特朗普对鲍威尔持续施压，再次搅动市场，并引发一个关键问题：若这位总统真的解雇身处困境的美联 储主席，后续将发生什么？ 此举在美国史上尚无先例，几乎必定会引发一场牵动华盛顿和华尔街的标志性诉讼，最终由美国最高法 院裁决。 最高法院对禁令的裁决很可能成为终局判决。虽然败诉方可继续诉讼，但大法官们后续自我推翻的可能 性微乎其微。 若案件诉至最高法院，可能如何裁决？ 最高法院5月的判决显示，特朗普不能无故解雇鲍威尔。在允许特朗普无需理由解雇其他两家机构官员 时，多数大法官明确表示该判决不意味着总统对美联储拥有类似权力。法院称美联储是"结构独特、准 私人的实体"。 不过裁决仍保留以"正当理由"解雇鲍威尔的可能性。若案件诉至最高法院，特朗普的"胜诉纪录"可能使 其占据优势。保守派占绝对多数的最高法院屡次拒绝质疑特朗普的判断，去年授予总统广泛刑事豁免 权，今年又批准多项请求允许其面临法律挑战的政策生效。 最新风波爆发于7月16日，有报道称特朗普可能很快对鲍威尔采取行动。这位美联储主席因未听从降息 呼吁而长期处于总统的瞄准镜下。特朗普随后否认报道，称鲍威尔被撤换"极不可能，除非他因欺诈必 须离职"。 这指向美联储总部装修费用 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Overnight, Trump said he would not consider firing the Fed Chairman for the time being, easing market concerns, boosting risk appetite, and causing oil prices to rebound. Meanwhile, the decline in EIA crude oil inventories also supported oil prices. However, the accumulation of gasoline and refined oil in the downstream and the decline in gasoline production have worried the market about the lack of optimism in summer peak demand, limiting the upside of oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term trading is expected to be in the range of 513 - 523, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Trump said he doesn't plan to fire the Fed Chairman, EU is ready to impose tariffs on $836 billion of US goods if trade talks fail, and gasoline demand decline during the summer driving season is disappointing. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On July 16, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.22 per barrel, and the basis was 8.60 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 83.9 barrels in the week ending July 11, contrary to the expected decrease of 163.7 barrels; EIA inventory decreased by 385.9 barrels in the week ending July 11, more than the expected decrease of 55.2 barrels; Cushing area inventory increased by 21.3 barrels in the week ending July 11. As of July 16, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 451.7 barrels. The overall situation is bullish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is near the moving average, a bearish signal [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 8, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 0.50, - 0.46, - 0.80, and - 2.24 respectively, with decline rates of - 0.72%, - 0.69%, - 0.15%, and - 3.09% [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil decreased by - 0.54, - 0.46, - 1.87, - 1.89, and - 2.28 respectively, with decline rates of - 0.75%, - 0.69%, - 2.59%, - 2.73%, and - 3.15% [9]. 2. Recent News - Trump's potential replacement of the Fed Chairman caused market fluctuations, but he later said there was no current plan. Market participants have different views on this event. The EU is ready to impose tariffs on $836 billion of US goods if trade talks fail. Trump also mentioned possible tariff rates for Japan and a potential trade agreement with India [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, trade relations between the US and other economies remain tense, and there is a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **API Inventory Trend**: From May 2 to July 11, API inventory showed fluctuations, with an increase of 83.9 barrels in the week ending July 11 [10]. - **EIA Inventory Trend**: From May 9 to July 11, EIA inventory also fluctuated, with a decrease of 385.9 barrels in the week ending July 11 [14]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: From May 6 to July 8, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds showed fluctuations, with a decrease of 25,319 positions on July 8 compared to July 1 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: From May 6 to July 8, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds also fluctuated, with an increase of 55,630 positions on July 8 compared to July 1 [19].

受美联储主席鲍威尔将很快被解雇的传闻影响，美股周三盘中一度跳水，而在特朗普否认后，美股周三收盘走高，纳指续创收盘新高。 当地时间7月16日，美国三大股指集体收涨。截至收盘，道指涨0.53%报44254.78点；标普500指数涨0.32%报6263.7点；纳指涨0.25%报20730.49 点，续创收盘新高。 大型科技股涨跌不一，特斯拉涨超3%，谷歌涨0.53%，苹果涨0.5%，英伟达涨0.39%，Meta跌逾1%，亚马逊跌超1%，微软跌0.04%。 | 0 | | | --- | --- | | O | | | k | | 随后，特朗普紧急澄清。当地时间7月16日，特朗普澄清称自己没有计划采取任何行动，也没有起草解雇信件。他强调，虽然"极不可能"主动解雇 鲍威尔，但也不能排除因欺诈行为而解雇的可能性。 特朗普表示，鲍威尔最终将完成他的任期，但如果他想要辞职，也会感到乐意。特朗普说："他们说如果我撤换美联储主席鲍威尔，市场将会受到 干扰。" 芯片股涨跌不一，费城半导体指数跌0.39%。ARM涨超4%，超威半导体涨逾2%，微芯科技涨超1%，阿斯麦跌超8%，美光科技跌逾3%，应用材 料、迈威尔科技跌逾2%。 中概股 ...

