美国就业数据意外"崩盘"。 今晚，美国劳工统计局发布的数据显示，美国7月新增非农就业人数骤降至7.3万人，大幅低于预期的10.4万人，为去年10月以 来最小增幅。有分析称，美国劳动力市场出现"急速刹车"，或引发新一轮衰退担忧。 就业数据公布后，美国利率期货显示美联储下次会议降息的可能性大幅上升。 受此影响，美元指数直线跳水，大跌超1%。美股开盘后，三大指数全线大跌，截至北京时间22:15，纳指大跌超2%，标普500 指数跌1.56%，道指跌1.41%。欧洲股市亦集体重挫，法国CAC40指数大跌近3%，德国DAX指数、欧洲斯托克50指数、意大利 富时MIB指数大跌超2%，英国富时100指数跌超1%。另外，VIX恐慌指数大幅飙涨超22%。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普再次批评美联储主席鲍威尔，并再次呼吁降息。他点评称："太少，太晚。美联储主席鲍威尔'太迟 先生'是个灾难。降息！" 美国就业数据崩了 北京时间8月1日晚间，美国劳工统计局发布了 7月非农就业报告 ，其中显示，美国7月非农就业人数增加7.3万人，大幅低于预 期的10.4万人，为去年10月以来最小增幅，前值为增加14.7万人。 报告显示，美国7月失业率回升至 ...

Core Insights - The British pound has rebounded against the euro due to reduced long positions on the euro by investors [1] - The rebound is influenced by a trade agreement between the US and Europe, which has alleviated concerns about a US economic recession [1] - The overall strength of the dollar has contributed to the decline of the euro, as market fears regarding tariffs impacting the eurozone economy have increased [1] Currency Movements - The British pound fell to a two-month low against the US dollar but rose to a near one-week high against the euro [1] - The euro's decline is attributed to market concerns over tariffs potentially harming the eurozone economy [1] - The report from ING's head of foreign exchange strategy, Chris Turner, highlights the reduction of previously held long positions on the euro by investors as a factor in the pound's rebound [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that global investment, manufacturing employment, spending, and overall economic activity remain robust despite uncertainties and challenges [2] - Global trade remains active, indicating the persistence and importance of international trade, with significant rebounds in stock markets across the Atlantic [2] - Moody's analysis suggests that the outcome of Japan's Senate elections may hinder the government's efforts to advance fiscal consolidation in the post-pandemic era [2] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank strategists warn that if the US confirms tariff increases on August 1 alongside disappointing employment reports, it could trigger renewed recession fears [3] - Concerns over the sustainability of US debt may become a central topic of discussion in the market for the second half of the year, with long-term Treasury yields facing upward pressure [3] - Current 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by 2 basis points to 4.392% [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment shows a continuation of previous trends, with the US AI sector maintaining high capital expenditure and fiscal deficits offsetting contractions in other private sectors [12][10] - The US labor market remains robust, with state government employment expanding, contributing to market stability despite recession fears [12][10] - In China, economic policies have not yet gained momentum, with ongoing issues in real estate and infrastructure funding, leading to a persistent decline in second-hand housing prices [12][10] Economic and Market Insights - The US stock market has rebounded to new highs despite concerns over economic weakness [12][10] - China's second-hand housing market is experiencing a monthly decline of 1%, with PPI and CPI remaining negative, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [12][10] - The overall economic fundamentals and corporate earnings in China are weak, yet the equity market continues to attract capital inflows due to asset scarcity [12][10] Commodity Performance - Commodity prices are showing signs of strength despite weak demand, categorized into three types: 1. Domestic industrial commodities experiencing supply shrinkage near cash cost levels [13] 2. Commodities with significant overseas pricing components, such as non-ferrous metals, benefiting from expectations of fiscal expansion from the US [14] 3. Oil prices rising due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [15] Banking Sector Risks - A significant potential risk is emerging from rising bad debts in the banking sector, particularly in long-term loans to residents, which amount to nearly 60 trillion yuan [16] - The bad debt rate for retail loans has accelerated, reaching levels not seen since early 2016, with second-hand housing prices continuing to decline [17] - A 30% decline in the second-hand housing index could lead to increased default probabilities as collateral values drop below loan amounts [17][18] Investment Strategy Adjustments - The current risk-reward profile for holding bank stocks has shifted negatively, leading to a complete reduction of bank stock holdings in Q2 [18] - Future fiscal policies, especially in real estate, are expected to gain traction as bad debt risks materialize [18] - A significant market style shift is anticipated as these risks unfold [19] Investment Plans - **Gold**: The acceleration of stablecoin issuance is reducing gold's allocation in portfolios [20][21] - **Interest Rates**: Reallocation towards medium-term government bond futures as interbank liquidity stabilizes [22] - **Commodities**: Maintaining net long positions in industrial commodities as prices approach cash cost levels [23] - **Equities**: No significant changes in equity positions compared to the previous month [24] Long-term Holdings - 40% of long-term positions are in stocks with favorable characteristics such as low price-to-book ratios and high dividends, including state-owned enterprises in construction and materials [25] - 15%-20% of positions are in stock index futures, providing protection against potential downturns [25]

Group 1: US Economic Overview - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June[6] - The average monthly non-farm payrolls over the past three months rose to 150,000, indicating a steady labor market[6] - The ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49 in June from 48.5 in May, while the non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.8, slightly above the market expectation of 50.6[8] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - As of July 3, the 5-year inflation expectation in the US was 2.37%, up 6 basis points from the previous week, while the 10-year expectation rose to 2.33%, an increase of 4 basis points[13] - Many Federal Reserve officials believe that a rate cut in July may be premature, with expectations leaning towards a potential cut later in the year[23] - The European Central Bank (ECB) will determine future rate cuts based on incoming data, with no commitment to a specific path[24] Group 3: European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone HICP year-on-year growth