1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the cotton industry is "oscillation", suggesting that the short - term demand is average and the supply is loose, with the market likely to fluctuate within a range [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the old - crop inventory shortage has been priced in, and the new - crop abundant harvest reality is being priced. The demand is neutral due to over - capacity in spinning and high operating rates. The inventory shows different trends in commercial and industrial aspects. The profit situation of spinning is poor, while the valuation is relatively low. Macro - policies have both positive and negative impacts. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish as the old - crop inventory shortage has been priced, and the new - crop abundant harvest weak reality is being priced [3]. - **Demand**: Neutral. Excess spinning capacity and high operating rates lead to strong industrial demand for cotton [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is depleting rapidly, while the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3]. - **Base/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the Zhengzhou cotton basis maintained an oscillation, with the Xinjiang double 28 spot basis at 1000 - 1200, and the Zhengzhou cotton September - January spread continued to strengthen [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, and inland spinning has a serious loss. The yarn - cotton spread is running at a low level [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a relatively low level in the past four years [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, which is bullish for the far - month contracts. Internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the tariff exemption period is extended again, which is bearish in terms of sentiment [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillation. The short - term demand is average, and the supply is in a loose pattern, so the market may fluctuate within a range [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For both unilateral and arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. Key risks to watch include domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. PART TWO: Cotton Fundamental Data Upstream Planting - The cotton planting area is expected to increase. The first - time survey in 2025 shows that the national cotton planting area is 4159.9 million mu, and that in Xinjiang is 3678.8 million mu, with year - on - year increases of 1.88% and 3.18% respectively [8][9]. - The cotton yield per mu in 2025 is estimated to be 149.9 kg nationally and 158.5 kg in Xinjiang [10]. Mid - stream - **Inventory**: The finished - product inventory accumulation in mid - stream factories has slowed down. The inventory data of weaving mills and spinning mills are presented in the form of graphs [18]. - **Factory Load**: The operating rates of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are declining [25]. - **Spinning Mill Profit**: Spinning mills are in a loss situation, as shown by the negative spinning immediate profit and low yarn - cotton spot spread [29]. Downstream - The downstream inventory is at a seasonal high, as reflected by the inventory data of textile and clothing enterprises above the designated size [34]. International Market - **US Cotton Exports**: The signing and shipment of US cotton exports are at the lowest level in the same period of history. Exports to different countries show different trends: exports to Pakistan are decreasing year - on - year and at a low level; exports to Vietnam have increased significantly year - on - year in terms of signing and shipment [41][50][56]. PART THREE: Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: It is oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton contracts 09 and 01 shows relevant trends [63]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: The September - January spread and January - May spread of Zhengzhou cotton are presented in the form of graphs [67]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining [69]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt**: The virtual - to - real ratio of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining [74]. - **US Cotton Fund Position**: Data on the net long positions of management funds in US cotton futures and options, as well as the long - position ratios, are presented [82][84]. - **US Cotton Month Spread**: It shows a "Deep Contango" pattern [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic market, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. In the international market, short - term US cotton may maintain a volatile trend. The report suggests short - term trading [48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded this week with a weekly increase of 1.5%. ICE cotton futures declined and then rebounded, with a weekly decrease of 1.01% [10] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 75 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 85 yuan/ton [14] 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In July, 50,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [19] 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - In the first half of August, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons compared with the second half of July [23] 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In July, the yarn inventory was 27.67 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.65 days. The grey cloth inventory was 36.14 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.82 days [27] 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S yarn increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S yarn increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of JC40S yarn increased by 40 yuan/ton [32] 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 539. The number of warehouse receipts was 6,720, and the valid forecasts were 2, with a total of 6,722 [38] 3.1.8 US Cotton Export Situation - As of August 21, the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 179,300 bales, and the net sales of exports in the next year were 0 bales [40] 3.1.9 US Weather Situation - In the US, the total area in drought (D1 - D4) is 27.7%, with D0 - Abnormally Dry at 17.3%, D1 - Moderate Drought at 10.9%, D2 - Severe Drought at 10.8%, D3 - Extreme Drought at 5.5%, and D4 - Exceptional Drought at 0.5% [47] 3.2后市展望 3.2.1 Domestic Market - Xinjiang cotton has basically entered the yield - determining stage. The weather in the main producing areas is ideal, and cotton is growing well. The market expects a slight increase in cotton yield per mu, and the total cotton output in Xinjiang in the 2025/26 season may reach 7 million tons. The expected purchase price of seed cotton is 6 - 6.5 yuan/kg. Textile orders in the peak season are starting, and the operating rate has increased slightly. The 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota has little impact on the market. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [48] 3.2.2 International Market - US cotton declined and then rebounded. The weak US dollar due to the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has boosted the price of US cotton. There is some drought in the southern US, but the impact is limited. The good export situation and high excellent - rate of US cotton suggest that short - term US cotton may maintain a volatile trend [48]

