◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 现实格局偏弱，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 13 日） 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，供应收缩但降幅不大，而库存水平偏高，利好效应有限。与此同 时，螺纹需求开始走弱，高频指标再度下行，继续位于近年来同期低位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The cost is expected to weaken, and the supply is expected to increase next week. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4547 - 4597 [7][12]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - The basis on November 11 showed that the spot price was higher than the futures price, which was neutral. The inventory situation was mixed, with the factory inventory decreasing and the social inventory increasing, also being neutral. The disk showed a bearish signal as the MA20 was downward and the 01 contract futures price closed below the MA20. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [7][9]. - The main logic was the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The main risk points included the implementation of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, the PVC production was 2128120 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The calcium carbide method enterprise production was 345350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.89%, and the ethylene method enterprise production was 146770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 percentage points, but higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors had different start - up rate changes, with some decreasing and some remaining flat or increasing. The shipping cost was expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price was competitive, but the current demand might remain weak [5]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 769.4 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 0.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 465.05 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 14.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2176.35 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 1.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling might be under pressure [6]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The factory inventory was 334596 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 250396 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%, and the ethylene method factory inventory was 84200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. The social inventory was 545700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The production enterprise inventory days were 5.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.65% [9]. 3.2.5 Position - The main position was net short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish trend [7]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provided detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, price changes, spreads, and inventory data of different types of PVC and related products [14][15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It included the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures [17][20][21]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It covered the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and their impact on PVC production [26][29][31][33]. 3.5.2 PVC Supply - It showed the capacity utilization rate, production profit, and production volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [38][39][40]. 3.5.3 PVC Demand - It analyzed the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream start - up rates of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and infrastructure investment [43][45][47]. 3.5.4 PVC Inventory - It presented the inventory data of the exchange, calcium carbide method factory, ethylene method factory, and social inventory, as well as the production enterprise inventory days [54][55]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - It included the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [56][57]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It showed the monthly import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data of PVC, presenting the supply - demand trends [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: The demand shows no improvement, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The real estate industry is in a downward cycle. With the spot price at 3190 and a basis of 165, the national inventory in 35 major cities is 425.7 million tons, decreasing month - on - month but increasing year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, and the main position is net short with increasing shorts. Considering the weak real estate market, cooling demand, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a volatile and bearish approach is recommended [2]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect. With the spot price at 3280 and a basis of 38, the national inventory in 33 major cities is 333.02 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is flat, and the main position is net short with increasing shorts. Given the increasing inventory, blocked exports, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a volatile and bearish approach is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects 利多 (Positive Factors) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Low production, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [4]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7]. 利空 (Negative Factors) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: The downstream real estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [4]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [8]. 价格 (Prices) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Spot price, Southeast Asian export price, basis, Tangshan billet price, domestic scrap steel comprehensive price [9][15][21][23][26]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Spot price, Southeast Asian export price, basis [12][18][21]. 开工率 (Operating Rates) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Blast furnace operating rate, short - process electric furnace operating rate [29][32]. 产量 (Output) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Weekly output [35]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Weekly output [38]. 利润 (Profits) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Disk profit, blast furnace estimated profit, construction steel electric furnace estimated profit [41][46][48]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Disk profit, blast furnace estimated profit [44][51]. 库存 (Inventory) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Social inventory, steel mill inventory [53][56]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Social inventory, steel mill inventory [59][62]. 表观消费 (Apparent Consumption) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Apparent consumption, year - on - year change, comparison with the same - period average, inventory - to - consumption ratio [65][66][67][68]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Apparent consumption, year - on - year change, comparison with the same - period average, inventory - to - consumption ratio [70][72][73][74]. 其他 (Others) - Building materials trading volume, real estate development investment and sales area (cumulative year - on - year), housing new construction, construction and completion area (cumulative year - on - year), manufacturing PMI, steel monthly export data, cement price [75][78][80][82][85][87].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-11-12 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900 2023/1/1 2023/4/1 2023/7/1 2023/10/1 2024/1/1 2024/4/1 2024/7/1 2024/10/1 2025/1/1 2025/4/1 2025/7/1 2025/10/1 坐标轴标题 U R期现价格及基差 基差 主力收盘 现货 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率再次出现回升，综合库存小幅回落。需求端，农业需求受天气 影响有所回升，工业需求中性偏弱，复合肥开工同比中性、三聚氰胺 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For coking coal, the supply is tight with limited mine capacity release. Downstream replenishment has been active recently, but the mid - trading sector is cautious due to high prices. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term. Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth, while negative factors are slower procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [3][5]. - For coke, production is limited by high - cost pressure and environmental policies. Terminal demand is weakening, and the price is in a situation where it is difficult to rise or fall, expected to remain stable in the short term. Positive factors are rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate, while negative factors are squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamental: Mine capacity release is limited, supply is tight. Downstream replenishment is active, but mid - traders are cautious. Market sentiment has declined slightly [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 1430, basis is 217, spot premium over futures [3]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [3]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal has changed from long to short [3]. - Expectation: Downstream coking enterprises' production utilization rate is stable, but some have slowed down replenishment due to high coal prices. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke production is limited by high - cost pressure and environmental policies [6]. - Basis: Spot price is 1680, basis is - 5, spot discount to futures [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [7]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is short and the short position is increasing [7]. - Expectation: Coke production is limited, terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. Price - On November 11, 2025, the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, along with price changes for some varieties [10]. - On November 11, 2025, the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports and of different grades are provided, along with price changes for some varieties [11]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [19]. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [28]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures oscillate and decline, closing with a negative candlestick, a shrinking trading volume, and both long and short positions reducing, with more long - position reduction. The market may experience short - term oscillatory consolidation. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system with strong support. Short - term indicators KDJ declined but remained in the strong zone, and the trend indicator showed an increase in bullish power and a decrease in bearish power, with the bullish power having an expanding advantage. The Shanghai zinc ZN2512 is expected to oscillate and rebound [2][19] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1150700 tons, consumption was 1171700 tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc plate production was 9088500 tons, consumption was 9369800 tons, with a supply shortage of 281300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1069600 tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8445700 tons [2] 2. Basis - The spot price was 22810, and the basis was + 135 [2] 3. Inventory - On November 11, LME zinc inventory increased by 400 tons to 35300 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 649 tons to 70518 tons [2] 4. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on November 11 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, details such as previous settlement price, today's opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading amount, and open interest changes were provided. The total trading volume was 119018 lots, the total trading amount was 1352853.18, and the total open interest was 226896 lots with a decrease of 1204 lots [3] 5. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on November 11 - For zinc concentrate, domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2800 yuan/metal ton, and imported zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/ton. For zinc ingots, 0 zinc prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang were in different ranges and had price increases [4] 6. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (October 30 - November 10, 2025) - The total inventory in major markets was 16.32 million tons on October 30, 16.23 million tons on November 3, 16.16 million tons on November 6, and 16.15 million tons on November 10, showing a decreasing trend [5] 7. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on November 11 - The total zinc warrants were 70518 tons, with an increase of 649 tons. Different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Tianjin had different warrant amounts and changes [6] 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 11 - LME zinc inventory in different global warehouses had various changes, with a total inventory of 35300 tons and an increase of 400 tons [7] 9. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on November 11 - Zinc concentrate prices in different regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, Hechi, etc. were mostly 18350 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 60 yuan/ton [8] 10. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on November 11 - 0 zinc ingot prices of different brands such as Hunan Weibahai, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc. all increased by 90 yuan/ton [11] 11. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The planned production value in October was 50.96 million tons, and the actual production was 52.43 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%, and the planned production in November was 52.23 million tons [14] 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on November 11 - For domestic zinc concentrate with a 50% grade, the processing fee in most regions was in the range of 2700 - 2900 yuan/metal ton, and for imported zinc concentrate with a 48% grade, it was 100 US dollars/ton [16] 13. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on November 11 - For the zn2512 contract, details of the top 20 futures companies' trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume and their changes compared to the previous trading day were provided. The total trading volume was 127087 lots with a decrease of 31763 lots, the total long - position volume was 74152 lots with a decrease of 2211 lots, and the total short - position volume was 71398 lots with a decrease of 1149 lots [17]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131 2万吨 环比增 ， . ， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅18 2% 同比降幅6 . , . | 5% 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为31 8792% 环比减少 。 ， . | | | | | 1 44个百分点 . ， | 全国样本企业出货30 88万吨 环比减少6 79% 样本企业产量为53 . ， . , | 2 . | | | | 万吨 环比减少4 31% ， . | 样本企业装置检修量预估为74 5万吨 环比增加22 53% , . ， . , | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. Short - term, it is expected to move in a range [2][5]. - The downstream glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash. However, since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass downstream has weakened [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant production is at a high level, and the second - phase of Yuanxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. The overall supply is expected to be abundant. There are supply disturbances in downstream float glass, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high level, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,170 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,226 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 56 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash inventory in plants is 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to move in a range in the short term [2]. 3.2 Impact Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,210 yuan/ton | 1,155 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan | | Current Value | 1,226 yuan/ton | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 56 yuan | | Change Rate | 1.32% | 1.30% | 1.82% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit by the East China co - production process is - 212 yuan/ton. The production profit is at a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.67%. The weekly production of soda ash is 746,800 tons, including 414,800 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons [21]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 98.36% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the operating rate is 75.92% [27]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in plants is 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][34]. 3.9 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are expected to be oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA10 line. The industrial contradictions remain unresolved, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Market sentiment has warmed up, and steel prices have stabilized in oscillation. However, under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, short - term trend is oscillatory, medium - term is oscillatory, and intraday is weakly oscillatory. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, with the core logic being that industrial contradictions are unresolved and steel prices oscillate at a low level [1]. Market Driving Logic - Commodity sentiment has warmed up, and combined with production restriction disturbances, steel prices have stabilized in oscillation. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Supply has shrunk but remains at a relatively high level this year, and inventory reduction is limited. Demand indicators have declined and are at a low level in the same period in recent years. With the approaching of the off - season, demand is likely to weaken, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and the upward driving force is weak, so it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", with an overall "oscillation thinking" [1] - The coking coal market is in a state of multi - empty stalemate, with supply - side strong expectations driving it to run at a high level, while downstream demand seasonally weakens [5] - The coke market shows a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season, with the upward drive mainly coming from the cost side of coking coal [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - **Price and Viewpoint** - The short - term, medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", with an overall "oscillation thinking" [1][5] - **Driving Logic** - The spot market atmosphere of coking coal is good recently, with more increases and fewer decreases in auctions. The market is in a multi - empty stalemate this week, and the main contract runs in a narrow range [5] - Downstream demand is seasonally weak due to environmental protection and loss pressure, which brings resistance to the upward movement of coking coal futures [5] - Supply - side strong expectations are driven by safety inspections and "anti - involution" disturbances, keeping coking coal futures running at a high level [5] 3.2 Coke - **Price and Viewpoint** - The short - term, medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", with an overall "oscillation thinking" [1][6] - **Driving Logic** - As of the week ending November 7, the daily average output of coke decreased week - on - week, and the daily average output of molten iron of steel mills also decreased, with the profitability of steel mills continuing to decline [6] - The inventory of coke in each link of the industrial chain has decreased. The total inventory of the coke industrial chain within the statistical scope decreased by 129,700 tons week - on - week [6] - The market shows a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season, and the upward drive mainly comes from the cost side of coking coal [6]