行业 铜期货日报 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜探底回升，日内沪铜主力最低跌至 84900，总持仓下降 4052，美元指数在 100 上方运行施压铜价，同时隔夜海外股市大跌进一步加大市场抛售情绪，铜价回到 10 月中旬震荡区间。日内现货跌 1255 至 85335，现货升水涨 25，下游短期集中 补库。现货进口亏损缩窄至 520 附近，LME0-3contango 结构扩大至 30.4 ...

美元指数技术分析 技术指标方面，RSI接近45显示偏弱动能，而日线均线（20日与50日均线）呈现上升放缓后趋平，意味 着短期内多空力量均衡，缺乏明显方向性。 若DXY有效跌破100.00支撑，将打开下行空间，可能回探99.50–99.30区域；若反弹并突破101.00–101.20 阻力区，则可能短线回升至101.50。 整体来看，美元指数在日线仍呈震荡偏弱格局，需关注美联储发言及政府关门进展对市场的即时影响。 周四（11月6日）美元指数在欧盘中下跌至99.925美元承压的主要原因是美国联邦政府关门已超过一个 月，成为历史上最长的一次。 自10月1日以来，由于国会未能就财政预算达成一致，政府停摆持续存在，财政和经济的不确定性加大 了美元的下行压力。参议院在周四没有安排就众议院已通过的复工法案进行投票，此前该法案已连续14 次未能推进。 官方就业数据因政府关门延迟发布的背景下，市场将目光转向ADP私营部门就业数据。10月美国私人部 门新增就业42,000个岗位，明显好于前值修正后的减少29,000个，也高于市场预期的25,000个。 这一数据为美元提供了一定支撑，同时显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。联储方面，在连续两次 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar index, surpassing the 100 mark, is attributed to a combination of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and external factors such as tightening dollar liquidity and the depreciation of non-US currencies, particularly the Japanese yen [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The dollar index's rise since mid-September is linked to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance during the October meeting, which emphasized economic resilience and persistent inflation risks, leading to a decline in rate cut expectations [1][2]. - Analysts note that the current economic environment differs significantly from previous periods, with a lack of clear economic data making the market more susceptible to the Fed's hawkish comments [2][3]. Group 2: Currency Movements and External Influences - The depreciation of the Japanese yen, influenced by the election of Fumio Kishida as Japan's Prime Minister and subsequent fiscal and monetary easing, has contributed to the dollar's strength [2]. - The widening yield spread between US and Japanese bonds following the Fed's meeting has also facilitated carry trades, further supporting the dollar's rise [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook for the Dollar - Analysts suggest that while the dollar may have short-term upward potential, the current situation does not indicate a new long-term appreciation cycle for the dollar [3]. - Market expectations for the Fed's December meeting indicate a probability of maintaining interest rates, which could influence the dollar's performance depending on employment data and inflation trends [3]. - The potential for increased dollar supply due to the Fed's decision to halt balance sheet reduction could weaken the dollar's upward momentum [3]. Group 4: External Economic Conditions - Japan's high core inflation may provide the Bank of Japan with room to raise interest rates, which could limit the extent of the dollar's strength [4].

Group 1 - The US dollar index reported at 100.16, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% [1] - The exchange rate for one US dollar is approximately 7.145 Chinese yuan [1] - The offshore Chinese yuan is trading at about 7.1279 per US dollar [3] Group 2 - The exchange rate for one Australian dollar is approximately 0.6508 US dollars [5] - One euro is equivalent to about 8.1962 yuan [5] - The forecast indicates that the US dollar may continue to weaken in the fourth quarter, influenced by global economic data and monetary policy adjustments [7]

Group 1: Dollar Index Movement - On November 4, the dollar index broke through the 100-point mark, reaching its highest level since August 2025[2] - The increase in the dollar index is supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields, which increased from approximately 4.0% to around 4.1%[3] - The market's expectation for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve dropped from 92% to 69% following comments from Fed Chair Powell[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6% in August, significantly above the market expectation of 0.2%[5] - The consumer confidence index for October was reported at 53.6, slightly down from 55.1 in September but up from a low of 52.2 in Q2[5] - The manufacturing PMI for October was recorded at 48.7, with new orders showing an upward trend, indicating a potential recovery in domestic demand[5] Group 3: External Factors Influencing the Dollar - Political instability in Japan and Europe has weakened the yen and euro, contributing to the dollar's strength[8] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to tighter liquidity conditions, with bank reserves dropping to $2.8 trillion, the lowest level in 2025[11] - The overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) surged to 4.22% on October 31, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The dollar index is expected to fluctuate around the 100-point mark in Q4 2025, influenced by various factors including government reopening and judicial decisions on tariffs[19] - The potential appointment of a new Fed Chair may lean towards dovish signals, which could lead to a decline in the dollar index[19] - The outcome of the U.S. Supreme Court hearing on tariffs could significantly impact market expectations and the dollar's trajectory[20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is attributed to a strong US dollar and rising US Treasury yields, leading to reduced demand for gold as an investment option [3][4][10]. Market Dynamics - On November 4, gold prices fell nearly $70 in a single day, dropping from around $4000 to a low of $3928 per ounce, closing at $3931.86 [1]. - The ICE US Dollar Index reached a three-month high, closing at 100.20, which made gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies [3]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.11%, making US bonds more attractive compared to gold, prompting a shift of funds from gold to the dollar [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Current gold price trends indicate a continuation of a bearish pattern, with prices breaking below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages [6]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3928 and $3900, with potential further declines to $3850/3840 or even $3820-3800 [6][15]. - The market sentiment is leaning towards further downward adjustments unless gold can reclaim the $4000 level [6][15]. Central Bank Behavior - Central banks globally have been net buyers of gold, with a reported purchase of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 [7][9]. - Emerging market central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have significant potential to increase their gold reserves, which could impact future demand [9][10]. Investor Sentiment - There is a notable divide in market sentiment, with 50% of retail investors predicting a rise in gold prices, while institutional investors are pulling funds from gold ETFs, with a record outflow of $7.5 billion in a week [12][10]. - The recent volatility in gold prices has led to increased anxiety among investors, with many questioning their strategies in light of the rapid price changes [10][12]. Broader Market Context - The decline in gold prices is part of a larger adjustment in global financial markets, influenced by concerns over high valuations in the AI sector and a strong US dollar [12][10]. - The correlation between gold prices and inflation has been significant, with gold serving as an effective hedge against inflation over the past 20 years [13].