rate slightly increased from 1.9% in May to 2.0% in June, aligning with market expectations[18] - The core HICP remained stable at 2.3% year-on-year, while the Eurozone PPI year-on-year growth rate fell from 0.7% in April to 0.3% in May[18] - The unemployment rate in the EU27 remained low at 5.9% in May, unchanged from April[18]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has regained the $3300 level, breaking a two-week downtrend, but lacks bullish momentum in the short term [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is closely monitoring U.S. trade negotiations, with gold (XAU/USD) starting the week on a solid foundation but losing momentum after three consecutive days of gains [2][5]. - A letter from President Trump to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell urging for lower interest rates contributed to the initial strength of gold, but hawkish comments from Powell limited further gains [3][4]. - Employment data released showed a decline of 33,000 in private sector jobs in June, significantly below the expected increase of 95,000, putting pressure on the dollar and allowing gold to rise slightly [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market remains strong, with non-farm payrolls (NFP) increasing by 147,000 in June, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, leading to a sharp decline in the probability of a rate cut in July [4][5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed dropped from nearly 20% to about 5% following the positive labor market data [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold is trading near the lower boundary of a six-month upward return channel at $3300, with the relative strength index (RSI) around 50, indicating a lack of directional momentum [7]. - If gold breaks below $3300, the next support levels are seen at $3285 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and $3185 (100-day simple moving average) [7]. - On the upside, static resistance appears at $3370, followed by $3400 and $3455 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintains a patient and watchful stance on potential interest rate cuts, emphasizing that decisions will depend on upcoming economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Powell reiterated that the Fed is closely monitoring the impact of tariff policies on prices and economic growth, suggesting that concerns over tariffs have hindered the Fed's ability to lower rates [1]. - The last interest rate cut by the Fed occurred in December 2024, and since then, rates have remained unchanged for four consecutive meetings [1]. - There is internal division within the Fed regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some members advocating for cuts as early as July [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in May, while the core CPI increased by 2.8%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2]. - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June was reported at 49, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector, despite being above the expected 48.8 [3]. - Private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs in June, raising concerns about economic recession and potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts to stimulate growth [3]. Group 3: Political Pressures and Fed Leadership - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell and has indicated intentions to nominate a successor to weaken Powell's influence, with several candidates mentioned [2]. - Powell emphasizes the need for a non-political approach to decision-making, focusing on data-driven policies despite external pressures [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member Takeda Soichi believes that a severe recession in the U.S. economy is unlikely [1] Group 1 - Takeda highlights that the U.S. economy is showing resilience despite various challenges [1] - The member's comments suggest a positive outlook for global economic conditions, which may influence investment strategies [1] - Takeda's perspective may impact market sentiment regarding U.S. economic stability and growth potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member Takeda is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policies and believes that a severe recession in the U.S. economy is unlikely [1] Group 1 - Takeda emphasizes the importance of observing the Federal Reserve's actions as they could impact global economic conditions [1] - The statement reflects a cautious optimism regarding the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst potential challenges [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the emerging markets (EM) sector, but it discusses the current state of capital flows and economic conditions, indicating a cautious outlook due to various factors affecting inflows [2][4][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a "sudden stall" in capital flows to emerging markets, with cumulative net outflows of $27 billion through April 2025, driven primarily by portfolio investments [10][14]. - Despite a weaker dollar acting as a push factor for inflows, the lack of stronger growth in emerging markets limits the pull factor, resulting in sluggish inflows [7][9]. - The report notes that current accounts in emerging markets are generally in good shape, which has insulated them from significant macroeconomic damage despite the capital flow challenges [14][16]. Summary by Sections Economic Overview - The report discusses the elevated probability of a US recession at 40%, with uncertainties surrounding US trade policies and geopolitical risks impacting global economic conditions [1]. - It mentions that the dollar has weakened significantly since March, which typically would benefit emerging markets, but this has not translated into expected inflows [2][4]. Capital Flows Analysis - The report identifies both push and pull factors influencing capital flows, with a weaker dollar serving as a push factor and the growth differential between emerging and developed markets acting as a pull factor [3]. - It notes that portfolio inflows have been weak since October, with a significant outflow of $115 billion in April 2025, attributed to market turmoil [10][12]. Growth and Inflation Outlook - The report suggests that domestic demand in emerging markets remains soft, and any escalation in tariffs could skew risks further to the downside, impacting growth differentials [9]. - It emphasizes that while inflation is expected to move lower, some central banks in emerging markets may have room to cut rates due to contained macro risks [14][16].