Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On February 9, the domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with platinum rising over 10%, silver over 8%, and palladium over 7% [1][2]. - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1664.20 points, up 34.86 points or 2.14% from the previous trading day [1]. - The overall commodity index also increased by 48.07 points, closing at 2294.88 points, reflecting a similar 2.14% rise [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals experienced a strong rebound, led by platinum's increase of 10.58%, silver's rise of 8.90%, and palladium's gain of 7.59% [2]. - Factors contributing to this rally include a weaker US dollar, increased buying interest, and China's central bank's gold purchases in January, which totaled 40,000 ounces, exceeding the previous month's 30,000 ounces [2]. - Despite positive consumer confidence in the US, the dollar index was not significantly boosted, and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve supported bullish sentiment in the precious metals market [2]. Group 3: Industrial Metals Insights - Industrial metals also saw gains, with lithium carbonate rising over 3% due to ongoing inventory depletion [3]. - The price of lithium carbonate briefly surpassed 140,000 yuan per ton, supported by a tight supply-demand balance despite lower production during the Chinese New Year [3]. - Data showed that lithium carbonate weekly production was 20,744 tons, down 825 tons week-on-week, while social inventory decreased by 2,019 tons, reinforcing the expectation of sustained demand [3]. Group 4: Specific Commodity Trends - Styrene experienced a significant drop of nearly 3%, attributed to weakening cost support from oil prices and declining demand as the Chinese New Year approached [4]. - The market anticipates an increase in styrene supply due to returning maintenance schedules, while downstream demand is expected to decrease during the holiday [4]. - For silicon and manganese silicon, both commodities fell over 1%, with current low iron water production limiting upward price potential [5]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding upcoming US economic data releases, which may impact precious metals [2]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to face short-term limitations on price rebounds due to macroeconomic influences and slowing transaction volumes as the holiday approaches [3]. - The outlook for silicon and manganese silicon prices will depend on the balance between supply excess and demand resilience in the steel sector [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market has been in a high - volatility state in the past week, shifting from divergence to a collective correction. Overseas, the divergence on AI has resurfaced, and the sharp correction of technology stocks, Bitcoin, and precious metals led by silver has impacted asset prices and raised investors' risk - aversion sentiment. In the domestic market, due to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, futures exchanges have announced margin hikes, leading to a significant outflow of funds from the futures market [5][10]. - The Fed is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged in March, with a probability of 82.3%. The market expects about two interest rate cuts in 2026 [6][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The capital market was highly volatile last week, with a collective correction. Overseas, the AI divergence affected asset prices. In the domestic market, the approaching Spring Festival led to margin hikes and a large - scale outflow of futures market funds. The BDI index dropped sharply, and most commodities corrected. The domestic bond market rebounded, while the stock index and most commodity categories declined. The Wind commodity index had a weekly change of - 21.16%, with 2 out of 10 commodity category indices rising and 8 falling. Precious metals led the decline, followed by non - ferrous metals with a - 5.07% drop. The energy - chemical sector was dragged down by the fall in crude oil prices, and coal - coking - steel and oilseeds also had notable declines. Agricultural products showed mixed performance [5][16]. - In terms of the futures market's capital flow, there was an overall significant outflow of funds from the commodity futures market. The coal - coking - steel and soft commodity sectors saw the most obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors had significant outflows. The volatility of the international CRB commodity index and domestic commodity indices increased. Most commodity futures categories saw higher volatility, except for the agricultural and grain sectors. The chemical and precious metals sectors had remarkable increases in volatility [6]. - The market's focus in the next week will be on the US non - farm payrolls report and CPI data. The non - farm payrolls report may adjust up to 1 million employment data. The market expects non - farm employment growth in January to be in the range of 60,000 - 80,000. China's January inflation and money supply data are also expected to be released next week. The