当地时间周五，美联储新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰表示，在本周利率决议前，他仅与总统特朗普进行了简短 交谈，并未受到任何关于如何投票的压力。 在本周的美联储利率决议上，在12名有投票权的美联储官员中，11人支持降息25个基点。而米兰是唯一 的反对者，在本周被确认为美联储理事会成员之前，他曾担任白宫高级顾问。 米兰主张更大幅度地降息50个基点，他称这一决定完全出于独立判断。"我会根据自己对数据和经济的 解读做独立分析，我所做的就只有这些，也仅限于这些。" 米兰强调："周二早上他打电话来祝贺我就职，仅此而已。我没有与他讨论如何投票，也没有透露我在 《经济预测摘要》中'点阵图'的位置。" 点阵图显示，在19名与会者中，有7人预计今年不会再降息，另有两人预计只会再降息一次。这些预测 还显示，在目前对经济活动稳健的展望下，大多数官员预计明年不会再多次降息。 自特朗普今年1月开启第二个任期以来，围绕美联储独立性的质疑不断升温。 特朗普一直强烈要求美联储大幅降息，并公开对主席鲍威尔进行人身攻击，称其为"太慢先生"。相比之 下，历届政府对美联储的压力通常更为低调。 与此同时，特朗普还试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克，并表示在明年挑选鲍威尔 ...

特朗普不仅频繁批评鲍威尔，还寻求罢免美联储理事库克，并表示将对明年鲍威尔继任人选进行"宽松 政策立场测试"，要求候选人支持进一步降息。 外界曾质疑米兰担任理事前曾是总统经济顾问委员会负责人，却只采取"休假"而非辞职方式离职，可能 存在潜在利益冲突。对此，米兰回应称这些担忧"有些可笑"，并表示他只会任职至2026年1月。 "如果总统告诉我，他希望我在2026年1月后继续留任，我会立刻辞职，没有任何犹豫。"米兰说道。他 补充称，外界质疑反而促使他计划在下周一的讲话中"详细解释"自己与其他理事观点为何差异巨大，并 向公众进行全面说明。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储理事米兰周五接受采访时表示，在本周的利率决议前，他仅与美国总统特朗 普进行了简短通话，并未受到任何投票压力。 米兰透露，特朗普于周二上午致电祝贺他担任美联储理事，但双方并未讨论利率决策或经济预测相关内 容。米兰强调："我没有和他谈论我的投票立场。" 在本周的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上，美联储以11比1的投票结果决定降息25个基点，将联邦基 金利率区间降至4.00%-4.25%。米兰是唯一的反对票，他主张一次性降息50个基点，立场明显更为宽 松。他的 ...

on Monday, will you go into this so-called notion of a third mandate regarding moderate longer term rates. >> Oh, this is so silly. You know, I just have a personality uh that I like thoroughess and I like completeness.And so, of course, I'm going to look at the statutes and I'm going to look at what Congress told the Fed. And so I literally read So I think you're referring to an article that that said that uh because I I read the I literally quoted the Federal Reserve Act in the statutes that that assigned ...

