瑞达期货研究院 「2025.04.25」 沪铅市场周报 关税风波压制期价 恐慌情绪衰减反弹 业 务 咨 询 研究员 添 加 客 服 :王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 u 行情回顾：本周沪铅期货在供需两弱格局下呈现震荡走势。从期货市场来看，沪期铅主力合约2506 表现活跃本周涨幅0.53%。受到对等关税影响，市场情绪开始慢慢回暖，价格开始小幅反弹，受到国 外需求走弱影响，沪铅整体价格依旧处于承压状态，从持仓角度来看，目前多头情绪开始减弱，周 度来看多头持仓减少高于空头。 u 行情展望：供应端原生铅炼厂此前基本恢复生产，开工回升，铅价接连下跌，致使再生铅亏损压力 扩大，部分企业下调废电瓶报价，但由于市场货源有限，废电瓶价格在小幅下滑后再度报涨。随着 二季度进入传统淡季，电池替换需求减少，再生铅后续提产难度加大，整体再生铅供应增量有限。 在此情况下，再生铅炼厂受亏损及原料制约，被迫下调开工率。需求端看，目前市场处于消费淡季， 五一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon last week was 70,000 tons, remaining flat week-on-week. The demand was 84,000 tons, a 47.37% increase week-on-week, indicating a rising demand. The inventory of polysilicon and silicone was at a high level, while the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was at a low level. The cost support in Xinjiang's dry season has increased [6]. - The basis on April 24 showed that the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 625 yuan/ton for the 06 contract, indicating a spot premium over futures, which is a bullish signal. The social inventory decreased by 0.16% week-on-week, the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 6.44%, and the main port inventory decreased by 1.44%, which is a bearish signal. The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed below the MA20, which is a bearish signal. The net position of the main players was short, with a decrease in short positions, which is a bearish signal [6]. - The supply schedule is expected to decrease, remaining around the historical average level. The demand is expected to recover, and the cost support is expected to increase. The industrial silicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,790 - 8,960 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - The production of polysilicon last week was 22,300 tons, a 2.76% increase week-on-week. The production schedule for April is predicted to be 100,900 tons, a 4.99% increase month-on-month. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is expected to continue to increase, indicating a continuous recovery in overall demand. The cost support is expected to remain stable [9]. - The basis on April 24 showed that the price of N-type polysilicon was 42,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,625 yuan/ton for the 06 contract, indicating a spot premium over futures, which is a bullish signal. The weekly inventory was 251,000 tons, a 2.86% increase week-on-week, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history, which is a bearish signal. The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed below the MA20, which is a bearish signal. The net position of the main players was long, with a decrease in long positions, which is a bullish signal [10]. - The supply schedule is expected to continue to increase, and the demand is expected to continue to recover. The cost support is expected to remain stable. The polysilicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 38,880 - 39,870 yuan/ton [9]. Overall Market - The report indicates that the market is affected by factors such as cost support, production and supply schedules, and demand recovery. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market, and the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [6][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply remained stable last week, while the demand increased significantly. The inventory situation varied among different downstream products, and the cost support increased. The basis, inventory, disk, and main player positions provided a mixed set of signals. The price is expected to fluctuate in a specific range [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The production and demand are both showing an upward trend. The cost support is stable, and the basis, inventory, disk, and main player positions also present a combination of bullish and bearish signals. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon**: The report provides detailed data on the production, demand, inventory, cost, and price of industrial silicon, as well as the production, inventory, and price of its downstream products such as silicone, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [6][16][18]. - **Polysilicon**: The report presents data on the production, demand, inventory, cost, and price of polysilicon, as well as the production, inventory, and price of its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [9][10][18]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The report shows the price, basis, inventory, and production data of different contracts of industrial silicon, as well as the price and production data of its downstream products [16]. - **Polysilicon**: The report provides the price, production, inventory, and cost data of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [18]. 3.4 Downstream Product Analysis - **Silicone**: The report analyzes the production, cost, price, and inventory of silicone, including DMC, 107 glue, silicone oil, and raw rubber. It also shows the import and export data of DMC [40][42][45]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The report examines the price, supply, inventory, and production of aluminum alloy, including waste aluminum recycling, aluminum scrap imports, and the production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots. It also analyzes the demand for aluminum alloy in the automotive and wheel hub industries [48][51][52]. - **Polysilicon**: The report studies the production, cost, price, and inventory of polysilicon, as well as the production, inventory, and price of its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. It also analyzes the cost, profit, and supply-demand balance of polysilicon components [58][61][75]. 3.5 Cost and Supply-Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The report analyzes the cost of industrial silicon production in different regions, including Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang. It also presents the weekly and monthly supply-demand balance data of industrial silicon [32][34][37]. - **Polysilicon**: The report shows the cost trend of the polysilicon industry and the monthly supply-demand balance data of polysilicon [58][61]. 3.6 Power Generation and Grid Connection - The report analyzes the new power generation capacity, power generation structure, and new grid-connected capacity of photovoltaic power stations, including solar, wind, nuclear, thermal, and hydropower. It also shows the monthly power generation data of solar energy [77].

