Group 1: Property Price Trends - The private residential price index in Hong Kong for March 2025 is reported at 284.2 points, a decrease of 0.49% from February's 285.6 points, marking a continuous decline for four months and a cumulative drop of 2.50%, reaching the lowest level in over 8.5 years since August 2016 [1] - Compared to the historical peak of 398.1 points in September 2021, property prices have decreased by 28.61% [1] - The first quarter of this year saw a cumulative price drop of 1.73%, with March's decline slightly narrowing to 0.49%, reflecting a slight improvement in market conditions in late February and early March, although prices remain low due to new developments being launched at lower prices [1] Group 2: Future Market Outlook - Looking ahead to April, despite a relatively decent market in late March, the overall sentiment may be hindered by a sharp decline in global and Hong Kong stock markets, potentially leading to a further price drop of around 0.8% in April [1] - There are expectations that a slowdown in the trade war and potential interest rate cuts by the US in May or June could provide some support to the property market, with hopes for a narrowing of price declines in May and stabilization in June [1] - The second quarter is anticipated to see an additional decline of approximately 1.3%, with an overall expected drop of about 3% in property prices for the first half of the year [1] Group 3: Rental Market Trends - The rental index in Hong Kong for March has increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking a total increase of 0.73% over four consecutive months, reaching a six-month high, indicating a stable upward trend in the rental market [2] - The influx of professionals and a significant number of international students expected to seek rental properties in the second quarter are anticipated to drive the rental index up, with a projected increase of 1.71% for the quarter, outperforming the first quarter [2] - For the first half of the year, rental prices are expected to rise by 2.13% [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a significant rebound in global markets, with the Hang Seng Index gaining 585 points or 2.74%, closing at 21,980 points, following a previous increase of 480 points or 2.30% [2] - The U.S. stock market also saw strong gains, with the S&P 500 rising 4.59% and the Nasdaq increasing by 6.7%, attributed to a softening stance on tariffs by President Trump [2] - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China indicated a more optimistic outlook on the economy, emphasizing the need to stabilize the foundation for economic recovery amidst external shocks [2][3] Group 2: Economic Policies and Focus Areas - The meeting introduced the "Four Stabilities" concept, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, signaling a strong commitment to high-quality development in response to external uncertainties [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing consumer spending and increasing income for low- and middle-income groups, alongside a commitment to maintaining stability in the real estate market [2][3] Group 3: Company Analysis - BYD (1211.HK) - BYD's performance met expectations, with strong export growth contributing to a robust profit matrix [5] - The company is set to launch multiple new models in 2025, including updates to the Haval brand and the Tank series, aimed at enhancing product structure [10] Group 4: Company Analysis - Great Wall Motors (2333.HK) - Great Wall Motors reported a Q1 wholesale volume of 256,800 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 32.3% [7] - The company's Q1 revenue was 40.019 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year and 33.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.751 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year decrease of 45.7% [8] - The report notes that the company's Q1 gross margin was 17.84%, with sales expenses increasing by 34.6% year-on-year due to accelerated investments in direct sales and new model launches [9] Group 5: Company Analysis - China Xuyang (1907.HK) - The report indicates that China Xuyang's coking and chemical business faced pressure from falling coking prices, with a projected revenue decline of 2.4% for the year [12] - The chemical business, however, showed growth with a 10% increase in revenue, driven by higher sales volumes of caprolactam [13] - The company is expanding its hydrogen energy business, with a significant increase in hydrogen sales, and plans to enhance its position in the fuel cell sector [13]

x30003 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 28 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 甲醇 | 周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 甲醇周报 专业研究·创造价值 伊朗港口爆炸影响有限 甲醇偏弱运行 核心观点 甲醇：受美国释放积极信号，计划降低关税战的利多消息提振， 宏观因子有所改善。与此同时，甲醇下游需求因子开始发力，在烯烃 盘面利润回归正值，烯烃消费有所增强，叠加港口库存和内陆社库延 续去化节奏，基本面逐渐好转。在偏多因子主导下，本周国内甲醇期 货 2509 合约呈现震荡偏强的走势，当周期价累计涨幅达 1.41%至 2298 元/吨。5-9 月 ...

