Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: Volatility Narrowing and the Stalemate between Long and Short Positions [1] - Report Author: Investment Consulting Department of Hualong Futures - Report Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Financial Sector Researcher: Deng Xiayu [4] Group 2: Market Review - IF2506 closed at 3855.4 points, up 33.0 points or 0.86% from the previous week [4] - IH2506 closed at 2673.6 points, up 6.4 points or 0.24% from the previous week [4] - IC2506 closed at 5725.4 points, up 97.6 points or 1.73% from the previous week [4] - IM2506 closed at 6100.2 points, up 134.2 points or 2.25% from the previous week [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [7] Group 4: Valuation Analysis - As of June 8, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 29.11 times, with a quantile of 68.63% and a PB of 1.8 times [9] - The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.9 times, with a quantile of 74.9% and a PB of 1.2 times [9] - The PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.56 times, with a quantile of 53.73% and a PB of 1.31 times [9] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.05 times, with a quantile of 60.39% and a PB of 2.09 times [9] Group 5: Other Data - Stock - Bond Yield Spread - Stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two calculation formulas [17] - Formula 1: Stock - bond yield spread = (1 / Index static PE) - 10 - year government bond yield [17] - Formula 2: Stock - bond yield spread = 10 - year government bond yield - Index static dividend yield [17] Group 6: Comprehensive Analysis - The A - share market showed an oscillating pattern with significant differentiation among sectors. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 Indexes outperformed the SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes [20] - The overall market showed a relatively strong trend, but the future upward space may be limited [20] - Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to macro - economic data, Sino - US economic and trade negotiation policies, and external market fluctuations [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of the dividend index in recent years, its driving factors, and the potential for continued growth in the future [1][5][47]. Performance Overview - The dividend index has shown strong performance in recent years, with some dividend funds increasing in value by 50%-80% [8][47]. - From 2018 to 2021, the growth style bull market saw the growth style index rise over 150%, while the dividend index lagged behind [6]. - However, from 2022 to 2024, the dividend index has performed well, showing overall growth [7]. Sources of Returns - The four main sources of returns for dividend index funds are: 1. **Undervalued Buy-in and Valuation Improvement**: The dividend index has seen a significant increase in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from around 7-8 times in 2018 to approximately 9-10 times by May 2025 [18][19][22]. 2. **Profit Growth**: The underlying companies of the dividend index have shown stable profit growth, particularly from 2022 to 2024, which supports the index's performance [27]. 3. **Dividend Yield**: The current dividend yield has increased significantly compared to 5-10 years ago, with many stocks now yielding 5%-6% [30][34]. 4. **Rule Optimization**: The optimization of index rules has improved returns, with newer indices incorporating additional criteria for stock selection [39][44]. Historical Performance Metrics - The annualized return of the dividend index since the end of 2004 is 8.73%, which increases to 12.52% when accounting for dividends [13][14]. - The long-term growth rate of the dividend index is estimated at 8%-9%, with an additional annual dividend yield of 3%-4% [14]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have encouraged companies to increase dividend payouts, resulting in a rise in the number and amount of cash dividends distributed by A-share companies, reaching approximately 2.4 trillion in 2024 [33]. - The proportion of profits distributed as dividends has increased from 30%-40% to 40%-50% for some companies [34]. Conclusion - The combination of undervalued buy-in, profit growth, increased dividend yields, and optimized rules are expected to continue driving the long-term growth of the dividend index [47].

