1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the silicon - manganese market showed a weak and volatile trend. The black - series commodity sector had a narrow - range oscillation, and the alloy market lacked directional drivers. The futures price was waiting for a single - side driving factor. Currently, the fundamental driving force of silicon - manganese itself was limited, and it would continue to resonate with the black - series sector in the short term. The future trend of black - series commodities and macro - sentiment needed continuous attention. It was predicted that the market would continue to oscillate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Manganese Silicon Supply Capacity - A chart shows the monthly production capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises from 2016 - 06 to 2025 - 06 [6][7] Annual Output - A chart presents the annual production of silicon - manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and China from 2008 to 2025 [8][9] Weekly, Monthly Output and开工率 - A chart displays the weekly and monthly production of Chinese silicon - manganese and the weekly开工率 of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [10][11] Regional Output - Charts show the monthly production of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [12][13] Manganese Silicon Demand Steel Tender Purchase Price - A chart shows the monthly purchase prices of silicon - manganese 6517 by Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron & Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 06 [15][16] Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit - A chart shows the weekly daily average hot metal production and profit rate of 247 Chinese steel enterprises from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [17][18] Manganese Silicon Import and Export - A chart shows the monthly import and export quantities of Chinese ferromanganese - silicon from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 07 [19][20] Manganese Silicon Inventory - A chart shows the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China, and the monthly average available inventory days in China, the northern region, and the eastern region from 2019 - 09 - 30 to 2025 - 03 - 31 [21][22] Manganese Silicon Cost - Manganese Ore Import Volume - A chart shows the monthly import volume of manganese ore by trade method, from Gabon to China, from southern Africa to China, and from Australia to China from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 04 [23][24] Port Inventory and Available Days - A chart shows the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available inventory days in China from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [25][26] High - Grade Ore Port Inventory - A chart shows the weekly port inventory of Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [27][28] Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price - A chart shows the daily price of South African semi - carbonate manganese lump (Mn36.5%), Australian manganese ore (Mn45%), and Gabonese manganese lump (Mn44.5%) in Tianjin Port from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [29] Regional Cost - A chart shows the daily cost of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi [30][31] Manganese Silicon Profit - Regional - A chart shows the daily profit of silicon - manganese in the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 04 - 01 [32][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The spot price of EG in the East China market decreased by -1.43% to 4214 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main EG contract decreased by -1.16% to 4158 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -63 US dollars/ton, with no week-on-week change; the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -305 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main EG ports in East China was 50.7 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9.8 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.3 tons. From September 29th to October 8th, the total actual arrivals at the main ports were 15.4 tons, and the port inventory increased significantly. From October 9th to 12th, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China were 8 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.6 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. During the National Day holiday, there were many arrivals of foreign ships, and large ships from Canada and Saudi Arabia will arrive at the port to replenish supplies. On the demand side, the demand was slightly boosted by pre-holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The overall balance sheet of EG has a large pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and the inventory may bottom out and rebound [2]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, cautiously short and hedge at high prices. For inter - period trading, conduct an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605. There is no recommendation for cross - variety trading [3]. Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4214 yuan/ton (a change of -61 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of -1.43%), and the closing price of the main EG contract was 4158 yuan/ton (a change of -49 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of -1.16%). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -63 US dollars/ton (a week-on-week increase of 0 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -305 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 20 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on international price differences were provided in the text, only a figure (Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR) was mentioned [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Before the festival, the demand was slightly boosted by stocking, and the sales of filament improved significantly, but the increase in polyester load was limited. The sustainability of the demand recovery needs attention [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main EG ports in East China was 50.7 tons (a week-on-week increase of 9.8 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons (a week-on-week increase of 4.3 tons). From September 29th to October 8th, the total actual arrivals at the main ports were 15.4 tons, and the port inventory increased significantly. From October 9th to 12th, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China were 8 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.6 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Outlook**: The supply pressure of asphalt is currently high, while the demand recovery is weak. The market is expected to experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3354 - 3396 [8]. - **Supply - side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% but a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 42.0062%, up 5.632 percentage points month - on - month. Sample enterprise production increased by 15.49% month - on - month, but the estimated device maintenance volume decreased by 14.02% month - on - month. Refineries increased production recently, raising supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand - side**: The current demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes is either flat or down compared to the previous period and lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 596.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 779.8729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.36%. The loss of asphalt processing decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Market Factors**: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support. Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced sources, overall downward demand, and stronger expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Supply**: Supply pressure remains high, with refineries increasing production recently but a possible decrease in supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand**: Demand recovery is weak, with current demand lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: Short - term cost support is expected to weaken due to the weakening of crude oil [8]. - **Other Aspects**: The basis shows a bullish sign with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. Inventories are showing a neutral trend with continuous destocking in social, factory, and port inventories. The futures price of the 11 - contract is below the MA20, showing a bearish sign. The net long position of the main contract has changed from short to long, showing a bullish sign [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: Various indicators such as futures contracts, inventories, and production showed different trends of increase or decrease. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.52% compared to the previous value [15]. - **Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend**: Provided the historical trend charts of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [17]. - **Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis**: Included the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [20][23][26][30]. - **Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: Showed the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [33]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis**: Included the profit trends of asphalt and the profit - spread trends between coking and asphalt [35][38]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - side**: Covered aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production (weekly and monthly), Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, capacity utilization rate, and estimated maintenance loss volume [42][44][47]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Inventory**: Included exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and the inventory - to - stock ratio in factories [62][66][69]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Import and Export Situation**: Showed the export and import trends of asphalt and the import - price spread trend of South Korean asphalt [72][75]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Demand - side**: Included petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment), downstream machinery demand, asphalt 开工率 (by different types), and downstream 开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane) [78][81][84]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presented the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [104].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The price of cotton has bottom - support as the commercial inventory is decreasing and the peak season for cotton textile is coming. The strategy suggestion is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5,800.0 yuan, in Kunming is 5,820.0 yuan, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 14,850.0 yuan [1] Disk Surface - The closing price of US sugar is 16.25, with a change of - 0.43%. The closing price of US cotton is 64.46, with a change of - 0.74% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanded price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin cotton areas was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at a high risk of heat damage. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is coming, so the cotton price has bottom - support [1] Inventory Warrants - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warrants is 8,898.0, with a change of - 0.78%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warrants is 3,030.0, with a change of - 1.66% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: The growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is generally good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected, which delays the sugar factory's startup time. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is lowered. The overall growth of cotton is better than last year, and the demand for cotton is expected to recover during the traditional peak season, so the price has the impetus to rise [3] Data Quick View - **Outer - Market Quotes**: The price of US sugar decreased from 16.32 to 16.25, a change of - 0.43%. The price of US cotton decreased from 64.94 to 64.46, a change of - 0.74% [4] - **Spot Prices**: The price of sugar in Nanning increased from 5,780.0 to 5,800.0, a change of 0.35%. The price of sugar in Kunming increased from 5,810.0 to 5,820.0, a change of 0.17%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a change of - 0.14%. The price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 14,950.0 to 14,850.0, a change of - 0.67% [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: Different sugar and cotton contract price differences and basis have different degrees of change [4] - **Import Prices**: The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 76.05, a change of 0.00% [4] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,456.0, a change of 0.00% [4] - **Options**: Different sugar and cotton option contracts have different implied volatilities and historical volatilities [4] - **Inventory Warrants**: The number of sugar warrants decreased from 8,968.0 to 8,898.0, a change of - 0.78%. The number of cotton warrants decreased from 3,081.0 to 3,030.0, a change of - 1.66% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market trading is average, and the chlor - alkali market shows a weak and fluctuating trend. PVC supply is abundant, downstream consumption is limited, and the export side shows some resilience. The 32% alkali spot price of caustic soda has been continuously reduced, the 50% alkali orders have improved, and the inventory situation is complex, with attention needed on downstream procurement and production capacity expansion [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,896 yuan/ton (-1), the East China basis is -176 yuan/ton (+1), and the South China basis is -86 yuan/ton (+1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,720 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,810 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 48 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is -784 yuan/ton (-127), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is -645 yuan/ton (+7), and the PVC export profit is 7.1 dollars/ton (+1.4) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.8 million tons (+1.2), the social inventory is 53.5 million tons (+0.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.11% (+0.68%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 75.9 million tons (+0.4) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,515 yuan/ton (-13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -15 yuan/ton (+13) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 725.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 159.78 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 39.12 million tons (+1.29), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.08 million tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.50% (+0.60%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.95% (-0.28%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.82% (+0.30%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. The supply is abundant with planned maintenance in some areas and new production capacity ramping up. Although enterprises are actively pre - selling, downstream operation rates are generally slightly down, and consumption is limited. The export side shows some resilience, but the PVC wallpaper anti - dumping investigation in India may have an impact on exports [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of 32% caustic soda has been continuously reduced, the 50% caustic soda orders have improved, and the price has stabilized. Supply may increase slightly, and demand from the alumina industry is stable but with high - price sales difficulties. There are differences in inventory changes, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement, production capacity expansion, and cost support [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Hold [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for V01 - V05 when the spread is high [4]. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Hold [5]. - Inter - delivery spread: Buy the near - term contract and sell the far - term contract for SH01 - SH05 when the spread is low, paying attention to downstream procurement rhythm and alumina capacity expansion progress [5]. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The fundamentals of the coke market remain healthy, with prices expected to fluctuate before the holiday [1]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - After the peak season, there is still room for the manganese - silicon price center to decline [4]. - Steel prices may run weakly and stably before the holiday with limited decline [4]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on pullbacks [5]. - The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - The short - term trend of pig prices is expected to be weakly adjusted, with a possibility of a small rebound [6]. - Domestic soybean prices are expected to run weakly in the short - term [7]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and long - making opportunities should be focused on in the fourth quarter [7]. - It is advisable to short at high positions for crude oil due to supply surplus pressure [8]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, in a situation of low inventory and weak demand [9]. - It is advisable to short at high positions for PX as PXN is under pressure [9]. - Silver is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions to control risks [10]. - Gold is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions to control risks before the holiday [10]. - The medium - and long - term treasury bond market operation is difficult, and the stock - bond seesaw should be concerned [11]. Summary by Short - Comments Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke is - 34 yuan/ton. Supply has declined, and demand has a good rigid support. Mainstream coke enterprises have proposed a price increase, and prices are expected to fluctuate before the holiday [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2253 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. Domestic methanol starts at a high level, and downstream demand recovers. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at 2365 [2]. Manganese - Silicon - The national capacity utilization rate is 44.18%, a decrease of 1.50%. Costs are slightly strengthened, and the loss degree deepens. After the peak season, there is room for the price center to decline [4]. Rebar - The price of billets in Tangshan is stable at 2970 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises have weak pre - holiday stocking willingness. Steel prices may run weakly and stably before the holiday [4]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1282 yuan/ton. Production is at a high level, and inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with the lower support at 1260 [5]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 7242 yuan/ton. Production enterprise inventory is decreasing, and downstream start - up rates are expected to rise. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate, with the upper pressure at 7200 [6]. Pig - The average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 19.32 yuan/kg, up 0.8%. Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to adjust weakly in the short - term with a possible small rebound [6]. Soybean - National port soybean inventory is 938.5 million tons, increasing. Domestic new soybeans are on the market, and prices are expected to run weakly in the short - term [7]. Palm Oil - National key - area commercial inventory is 55.22 million tons, decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and long - making opportunities should be focused on in the fourth quarter [7]. Crude Oil - Iraq has resumed oil exports, and OPEC+ may increase production quotas in November. It is advisable to short at high positions due to supply surplus [8]. Rubber - Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9]. PX - The average domestic and Asian PX start - up rates are rising. PXN is under pressure, and it is advisable to short at high positions [9]. Silver - There are differences within the Fed. Silver is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions [10]. Gold - Sino - US trade issues and Fed policies boost gold. It is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [10]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - New policy - based financial tools are introduced, which are bullish for the stock market and bearish for the bond market in the medium and long - term. Concern should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 25, the manganese silicon futures main contract closed higher. The fundamentals show characteristics of "high supply and weak demand." Steel mills' pre - holiday stockpiling supports short - term demand, but terminal building material demand is weak, inventory pressure remains, and with the resumption of production in Guizhou, the risk of medium - to - long - term supply surplus intensifies. Technically, the price is oscillating in the range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton, with balanced long - and short - term forces. In the short term, it lacks an independent driver and is likely to follow the fluctuations of the black sector. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings in October and the demand callback risk after steel mills finish restocking [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 25, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The daily session opened at 5,916 yuan/ton, with a high of 5,954 yuan/ton, a low of 5,856 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5,938 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 219,803 lots, and the open interest was 332,429 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 futures contracts showed a normal market pattern of lower near - term and higher far - term prices. The open interest of the variety was 510,416 lots, a decrease of 18,713 lots from the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 decreased by 1,344 lots [2]. - **Related Market**: On September 25, the manganese silicon options market fluctuated greatly. The open interest of call options for the main contract was 27,339 contracts, and that of put options was 23,120 contracts, with an open interest PCR of 0.846 [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: On September 25, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was - 88 yuan/ton, which widened compared with the previous day, mainly because the increase in the spot price on that day was less than that of the futures price [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 25, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for manganese silicon was 59,475, a decrease of 539 from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: On September 25, the manganese ore market oscillated. In Tianjin Port, semi - carbonate was traded at 34 - 34.5 yuan/ton degree, South African high - iron ore was about 30 yuan/ton degree, and Gabonese ore was about 40 yuan/ton degree. Low - price supplies were hard to find. The price of Australian lump ore was in the range of 39.5 - 41.5 yuan/ton degree, with firm quotes and pending transactions. In Qinzhou Port, the spot price of manganese ore was consolidating. The available inventory of semi - carbonate was low, with a price around 36.