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-04-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7315 392299 | 49 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 318176 7118 | 13493 0 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | | 手) -4127 3月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 274938 | 6435 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -339 | -4207 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 392638 | 80 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) | 0 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7874 | -14 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) 市场价:苯乙烯:东北地区:主流价(日,元/吨 | 9 ...

业 务 咨 询 瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.04.18 」 纯碱玻璃市场周报 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾：本周纯碱期货收跌3.36%，本周纯碱期货由于下游玻璃价格走弱，利润影响，纯碱产量供应 充沛，库存小幅去库，纯碱期货价格一路下行，纯碱基差走弱，玻璃期货本周主力合约下跌7.12%，整 体波动幅度较大，主要原因下游需求软弱，内需刺激政策又未出现见效，最终，玻璃期货一路下跌。纯 碱-玻璃基差走弱，上游利润向下游转移正在进行。从持仓数量来看，玻璃净空头依旧持续，情绪依旧较 为悲观。纯碱和玻璃期货情形类似，但整体悲观情绪小于玻璃。 u 行情展望：当前纯碱行业开工率维持在较高水平，即便部分企业有检修计划，但整体供应减量幅度有限。 加之新增产能逐步释放，预计下周市场供应将持续宽松。下游浮法玻璃行业需求相对平稳，高库存将持 续压制价格。从期货市场来看，主力合约价格近日持续走低，反映市场看空情绪浓厚。玻璃方面，浮法 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of April 18, 2025, the V2509 contract of PVC closed at 5,032 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous week's close. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, the V2509 contract oscillated within a range. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, with support around 4,950 yuan/ton [9]. - In April - May, the PVC industry has intensive maintenance. Next week, the restart of a 800,000 - tonne device of Bohua may drive the capacity utilization rate to rise month - on - month. Downstream PVC floor enterprises are on hold due to tariff impacts, and the demand for pipes and profiles is dragged down by the weak real - estate market. Regarding costs, the decline of calcium carbide prices is expected to slow down, and ethylene prices are expected to be weakly sorted [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Price**: The PVC main contract shifted to the 09 contract. As of April 18, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 5,032 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous week [9]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: This week, some devices restarted and some underwent maintenance. The overall capacity utilization rate increased by 0.68% month - on - month to 77.35%. Among them, the calcium carbide method capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13% month - on - month to 79.35%, and the ethylene method capacity utilization rate increased by 2.11% month - on - month to 72.09% [9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the PVC pipe production rate increased by 0.31% month - on - month to 50.31%, and the PVC profile production rate decreased by 0.85% month - on - month to 40.00%. As of April 17, PVC social inventory decreased by 3.74% month - on - month to 725,000 tonnes, maintaining a downward trend [9]. - **Cost**: This week, calcium carbide and ethylene prices fell. The average cost of the national calcium carbide method decreased by 4.05% month - on - month to 5,265 yuan/ton, and the average cost of the national ethylene method decreased by 1.35% month - on - month to 5,631 yuan/ton [9]. - **Outlook**: In April - May, the PVC industry has intensive maintenance. Next week, the restart of a 800,000 - tonne device of Bohua may drive the capacity utilization rate to rise month - on - month. Downstream PVC floor enterprises are on hold due to tariff impacts, and the demand for pipes and profiles is dragged down by the weak real - estate market. Regarding costs, the decline of calcium carbide prices is expected to slow down, and ethylene prices are expected to be weakly sorted. In the short term, the V2509 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, with support around 4,950 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price and Warehouse Receipts**: The V2509 contract oscillated within a range, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased week - on - week [10]. - **Position and Spread**: The main contract shifted, and the position volume increased. The 5 - 9 spread strengthened slightly [13]. - **Spot Market** - **Spot Price - Import and Export**: The CFR China quotation was 700 US dollars (+0); the Southeast Asian quotation was 670 US dollars (+0) [19]. - **Spot Price - Overseas**: The Indian quotation was 700 US dollars (+0) [24]. - **Spot Price - Domestic Calcium Carbide and Ethylene Methods**: This week, the price of calcium carbide method in East China increased week - on - week, and the price of ethylene method decreased week - on - week [27]. - **Basis**: The shift of the main contract led to a weakening of the main basis, and the futures market remained in a contango state [31]. 3.3. Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - **Blue Coke and Calcium Carbide**: This week, the blue coke price remained stable, and the calcium carbide price fell. The blue coke production rate was 51.61%, and the calcium carbide production rate was 60.80% [35][40]. - **EDC and VCM**: The VCM CIF intermediate price was 530 US dollars/ton, and the international EDC price was 206 US dollars/ton [44]. - **Industrial Chain** - **Supply - Capacity and Output**: In 2025, the PVC capacity growth rate is expected to be 10.77%. The output in March was 2.0691 million tonnes, increasing month - on - month [48]. - **Supply - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: This week, the PVC capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month [52]. - **Demand - Downstream Production Rates**: Last week, the pipe production rate increased month - on - month, and the profile production rate decreased month - on - month [55]. - **Demand - PVC Floor Exports**: PVC floor exports decreased month - on - month in February [60]. - **Import and Export**: Exports increased month - on - month in February, and imports decreased month - on - month and remained at a low level [63]. - **Inventory**: PVC social inventory decreased month - on - month [68]. - **Cost**: The comprehensive cost of the calcium carbide method in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Henan decreased, and the cost of the ethylene method in North China decreased [72]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of the PVC calcium carbide method recovered, and the profit of the ethylene method in East China increased week - on - week [77]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was reported at 16.43%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.17%, and that of put options was 14.46% [83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely. As of April 11, 2025, the V2505 contract closed at 4,930 yuan/ton, a 2.74% decrease from last week's close. The implementation of US tariffs on China affected PVC downstream product exports, leading to a significant price drop [9]. - On the supply side, several plants, including Tianjin Bohua, Anhui Huasu, and Ningxia Jinyuyuan, underwent maintenance this week. The capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.35% to 76.67%. Among them, the calcium carbide method capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.18% to 79.22%, and the ethylene method capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.79% to 69.98%. On the demand side, the spring promotion of pipe enterprises ended, and some floor enterprises stopped production and waited due to tariff impacts. The downstream product operating rate dropped significantly and was at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. As of April 10, PVC social inventory decreased by 3.16% to 753,200 tons, maintaining a downward trend. In terms of costs, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene declined this week. The average cost of the national calcium carbide method decreased by 0.27% to 5,487 yuan/ton, and the average cost of the ethylene method decreased by 1.42% to 5,708 yuan/ton [9]. - In April, domestic PVC plants will undergo concentrated maintenance. Next week, Sichuan Jinlu and Xinjiang Zhongtai plants are planned to stop production, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Affected by tariff shocks, downstream enterprises will mainly wait and see, and the product operating rate is expected to remain at a low level. In terms of costs, power restrictions in Inner Mongolia will affect calcium carbide supply, but the concentrated maintenance of calcium carbide downstream will cause the price to decline slightly. The supply of foreign ethylene is sufficient, and domestic demand is weak, so the price has room to decline. In the short term, V2505 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support around 4,800 below and resistance around 5,000 above [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Price**: V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely, closing at 4,930 yuan/ton on April 11, 2025, down 2.74% from last week [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side capacity utilization decreased; demand - side downstream product operating rate dropped; social inventory decreased; costs of calcium carbide and ethylene methods declined [9]. - **Outlook**: Capacity utilization is expected to continue to decline; downstream product operating rate to remain low; calcium carbide and ethylene prices may decline; V2505 to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Futures Price and Warehouse Receipts**: V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely, and the registered warehouse receipt volume increased week - on - week [10]. - **Position and Spread**: The net position of the main contract was short, the reduction of buy orders was less than that of sell orders, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthened slightly [15]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Spot Price - Import and Export**: CFR China quoted at $700 (+0); Southeast Asia quoted at $670 (+0) [22]. - **Spot Price - Overseas**: India quoted at $700 (+0); Northwest Europe quoted at $805 (+20); Houston quoted at $670 (-10) [26][30]. - **Spot Price - Domestic Calcium Carbide and Ethylene Methods**: The prices of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in East China declined this week [33]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened, and the futures market remained in a premium state [38]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Lanthanum Coke and Calcium Carbide**: Lanthanum coke prices remained stable, and calcium carbide prices declined slightly. The operating rates of lanthanum coke and calcium carbide were 52.63% and 62.38% respectively [42][48]. - **EDC and VCM**: The CIF mid - price of VCM was $530/ton, and the international price of EDC was $226/ton [51]. 