文字早评 2025/06/04 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.43%，创指+0.48%，科创 50+0.48%，北证 50+1.03%，上证 50+0.32%，沪深 300+0.31%， 中证 500+0.42%，中证 1000+0.72%，中证 2000+0.82%，万得微盘+1.26%。两市合计成交 11414 亿，较上 一日+22 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、商务部等五部门组织开展 2025 年新能源汽车下乡活动。 2、中国 5 月财新制造业 PMI 降至 48.3，新订单显著收缩。 3、OECD 今年第二次下调全球经济预测，称特朗普关税风暴下美国首当其冲。 资金面：融资额-83.49 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+6.10bp 至 1.4710%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-1.53bp 至 3.0261%，十年期国债利率+0.15bp 至 1.6777%，信用利差-1.68bp 至 135bp；美国 10 年期利率+5.00bp 至 4.46%，中美利差-4.85bp 至-278bp。 市盈率：沪深 300:12.50，中证 500:28.78，中证 1000:39 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the advantages of semi-annual rebalancing of dividend funds, which can lead to an additional 5% return compared to annual rebalancing [1] Group 1: Timing and Performance - Semi-annual rebalancing offers a significant timing advantage, allowing funds to capture dividends from newly announced high-dividend stocks earlier than annual rebalancing funds [2] - For instance, in May 2024, the index included Shaanxi Coal, which had a proposed dividend yield of 9.2%, allowing investors to benefit from a complete dividend payout before the stock price increased by 15% [2] Group 2: Risk Management - The semi-annual rebalancing strategy helps avoid "dividend traps" often set by cyclical stocks, which may announce high dividends but later report poor performance [3] - In December 2023, the CSI 800 Dividend Low Volatility Index removed a coal stock that saw its dividend yield plummet from 12% to 3%, thus avoiding a subsequent 40% drop in stock price [3] Group 3: Cost Efficiency - Funds with semi-annual rebalancing maintain a lower turnover rate of 20%-30%, which reduces transaction costs compared to high-frequency rebalancing funds that exceed 50% turnover [4] - For example, a 10,000 yuan investment could yield an additional 4,000 yuan over five years due to lower trading fees associated with semi-annual rebalancing [4] Group 4: Recommended Dividend Indices - The CSI 800 Dividend Low Volatility Index includes 100 stocks with a diversified industry weight, effectively mitigating risks from any single sector [5] - The CSI Dividend Quality Index focuses on 50 stocks with stable earnings, ensuring that only companies with a return on equity (ROE) greater than 15% are included [6] - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index has a safety check for stocks with yields over 7%, successfully avoiding a stock that later fell by 60% [7] - The S&P A-Share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility Index has shown strong defensive performance, with a maximum drawdown of 11.3%, significantly lower than the 22.7% drawdown of the CSI 300 [8] Group 5: Tax Efficiency - Semi-annual rebalancing strategies can minimize tax liabilities by allowing investors to hold stocks longer, thus reducing the tax burden associated with short-term holdings [12] - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index has a tax cost of only 0.2%, compared to 0.6% for quarterly rebalancing funds [12] Group 6: Portfolio Strategy - Combining different types of dividend funds can enhance overall returns while providing risk diversification [15] - The West China State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index has outperformed its benchmark by 22 percentage points over five years, focusing on stocks with high dividend yields and state-owned enterprise reforms [15]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight year-on-year increase in total power generation of 0.3% for the first four months of the year, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation, while thermal power generation declined due to asset sales [1][2] Group 1: Power Generation Performance - Total power generation for the company in January to April remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Wind and solar power generation saw substantial increases of 32.1% and 13.6% respectively [1] - Thermal power generation decreased by 14.2% due to the sale of equity at the end of last year [1] - Hydropower generation experienced a significant drop in April, with a year-on-year decline of 53.3% and a month-on-month decline of 26.5% due to fluctuations in water inflow [1] Group 2: Fuel Costs and Profitability - The price of thermal coal weakened in the second quarter, leading to an expected improvement in the price differential for thermal power generation in the first half of the year [1] - The company anticipates a 2% higher price differential for thermal power generation than previously expected due to a more than 7% drop in domestic thermal coal prices since the end of March [1] - The fuel cost forecast for the thermal power segment has been reduced by 1% to RMB 0.249 per kilowatt-hour, reflecting an approximate 8% year-on-year decrease [1] Group 3: Financial Adjustments and Valuation - The company has adjusted its 2025 water power utilization hours down by about 1% to reflect weaker generation in April [2] - Following adjustments to the financial model, the profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 1.0% and 1.4% respectively [2] - The valuation standard for the water power segment has been raised to 1.9 times the 2025 book value, up from 1.5 times, based on the asset injection valuation [2] - The target price for the company has been revised upward to HKD 3.77 from HKD 3.51 based on a segmented valuation approach [2] Group 4: Shareholder Confidence and Dividends - The parent company has increased its stake in the company, indicating confidence in its development, with a total increase of 1% over the past 12 months [2] - The current dividend yield of 6% for 2025 and 7% for 2026 remains attractive to investors despite market fluctuations [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these factors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, emphasizing the importance of understanding index valuation percentiles and the associated risks when making investment decisions. Market Overview - The major indices, such as the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, have shown little fluctuation, while small-cap stocks have slightly declined [2][4]. - Value and dividend styles have seen minor increases, whereas growth styles have experienced slight declines [3][4]. - After a significant drop in early April, global markets have rebounded over the following weeks, but have recently entered a period of sideways movement [5][6]. Index Valuation Percentiles - The article highlights that percentile rankings can be a useful reference for current valuations in historical contexts [7][8]. - A 30% percentile indicates that 30% of historical valuations were lower than the current one [9]. Risks Associated with Percentile Valuation 1. **Short Historical Data**: Relying on a short time frame for index data can lead to misleading conclusions. Historical data should ideally encompass multiple market cycles [12][13]. - Solution: Use longer historical indices of similar styles for reference [14][15][16]. 2. **Changes in Index Rules**: Modifications in index selection criteria can alter valuation metrics, making historical comparisons less relevant [18][19][20]. - Solution: Recalculate historical valuations based on new rules [21]. 3. **Different Valuation Weighting Methods**: Variations in how indices calculate valuations can lead to discrepancies in percentiles. For example, the dividend index's valuation can differ significantly based on whether it is market-cap weighted or dividend-yield weighted [22][23][24][28]. - Solution: Calculate valuations based on the actual stocks held in the index [29]. 4. **Economic Downturns**: During economic slowdowns, declining earnings can artificially inflate price-to-earnings ratios, skewing percentile rankings [5][30]. - Solution: Use stable financial metrics for valuation when earnings are volatile [30][31]. New Features and Tools - A new feature in the "Today Stars" mini-program has been launched, allowing users to access ETF valuation tables and identify undervalued ETFs [32][35]. - The program provides real-time data on ETF valuations, including premium/discount rates and historical valuation data [35]. Investor Engagement - The article encourages investors to share their experiences and thoughts, particularly regarding the three-year anniversary of the investment strategy, highlighting the importance of perseverance during market downturns [40][41].

5月20日，工、农、中、建、交、邮储六大国有银行、招商银行同步下调存款利率。一年期定期存款利率首次跌破1%至0.95%，活期利率降至 0.05%。 近日，多家银行下调了定期存款利率下行。与此同时，银行股的收益率高企，远超存款利率，引发了投资者关于"存银行不如买银行股"的讨论。 有网友在微博上表示，这两年拿着银行股不仅能赚差价，还能获得股息收入，"不要太香"。也有网友表示，银行股经过前期的大涨，现在的价格 并不低。 根据Wind数据，截至5月26日收盘，在42家A股上市银行中，有21家银行的近12个月股息率超过了5%。其中，平安银行、民生银行等股份制银行 的股息率更是突破了8%，分别达到了8.48%和8.24%。 与此同时，南京银行、厦门银行、江苏银行等的股息率也超过了6%，远超存款收益。 近日，中国人民银行发布降准降息等一揽子金融政策后，多家银行下调存款利率，尤其是部分长期限定期存款利率跌破2%，进入"1"时代。 股份行快速跟进。中信银行、兴业银行、浦发银行、光大银行等全国性股份制商业银行均已跟进。一年期定期存款利率均降至1.15%，两年期定 期存款利率降至1.2%（除民生银行外），三年期、五年期存款利率分别 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the limited availability of investment options in mainland China for overseas markets, while highlighting the potential for investment through various funds available abroad [1][4]. Group 1: Global Stock Market Overview - The global stock market has seen a decline, with the overall index rating dropping to 3.6 stars, and the U.S. stock market index falling by 2.5% this week [5][26]. - Hong Kong stocks have outperformed globally, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1% and the Hong Kong Dividend Index increasing by over 2% [7][8][9]. - The Hong Kong dividend stocks have shown a strong performance, continuing to rise for six consecutive weeks since early April [10]. Group 2: Dividend Yield and Tax Implications - The default dividend yield for Hong Kong dividend stocks is relatively high, reaching 6-7% in some cases, but investors face a 20% withholding tax on H-shares and 28% on red-chip stocks when investing through the Stock Connect [14][15]. - The article notes that the dividend yields presented in the