Group 1 - The core point of the article is the unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - This action has led to a sell-off in dollar assets, including the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. stock futures [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased, with traders estimating an 85% probability of a rate cut in September [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that if Trump can influence the Federal Reserve, it may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy, potentially boosting risk assets like stocks and gold in the long term [1] - Legal challenges are anticipated regarding Cook's dismissal, as his lawyer plans to file a lawsuit, which could take months to resolve [1] - The dollar index is currently facing resistance at 98.317 and support at 97.859, with potential further movements depending on price action [1]

谁也未曾预料到，一封在社交媒体上公开发布的信件，会彻底打破美联储自1913年成立以来长达112年的制度惯例。8月25日深夜，美国总统特朗普通过自己 的"真实社交"账号，突然发表了一封致美联储理事莉萨·库克的信件。他在信中直言，因库克涉嫌"房贷欺诈"，决定立即解除其职务。这是美联储百余年历 史上首次有总统直接开除联储理事，立刻引发了巨大震动。 库克方面很快作出回应。她的律师阿贝·洛厄尔指出，这种解雇举动"完全违法"，库克仍将继续履行理事职责。美联储随后也紧急发表声明，强调联储理事 的任期受到法律保护，不能轻易被罢免。这场突如其来的政治风暴不仅让双方可能走向法庭对峙，还直接冲击了全球市场对美元体系的信任。 在公开信中，特朗普指控库克曾在房贷文件上作虚假申报。他引用联邦住房金融署署长比尔·普尔特的说法，称库克在2021年分别把密歇根州和佐治亚州的 两处房产都申报为"主要住宅"，意图获得更低利率，并且这一情况已被报告至司法部。特朗普在信中详细说明，库克前后仅两周就分别签署了两份互相矛盾 的文件。对此，库克回应称，这些行为均发生在她担任联储理事之前。她通过发言人表示，自己会收集证据澄清，但绝不会主动辞职。 近来，特朗普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold reached a historic high of $3504.5 per ounce, driven by concerns over the independence and stability of the Federal Reserve, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Factors - The recent court case regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is seen as a historic test of the Fed's independence, with potential political pressures undermining policy stability, which could negatively impact the attractiveness of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, indirectly benefiting gold [2]. - Market analysts note that the rise in gold prices reflects concerns over institutional stability, with factors such as rising inflation, weak consumer sentiment, and expectations of interest rate cuts supporting the demand for gold [2]. - Recent U.S. economic data, including a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July, aligns with expectations and keeps inflation above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's call for immediate interest rate cuts to mitigate labor market risks has reinforced market expectations for a rate cut in September, with over 80% probability according to CME FedWatch tools [3]. - Analysts are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. employment report, with expectations of an increase of approximately 78,000 non-farm jobs in August, which could further bolster demand for gold if the data falls short of expectations [4]. - The interplay between political and economic risks, particularly regarding the ongoing tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve, suggests that market volatility may increase, with gold continuing to attract safe-haven investments but potentially experiencing more dramatic price movements [4].

Group 1 - The international gold price has been rising, with spot gold surpassing $3,500, reaching a peak of $3,508.49 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures hitting $3,578.4 per ounce, both setting historical highs [1] - The international gold price has increased for several consecutive days, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to heightened investor risk aversion. The gold price rose by 2.86% last week and recorded a cumulative increase of over 5% in August, marking the best monthly performance since April [4] - As of September 1, spot gold reached a high of $3,489.86 per ounce, just shy of the historical peak, while COMEX gold futures peaked at $3,557.1 per ounce, also at a historical high. COMEX gold futures have seen a nearly 35% increase year-to-date [4] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have risen in response to the international gold price surge, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao reporting increases in their gold product prices [4] - Concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and ongoing uncertainties in the trade war have kept the US dollar weak, resulting in increased capital flow into the precious metals sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The warning from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve's independence highlights a growing tension between U.S. politics and monetary policy, which could have profound implications for both the U.S. and global economies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the effectiveness and credibility of monetary policy, as historical instances of political interference have led to inflation spikes, currency devaluation, and stock market declines [1][2]. - Trump's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve, including threats against Chairman Powell and legal actions against Governor Lisa Cook, reflect a desire for direct influence over monetary policy, particularly in terms of interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is currently navigating a delicate balance in its monetary policy decisions, with inflation data remaining above the 2% target and concerns about a weakening labor market following a disappointing July employment report [2]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September are high, with nearly 90% probability, indicating concerns over economic slowdown and a potential shift towards more accommodative policies [2]. Group 3: Global Financial Implications - Erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to significant uncertainty in global financial markets, as the dollar's status as the primary reserve currency is partly based on the strength and independence of its monetary policy [3]. - A loss of confidence in U.S. dollar assets could result in capital outflows, dollar depreciation, and potential ripple effects across global financial markets, impacting borrowing costs, financial stability, and the global trade and investment landscape [3].