Core Viewpoint - The news outlines key support and resistance levels for various currency pairs, indicating potential trading strategies based on market movements. Currency Analysis - **USDJPY**: Monthly resistance at 102.10, weekly support at 98.30, daily resistance at 99.30, and a critical short-term range between 100.10-20 [1][2] - **USDCAD**: Monthly support at 1.4030, weekly support at 1.3890, daily resistance at 1.4020, with a short-term critical range at 1570-80 [5][6] - **USDCHF**: Monthly support at 1.4100-1.4110, with no reversal signal indicating a bearish outlook [7] - **EURUSD**: Weekly support at 0.8000, daily resistance at 0.8000, and a critical range at 0.8090-0.8100 [9] - **GBPUSD**: Monthly support at 1.1120, weekly resistance at 1.1670, daily resistance at 1.1575, with a critical range at 1.1485-1.1495 [11] - **AUDUSD**: Monthly support at 1.3070, weekly resistance at 1.3415, daily resistance at 1.3220, with a critical range at 1.3040-50 [13] - **NZDUSD**: Weekly resistance at 0.6540, daily resistance at 0.6520, and a critical range at 0.6490-0.6500 [15] - **General Market Sentiment**: The analysis suggests a cautious approach, waiting for reversal signals before making significant trades [2][7][9][11][13][15] Economic Events - Key economic events to watch include Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, Germany's industrial output, Switzerland's unemployment rate, Eurozone retail sales, and the Bank of England's interest rate decision [17]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 153.9400, following a downward trend influenced by strong US employment data and risk appetite in the market [1] - The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) meeting minutes from September indicate a cautious approach to interest rate hikes, with policymakers weighing inflation dynamics and trade risks [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the timing of the next BoJ interest rate hike, as the new Prime Minister, Kishida Fumio, is expected to implement aggressive fiscal spending plans [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index reached its highest level since May, supported by reduced bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2] - The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its 36th day, has created a data vacuum, leading to a murky economic outlook [2] - Economists warn that the longer the shutdown persists, the higher the risk of the fragile economy transitioning from bending to breaking [2] Group 3 - Technically, the USD/JPY has faced strong resistance in the 154.40-154.45 range, which is now a key support level [3] - A breakthrough above this resistance could target the psychological level of 155.00, with potential follow-up buying paving the way to 155.60-155.65 [3] - Conversely, the 153.65 area may provide some support before a potential drop to the 153.00-152.95 range, with further declines targeting 152.55-152.50 and 152.00 [3]

Group 1 - The global largest gold ETF held 1,038.63 tons as of November 4, with a reduction of 3.15 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 26.32 tons from the previous month [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court is debating a tariff case, with conservative Chief Justice questioning its reasonableness, leading to a decreased probability of a Trump victory [2] - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 36 days, impacting the stock market, airline industry, and food assistance programs, but Trump still anticipates new highs in the stock market [2] Group 2 - Economic data shows that U.S. ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, exceeding expectations, but labor demand is slowing and wage growth is stagnant [2] - The service sector activity in October expanded at the fastest pace in eight months, surpassing economists' predictions [2] - The U.S. Treasury maintained its quarterly refinancing scale but hinted at potential increases in the future, leading to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield [2] Group 3 - Gold prices are currently operating below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a bearish crossover in the KD indicator [4] - The strategy for gold trading today suggests buying on dips between 3,965.9 and 3,971.9, with a stop loss at 3,960.9 and a target range of 3,975.9 to 3,981.9 [4] - Silver prices are also below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a similar bearish crossover in the KD indicator, recommending selling on highs between 48.21 and 48.71 [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent international gold prices have shown significant volatility, with COMEX gold futures dropping from $4013/oz to $3941.30/oz, and silver futures closing at $46.90/oz [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 36 days, impacting market liquidity and driving asset value rebalancing, which has contributed to the strengthening of the dollar index and the decline in international gold prices [4][5] Group 2: Economic Factors - The prolonged government shutdown has created market uncertainty, leading to a preference for the dollar as a safe asset, which has put downward pressure on gold prices [5] - The market has adjusted its expectations for a December interest rate cut, reducing the probability from 90% to 70%, which has influenced the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar [9] Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - New tax regulations regarding gold trading will take effect from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, focusing on VAT exemptions for exchange-traded transactions and physical delivery management [6] - The tax policy is expected to accelerate the centralization of gold trading in China and may shift interest towards gold investment products, although its impact on global gold prices is anticipated to be minimal [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in gold prices is primarily driven by rising real interest rates and cooling rate cut expectations, with short-term weakness expected if the dollar index remains above 100.5 [10] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and the broader trend of dollar credit expansion [10]