4 正文目录 1 市场回顾 .....................................................................4 1.1 现货价格振荡回升，基差走阔 ............................................... 4 1.2 期价上涨，月差转为升水 ................................................... 4 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 25 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 4 月 28 日 橡胶周报 利空因素消化 橡胶震荡企稳 核心观点 2 ...

Core Points - Trump's unpredictable actions in his second term have led to a significant shift in U.S. foreign relations, distancing allies and creating global instability [1][2] - A recent poll indicates Trump's approval rating has dropped to 39%, the lowest for any U.S. president in their first 100 days, with a majority of Americans concerned about his economic policies [1][5] - Experts warn that the current global order, established post-World War II, is under threat due to Trump's unilateral approach and disregard for multilateral organizations [6][11] Group 1: Domestic Impact - 72% of Americans believe Trump's economic policies could lead to a recession, and 53% feel the economy has worsened since he took office [1] - Trump's actions have been criticized domestically for contributing to a perceived "democratic backslide," including attacks on judges and immigration policies [2] Group 2: International Relations - Trump's "America First" agenda has alienated allies and emboldened adversaries, raising questions about the future of U.S. foreign policy [2][10] - European nations are increasing defense spending and reducing reliance on U.S. military support in response to Trump's policies [4][9] Group 3: Economic Policies - Trump's imposition of tariffs is seen as a disruptive force in global markets, with potential risks of economic slowdown and recession [6][11] - The administration's approach to trade negotiations is characterized by a lack of clarity regarding long-term goals, leading to uncertainty among trading partners [6][10] Group 4: Global Order - The established global order based on free trade and rule of law is being challenged, with Trump's actions viewed as a departure from traditional U.S. leadership [6][11] - Concerns are growing that Trump's foreign policy may lead to a realignment of global alliances, with some countries considering closer ties with China as a counterbalance [10]

【环球时报报道 记者 邢晓婧】日本首相石破茂于4月27日至30日出访越南和菲律宾，计划分别与两国领导人举行会谈，就美国关税政策对世界经 济的影响等议题交换意见。日媒报道称，考虑到中国"不断加强海洋活动"，石破茂此访有意强化与相关国家在安全保障领域的合作。 辽宁大学美国与东亚研究院院长吕超27日在接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示，受到美国关税政策影响，日本与美国的谈判进展不顺利，日本国 内有强烈呼声希望尽快改善与中国的关系，在应对美国发动的"关税战"中，无论是对开拓市场，还是抵消经济损失，与中国寻求合作对日本而言 非常重要。 吕超表示，东盟国家近年来经济形势向好，成为新的经济增长点，引起国际社会普遍关注。在美国对全世界实行关税大战的情况下，日本访问东 盟国家，试图与其加强联系、巩固并开拓新的市场，从外交角度而言这种做法无可厚非。他同时表示，"但日本与东盟发展关系不应针对第三方。 日本一边派出执政党要员接连访华，一边又拉拢周边国家'应对中国'，一连串的举动反映出日本的复杂心态。" 吕超称，值得注意的是，日美当前虽因关税问题陷入僵持阶段，但就配合美国所谓"印太战略"而言，日本还是和美国站在一边，不排除在菲律宾 继续挑 ...