Group 1 - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicating that there are many excellent candidates both inside and outside the Fed [1] - President Trump has expressed extreme dissatisfaction with current Chairman Powell, advocating for interest rates to be lowered below 1%, claiming that a 3% annual rate cut could save the U.S. trillions [1][3] - Mnuchin warned that if Powell remains on the board after his term ends in May 2026, it could lead to market chaos, emphasizing the tradition of a complete exit for Fed Chairs to avoid creating a "shadow chairman" [3] Group 2 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under significant threat, as White House economic advisor Hassett publicly stated that the President has the authority to dismiss the Fed Chairman, politicizing the Fed's operations [3][6] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, publicly warned against political interference in the Fed, highlighting the critical importance of its independence [6] - The Trump administration is reportedly considering announcing a successor to Powell as early as September or October, with a list of potential candidates that includes hawkish former Fed governors and current economic advisors [6][7] Group 3 - The potential dismissal of Powell could undermine the century-long tradition of Fed independence, which is foundational to global trust in the U.S. dollar [7] - The ongoing political pressure on the Fed, including scrutiny over a $700 million renovation cost, poses unprecedented challenges to the institution's autonomy [7] - The current political dynamics could reshape financial regulations and threaten the stability of the dollar's dominance in the global market [7]

当地时间7月15日，《纽约时报》披露，美国总统特朗普已起草解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的信件，并启动了新任美联储主席的遴选程 序。尽管特朗普当天对这一说法予以否认，但消息仍令华尔街震动，也使总统与美联储之间的矛盾再次成为全球财经舆论的焦点。 △《纽约时报》发文称，特朗普已经起草解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的信件。 特朗普为何对鲍威尔不满？ 综合特朗普的历次表态及白宫内部消息，特朗普对鲍威尔的不满主要集中在以下几点： 首先，特朗普认为鲍威尔降息太慢。自2018年以来，美联储坚持加息周期，与特朗普希望通过低利率刺激经济增长的政策取向相左。 其次，鲍威尔坚守美联储"独立运作"原则，多次拒绝在公开场合顺应白宫政策导向，使特朗普屡次感到难堪。 第三，从风格上看，鲍威尔低调保守，很少参与媒体舆论，而特朗普则希望重要岗位上的人能与其保持一致、愿意配合公开表态。 第四，特朗普经济团队——包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特、国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特等普遍对鲍威尔持批评态度，进一步加剧了矛 盾。 谁将成为下任美联储主席？ 特朗普7月15日公开表示："财政部长斯科特·贝森特可能是下任美联储主席人选，但我更喜欢他继续当财政部长。"但7月16日 ...

据知情人士向媒体透露，特朗普总统任内任职时间最长的经济顾问之一凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）， 目前是明年接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席的最热门人选。 哈塞特现任白宫国家经济委员会主任，是特朗普任内任职时间最长的经济顾问之一，他和凯文·沃什 （Kevin Warsh）是美联储主席接班人的两位主要候选人。媒体称，财政部长贝森特也参与甄选，并提 供建议，如果其他人表现不理想，贝森特本人也有可能得到这份工作。此外，美联储理事Christopher Waller则被视为"黑马"候选人。 特朗普周三也对媒体表示，他正在考虑任命哈塞特接替鲍威尔。他还将鲍威尔继续留任一事归咎于前总 统拜登。鲍威尔最初是特朗普在其第一任期内提名的，而拜登随后又将其重新提名。 特朗普不断指责鲍威尔把利率维持得太高，并表示会选择一位支持降息的美联储主席，引发市场对美联 储将丧失独立性的担忧。哈塞特也附和了特朗普对美联储的批评。他在本月接受媒体采访时提到，美联 储是一个独立机构，但他说，美联储在去年总统大选前降息，然后又以关税引发的通胀风险为由最近保 持利率不变，因此值得受到总统批评。 华盛顿智库Beacon Policy Advisers ...

当地时间7月16日，多家美媒援引知情人士报道称，特朗普已起草解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的信函。消息一出，金融市场发生强烈动荡，黄金飙升， 美股下跌。一小时后，特朗普辟谣称，"目前没有计划采取任何行动"，随后黄金下跌，美股上涨。 美联储主席鲍威尔 美媒16日爆料称，特朗普15日晚上向一群众议院共和党人询问是否应该解雇鲍威尔，出席会议的人士均表示赞同。多位消息人士称，特朗普暗示 他会这么做。 消息传出后，美股、美元迅速下跌，短期国债上涨，黄金、比特币走高。 一小时后，特朗普在椭圆形办公室向记者证实，他确实与共和党人讨论过罢免鲍威尔的事情，但"目前没有计划采取任何行动"，也没有像一些美 媒报道的那样起草了解雇信件。 摩根大通的首席执行官戴蒙15日公开警告特朗普政府不要干预美联储主席鲍威尔的工作，强调央行的独立性"至关重要"；高盛首席执行官表示， 应"为了维护央行的独立性而战"；花旗集团首席执行官16日发表声明称，"美联储的独立性对资本市场的效率和美国的竞争力来说至关重要"。 特朗普辟谣后，市场随即扭转此前趋势。 证券行业人员分析称，特朗普此举是希望借机炒作影响市场，倒逼美联储降息，从而达到自己的目的。正如操纵"关税新闻" ...