美联储卡什卡利：国会对美联储独立性广泛赞赏。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the benchmark interest rate to between 4% and 4.25%, with plans for two more cuts this year, raising questions about whether this decision was influenced by political pressure or economic needs [1][3][12]. Economic Context - The primary reason for the rate cut is the slowdown in the U.S. job market, with employment growth significantly decreasing and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, indicating rising employment risks [3][12]. - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the current job market slowdown is a major concern for policymakers, and the rate cut aims to provide a buffer for the economy [3][12]. Political Dynamics - President Trump has been vocal in criticizing the Federal Reserve and has called for more aggressive rate cuts, leading to speculation about the influence of political pressure on the Fed's decision-making [1][5][6]. - The voting outcome for the rate cut showed internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with 10 out of 11 members supporting the cut, while one member, Stephen Moore, appointed by Trump, voted against it, advocating for a larger cut [8][10][12]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices initially surged, particularly in technology stocks, but later stabilized as investors recognized the underlying economic challenges that the rate cut does not fully address [16][18]. - The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields exhibited mixed reactions, indicating cautious market sentiment regarding the effectiveness of the rate cut in stabilizing the economy [16][18]. Future Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions, as internal divisions and external pressures from the Trump administration may influence upcoming decisions on interest rates [12][18]. - The balance between stabilizing the economy and maintaining independence from political influence presents a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve moving forward [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that Powell's decision to cut interest rates, despite the absence of clear recession signals, represents a high-risk policy gamble aimed at demonstrating the Federal Reserve's independence and fulfilling its dual mandate [3][4]. Economic Context - Powell faces unprecedented political opposition and economic uncertainty as his term nears its end, making current policy decisions more complex and risky than ever [3][4]. - The significant slowdown in the job market is a key factor prompting the Fed's rate cut, with recent data showing a drastic reduction in average job growth from 150,000 to 29,000 [4][5]. Structural vs. Cyclical Concerns - There are concerns that the Fed may misinterpret structural changes in the economy as temporary cyclical slowdowns, influenced by policies from the Trump administration that could permanently alter production capabilities [5]. - Experts warn against the risks of excessive rate cuts, as persistent inflation concerns among consumers and businesses may lead to sustained higher inflation [5]. Political Pressures and Internal Consensus - Maintaining internal consensus within the Fed amidst political pressures is a significant challenge for Powell, who has managed to secure support for the rate cut despite differing views on the economic outlook [7]. - The division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts indicates ongoing debates and potential challenges for Powell's leadership [7]. Market Reactions and Future Implications - The thriving stock market raises questions about consumer spending stability, as businesses invest heavily in AI infrastructure, but income growth may eventually lead to reduced spending [8]. - Powell's policy experiment could determine the future independence and effectiveness of the Fed, impacting not only the U.S. economy but also global monetary policy [8]. Historical Outcomes - The article outlines three potential historical outcomes of Powell's policy gamble: a successful "soft landing" akin to the mid-1990s, the risk of igniting inflation similar to the late 1960s, or the failure of rate cuts to prevent recession as seen in 1990, 2001, and 2007 [10].

Core Points - The article discusses the contrasting treatment of Treasury Secretary Becerra and Federal Reserve Governor Cook regarding mortgage fraud allegations, highlighting a double standard in political accountability [1][5][20] - It emphasizes the political implications of the "primary residence" designation in U.S. tax law and how it can be manipulated for financial benefits [3][6][14] - The article suggests that the independence of the Federal Reserve is being undermined by political interference, particularly from the Trump administration [17][20] Summary by Sections Political Accountability - Becerra's dual designation of two properties as "primary residences" was downplayed by experts, while Cook faced severe scrutiny for similar actions [1][3][5] - The article questions the motivations behind the Trump administration's focus on Cook, suggesting it is politically motivated rather than a genuine concern for legal integrity [5][8][20] Mortgage Fraud Allegations - The concept of "primary residence" is crucial for tax benefits, and Becerra's actions in 2007 are framed as a manipulation of this system [3][6] - Cook's designation of her Atlanta home as a "vacation home" while claiming tax benefits in Michigan led to accusations of fraud, despite local tax authorities finding no violations [5][11] Federal Reserve Independence - The article argues that the Federal Reserve's independence is increasingly compromised by political pressures, particularly from the Trump administration, which seeks to control the institution for political gain [17][20] - The rapid appointment and voting behavior of newly appointed officials like Milan raise concerns about the politicization of the Federal Reserve [10][17] Broader Implications - The manipulation of mortgage policies for political purposes is framed as a historical pattern that could lead to systemic financial issues, similar to the 2008 financial crisis [15][20] - The article concludes that the erosion of legal standards and accountability in political actions ultimately harms the general public [20]