Group 1 - The report analyzes Trump's "tariff war" as a strategic maneuver that significantly impacts the global economic landscape, particularly affecting China and the U.S. economy [1][16] - Trump's psychological bottom line includes a 10% baseline tariff on global imports, protective tariffs on key industries like automobiles, and a focus on curbing China's rise while integrating North America [3][20] - The report highlights that Trump's unpredictable behavior serves as a strategy to maintain negotiation leverage, creating uncertainty for other economies [4][22] Group 2 - Different economies respond variably to the U.S. tariff war, categorized into resistance and concession, with China and Canada showing strong resistance while others like Mexico and Vietnam are forced to concede [6][26] - China is identified as the most resolute in its countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, demonstrating both capability and determination to retaliate effectively [27][28] - The report suggests that Canada has effectively countered U.S. tariffs due to its economic ties with the U.S., while Mexico's response has been more subdued due to its dependent economic status [35][36] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the need for China to build alliances and expand its market presence to enhance its negotiating power against the U.S. [10][30] - It discusses the potential for China to fill the market void left by the U.S. as it adopts a more isolationist trade policy, positioning itself as a global consumer market leader [10][31] - The analysis concludes that the ongoing tariff situation is unsustainable for the U.S., with potential adjustments in tariff rates likely as negotiations progress [31][32]

Group 1 - The article discusses the strategic misjudgment by the U.S. regarding China, highlighting that the U.S. underestimated China's determination and response to tariffs [1][3] - It mentions that the U.S. has faced significant challenges in its trade war with China, with American retailers warning about the consequences of ongoing tariffs [1][5] - The article indicates that China has successfully shifted its orders from the U.S. to other countries, making it difficult for the U.S. to revert to previous trade conditions even if it softens its stance [7] Group 2 - The article points out that the U.S. is struggling with internal economic pressures, including the Federal Reserve's decision not to lower interest rates amidst a challenging trade environment [5] - It emphasizes that the U.S. has not secured any new trade agreements with other countries, which complicates its position in the ongoing trade conflict [7] - The article suggests that the timeline for significant changes in U.S. trade policy is limited, as the upcoming midterm elections may restrict the administration's ability to enact substantial reforms [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian honey industry is facing significant challenges due to potential 25% tariffs on agricultural products imposed by the U.S., prompting Canadian beekeeping companies to seek alternative markets outside the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The threat of a 25% tariff on Canadian agricultural products, including honey, is making the already low-margin beekeeping industry more difficult to sustain [3] - If the tariffs are implemented, Canadian honey companies may need to raise prices by nearly 30%, leading to an increase of $3 to $4 per bottle for U.S. consumers [5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is causing Canadian beekeepers to actively explore markets beyond the U.S. [7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Canada produces approximately 34 million kilograms of honey annually, with about 50% allocated for export, and the U.S. market accounts for 80% to 90% of these exports [7] - Canadian beekeepers are concerned that retaliatory measures from Canada could also lead to high tariffs on imported queen bees, which are primarily sourced from the U.S. [7] - Companies are planning to breed their own queen bees and are identifying potential buyers in Asian markets such as Japan and South Korea, as well as in the Middle East [9]

当地时间4月25日，美国总统特朗普表示，除非中国做出实质性让步，否则不会取消对华加征的关税。 对于美方在对华关税问题上不断释放混乱甚至相互矛盾的信号，中国驻美国使馆发言人25日晚强调，如 果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该纠正错误，停止威胁讹诈，彻底取消所有对华单边关税措 施。一边说要同中方达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也是行不通 的。 "贸易战、关税战没有赢家""中国主张通过平等对话协商解决贸易和关税争议，也将坚定维护自身正当 权益"。 近日，中国财政部部长蓝佛安和央行行长潘功胜在华盛顿出席多个国际性会议，亦就美国滥施关税再次 亮明中方立场。 本周以来，美国政府多次表示正与中国进行谈判，并期望达成一项"公平的协议"。这令美股连日上涨， 更让舆论猜测，中美官员是否会在近期会晤。 但对于美方言论，中方以"假消息"定性美方说辞。 作为对外经贸关系的主管部门，中国商务部24日强调，目前中美之间未进行任何经贸谈判，任何关于中 美经贸谈判进展的说法都是捕风捉影，没有事实依据。 中国外交部也连续两日在记者会上表示中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，奉劝"美方不要混 淆视听"。 为何 ...