3.5 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Capacity and Output**: PVC capacity continued to increase in 2024, and the output in March was 206,910 tons, up month - on - month [55]. - **Supply - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [59]. - **Demand - Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of pipe enterprises increased week - on - week last week, and that of profile enterprises decreased week - on - week [62]. - **Demand - PVC Floor Export**: PVC floor exports decreased month - on - month in February [68]. - **Import and Export**: Exports increased month - on - month in February, and imports decreased month - on - month and remained at a low level [71]. - **Inventory**: PVC social inventory decreased week - on - week [76]. - **Cost**: The comprehensive costs of calcium carbide methods in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Henan increased, and the ethylene method cost in North China decreased [80]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of the PVC calcium carbide method decreased, and the profit of the East China ethylene method increased week - on - week [84]. 3.6 Options Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.08%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 29.91% [89].

Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week while demand continued to be sluggish, with high inventories in various segments. The cost support has risen, and the 2505 contract is expected to oscillate between 9720 - 9865. The overall situation is affected by capacity mismatch, leading to a supply - demand imbalance that is difficult to change in the short term [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply is increasing, and although the demand for some downstream products has short - term fluctuations, the overall demand shows a declining trend. The 2506 contract is expected to oscillate between 43320 - 43800 [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Industrial Silicon** - Supply: Last week's supply was 80,000 tons, a 1.27% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 68,000 tons, a 15.00% decrease from the previous week, remaining in a low - demand state [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 604,000 tons, a 2.20% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 266,550 tons, a 2.27% decrease; major port inventory was 139,000 tons, a 2.96% increase [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 2,749 yuan/ton, and the cost support in the dry season increased [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule has decreased, approaching the historical average. Demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. The 2505 contract is expected to oscillate between 9720 - 9865 [6]. - **Polysilicon** - Supply: Last week's production was 21,400 tons, a 0.94% increase from the previous week. The predicted production in March was 94,600 tons, a 4.99% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 10.05GW, a 9.29% decrease from the previous week, with a 1.01% decrease in inventory. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components shows different trends, with battery cells in a loss state and components in a profitable state [9]. - Expectation: Supply production continues to increase, and demand shows a long - term decline. The 2506 contract is expected to oscillate between 43320 - 43800 [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon** - Futures Contracts: Different contracts showed slight price changes, such as the 01 contract at 10,520 yuan, a 0.14% decrease from the previous day [16]. - Spot Prices: The price of East China non - oxygen 553 silicon remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton [16]. - Inventory: Various inventory data, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory, showed different trends of increase or decrease [16]. - Production: The weekly production of sample enterprises was 40,505 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week [16]. - **Polysilicon** - Futures Contracts: Different contracts showed price fluctuations, such as the 06 contract at 43,560 yuan, a 0.23% increase from the previous day [18]. - Spot Prices: The price of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged at 42 yuan/kg [18]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory was 247,000 tons, a 2.37% decrease from the previous week [18]. - Production: The weekly silicon wafer production was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week [18].