Group 1: Conflict Overview - The core conflict revolves around monetary policy disagreements and escalating personal attacks between Trump and Fed Chairman Powell [1][2] - Trump demands a reduction in interest rates from the current 4.25%-4.5% to 1% or lower, claiming that each 1% cut could save the U.S. $360 billion in annual interest payments [1] - Personal attacks include derogatory remarks towards Powell, labeling him as "stupid" and "Mr. Too Late," while also threatening his resignation over budget overruns [1][4] Group 2: Powell's Response - Powell emphasizes the independence of monetary policy, stating it should be based on economic data rather than political influence [2] - He cites the Federal Reserve Act, asserting that the President cannot dismiss the Fed Chairman due to policy disagreements, with his term lasting until May 2026 [2][4] Group 3: Legal and Institutional Constraints - The legal framework restricts the dismissal of the Fed Chairman to cases of "misconduct or crime," with no historical precedent for successful removal [4] - A Supreme Court ruling further reinforces that the President lacks the authority to arbitrarily dismiss heads of independent agencies [4][6] Group 4: Economic Implications - The U.S. national debt has reached $36 trillion, and a 1% interest rate reduction could save $360 billion in interest, significantly exceeding tariff revenues [6] - Trump attributes inflation to Powell's refusal to lower rates, while the Fed counters that Trump's tariffs have contributed to rising prices [7] Group 5: Market Reactions - The dollar index fell nearly 11% within the first six months of Trump's presidency, marking a three-year low [8] - Gold prices surged, with a single-day increase of 13%, the highest since 1968, driven by political uncertainty [9] - Goldman Sachs warns that if the Fed's independence is compromised, gold prices could soar to $4,500 per ounce [10] Group 6: Ongoing Developments - As of July 17, Trump has paused his actions, stating it is "unlikely" he will fire Powell but insists on a change within eight months [11] - Powell has requested an investigation into the renovation budget overruns and maintains a data-driven approach, hinting at potential rate cuts in September [12][13] - The conflict highlights a struggle between short-term political gains and long-term economic stability, with both parties facing significant challenges [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, as expressed by major bank CEOs in response to President Trump's discussions about potentially firing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [2][4] - CEOs from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup publicly defended the Fed's independence, stating it is crucial for the U.S. economy and financial markets [2][3] - Concerns were raised that political pressure on the Fed could undermine its credibility and disrupt global markets, particularly affecting the status of U.S. Treasury securities and the dollar [4] Group 2 - The total assets of the banks led by the mentioned CEOs exceed $12 trillion, highlighting their significant influence in the financial sector [3] - Trump indicated he might have "justifiable reasons" to dismiss Powell, citing excessive spending on renovation projects, but later stated he does not plan to take any action [4] - Bank of America CEO Moynihan noted that the stability of the Fed is critical not only for the U.S. but also for the global economy, given the size of the U.S. economy and its debt [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Short-term gold is expected to oscillate in a strong manner within a range, and the medium- to long-term bullish view remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the new round of trade games in early August and the changes in interest rate cut expectations brought by the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting later in the month [1][3] - After silver was blocked at the $40 mark, it oscillated and declined in the short term. In the medium term, the three logics suppressing silver's elasticity are difficult to reverse. The medium-term view is bullish on the trend of silver but cautious about its elasticity [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In June, the US PPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year (expected +2.5%, previous value revised from +2.6% to +2.7%); month-on-month it was flat (expected +0.2%, previous value revised from +0.1% to +0.3%). Core PPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year (expected +2.7%, previous value revised from +3.0% to +3.2%); month-on-month it was flat (expected +0.2%, previous value revised from +0.1% to +0.4%) [2] - US President Trump stated that starting from August 1, a general tariff would be used to impose a tax rate slightly higher than 10% on small countries. Larger economies are discussing coordinated tariff agreements, and negotiations with the EU, Vietnam and other countries are progressing smoothly [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent proposed to increase the issuance of short-term Treasury bonds to disperse the debt repayment pressure under the high-interest rate environment, but this strategy has caused market concerns about the long-term credibility of the Treasury and refinancing risks [2] Price Logic - The price of precious metals oscillated during the day, and the short-term decline of the US dollar index at night drove the overall increase of precious metals. The US PPI data in June was slightly lower than expected, having little impact on sentiment [3] - The market's attention to the change of the Fed Chairman next year is increasing. In the second half of the year, besides the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut path, the emergence of a "shadow chairman" may reignite the market's concern about the Fed's independence [1][3] - Silver faced resistance at the $40 mark and then oscillated and declined in the short term. In the medium term, the three logics suppressing silver's elasticity are difficult to reverse, maintaining a bullish view on the trend of silver but cautious about its elasticity [3] Outlook - Weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and COMEX silver in the range of [36, 40] [3]