Report Industry Investment Rating - Silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [5] Core Viewpoints - The independence of the Federal Reserve is being challenged, and if Trump's policies fail to boost the US economy effectively, the probability of the US entering stagflation will increase, which may further weaken the US's competitiveness and push up the price of US gold. Currently, US gold is around the key level of 3,500, and its further trend needs continuous observation [2] - Recent economic data shows that the US economy remains resilient. If there are significant interest rate cuts, the probability of rising inflation will increase, and the US economy and the US dollar will face the risk of further capital outflows. At that time, safe-haven assets will strengthen [3] - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. Due to the increasing expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the impact on the Fed's independence, the US dollar index has been weakening, leading to a significant appreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate. However, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has not had a continuous impact on precious metals, and the short-term fluctuations caused by the exchange rate are limited [4] - The market believes that a September interest rate cut is highly likely, and in the future, the market will focus on the magnitude of the rate cut. The influence on the Fed's independence has increased the safe-haven property of gold, causing US gold to rise again. The subsequent trends of gold and silver may still be synchronized and need continuous observation [30] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Concerns about the Fed's independence have boosted the price of gold. The subsequent trends of gold and silver may be synchronized, but the upward trend of silver is affected by the fluctuations of gold [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, sued President Trump over his attempt to fire her. The US second-quarter GDP and core PCE price index data were released, and the US Treasury Secretary mentioned the interview process for the Fed chair position [13][15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US economic data shows high resilience, with positive growth in GDP, retail sales, and core PCE price index, although there are some weaknesses in non-manufacturing and consumption [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, and the US and the EU have reached a new trade agreement. The US may also increase tariffs on chips and semiconductors [20] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - Initial jobless claims decreased, and the service industry PMI reached a new high. The price of crude oil was affected by production cuts, and the prices of domestic and foreign copper showed different trends. With the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in September, high-risk preference assets may strengthen [21] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. The weakening of the US dollar has led to the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, but its impact on gold is limited [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The market believes a September interest rate cut is likely, and the focus will be on the rate cut magnitude. The influence on the Fed's independence has increased the safe-haven property of gold. The subsequent trends of gold and silver need continuous observation [30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures reaching a peak of $3,552.9 per ounce on September 1, and a monthly increase of 4.81% in August, marking the best performance since April [1] - The primary drivers for the recent surge in gold prices are the expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and challenges to the credibility of the US dollar, particularly following President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, which raised concerns about the independence of the Fed [1] - The ongoing tension between Trump and the Federal Reserve is viewed as a "black swan" event that could disrupt the gold market, potentially undermining trust in the US dollar and leading to a long-term challenge to its status as a global reserve currency [1] Group 2 - The strategy team at Guosen Securities suggests that after a period of market volatility, gold is poised for a new round of investment opportunities, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - According to Juan Carlos Artigas from the World Gold Council, if market expectations for interest rate cuts and moderate growth materialize, gold prices may remain stable or see slight increases in the second half of the year; however, if economic and financial risks escalate, gold could rise by 10% to 15% [2] - The positive trend of central bank gold purchases and the approaching consumption peak are expected to provide solid support for gold prices [2]

Group 1 - The San Francisco Fed President Daly hinted at a potential interest rate cut, stating that the Fed "needs to recalibrate policy soon" to better align with the economy [1][3][5] - The market reacted swiftly, raising the probability of a rate cut in September to 86.9%, indicating a significant shift in the Fed's policy stance [1][3] - Daly acknowledged that tariff-induced price increases are temporary and emphasized the need for timely action to avoid harming the labor market [5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. government debt has reached $37 trillion, with substantial interest payments, prompting discussions on lowering interest rates to reduce fiscal burdens [7][9] - President Trump has been exerting pressure on the Fed, criticizing Chairman Powell and attempting to influence the Fed's board by nominating allies [9][17] - Concurrently, the offshore RMB surged past the 7.12 mark, reaching its highest level since November 2024, driven by the Fed's signals and China's economic recovery [3][11][19] Group 3 - The RMB's appreciation is attributed to the Fed's anticipated rate cuts and a robust recovery in China's economic fundamentals, with exports increasing by 6.1% from January to July [11][13] - China's fiscal policy has been proactive, with a significant increase in government debt issuance and spending, supporting economic growth [13][15] - International financial institutions are increasingly favoring RMB assets, with 30% of central banks indicating plans to increase their RMB asset allocations [15][19] Group 4 - The contrasting financial strategies of the U.S. and China highlight a divergence in approaches, with the U.S. facing potential political interference in monetary policy while China maintains a market-driven approach [17][19] - The potential for the RMB to return to the "6 era" could further enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, drawing more foreign investment [19]

Group 1: Central Bank Independence - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that the loss of independence by the Federal Reserve would pose a "serious threat" to the global economy [1][2] - Lagarde emphasized that if President Trump successfully exerts control over the Fed, it would lead to concerns about the stability of the U.S. economy and have global repercussions [2] Group 2: European Inflation Control - Lagarde stated that inflation in the Eurozone has reached the target level of 2%, and the ECB will continue to take necessary measures to maintain price stability [3] - The market is anticipating the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, as many decision-makers are satisfied with the current 2% rate [5] Group 3: Political Instability in France - Lagarde expressed concern over the potential collapse of any Eurozone government, particularly highlighting the political crisis in France where the Prime Minister may face a vote of no confidence [8] - The political turmoil has led to increased risk premiums on French bonds, with borrowing costs rising relative to Germany [8][9] - Lagarde noted that France, despite being a respected borrower, is now associated with higher risk premiums, indicating a need for disciplined public finances to maintain credibility in financial markets [9]