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian seeds at 35.5 - 36 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump ore at 39 - 41 yuan/ton degree, and South African high - iron ore at 30.5 yuan/ton degree [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: On September 25, the main contract 2601 of manganese silicon closed with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, indicating short - term support below but also obvious upward resistance. The price has been running in the range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton in the past half - month, currently at the central position, and a strong driver is needed for a breakthrough [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Low - level short - chasing in PP should be cautious, and the medium - term may be a volatile market. Short - term demand has improved month - on - month, but the weak cost side has led to recent market fluctuations. The market before the National Day is generally rational, and low - level position reduction may be considered, so short - chasing needs caution [1][2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6877, with a daily increase of 0.39%. The trading volume was 178,124, and the open interest decreased by 15,873 [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of the 01 contract was - 177 (previous day: - 142), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 43 (previous day: - 49) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: In the North China region, the spot price was 6670 - 6780 yuan/ton; in the East China region, it was 6700 - 6840 yuan/ton; in the South China region, it was 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton [1] Spot News - The domestic PP market showed partial weakness. The rebound of PP futures slightly boosted the trading atmosphere in the spot market. Some production enterprises such as Donghua Energy, Zhongmei, and Baofeng raised their factory prices by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while Yueneng Chemical lowered them by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. Traders mainly sold at stable prices considering the pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure. The intraday basis weakened, and hedgers bought moderately. Downstream buyers replenished at low prices, and most holders reported improved transactions compared with the previous day [2] Market Condition Analysis - Short - term demand has improved month - on - month, but the cost side is still weak, leading to recent market fluctuations. On the supply side, recent maintenance has gradually increased, and low - profit factors have led to low price elasticity at low levels. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream processing has slightly improved, but procurement is in a "buy on rising, not on falling" state [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2, 2] interval. - 2 means most bearish, and 2 means most bullish [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is stagnant. The main influencing factors include the cost changes of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, supply and demand dynamics, and inventory levels. The PVC2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 4860 - 4922. [8][12] - Bullish factors: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. [11] - Bearish factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a 3.43% month - on - month increase. This week, the supply pressure decreased. The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.26%, a 0.76 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, but still below the historical average. The current demand may remain sluggish. [6][9] - **Basis**: On September 23, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 101 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [9] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a 1.20% month - on - month decrease. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a 0.56% month - on - month increase. [9] - **Market**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The main positions were net short, and short positions increased. [9] - **Expectation**: It is expected that the scheduled production will increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. [8] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, start - up rates, profits, and costs of different regions and varieties. For example, the price of East China SG - 5 decreased by 0.83% month - on - month to 4790 yuan/ton. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and the main contract closing price. [17][18] - **Price and Volume**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from August to September 2025. [21] - **Spread Analysis**: It presents the historical spread trends of different contract months of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads in 2024 and 2025. [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, and inventory data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method production process. For example, the profit of the calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with a 30.80% month - on - month increase in losses. [6][35] - **Supply Trend**: The current capacity utilization rate of calcium carbide method enterprises is 76.96%, a 0.04 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The production of calcium carbide method enterprises was 328,605 tons, a 3.14% month - on - month decrease, and that of ethylene method enterprises was 132,310 tons, a 5.16% month - on - month decrease. [6] - **Demand Trend**: It shows the downstream start - up rates of PVC, such as the profile start - up rate of 39.43%, a 0.21 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, and the pipe start - up rate of 39.13%, a 0.52 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. [9] - **Inventory**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days. [60][61] - **Ethylene Method**: It presents data on imports of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price spreads in the ethylene method. [63] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, including imports, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and exports. [66]

Core Viewpoint - The silicon iron futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 2.81% to 5602.00 yuan/ton as of September 22 [1] Market Data - As of September 19, the number of silicon iron futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 18,827, a decrease of 129 from the previous trading day [2] - The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises nationwide was 34.84%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, with an average daily output of 16,150 tons [3] - Current profits for spot silicon iron are -200 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia and -250 yuan/ton in Ningxia. The recent bidding price for Hebei Steel's 75B silicon iron is 5,800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the last round [3] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures notes that supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, with slight inventory reduction, but warehouse receipts have stopped declining and are increasing, keeping absolute values high and suppressing price increases. Short-term price movements are expected to follow coal prices [4] - Southwest Futures indicates that recent ferroalloy production remains high, with weak demand recovery, suggesting a continuation of supply surplus. The current low cost limits downward space, while low inventory of manganese ore strengthens support at low levels. There may be short-term supply reduction expectations, and under low cost conditions, there could be opportunities to consider low-position long trades if the market falls back into a loss zone [4]