持： 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 2025.5.12 主要结论 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ A股分红比例继续上行，分红节奏日渐平滑。A股2024年报已披露完毕，按公告金额计算，A股整体分红比例延续升势，由 2023年的41.9%继续上行至44.8%，以至于A股整体在净利润总额较2023年下降2.0%的背景下，实际分红金额增加了4.8%。 结构上，银行分红率稳定在30%附近（29.3%->29.5%），其他实体类上市公司的分红比例从50.1%大幅上行至55.6%，使 得一批公司突破股息率临界线，进入红利投资者视野。此外，随着"新国九条"落地，2024年中期分红显著增加，金额占全 年比例分别达25.2%（2023年仅为9.3%）。中期分红的普及，将弱化红利板块的日历效应，进一步提升红利配置价值。 ◼ 我们选择了25个具备红利特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of dividend stocks versus technology stocks in the context of the current investment environment, emphasizing the importance of understanding the long-term investment returns and the factors influencing them [2]. Group 1: Dividend Stocks vs. Technology Stocks - The investment in technology stocks is often seen as seeking high returns, while dividend stocks are viewed as a means of preserving capital. However, the actual investment return is a function of both the win rate and the payout ratio [2]. - Long-term investment in technology stocks may not necessarily yield better returns than accumulating dividends in traditional industries, as the latter can provide more stable income over time [2]. Group 2: Key Variables Influencing Investment Returns - The critical variables affecting investment returns include the longevity of the company, long-term Return on Equity (ROE), long-term dividend levels, and the valuation at the time of purchase [2][4]. - Companies that have reached a stable growth phase and increase their dividend rates can help maintain a reasonable ROE [2]. Group 3: Longevity of Companies - The probability of a company maintaining excellence over the long term is low, and traditional industry leaders have a higher likelihood of long-term survival compared to emerging industries, which are often characterized by rapid changes and intense competition [4]. Group 4: Long-term ROE Expectations - Investors often have conservative expectations regarding long-term ROE and growth rates. Many high-quality companies that are temporarily undervalued can still meet internal return requirements with modest ROE and growth [5]. Group 5: Valuation Considerations - While high ROE and rapid growth are desirable, the valuation must also be reasonable. Emerging industries often receive inflated valuations, which can lead to investment pitfalls [6]. - Low valuation does not guarantee sufficient margin of safety, as it may result from unexpected declines in fundamentals. Investors should consider multiple scenarios when assessing future profitability [7]. Group 6: Investment Strategy in Adverse Conditions - In challenging market conditions for dividend investments, the focus should be on optimizing the portfolio, increasing the margin of safety, and enhancing internal return rates, rather than being overly concerned with stock prices [9]. - Value investing is presented as a principle rather than a strategy, with the emphasis on improving the probability of success under low prior probabilities [9].