Core Points - The article discusses the ongoing conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, highlighting allegations of mortgage fraud against Cook and the implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][4][17] - The situation escalated with Treasury Secretary Scott B. Benset facing similar allegations, raising questions about the integrity of financial officials in the current administration [9][17] Group 1: Trump vs. Cook - Trump accused Cook of mortgage fraud, claiming she misrepresented properties to obtain favorable loan rates, leading to his attempt to remove her from the Federal Reserve [4][8] - Cook denied the allegations and filed a lawsuit against Trump, asserting that the accusations were baseless and that she would not resign [4][8] - A federal court ruled in favor of Cook, temporarily blocking Trump's attempt to dismiss her, citing a lack of due process and affirming the independence of the Federal Reserve [8][16] Group 2: Benset's Controversy - Treasury Secretary Benset was reported to have similar issues regarding mortgage declarations, where he listed two properties as "primary residences," raising concerns about double standards [9][11] - Experts reviewed Benset's mortgage documents and found no evidence of wrongdoing, suggesting that inconsistencies can occur in loan applications [11][17] - Benset's previous statements about the need for accountability among financial officials now appear contradictory in light of his own situation [11][17] Group 3: Political Implications - The conflicts highlight a broader political struggle, with suspicions that Trump may be using these allegations to undermine Cook, who has opposed his economic policies [15][17] - The potential removal of Cook could shift the balance of power within the Federal Reserve, allowing Trump to appoint more aligned officials [15][17] - The article emphasizes concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and the implications of political interference in monetary policy [17]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, restarting a rate-cutting cycle that had been paused for nine months, with expectations of two more cuts by the end of the year, although uncertainties remain due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [1][2][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - The median of the latest dot plot indicates two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, an increase from the June dot plot [1] - The Federal Reserve has become more dovish due to deteriorating employment data and the delayed transmission of tariff-induced inflation to consumers, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be temporarily manageable [1][4] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of future rate cuts, indicating that the policy path remains uncertain and may change based on inflation and employment trends [4] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - The transmission of Trump's tariffs to inflation has not yet fully materialized, primarily due to companies stockpiling imports earlier this year, which has buffered inflation's impact on consumer prices [7] - As inventory is depleted, the inflationary effects of tariffs are expected to rise, suggesting potential upward pressure on inflation in the future [7] Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Despite political pressure from Trump, the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to remain intact due to legal protections and the checks and balances inherent in the U.S. political system [6] - The decision-making process of the Federal Reserve is highly professionalized and relies on data, making it difficult for political preferences to dominate outcomes [6] Group 4: Economic Predictions and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has raised its inflation expectations and postponed the timeline for achieving inflation targets to 2028, indicating a belief that inflation may remain stubborn in the medium to long term [7] - If core PCE data significantly exceeds expectations in the coming months, the Federal Reserve may need to shift its focus back to inflation, potentially halting rate cuts [7] - The resumption of the rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve opens up more space for domestic monetary policy adjustments, although the impact is expected to be limited [8]

新华财经华盛顿9月18日电据美国媒体报道，美国司法部18日将特朗普政府解雇美国联邦储备委员会理 事莉萨·库克案提交最高法院，并敦促其批准。 库克是首位出任美联储理事的非洲裔女性，由美国前任总统拜登提名上任。 （文章来源：新华社） 美国司法部在提交给最高法院的申请书中说，下级法院的裁决"是对最高法院许多先例的蔑视"。 有分析人士认为，该申请可能在最高法院引发一场有关美联储独立性的激烈争论。 特朗普8月25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解除库克职务。库克否认有任何不当行为，指认特朗普政 府让她走人是因为不满她的货币政策立场，并于8月28日提起诉讼。美国华盛顿特区联邦地区法院本月9 日作出裁决，暂时阻止库克遭解职。 特朗普政府本月11日向一家联邦上诉法院提出紧急申请，要求该法院在美联储货币政策会议前推翻下级 法院裁决，从而使特朗普能够解雇库克。这家联邦上诉法院15日裁定，库克可继续留任，驳回紧急申 请。 库克16日和17日参加美联储联邦公开市场委员会会议，并投票支持降息25个基点。 ...