Coking Coal - Supply remains tight despite gradual recovery from previous production cuts, with new reductions and suspensions impacting availability [2] - Current spot price is 1315, with a basis of 248, indicating a bullish sentiment [2] - Steel mill inventory stands at 8.01 million tons, port inventory at 2.95 million tons, and independent coking enterprises at 8.61 million tons, totaling 19.57 million tons, down 210,000 tons from last week [2] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [2] - Main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [2] - Anticipated weak demand in the traditional off-season, with steel prices declining and mills facing losses, leading to cautious procurement of raw coal [2] Coking Coke - Production enthusiasm among coking enterprises is high due to easing environmental controls and declining raw material coal prices, leading to expanded profits [3] - Current spot price is 1600, with a basis of 25.5, indicating a bullish sentiment [3] - Steel mill inventory is 6.26 million tons, port inventory at 1.87 million tons, and independent coking enterprises at 450,000 tons, totaling 8.58 million tons, down 10,000 tons from last week [3] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [3] - Main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [3] - Anticipated weak demand due to reduced procurement willingness from steel mills amid a traditional consumption off-season [3] Iron Ore - Steel production is decreasing, leading to a loose supply-demand balance and increasing port inventories [4] - Current spot price for PB powder is 837, with a basis of 43, indicating a bullish sentiment [4] - Port inventory stands at 159.01 million tons, showing an increase compared to previous periods [4] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [4] - Main positions are net long, with a decrease in long positions [4] Hot Rolled Coil - Both supply and demand are weakening, with continued inventory reduction and export challenges [5] - Current spot price is 3290, with a basis of -12, indicating a neutral sentiment [5] - National inventory across 33 major cities is 3.2288 million tons, down from previous weeks [5] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [5] - Main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions [5] Stainless Steel - Slight decline in spot prices, with stable costs and rising inventory levels [6] - Average price is 13275, with a basis of 920, indicating a bullish sentiment [6] - Futures warehouse receipts show a decrease of 354, indicating a neutral sentiment [6] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6] Rebar - Demand remains weak, with low inventory levels recovering and trade purchasing intentions still weak [6] - Current spot price is 3250, with a basis of 140, indicating a bullish sentiment [6] - National inventory across 35 major cities is 3.8475 million tons, down from previous weeks [6] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [6] - Main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions [6] Glass - Production profits are weak, with supply contraction not meeting expectations and high historical inventory levels [7] - Current spot price for float glass is 1004 yuan/ton, with a basis of -49, indicating a bearish sentiment [7] - National inventory stands at 6.2362 million weight boxes, slightly reduced from previous weeks [7] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7] PVC - Supply pressure is increasing with production rates rising, while demand remains low [8] - Current price is 4540, with a basis of -9, indicating a neutral sentiment [9] - Factory inventory is 322,640 tons, up 2.28% from previous weeks [9] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [10] - Main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions [11] Asphalt - Supply is increasing with production rates rising, while demand remains below historical averages [12] - Current price is 2990, with a basis of -13, indicating a neutral sentiment [13] - Social inventory is 774,000 tons, down 2.51% from previous weeks [13] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [14] Nickel - Recent price rebound with cautious purchasing from traders, while supply remains tight [44] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [44] - Main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions [44] Zinc - Global refined zinc production is short of demand, indicating a bullish sentiment [45] - Current price is 22460, with a basis of +35, indicating a neutral sentiment [46] - LME zinc inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased [46] - Price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [47] Copper - Supply disruptions and marginal improvements in manufacturing PMI indicate a neutral sentiment [50] - Current price is 87360, with a basis of -70, indicating a neutral sentiment [51] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [52] Gold - Recent price increase driven by silver price surge and positive market sentiment [58] - Current price is 953.92, with a basis of -5.88, indicating a bearish sentiment [58] - Inventory levels increased, indicating a bearish trend [58] Silver - Significant price increase driven by supply shortages and positive market sentiment [59] - Current price is 12727, with a basis of -56, indicating a neutral sentiment [59] - Price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Oscillating and bullish [5][16] - Red dates: Neutral [7][21] 2. Core Views of the Report - The apple market in 2025 showed an oscillating upward trend, influenced by low old - season inventory in the first half and new - season production reduction and quality issues in the second half. The inventory structure may be a hidden danger, and in the short - to - medium term, prices are expected to remain stable and slightly strong due to the approaching holiday season and tight supply of high - quality apples [1][11][16]. - The red date market in 2025 was affected by "production reduction expectation game + high - inventory suppression", with prices showing a pattern of low - level consolidation followed by a rise and then a fall. Currently in the "new - old season alternation" period, the market has high production reduction expectations but the extent is uncertain. The future focus is on consumption during the peak season, and the near - term contracts may still have some downward space [17][18][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Apple Market Analysis 1.1 Market Review - In 2025, apple futures showed an oscillating upward trend. In the first half, due to low old - season inventory, the origin had an active trading atmosphere and faster de - stocking. In the second half, trading revolved around new - season production reduction expectations and quality issues. Different months had different price and trading trends, such as price increases in some months due to festivals and slowdowns during the off - season [1][11][12]. 