Group 1 - Global equity funds experienced a decline in demand due to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, with only $2.96 billion in inflows, the lowest since the week of August 6 when there was a net outflow of $7.64 billion [2] - European equity funds saw a net inflow of $876 million, significantly lower than the previous week's inflow of approximately $9.88 billion [5] - Financial sector equity funds saw a surge in demand with a net inflow of $1.52 billion, marking the largest single-week inflow in eight months [5] Group 2 - Global bond funds continued to attract investors for the 19th consecutive week, with a net inflow of $14.42 billion [8] - Short-term bond funds achieved net purchases for the ninth week in a row, attracting $2.59 billion [8] - Emerging market equity funds experienced a net outflow of $310 million for the third time in four weeks, while emerging market bond funds saw a net inflow of $9.85 billion [11]

Core Points - Trump is leveraging his executive power to suppress political opponents, particularly Democrats, and is intervening in local affairs to fulfill his law-and-order political promises, thereby consolidating his base [1] - These controversial actions are seen as a way for Trump to energize his core supporters and set the political agenda ahead of the midterm elections [1] Group 1: Chicago Intervention - Trump is planning to deploy federal troops to Chicago, a city managed by Democrats, citing the need to combat crime [3] - Chicago's crime rate has actually decreased by 22% in the first half of the year, suggesting that Trump's actions are more politically symbolic than a response to actual security needs [3] - Local Democratic leaders have strongly opposed Trump's intervention, labeling it as an unwarranted federal overreach [3] Group 2: Security for Kamala Harris - Trump has revoked the Secret Service protection for former Vice President Kamala Harris, which was legally extended beyond the standard six-month period [4][5] - This decision has drawn sharp criticism from Democratic officials, who view it as a politically motivated act of retaliation [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Interference - Trump is attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook amid allegations of misconduct, which many see as a direct attack on the Fed's independence [7][8] - The move is perceived as an effort to install a more compliant member who would support looser monetary policies, potentially leading to higher inflation [10] - The situation raises concerns about the rule of law in the U.S. and its implications for the global economy [10][11]

欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德表示，若美联储失去其独立性，将给这个世界造成"严重威胁"。但拉 加德周一在接受Radio Classique电台采访时表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将会发现要把美国央行置于控 制之下"非常困难"，理由是法律先例阻止他免去美联储理事。"如果他真的做到了，我认为那将对美国 经济和全球经济构成非常严重的威胁。"她说，"货币政策显然对美国维持物价稳定和确保最佳就业有影 响。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a strong performance on September 1, with Shanghai gold futures priced at 801.80 CNY per gram, up 2.24%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9779.00 CNY per kilogram, up 4.20% [1] - International precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold priced at 3554.80 CNY per ounce, up 1.10%, and COMEX silver at 41.52 USD per ounce, up 1.89% [1] - Recent trends indicate a focus on the shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed, which has led to increased market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 2 - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a 12.6% probability of maintaining interest rates in September, while there is an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut [2] - By October, the probability of maintaining rates is projected at 5.6%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 45.8% and a cumulative 50 basis point cut at 48.6% [2]

欧洲央行行长拉加德：美联储失去独立性将是全世界的担忧。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Global Central Bank Dynamics - Federal Reserve Governor Cook has filed a federal lawsuit challenging the legality of Trump's dismissal, focusing on the interpretation of the "just cause" clause in the Federal Reserve Act, with the case potentially reaching the Supreme Court [1] - Trump’s administration is considering increasing its influence over the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, including reviewing the selection process for bank presidents [1] - The Federal Reserve responded to Cook's lawsuit, stating that governors have term and dismissal protections [1] Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in September, expecting further cuts in the next 3 to 6 months unless there is a significant deterioration in August employment data [2] - New York Fed President Williams believes it is appropriate to lower rates at the right time, indicating that current policy remains moderately restrictive [2] - San Francisco Fed President Daly suggests it is time to adjust policy due to conflicting inflation and employment targets [2] - Dallas Fed President Logan emphasizes the need for improved communication regarding interest rate paths and economic outlook [2] European Central Bank Insights - ECB's Rehn states that inflation risks are "tilted to the downside," indicating potential for future rate cuts [2] - The U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on European exports could slow Eurozone growth by "several percentage points" [2] Other Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Hungary has set its benchmark interest rate at 6.5%, indicating that the fight against inflation is not over [3] - The Bank of the Philippines has cut rates by 25 basis points, with the possibility of further cuts [4] - The Bank of Brazil's survey shows economists expect GDP growth of 1.86% in 2026 and an inflation rate of 4.86% for 2025 [5] - The Bank of Indonesia will continue to participate in the foreign exchange market to maintain the Rupiah's alignment with fundamentals [6] Market Observations - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased following Trump's dismissal of Cook, leading to a decline in the dollar [7] - Analysts predict the Bank of England may slow its quantitative tightening pace to £70 billion over the next 12 months due to rising yield concerns [8] - Swiss bank analysts suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia may delay its rate cut path due to unexpectedly high CPI readings [8] - The Philippine central bank appears to be nearing the end of its easing cycle, with expectations for one more rate cut this year [9]