Middle East situation seems to be stabilizing, with indirect talks between the US and Iran [7]. Large - scale Assets - The capital market was highly volatile last week, shifting from divergence to a collective correction. Overseas, the divergence on AI affected asset prices and raised risk - aversion sentiment. The VIX index rose slightly, the US dollar rebounded, and the RMB remained stable. Both the US and Chinese stock markets were under pressure. In the domestic market, due to the Spring Festival, futures exchanges raised margins, leading to a large - scale outflow of funds from the futures market. The BDI index dropped, and most commodities corrected [10]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market rebounded, the stock index declined, and most commodity categories were weak. The growth - style stocks performed significantly worse than the value - style stocks. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 both fell by more than - 2%, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 fell by about - 1%. The Wind commodity index had a weekly change of - 21.16%, with 2 out of 10 commodity category indices rising and 8 falling. Precious metals led the decline, followed by non - ferrous metals, and the energy - chemical sector was affected by the fall in crude oil prices [16]. Capital Flow - Last week, there was an overall significant outflow of funds from the commodity futures market. The coal - coking - steel and soft commodity sectors had the most obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors had significant outflows [18]. Variety Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures declined with large margins last week. The top - rising commodity futures were polysilicon, alumina, and glass, while the top - falling ones were Shanghai silver, platinum, and Shanghai tin [22]. Fluctuation Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB commodity index increased, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind commodity index and Nanhua commodity index both increased significantly. Most commodity futures categories saw higher volatility, except for the agricultural and grain sectors. The chemical and precious metals sectors had remarkable increases in volatility [25]. Macro Logic - The stock index was weak and declined across the board last week. Growth - style stocks had larger fluctuations and deeper declines. The valuation of the stock index was under pressure, and the equity risk premium (ERP) rebounded from a low level [32]. - The commodity price index fell from a high level, and the inflation expectation declined slightly under pressure [35]. - The US bond yield declined overall, the term structure was stable, the term spread fluctuated narrowly, the real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price fluctuated sharply, first falling and then rising [52]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" fluctuated, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US bonds widened significantly and then fluctuated narrowly [57]. Data Tracking - Most international major commodities declined, the BDI index dropped sharply, the CRB index fell, soybeans and corn rose slightly, and gold, silver, copper, and oil all declined. The silver price plunged, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded sharply from a low level [28]. - The asphalt开工率 declined seasonally, real - estate sales remained weak, freight rates decreased, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated downward [44]. - The US bond interest rate decreased, the China - US interest rate spread rebounded, the inflation expectation rose and then fell, the financial conditions showed signs of bottoming out, the US dollar index declined, and the RMB was strong [55]. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectation - The Fed is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% in March, with a probability of 82.3% (slightly lower than last week's 87.3%). The probability of a 25 - bp interest rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% increased slightly to 17.7%. The market expects about two interest rate cuts in 2026 [65]. This Week's Focus - Monday (February 9): Eurozone February Sentix Investor Confidence Index. - Tuesday (February 10): US December retail sales data, US December import price index. - Wednesday (February 11): China's January CPI, US January non - farm payrolls report. - Thursday (February 12): UK Q4 GDP preliminary value. - Friday (February 13): US January CPI. - Other: The People's Bank of China is expected to announce January money supply data during the week [70].

基本面： 周一（2月9日）黄金价格早盘高开大涨，随后大跌，市场短线追空或者等地回落支撑位多单布局，金价早盘上演绝地反击，单日狂飙近4%，现货价格一度 逼近每盎司4955美元，周线顽强收涨。现货黄金延续涨势，一度上涨1.7%至5046.15美元/盎司。与此同时，白银的波动更为剧烈，上周五盘中暴跌后10%后 大幅反弹，收盘上涨逾9%，收报77.50美元/盎司，波动幅度令人咋舌，周一续涨3%至79.90美元/盎司。这绝非简单的技术性反弹，其背后是美元指数的微妙 转向、中东地缘政治"火药桶"引信的忽明忽暗、以及全球央行政策路径的混沌交织。 本次金价暴力拉升，最直接的催化剂来自于外汇市场与地缘政治两个层面的"共振"。美元的"短暂喘息"：美元指数在上周五下跌0.2%，结束了连续多日的强 势。尽管整周仍录得上涨，但此时的回落，对于以美元计价的黄金而言，如同卸下了一副沉重的枷锁，使其对持有欧元、日元等其他货币的投资者而言变 得"更便宜"，从而刺激了实物买盘和投资需求。这种"跷跷板"效应在情绪敏感时期总是被放大。中东迷雾中的"避险脉冲"：伊朗方面关于在阿曼与美国举行 的核谈判取得"良好开端"并将持续推进的表态，本意是缓和局势， ...