Report Overview - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] Group 1: Report Core View - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,334 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for 2024/25 northern Xinjiang local machine - picked cotton and southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton were given. The cotton yarn market had acceptable transactions, and the cotton fabric market was stable with limited order recovery [7]. - In the overseas market, the weekly export sales data of US cotton weakened, the drought coverage in major cotton - growing areas increased, the good - to - excellent rate decreased slightly week - on - week, and the short - term external market was likely to fluctuate within a range. In the domestic market, the Xinjiang cotton area was in the boll - opening and flocculation stage. There were rumors of new cotton pre - sales, and the expectation of rush - buying at the listing stage increased, but the expected stable - to - increasing output also brought pressure in the long - term. The finished yarn inventory continued to decline slightly, and the market was observing the traditional peak season. The 200,000 - ton sliding - scale duty processing trade quota had limited impact on the market [8]. Group 2: Industry News - As of the week ending August 24, the boll - setting rate of US cotton was 81%, the flocculation rate was 20%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 54% [9]. - As of August 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 1.7126 million tons, a decrease of 143,500 tons from the previous week, and the inventory in Xinjiang was less than one million tons [9]. Group 3: Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and US dollar - Indian rupee exchange rate [17][18][27]

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) is in a range - bound adjustment. Seasonal peak season is approaching, downstream procurement has increased, and market trading has improved. Although textile mills are still in losses, the losses have narrowed. Before the new cotton is listed, ZCE cotton may fluctuate around the expected opening price of seed cotton, with limited upside and downside in the short - term [7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest China Cotton Price Index for Grade 328 is 15,240 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The low basis of 2024/25 Xinjiang Kashi lint (3129/29B/impurity within 3.5) is in the range of CF09 + 1050 - 1200, but the quantity is scarce. More quotes are above CF09 + 1200, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) is mostly above CF09 + 1450, and the low basis is in the range of CF09 + 1350 - 1450. Some CF01 contract quotes are the same, also for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7] - **Domestic Downstream Market**: The seasonal peak season is approaching, downstream procurement and stocking have increased, and market trading has improved. Textile mills' losses have narrowed, but the operating rate has not recovered. Inland textile mills maintain a low operating rate, and inventory has decreased. The price of pure - cotton grey fabric market remains stable, downstream inquiries and sales have not improved continuously, and the overall trading atmosphere is still weak. The overall operating rate of weaving factories has increased slightly, and inventory has slowly declined [7] - **Overseas Market**: As of the week ending August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (53% the previous week, 42% the same period last year); the boll - setting rate was 73% (65% the previous week, 83% the same period last year, 80% the five - year average); the full - boll rate was 13% (8% the previous week, 18% the same period last year, 16% the five - year average); the budding rate was 97% (93% the previous week, 98% the same period last year, 98% the five - year average). The short - term external market is difficult to break out of the range - bound situation [8] - **Domestic Market Outlook**: As the new cotton listing period approaches, the expected output of new cotton is stable with a slight increase. The downstream industry has gradually improved marginally. The inventory of cotton yarn products has decreased slightly, the operating rate of textile mills has remained stable, and the grey fabric end is still dominated by small orders. The overall demand has improved slightly compared with the previous period. The recent market rumor that the pre - purchased price of seed cotton in northern Xinjiang is about 6.3 yuan/kg has put pressure on the market [8] 2. Industry News - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that starting from September 1, 2026, for the warehouse receipts registered in the following cotton delivery warehouses, the warehouse premium and discount will be calculated according to the adjusted standards. For the warehouse receipts registered before September 1, 2026, the warehouse premium and discount will be calculated according to the original standards [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, and exchange rates such as USD/CNY and USD/INR [16][18][19][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with a slight decrease of 0.03% reported [1] - On August 19, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 67.77 cents per pound, with a closing price of 67.64 cents per pound, reflecting a decline of 0.37% [2] - The Indian government has announced the immediate removal of an 11% import duty on cotton and the Agricultural Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC), effective from August 19 to September 30, as a response to U.S. tariffs [2] Group 2 - The Cotton Association of India (CAI) reported that the current cotton crop is growing well, with all ten major growing states receiving adequate rainfall [2] - Despite a 3% decrease in sowing area compared to the previous year, with approximately 10.7 million hectares sown this year versus 11 million