1.2 Apple Supply and Demand - In the 2025 - 2026 production season, the output of late - Fuji apples decreased by 219.3 tons, a reduction of 6.01%. Different regions had different inventory changes, with some regions having reduced inventory and others having a slight increase. Quality problems affected the acquisition and inventory structure, with more low - quality and less high - quality apples in storage. In the sales area, the arrival volume and sales of apples showed seasonal characteristics, with slow sales in the off - season [13][14][15]. 1.3 Future Outlook - The long - term rainy weather before the late - Fuji apples were harvested affected their color, quality, and commodity rate, delaying the storage time and keeping the acquisition price high. The current inventory structure is characterized by more farmer - owned goods, less merchant - owned goods, more low - quality fruits, and less high - quality fruits. The early - stage storage speed is fast, but the later - stage is expected to slow down. In the short - to - medium term, prices are expected to remain stable and slightly strong due to the approaching holiday season and tight supply of high - quality apples [16]. Red Date Market Analysis 2.1 Market Review - In 2025, the red date futures market was affected by "production reduction expectation game + high - inventory suppression", with prices showing a pattern of low - level consolidation followed by a rise and then a fall. In the first half, it was in a weak pattern, with a short - term increase during the Spring Festival and then a decline. In the second half, due to production reduction expectations, prices rebounded and then fell again due to inventory pressure [17][18]. 2.2 Red Date Supply and Demand - In the production area, the new - season red dates in Xinjiang are almost off the tree, with the acquisition progress at about 40% - 50%. The production is expected to decrease, but the extent is uncertain, and the quality is better than last year. In the sales area, the arrival volume in the Hebei market is increasing, with more old - season goods in trading and low acceptance of new - season goods. The inventory of 36 sample points is increasing [19][20]. 2.3 Future Outlook - Currently in the "new - old season alternation" period, the new - season production reduction expectation is strong but the extent is uncertain, and the quality is better than last year. The inventory pressure is high, and the market is pessimistic. The future focus is on the consumption during the peak season. If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - priced new - season red dates, the futures price may rise; otherwise, the new - season spot price may fall. The near - term contracts may still have some downward space [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple Strategy: Neutral to Bullish [4] - Red Date Strategy: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The current apple market has a slow consumption rhythm and weak demand. The market is affected by factors such as high prices and the impact of citrus fruits. However, the current expectations of storage volume and structure have been reflected in the price. The future market needs to focus on terminal consumption recovery, the impact of storage structure differentiation, and the dynamics of merchants' inventory transfers before the Spring Festival [3][4]. - Red Dates: The red date market is currently in a critical period of transition between the off - season and peak season and the alternation of old and new seasons. There is a large inventory pressure due to the superposition of old and new seasons, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The market's future expectations are relatively pessimistic. The actual consumption situation on the consumer side will be the focus of market attention [8]. Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9,531 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.42% [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 - 2031 changed by - 40 from the previous day. The price of semi - commercial late Fuji above 70 in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 - 1231 changed by - 40 from the previous day [1]. Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 9,160 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of - 0.16% [5]. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 260 changed by +15 from the previous day [5]. Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - The in - warehouse trading of late Fuji is dull, and the overall shipment is average. The出库 speed in the western production areas has slightly slowed down, and the Shandong production area has sporadic shipments, mainly through foreign trade channels. After a round of replenishment, the market atmosphere in the production areas has become dull due to slow sales. The price of high - quality goods remains stable, and the short - term market is expected to remain stable under the support of foreign trade channels [2]. Red Dates - The acquisition progress of grey jujubes in the Xinjiang production area is about 50%, and the transfer volume of goods rights is about 30% of the total output. The price in the production area is weakly stable. The acquisition progress in Aksu and Alar is relatively fast, while the transfer progress in Kashgar is slow. The new goods in the Hebei and Guangdong markets are gradually on the market, and the downstream merchants purchase on demand. The short - term spot price is expected to remain weakly stable [6][7]. Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price showed an upward trend yesterday. The in - warehouse trading in each production area is dull, and the shipment speed has slowed down. The market is affected by the impact of citrus and other competing products, and the short - term market is expected to remain stable under the support of foreign trade channels. The storage volume is more than 10% lower than the same period last year, and the proportion of high - quality goods in the storage structure has decreased [3]. Red Dates - The red date futures price fell slightly yesterday. The acquisition progress in the Xinjiang production area varies. The new goods in the sales areas are gradually on the market, and the downstream merchants purchase on demand. The short - term spot price is expected to remain weakly stable. The market is currently in a critical period of transition, with large inventory pressure and unsolved supply - demand contradictions [8]. Group 6: Strategies Apple - Be neutral to bullish. Pay attention to terminal consumption recovery, the impact of storage structure differentiation, and the dynamics of merchants' inventory transfers before the Spring Festival. Be cautious when chasing high prices [4]. Red Dates - Be neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - priced new - season spot in the production area, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price. Otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to fall. The near - month contract may still have a certain downward space [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | 1万吨 . | ， | 环比持平 。 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | ， | 环比减少4 | 76% . | 需求持续低迷 . | | 多 . | | | | | | | | | 晶硅库存为27 1万吨 . | 处于低位 ， | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 供应支撑趋缓，焦煤偏弱运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 成本端支撑不足，焦炭低位震荡 | 期货研究报告 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: November 26, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - As of the close on November 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling. Different futures varieties are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations, and their price trends vary [6]. Summary by Variety Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Peanuts rose nearly 4%, polysilicon rose nearly 3%, glass and Shanghai silver rose nearly 2%, and lithium carbonate, urea, and live pigs rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe fell nearly 8%, and polypropylene (PP), coke, coking coal, plastic, and fuel oil fell more than 1%. The main contract of CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 0.41%, the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.14%, the main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) remained flat, and the main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) fell 0.09%. The main contract of 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.05%, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.21%, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.36%, and the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.86%. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 26, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2602 had an inflow of 2.313 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 1.266 billion yuan, and lithium carbonate 2605 had an inflow of 919 million yuan; in terms of outflows, CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 2.86 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 had an outflow of 2.76 billion yuan, and CSI 300 2512 had an outflow of 1.355 billion yuan [6][7]. Copper - Today, copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong and volatile trend. The US economic data had little impact on copper prices. The copper concentrate inventory has been accumulating for a week, and the Indonesian Grasberg mine is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is still ongoing, and the refining fees remain stable. Although the import of refined copper has decreased, the domestic supply is relatively abundant. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has also been accumulating. The implementation of Policy 770 is yet to be determined, and the production of recycled copper rods in some regions has decreased. After the decline in copper prices last week, downstream procurement increased. Overall, after the Sino - US leaders' dialogue, the international risk expectation has eased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, which is beneficial to copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will be strong before the interest rate cut meeting [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, rising during the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 92,800 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 90,400 yuan/ton, both rising by 750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. As of October 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 26, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher than the same period last year. The price of spodumene has risen, and the supply of lithium from salt lakes is affected by seasonality. The demand for energy storage is expected to be strong, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly. The inventory of lithium carbonate has been continuously decreasing. The market is affected by industry news and sentiment [11]. Crude Oil - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. The production increase will be suspended in the first quarter of next year. The end of the peak demand season, the unexpected increase in refined oil inventories, and the high - level US crude oil production have put pressure on the market. Geopolitical factors such as the conflict between the US and Venezuela, the armed conflict in Libya, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine also affect the market. The market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly [12][14]. Asphalt - The operating rate of asphalt last week decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The operating rates of downstream industries varied. The shipment volume increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of demand due to the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in asphalt futures prices [15]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn wire, remained flat, and orders decreased slightly. On November 26, some overhauled devices restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to about 83%. The destocking of petrochemicals slowed down in November, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The decline in crude oil prices and the increase in supply due to new capacity and reduced overhauls, combined with the end of the peak season for downstream demand, are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in PP prices [16][17]. Plastic - On November 26, the operating rate of plastic remained at about 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The new capacity of some enterprises has been put into production, and the operating rate has slightly decreased. The destocking of petrochemicals has slowed down, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream demand are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in plastic prices [18]. PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is stable. The operating rate of PVC increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate continued to decline slightly. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties have increased export orders, but the quotes of Formosa Plastics in December have decreased. The social inventory has increased slightly and is still at a high level. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The new capacity has been put into production, and it is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate weakly [19][20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, falling during the day. The spot price in the Shanxi market decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal decreased by 2 yuan/ton. In October, China's coal imports decreased year - on - year. The utilization rate of coking coal mines increased slightly. The inventory of mines has increased significantly, while the inventory of coking enterprises has decreased. The steel mill's operating rate and hot metal production have increased, but the profit has weakened. The coking coal price has recovered the previous increase, and there may be opportunities for the market to be boosted by winter storage meetings and major domestic meetings [21]. Urea - The futures price of urea opened low and moved high, showing a strong trend during the day. The spot price is still weak, but the low - price transactions in the market are good. The daily production is much higher than the same period in previous years, and it is expected to remain above 190,000 tons before the seasonal shutdown of gas - fired devices. The upward trend of coal costs has slowed down. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has recovered, and the inventory of urea has decreased for several weeks. The market demand has improved, but the upward space is limited due to sufficient supply [23].

2025年11月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：短期不追高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边震荡市，不追高 | 2 | | MEG：供需格局改善，空单减持，多MEG空PX | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：估值区间内弱势运行 | 7 | | 沥青：窄幅震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 | 11 | | PP：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 | 12 | | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：估值低位反弹 | 17 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 | 23 | | 丙烯：上涨驱动转弱，成本支撑偏强 | 23 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：震荡走势延续，短期或强于低硫 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：转入调整，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 27 | | 短纤：短期震荡市 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (Red stars represent a predicted trend of rising) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White stars represent a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The olefin - polyolefin market shows mixed trends. Propylene is stable with a slight increase, while plastic and polypropylene are falling due to supply - demand imbalances [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market has a downward trend in pure benzene and a stable - supported trend in styrene [3]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, PTA follows cost - driven logic, ethylene glycol may rebound in the short - term but has limited medium - term space, short - fiber follows raw material prices, and bottle chip is cost - driven with over - capacity pressure [5]. - The coal - chemical market has different trends for methanol and urea. Methanol may have a long - spread opportunity, while urea is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation [6]. - The chlor - alkali market shows that PVC may stop falling and stabilize, and caustic soda is in a weak operation [7]. - The soda ash - glass market shows that soda ash is in a supply - surplus situation, and glass may have limited downward space [8]. Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures fluctuate above the 5 - day average line. Market lacks news, with stable enterprise quotes and a slight increase in real - deal prices [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures decline. Plastic has increased supply pressure due to reduced maintenance and more arrivals, and weak demand. Polypropylene's supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is limited [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Unified benzene prices continue to fall. There are concerns about Asian pure benzene exports, but the sustainability is questionable. Downstream demand is weak [3]. - Styrene futures fluctuate narrowly. Supply may decrease slightly, demand is good, and inventory is falling, supporting prices [3]. Polyester - PX's short - term supply - demand is weak, but it is expected to be strong in the medium - term. PTA follows cost - driven logic and may see improved processing margins [5]. - Ethylene glycol may rebound in the short - term but has limited medium - term space. Short - fiber follows raw material prices, and bottle chip is cost - driven with over - capacity [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol futures adjust narrowly, and spot prices rise slightly. There may be an opportunity to go long on the 5 - 9 spread, but beware of weak reality [6]. - Urea futures fall, and spot prices in the Northeast rise. The supply - surplus situation is expected to continue [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. There is a possibility of export improvement to India, and inventory is decreasing. It may follow cost changes [7]. - Caustic soda shows an oscillating trend. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is in a weak operation [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash shows a weak trend. It is in a de - stocking situation, with increased production. It is in a supply - surplus situation in the long - term [8]. - Glass shows an oscillating trend. There may be limited downward space due to cost support and potential cold - repair [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The main logic of the industrial silicon market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main factors affecting the market include cost increase support, manufacturers' shutdown and production reduction plans, slow post - holiday demand recovery, and strong supply and weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The main risk points are the impact of shutdown, production reduction/maintenance plans, polysilicon inventory destocking, and resumption trends [11][12][13]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 91,000 tons, with no change compared to the previous week. The demand was 80,000 tons, at a low level, with a 4.76% week - on - week decrease. The inventory of crystalline silicon was 271,000 tons, the inventory of silicone was 56,300 tons, and the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 75,200 tons. The comprehensive operating rate of silicone was 72.18%, with no change compared to the previous week, and lower than the historical average. The cost support in Xinjiang has increased, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Basis**: On November 24, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 410 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a bullish trend [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 548,000 tons, a 0.37% week - on - week increase; the sample enterprise inventory was 177,800 tons, a 3.01% week - on - week increase; the main port inventory was 129,000 tons, a 1.57% week - on - week increase, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule has decreased, close to the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,835 - 9,045 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 27,100 tons, a 1.11% week - on - week increase. The forecasted production schedule for November was 120,100 tons, a 10.37% month - on - month decrease. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has decreased to varying degrees, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. The cost support has stabilized, showing a bearish trend [8]. - **Basis**: On November 24, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1,065 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish trend [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 271,000 tons, a 1.49% week - on - week increase, at a low level compared to the same period in history, showing a neutral trend [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and the short position turned to long, showing a bullish trend [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule will decrease in the short term and is expected to recover in the medium term. The overall demand shows a continuous decline, and the cost support has stabilized. The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52,465 - 54,165 yuan/ton [8][9]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The report provides the price, basis, inventory, production, and cost - profit data of industrial silicon contracts, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of downstream products such as silicone and aluminum alloy [15][16]. - **Polysilicon**: The report provides the price, production, inventory, and cost - profit data of polysilicon contracts, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [17]. Other Data and Charts - The report also includes the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, the disk price trends of polysilicon, the inventory, production, and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon, the cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon, and the data and trends of downstream products of industrial silicon such as silicone, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [19][22][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week, with some regions possibly experiencing price drops. The inland market may turn weak due to high开工 and low demand, while the port market will continue to bottom - out until the shutdown of Iranian plants is confirmed and port inventory is significantly reduced. The MA2601 contract is expected to trade between 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals show that while inland production areas have no inventory pressure, high port inventory suppresses the overall market. The inland market may return to a pattern of high - supply and weak - demand, and the port market will continue to bottom - out. The expected price range for MA2601 this week is 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the market trend is bearish, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; Iranian methanol production has decreased, and port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Previously shut - down plants are restarting, like Inner Mongolia Donghua; there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, prices of various regions and varieties have different changes, with some rising and some remaining stable. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has increased. There are also corresponding changes in basis, import spreads, and price differences between regions [8]. - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. Operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory data**: As of November 20, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 1243,900 tons, a decrease of 35,100 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 42,400 tons to 723,500 tons [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production, including those in the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions, with different maintenance start and end times and production losses [62]. - **Overseas plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, and plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions [63]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants with methanol - to - olefin facilities are under maintenance, and others are operating stably or at different loads. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants are under maintenance, while some plants in Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, and other regions are operating normally or at reduced loads [64].