Group 1 - The total silver futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange is 318,546 kilograms, with a decrease of 31,354 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 19,500 CNY/kg, reached a high of 21,050 CNY/kg, a low of 18,850 CNY/kg, and closed at 20,873 CNY/kg, reflecting an increase of 8.90% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.3%, reaching its lowest point since February 4, which enhanced the attractiveness of precious metals priced in dollars [2] - Retail investors have invested $430 million into the largest silver ETF, SLV, over the past six trading days [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by March is 19.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 80.1% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data indicates a strengthening of the Chinese yuan against various currency baskets, reflecting a positive trend in the currency's valuation and external economic factors supporting this movement [1][5][6]. Group 1: Currency Index Performance - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index stood at 98.34, increasing by 1.35% week-on-week [1][2]. - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index reported 105.44, with a weekly rise of 1.38% [1][2]. - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index was at 93.44, showing a weekly increase of 0.92% [1][2]. Group 2: External Economic Factors - The U.S. Congress passed a funding bill, resolving a partial government shutdown, which may influence market sentiment [5]. - Federal Reserve officials expressed cautious optimism about the U.S. economic outlook, with discussions on inflation and interest rate adjustments ongoing [5]. - The U.S. consumer confidence index reached 57.3, the highest in six months, while inflation expectations dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in a year [5]. Group 3: Domestic Economic Factors - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, reaching $33,991 billion, up by $412 billion or 1.23% from the previous month [6]. - Gold reserves rose to 7,419 million ounces, with an increase of 40,000 ounces month-on-month [6]. - The stable economic performance in China is seen as a support for maintaining a reasonable level of the RMB exchange rate [6]. Group 4: Market Trends and Predictions - The RMB has appreciated for eleven consecutive weeks, with moderate volatility against a basket of currencies [7]. - Seasonal factors, such as pre-Spring Festival currency settlement, have contributed to the RMB's strengthening [7]. - Future RMB performance may depend on external factors, particularly the U.S. dollar's movements, as seasonal influences diminish [7].

近期美元指数呈现震荡走势，2月5日上涨0.21%，在汇市尾盘收于97.824；2月6日下跌0.2%，收于 97.633。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 美联储官员近期释放的谨慎政策立场，推动美元指数维持高位震荡态势。 里士满联储主席巴金强调，在通胀完全回落至目标之前，货币政策仍需保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的 稳定。美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，他对美国经济前景"谨慎乐观"，暗示强劲的生产率增长有望帮助通胀 回落至央行2%的目标水平；当前的政策立场能够很好地应对经济发展。理事库克则指出，美联储必须 在近期将通胀率拉回目标水平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要；目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前景 不确定性仍处于较高水平。 据CME"美联储观察"数据，美联储到3月维持利率不变的概率为80.1%，到4月维持利率不变的概率为 65.2%。 ...