hectares last year, an increase in yield of up to 10% is anticipated [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has decided to adjust the warehouse premium standards for cotton delivery warehouses starting September 1, 2026, while maintaining the original standards for those registered before that date [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term increase in cotton prices is significant, and it is advisable to wait for an adjustment. The market is currently in a state where supply and demand are both increasing, and news stimuli are needed to break the balance [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - Last week, both domestic and international cotton prices fluctuated upwards, basically recovering the losses at the end of July. ICE cotton rebounded significantly after the USDA's August supply - demand report lowered the US cotton production and inventory. Zhengzhou cotton also rose after the 90 - day extension of the US - China tariff exemption period [4][5][9]. - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton futures first consolidated and then tended to strengthen. The futures price rebounded rapidly, and the basis weakened significantly [11][12][15]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In the August supply - demand report, the USDA predicted a global cotton supply - demand imbalance. The US cotton production was significantly lowered, while China's cotton production was raised as expected. The consumption in China and India showed an increase - decrease pattern, and the global cotton supply - demand was on the verge of balance [19]. - As of August 7, 2025, the national new cotton picking, processing, and sales rates were at high levels. The sales rate was 97.7%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points year - on - year and 8.4 percentage points compared to the average of the past four years [21][22]. - In June 2025, China's cotton import volume was 27,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.42% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.09%. The "rush to export" behavior in the textile and garment industry from April to June overdrew some orders, reducing the cotton import demand [23][24]. - In June 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was about 109,000 tons. Although it ended the three - month consecutive month - on - month decline, the annual import demand was still in a contraction channel, with the cumulative import volume from January to June decreasing by 13.61% year - on - year [26][27]. Industry Operation - In July 2025, the cloth production was 2.7 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. It is expected that the production from July to August will remain weak, and the month - on - month decline may expand to 3% - 5% [32]. - In June 2025, textile exports were 12.048 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. Clothing exports were 15.267 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The retail sales of domestic clothing in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year [34][35][39]. Inventory and Operation of Enterprises - In July 2025, China's cotton commercial inventory was at a four - year low, while the industrial inventory was increasing. The commercial inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 588,400 tons, and the industrial inventory was 898,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91,400 tons [41][42]. - Spinning mills mainly digested cotton inventory, and the cotton yarn inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. The opening rate of Chinese cotton spinning mills began to pick up, while the opening rates of Vietnamese and Indian spinning mills were at low levels [44][46][47]. - The spinning profit of domestic spinning mills was stable. The cotton yarn inventory of grey fabric mills continued to replenish, and the inventory of imported yarn at ports rebounded [56][57][59]. Fund Position By August 5, the fund's cotton position was a net short position of 55,882 lots, indicating that the fund continued to increase short positions before the USDA report [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall analysis of cotton is neutral, with multiple factors showing both positive and negative signals. The US Department of Agriculture's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract should focus on the battle at the 14,000 mark in the short - term. If it can stand above 14,000, there is upward momentum; otherwise, the future trend will be weak [4]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production, consumption, and inventory. The USDA's August report shows a production of 2539.2 million tons and consumption of 2568.8 million tons, with an ending inventory of 1609.3 million tons. The rural department's July 2025/26 forecast shows a production of 625 million tons, import of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and ending inventory of 823 million tons. Overall, it is considered neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,214, with a basis of 1059 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast of ending inventory is 823 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is bullish, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The US Department of Agriculture's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The short - term focus of the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract is on the 14,000 mark [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Forecast**: In August, the total global cotton production is 2539.2 million tons (a decrease of 39.1 million tons from July), consumption is 2568.8 million tons (a decrease of 3 million tons from July), and ending inventory is 1609.3 million tons (a decrease of 74.2 million tons from July) [10]. - **ICAC Global Forecast**: For the 2025/26 period, global production is 2590 million tons (an increase of 40 million tons or 1.6% year - on - year), consumption is 2560 million tons (basically flat), ending inventory is 1710 million tons (an increase of 26 million tons or 1.6% year - on - year), and global trade volume is 970 million tons (an increase of 36 million tons or 3.9% year - on - year) [12]. - **Chinese Ministry of Agriculture Forecast**: In July 2025/26, production is 625 million tons, import is 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 823 million tons [4]. - **Other Data**: In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In June, China's cotton imports were 3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%; cotton yarn imports were 11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [4]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is bullish [4].