valuation table have already accounted for these withholding taxes [17]. Group 3: Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Markets - Recent fluctuations in the U.S. stock market are attributed to tariff announcements by former President Trump, which may lead to increased inflation and affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [18][23]. - The article suggests that higher tariffs are primarily a negotiation tool rather than a fundamental objective, indicating that there is no need for excessive concern [25]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - There are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but there are substantial global stock index funds abroad, amounting to over a trillion dollars [28]. - The company has introduced a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-shares to track the global stock market [29]. Group 5: Book Promotion - The article promotes the newly released sixth edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide," which has gained significant popularity, ranking first in sales on major platforms [31][32]. - The book provides updated data and insights on various asset classes, emphasizing that stocks are the best long-term investment for wealth accumulation [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the insurance industry [7] Core Insights - The insurance industry has entered a new wave of shareholding activity since 2024, marking the third wave since 2015, driven primarily by the demand for high-dividend stocks to enhance cash income [12][16] - The report categorizes shareholding activities into two types: "Concentrated Shareholding" which emphasizes dividend income, and "Long-term Equity Investment" which focuses on high ROE [12][19] Summary by Sections Shareholding Activity Overview - Since 2015, there have been three major waves of shareholding activities, with the current wave starting in 2024. The driving factors include the need for stable cash income in a declining interest rate environment [16][25] - The average dividend yield of shares involved in the current wave is approximately 5.0%, the highest in history, indicating a significant focus on dividend income [15][31] Concentrated Shareholding - "Concentrated Shareholding" refers to situations where insurance companies increase their holdings without reaching the threshold for long-term equity investment. This type has been predominant, accounting for about two-thirds of shareholding activities since 2015 [19][32] - The average dividend yield for "Concentrated Shareholding" has increased over the years, from 1.0% in 2015 to 5.0% in 2024, reflecting a growing emphasis on dividend income [15][31] Long-term Equity Investment - "Long-term Equity Investment" occurs when insurance companies hold a significant stake that allows them to exert influence over the company. Approximately one-third of shareholding activities fall into this category [19][49] - The average ROE of companies involved in "Long-term Equity Investment" is around 9.3%, which is higher than the average ROE of the entire A-share market [19][50] Historical Performance of Shareholding Stocks - Historical data shows that about 70% of stocks involved in shareholding activities experienced price increases in the year prior, but over 60% saw declines during the holding period, indicating a "see-saw" effect in performance [5][13] - Long-term, dividends are viewed as a more stable source of income for insurance companies compared to capital gains from stock price appreciation [5][13] Industry Focus - The sectors most frequently targeted for shareholding include banking, transportation, and public utilities, which are characterized by stable profitability and high dividend yields [22][43] - The report highlights a notable preference for Hong Kong stocks due to their lower valuations and higher dividend yields, making them attractive for long-term holding [31][43]

Group 1 - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have lowered the RMB deposit rates starting from May 20, with the savings rate down by 5 basis points to 0.05% and various term deposit rates reduced by 15 to 25 basis points [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the policy rate, which is expected to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - Analysts believe that the interest rate cut will lower banks' funding costs, which is favorable for the banking sector, and institutions with capital allocation needs will continue to consider dividend sectors like banks [1] Group 2 - The average dividend yield of the four major banks has remained stable at around 5% over the past five years, attracting long-term funds such as insurance and social security [2] - Individual investors with capital allocation needs may consider using bank ETFs (515020) and other index investment tools [2] - The AH premium index has risen to approximately 143, making the investment value of Hong Kong stocks more attractive compared to A-shares, with financial ETFs in Hong Kong featuring over 65% bank content [2]