Core Viewpoint - The essence of value investing lies in assessing the intrinsic value of a company relative to its market price, emphasizing a significant margin of safety in investment decisions [2][4]. Group 1: Value Investing Principles - Value investing requires viewing stocks as parts of businesses and providing an absolute valuation, which distinguishes it from index investing [2]. - The concept of safety margin is crucial, where an investor must determine the intrinsic value of a stock before making a purchase [7]. Group 2: Dividend Investing - Dividend investing can evolve into value investing if the dividend yield significantly exceeds government bond rates, focusing on income rather than outperforming the market [4]. - The Gordon dividend model can be applied to perpetual dividend portfolios to assess their value [5]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The long-term average annual return of the CSI 300 is approximately 10%, which sets a benchmark for evaluating dividend growth rates [6]. - If the goal is not to outperform the market, a lower discount rate can be applied, making it easier to achieve reasonable growth expectations [6]. Group 4: Valuation and Safety Margin - Clear valuation is essential for determining safety margins, with examples illustrating the need for significant discounts to intrinsic value when investing in high-profile stocks like Moutai [7]. - A rough estimate of intrinsic value should be established, with a target of purchasing at a significant discount, ideally below 50% of the estimated value [7]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The Snowball Three-Factor Method promotes long-term investment and asset allocation through diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve diversified returns and risk mitigation [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Ordos (600295.SH) has reported its Q1 2025 financial results, highlighting significant institutional investor activity and changes in shareholding patterns [1] Group 2 - As of April 30, 2025, a total of 19 institutional investors disclosed holdings in Ordos A-shares, with a combined holding of 1.659 billion shares, accounting for 59.26% of Ordos' total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors include Inner Mongolia Ordos Cashmere Group Co., Ltd., China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. - SSE Dividend ETF, and others, with their combined holding ratio reaching 59.19%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 3 - In the public fund sector, six public funds increased their holdings, including China Merchants CSI Dividend ETF and E Fund CSI Dividend ETF, with an increase ratio of 0.10% [2] - Five public funds reduced their holdings, including Tianhong Dividend Smart Selection Mixed A and Guotai Junan Dividend Quantitative Selection Mixed A, with a slight decrease in holding ratio [2] - Four new public funds disclosed their holdings this quarter, including CITIC Prudential Dividend Navigation Quantitative Stock A and others [2] - A total of 228 public funds did not disclose their holdings this quarter, including Southern CSI 500 ETF and others [2] Group 4 - In the insurance capital sector, two insurance funds reduced their holdings, including China Ping An Life Insurance Co., Ltd. - Dividend - Individual Insurance Dividend, with a slight decrease in holding ratio [2] - In terms of foreign investment, one foreign fund, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, reduced its holdings by 0.30% compared to the previous quarter [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, reflecting challenges in the coal and electricity markets, but maintains a strong dividend outlook due to its coal-electricity integration strategy [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 69.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.95 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 11.71 billion yuan, a decline of 28.9% year-on-year [1] Production and Sales Summary - The company produced 82.5 million tons of commodity coal in Q1 2025, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [1] - Coal sales volume was 99.3 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year, with self-produced coal sales at 78.5 million tons, a decrease of 4.7% [1] - The average selling price of coal (excluding tax) was 519 yuan/ton, down 12.2% year-on-year, with self-produced coal priced at 484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.4% [1][2] Cost and Margin Summary - The cost of coal per ton was 363 yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year, while the cost of self-produced coal increased slightly to 195.8 yuan/ton, up 2.3% year-on-year [2] - Total coal revenue was 51.6 billion yuan, a decline of 25.7% year-on-year, with operating costs at 36.1 billion yuan, down 26.8% [2] - Total gross profit from coal was 15.