Core Insights - Gold prices surged by 2.3% last week, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook by President Trump, which may increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Bloomberg highlights that the decision regarding Cook could impact the future of the Federal Reserve, as concerns over its independence may weaken investor confidence in the U.S. [1] - The recent ruling by a U.S. appeals court declaring most tariffs illegal adds to market uncertainty, further enhancing gold's appeal [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts predict gold prices could break through $3,450 per ounce and potentially challenge the record high of $3,500 per ounce due to ongoing concerns about the Fed's independence and trade war uncertainties [2] - The current trend indicates that if buying momentum continues, gold prices may rise above $3,500 per ounce, with resistance levels at $3,550 and $3,600 [2] - Conversely, if gold prices fall below the June 16 high of $3,452 per ounce, they may decline towards the July 23 high of $3,438 per ounce, with a potential drop to $3,400 [2] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish trend, with resistance levels at $3,500, $3,510, and $3,520, while support levels are at $3,479, $3,466, and $3,453 [3] - The momentum is strong, with a quantitative cycle exceeding three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [3] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include the Eurozone's August CPI year-on-year and month-on-month initial values, as well as the U.S. August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value and ISM Manufacturing PMI [4]

Group 1: Gold Market - Economists express concerns that the Federal Reserve may lose its independence in setting interest rates due to Trump's actions, with 25% fearing this could happen before the end of his term in 2029 [1] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates an 89.6% probability of a rate cut in September, with a 47.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October [1] - Gold prices have been rising, nearing the historical high of $3500, with no immediate signs of a peak; short-term support is at $3466 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is crucial, especially after the last meeting announced an increase in production by 547,000 barrels per day [3] - The U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of 13.58 million barrels per day in June, while the IEA warns of a global supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day, significantly outpacing demand growth of 700,000 barrels per day [3] - Oil prices have been fluctuating between $62 and $65 since mid-August, with a potential for further declines if the price does not break above $65 [3] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop at the end of July and have been fluctuating between $4.32 and $4.50 in August, indicating a potential for further declines [6] - A short-term breakout above $4.50 was not sustained, with resistance at $4.51 and support at $4.46 [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index shows a weak downward trend, recently bouncing back from the support level around 41800; a stable position above 42400 could indicate a return to an upward trend [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence while acknowledging past decision-making errors [2][3] - Treasury Secretary Bessent supports President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, indicating dissatisfaction with the Fed's past decisions [2][3] - There are concerns that the dismissal of Cook is aimed at allowing Trump to appoint allies to the Federal Reserve Board, which could influence its majority [3][4] Group 2 - Bessent criticized the Federal Reserve for not conducting an independent review of Cook's alleged misconduct regarding mortgage applications [4] - Cook's defense states that any alleged misconduct occurred before her Senate confirmation and is unrelated to her duties as a governor [4] - Bessent urges the Senate to quickly confirm Stephen Milan as a temporary board member to fill the vacancy left by Adrienne Kugler's resignation [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to increased investment in precious metals, with gold approaching its previous high and silver breaking through $40, reaching its highest level since 2011. The A - share market sentiment remains strong, and trading volume is still high. The US government's influence on the Federal Reserve is strengthening, and the US dollar maintains a weak trend. The stock index futures market is expected to remain bullish in the short term, and the US stock index is expected to fluctuate upward due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][3][4]. - In the commodity market, the supply and demand of various products show different trends. For example, the production of red dates in Xinjiang is normal, and the production of polycrystalline silicon may increase in September. The price trends of different commodities also vary, with some expected to be volatile, some to decline slightly, and some to have potential upward momentum [5][56]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary stated that the Federal Reserve should be independent but has made many mistakes. Market concerns about its independence have led to a strong rise in precious metals. The expected trend of gold is bullish but with increased volatility. Whether it can break through the previous high remains to be seen [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The cross - regional traffic volume during the summer vacation increased by 7% year - on - year, and the SCO issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development. The A - share market sentiment is strong, and trading volume is high. It is recommended to allocate the stock indices evenly [16][17][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Treasury Secretary's statement implies that the US government's influence on the Federal Reserve is strengthening, and the US dollar is expected to remain weak [23][24]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence are hard to ease, but short - term expectations of interest rate cuts support the risk appetite of the US stock market. The index is expected to fluctuate upward [25][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through reverse repurchase operations. There are opportunities to go long on treasury bonds, but the rhythm needs to be grasped [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In August, the national soybean crushing volume increased, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills rose slightly. The futures price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of the US balance sheet and Sino - US relations [29][30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In September, the arrival of imported rapeseed is expected to decrease significantly, and the export of Malaysian palm oil in August increased by 10.22% month - on - month. It is recommended to gradually lay out long positions and pay attention to the production in August and the MPOB report [32][33][34]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net short position of raw sugar increased, and the export of Indian sugar in the 2025/26 season may reach 200,000 tons. The domestic sugar market is under pressure from imported processed sugar, but the downside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on the 1 - month contract on dips [35][36][38]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch has stabilized. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price difference between rice and flour is at a low level. Attention should be paid to the driving factors for widening the price difference [40]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory days of feed enterprises in August decreased month - on - month but were still higher than the same period last year. The futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [41][42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in August increased year - on - year, and the heavy - truck sales increased by 35%. The steel price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to treat the steel price with a callback mindset [43][44][47]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - During the summer vacation, the national railway transported 2.43 billion tons of thermal coal. The price of steam coal is expected to decline slightly seasonally and maintain a range of 650 - 700 yuan [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The CMI index in August increased year - on - year. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile, and short - selling should be cautious [49][50]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The growth of red dates in Xinjiang is normal and entering the sugar - increasing period. The futures price is in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [51][52]. 2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Some coal mines are operating normally, and the supply is affected by safety inspections. The demand side is under pressure, and the futures price is expected to be volatile [53][54]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polycrystalline Silicon) - There are many positive news, but the production in September may increase. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in time and consider reverse arbitrage opportunities between November and December [56][58][59]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel industry in Indonesia is operating normally. The raw material price is firm, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low levels [60][61][62]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is less than expected. The short - term price is expected to be in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [63][64]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The merger of Sayona and Piedmont was completed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities after de - stocking and the strengthening of the basis, as well as positive arbitrage opportunities [65][66]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price is weak, and the domestic supply - demand situation is expected to turn from loose to tight. It is recommended to consider long positions at low levels and pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [69][70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Traders plan to make large - scale deliveries of copper futures. The market is paying attention to the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on a single - side basis and wait and see on an arbitrage basis [71][73][74]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory has increased, and the LME zinc price is strong. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [75][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG in East China is stable, and the 9 - month CP price remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of upward valuation repair of CP [77][78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The supply of Nayara refinery depends entirely on Russia. The oil price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price is weak, and the supply - demand situation has not changed significantly. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [82][83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has declined, and the basis has weakened. The supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [85][87][88]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory has decreased, mainly due to the reduction of refinery production. It is recommended to wait and see [87][88][89]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity utilization rate of melamine has increased. The supply of urea is under pressure, and the demand is not strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the new Indian tender [90][91]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has been slightly adjusted downward, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season. The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee is under pressure [92][93]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene has increased. The short - term inventory pressure may slow down, but the outlook in the fourth quarter is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy [94][95]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash has decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [97]. 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The glass market is under pressure, and it is recommended to focus on arbitrage strategies of going long on glass and short on soda ash when the price difference widens [98]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The throughput of the Port of Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia increased by 15.4% in the first half of the year. The spot freight rate is weak, and the supply pressure is high from late September to early October. The 10 - month contract has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to the support at 1,250 [99][100].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses concerns among economists regarding the potential impact of the Trump administration's pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly after the term of Chairman Powell ends next year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Concerns - A survey of 94 economists indicates that many believe the Trump administration's interference could undermine the Federal Reserve's ability to manage inflation through interest rate setting [2][3]. - Economists warn that investors may be underestimating the threat posed by the Trump administration to the Federal Reserve's independence, with some describing the future of U.S. monetary policy as "chaotic" and "disastrous" [3][5]. - 89 out of 94 economists surveyed stated that the ongoing conflict has already damaged the credibility of the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The confirmation hearing for Trump's latest nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Miran, is scheduled for September 4, with expectations that it will be expedited before the FOMC meeting on September 16-17 [2][9]. - The article highlights a significant test of the relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve, particularly following Trump's dismissal of board member Cook, which has led to legal disputes [4][9]. - Economists express concern that if Trump's pressure leads to a loss of the Federal Reserve's independence, it could harm the largest economy in the world [5][10]. Group 3: Future Projections - 42% of surveyed economists believe that Trump's actions could trigger strong inflationary pressures, while 35% see a potential loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds as a major risk [6]. - A majority of economists (52%) expect that the focus of the Federal Reserve will shift after Powell's term ends, prioritizing government borrowing costs and employment over price stability [5]. - Despite the potential changes, over a quarter of economists remain cautiously optimistic, predicting that the Federal Reserve will still be able to fulfill its responsibilities, albeit with reduced independence [5].