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Key Points 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) has been fluctuating and adjusting. The latest price index of 328-grade cotton is 15,214 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of 2024/25 Xinjiang Kashi lint 3129/29B/impurity within 3.5 is still in the range of CF09+1050 - 1200, but the quantity is scarce, and most quotes are above CF09+1200. The basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine-picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 is mostly above CF09+1450, with a small amount lower than this price, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The pure cotton yarn market has slightly improved as the peak season approaches. Low-price resources have decreased, and the trading center has slightly increased, but market operations remain cautious. Downstream fabric mills and traders have not made large-scale restocking actions. The all-cotton grey fabric market has shown little improvement, with only partial sales slightly better. Currently, fabric mills still have few orders, and the inquiry and trading situation in the domestic market has not improved significantly, while only a small number of export orders have been placed [7]. - According to the US Department of Agriculture's Tuesday supply and demand report, due to a significant reduction in the planting area, the US cotton production and ending stocks are far lower than market expectations, and bullish sentiment has been quickly released. Without weather speculation, the market is closely watching the subsequent export sales data for the 2025/26 season to verify the actual demand intensity after the USDA's production cut. In the short term, the external market is difficult to break out of the range-bound pattern [8]. - In the domestic market, the China Cotton Association's survey of cotton growth and expected production in July shows that the total production is expected to be 6.895 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. There are still some differences in the expected opening price of new cotton. Ginners expect it to be 6 yuan/kg or lower, while farmers mostly expect it to be around 6.5 yuan/kg. Some post-point pricing resources of new cotton have started pre - sales, with the basis of 41 double 29 - grade resources around 850 - 1000 yuan/ton. The downstream market has shown a marginal improvement. There has been a slight increase in sample orders for grey fabrics, and the sales of cotton yarn have also improved slightly after the cotton price stabilized. The finished product inventory has stopped accumulating, and the operating rate has temporarily stabilized. With the weakening of external market support, Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating and adjusting. Attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high resistance level [8]. 2. Industry News - In July 2025, the China Cotton Association surveyed the cotton growth situation and expected production. The national cotton planting area is 44.823 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The expected yield per mu is 153.8 kg, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The total production is expected to be 6.895 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the Zhengzhou cotton futures spreads (CF1 - 5, CF5 - 9, CF9 - 1), China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and exchange rate data (USD/CNY, USD/INR) [16][18][30]

Report Title - New Crop's High-Yield Expectation Limits the Increase of Cotton Futures Price [1] Core View - The new crop's high-yield expectation restricts the increase of cotton futures prices. The cotton market shows a complex situation with different trends in various aspects such as futures prices, spot trading, and market demand [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: CF2601 closed at 14,130 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.07% and a night - session closing price of 14,120 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% change; CY2511 closed at 20,195 yuan/ton with a 0.90% daily increase and a night - session closing price of 20,185 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change; ICE Cotton 12 closed at 67.7 cents/pound with a - 1.08% daily change [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 645,549 lots, an increase of 329,664 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 784,336 lots, an increase of 34,927 lots; the trading volume of CY2511 was 10,265 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 19,810 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,006, a decrease of 81, and the effective forecast was 281, a decrease of 1; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 74, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, with an increase of 74 [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,142 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a 0.66% increase; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase; the 3128B index was 15,188 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; the international cotton index M was 75.93 cents/pound, an increase of 2 cents/pound with a 2.21% increase [2] - **Price Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News Domestic Cotton Spot Situation - The spot trading of cotton slightly improved, but the improvement was limited. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases, and the spot basis was generally stable. Different regions had different basis ranges for cotton sales [2][3] Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises' Situation - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market slightly improved, with increased sales. Spinning mills raised their quotes, and the price center of cotton yarn slightly increased. The all - cotton grey fabric market was partially better, but the overall improvement was limited, with only small orders being traded. Downstream inquiries and orders recovered moderately. Dyeing mills' orders were average, and some expected an improvement in September orders. The loom factory's operating rate recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory level remained high but showed a downward trend [2][3] US Cotton Situation - The ICE cotton futures slightly declined yesterday. After two consecutive days of increases, ICE cotton had a technical adjustment. However, the significant downward adjustment of the 2025/26 US cotton production forecast in the USDA's August supply - demand report is expected to support the ICE cotton futures [2][4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral situation. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [6]

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 海外市场，下一年度新棉签约进度同比偏慢，CFTC 基金净多持仓维持低位运 行，外盘维持宽幅区间震荡重心略有下移，关注 8 月 USDA 供需报告指引。国内市 场，距离新花上市还有 ...