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.8% year-on-year [2] Electricity Generation Summary - Total electricity generation was 50.42 billion kWh, down 10.7% year-on-year, with total electricity sales at 47.47 billion kWh, also down 10.7% [2] - The average electricity price was 0.386 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, while the cost per kWh was 0.354 yuan, down approximately 3.1% [2] - Total electricity revenue was 18.3 billion yuan, down 15.7% year-on-year, with electricity costs at 16.8 billion yuan, down 13.5% [3] Dividend and Future Outlook - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.26 yuan per share for 2024, yielding a dividend rate of 5.8% based on the April 25 closing price [3] - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of 65% for 2025-2027, an increase from the previous 60% [3] - The acquisition of Hangjin Energy is expected to enhance resource capabilities, with significant coal and power generation assets [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 297.6 billion yuan, 289.5 billion yuan, and 289.4 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 12.04%, 2.73%, and 0.03% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 48.5 billion yuan, 47.5 billion yuan, and 47.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -17.4%, -1.9%, and +0.12% [4] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 15.86, 16.17, and 16.15 for the respective years, with price-to-book ratios of 1.75, 1.70, and 1.66 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The power sector is experiencing a fundamental improvement, with a recovery in electricity consumption growth and a narrowing decline in thermal power generation, alongside an increase in the contribution of clean energy [1][3]. Group 1: Electricity Consumption and Generation - In March, the national electricity consumption growth rate rebounded to 4.8%, with the secondary industry growth rate lower than the industrial added value growth rate, possibly due to a decline in electricity demand from high-energy-consuming industries [1]. - The total power generation in March increased by 1.8% year-on-year, with thermal power generation declining by 2.3% year-on-year but improving by 3.5 percentage points month-on-month [1]. - New installed capacity in January-February reached 55 GW, with wind and solar power contributing 9.3 GW and 39.5 GW respectively [1]. Group 2: Pricing and Market Dynamics - Capacity prices have slightly increased, with a year-on-year rise of 23.3%, 11.9%, and 6.1% in various provinces, offsetting the decline in electricity prices [2]. - The price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal has decreased to 663 RMB per ton, down 163 RMB year-on-year, while domestic LNG prices have dropped by approximately 20% since the beginning of the year [2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The power sector is expected to transition from a weak dividend to a strong dividend, with a notable recovery in earnings per share (EPS) expectations [3]. - The sector is characterized by its defensive attributes, with stable demand and a high degree of market management, as evidenced by over 20 companies announcing increased dividend payouts for 2024 [3]. - Three investment portfolios are recommended: (1) Defensive water and regional energy assets; (2) Elastic thermal power stocks; (3) Policy-driven green energy investments [4].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·金融产品 金融产品跟踪周报 权益 ETF 系列：震荡上涨，大盘风格相对占 优 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 观点：震荡上涨，大盘风格相对占优。 ◼ 基金配置建议： 风险提示：1）模型基于历史数据测算，未来存在失效风险；2）宏观经济 不及预期；3）发生重大预期外的宏观事件。 2025 年 04 月 19 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 3% 10% 17% 24% 31% 38% 45% 52% 59% 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《深化寿险代理人体制改革，佣金递 延与报行合一规范渠道发展》 2025-04-18 《"中国版平准基金"横空出世，维 2025-04-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 22 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 护资本市场平稳运行》 -11% -4% 2024/4/19 2024/8/18 2024/12/17 2025/4/17 ◼ A ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the grid trading strategy as a method to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][15] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include selecting on-market assets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate [3][15] Group 2 - The report highlights the focus on specific ETFs for grid trading, including the National Defense ETF (512670.SH), which benefits from China's strengthening military capabilities and ongoing innovations in defense technology [5][16] - The Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (159333.SZ) is noted for its high dividend yield, supported by government policies encouraging long-term capital investment and stable dividend mechanisms [6][19] - The National Goods ETF (561130.SH) aligns with government initiatives to boost consumption, focusing on domestic brands and sectors benefiting from consumer upgrades [7][20] - The Morgan MSCI ETF (515770.SH) is positioned as a tool for global investors to access Chinese core assets, reflecting the current economic cycle and policy advantages in China [9][24]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 从历史数据看，指数增强基金的平均收益，多数年份是可以跑赢对应指数的。 但其中也有一部分跑输了指数，如果不谨慎挑选的话，也有可能买到的基金，实际上跑不赢指数。 那应该如何挑选优秀的指数增强基金呢？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了指数增强基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 指数增强 」领取哦 ～ ◆◆◆ 不过，红利也有低迷的阶段。比如到了2019 -2020年，成长风格强势。 当时成长风格指数两年翻倍，但红利指数只 是微涨，大幅跑输市场，红利类基金也被投 资者嫌弃。 那么，什么情况下，比较适合考虑红利类品 种呢? 对普通投资者,红利投资有两种定位。 (1) 把红利品种，作为投资组合中的价值 风格部分。 因为红利是典型的价值风格品种，熊市比较 抗跌，牛市的时候进攻性会弱一些。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 可以跟成长风格品种搭配。 (2) 看中红利指数的分红现金流。 低估的时候买入，此时股息率也比较高，长 期持有获得现金流。 此时就不在乎红利导不是跑赢古场，口更和 ...