12 月份零售销售数据将于周三与就业报告同步公布。零售销售数据直接反映美国居民消费意愿与能力，而消费是拉动美国经济增长的重要动力，其表现将 补充市场对美国经济复苏节奏的认知。数据不及预期或强化美国经济放缓担忧，好于预期则可能缓解担忧，两者均会对美元指数产生不同方向影响。 本周多项延迟的关键经济数据将集中亮相，成为影响美元指数走势及市场情绪的核心变量。周三市场将迎来 1 月份就业报告，该数据是反映美国劳动力市场 状况的核心指标。 近期相关指标显示，美国劳动力市场已出现放缓，市场对此次就业报告预期谨慎，数据变动将直接影响市场对美国经济基本面的判断，作用于美元指数走 势。 周一，美元指数延续下跌态势，盘中跌至约 97.5 水平，为连续第二个交易日下跌。 市场交易员操作谨慎，因部分政府关门延迟的多项关键经济数据即将公布，市场静待数据释放以明确美国经济运行态势，调整后续交易策略。 1 月份消费者物价指数（CPI）将于周五公布，该数据为衡量美国通货膨胀水平的核心指标，其变动直接关系美联储后续货币政策调整方向。 日本周末举行相关选举，首相高苗领导的执政联盟获得稳定支持。从当前市场表现看，此次选举结果对全球外汇市场及美元指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The active trading price of April 2026 gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange increased by 2.03% to $4988.60 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 5.13% [1] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Recent weeks have seen a rise in the US dollar index, which has weakened market enthusiasm for gold and silver [1] - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility recently, currently fluctuating just below the $5000 per ounce mark [1] - The next bullish target for February gold futures is to break through the strong resistance level of $5250, while the next bearish target for shorts is to fall below the technical support level of $4423.2 [1] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The next bullish target for March silver futures is to surpass the strong technical resistance level of $92.015, while the next bearish target for shorts is to drop below the strong support level of $60 [1]

◎记者 范子萌 在美元指数下行和全球金融资产价格总体上涨的共同推动下，我国外汇储备规模延续上升态势。 国家外汇管理局2月7日公布的数据显示，截至1月末，我国外汇储备规模为33991亿美元，较2025年12月 末上升412亿美元，升幅为1.23%。 今年1月，我国外储规模实现连续第6个月增加。412亿美元的单月增幅，也创下2024年1月以来的新高。 谈及外储余额的持续增长，中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛对上海证券报记者表示，这主要反映了主要 经济体货币政策及预期、宏观经济数据等因素影响下，汇率折算和资产价格变化带来的正估值效应。 "1月，受美国经济基本面变化、地缘政治风险演变，叠加美联储主席提名等因素影响，美元走势一波三 折，连续第三个月走弱。同期，全球主要金融资产价格总体上涨。"管涛具体分析道。 回顾1月全球市场表现。汇率方面：美元指数下跌1.4%至97.0，月中一度跌至四年来低点；非美货币齐 涨，日元、欧元、英镑对美元分别上涨1.23%、0.9%和1.6%。资产价格方面：10年期美国国债收益率上 涨8个基点至4.26%；全球股市整体震荡偏强，标普500指数环比上涨1.4%，欧洲斯托克指数上涨3.4%， 日经指 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：美国小麦协会） 目前，俄罗斯97%的农作物处于正常生长状态，较去年同期87%的比例显著提升。2025产季部分地区遭 受恶劣天气影响，而2026产季目前这些早期数据预示着将迎来丰收年景。 波罗的海干散货运价指数（BDI）本周收于1,923点。随着春节假期临近，需求放缓导致市场情绪趋弱。 美元指数本周升至97.6。自特朗普总统提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席以来，美元持续走强，市场预期他 将支持更渐进的降息步伐。 运费指数 500 450 400 350 300 Feb-25 Apr-25 Jun-25 Aug-25 Oct-25 Dec-25 Grain Freight Index General Index 大灵便型散货船运费估算 35 30 $/metric ton පි 15 10 Feb-25 Apr-25 Jun-25 Aug-25 Dec-25 Oct-25 Mexico Gulf Origin Japan PNW Origin 由于技术软件问题，本周无法提供汇率数据以及部分图表。美国小麦协会正积极与软件合作伙伴协作解 决此问题。感谢您的理解与耐心。 因上周冰暴过后寒冷天气风险有 ...