国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年06月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：偏强运行 01 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 综述：地缘冲突带来不确定性，短期多配 ➢ 国内现货：本期港口甲醇市场现货价格继续偏强，其中江苏价格波动区间在2300-2420元/吨，广东价格波动在2280-2320元/吨。港口甲醇市场由 于对市场可流通量的担忧，月内买气好转，推动市场价格上涨，基差走强，但涨至高位后，市场买气走弱，价格窄幅回落，但整体仍维持强势运行为 主。本期内地甲醇市场小幅推涨，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1883-1897元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2150-2160元/吨。受宏观 情绪影响，盘面及港口价格上调，产区企业走量不走价积极超卖，叠加烯烃外采需求尚存，价格处于相对低位吸引部分贸易商介入，周内多数产区工 厂出货顺畅。 (隆众资讯） ➢ 基本面：本周 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-06-12 港口累库速率加快 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润603元/吨（+3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1898元/吨（+3），内蒙北线基差216元/吨（-4），内蒙南线1890元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2220元/吨（+10），鲁 南基差138元/吨（+4）；河南2105元/吨（+0），河南基差23元/吨（-6）；河北2105元/吨（+25），河北基差83元/吨（+19）。 隆众内地工厂库存379120吨（+8630），西北工厂库存237100吨（+2600）；隆众内地工厂待发订单302090吨（+39910）， 西北工厂待发订单167000吨（+17000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2368元/吨（-12），太仓基差86元/吨（-18），CFR中国271美元/吨（+5），华东进口价差-7元/ 吨（-3），常州甲醇2325元/吨；广东甲醇2305元/吨（-5），广东基差23元/吨（-11）。隆众港口总库存652200吨（+71000）， 江苏港口库存312000吨（+30700），浙江港口库存156000吨（ ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-06-10 海外装置检修问题仍存 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润588元/吨（-10）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1883元/吨（-10），内蒙北线基差206元/吨（-23），内蒙南线1880元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2205元/吨（+10）， 鲁南基差128元/吨（-3）；河南2090元/吨（+20），河南基差13元/吨（+7）；河北2060元/吨（+0），河北基差43元/吨 （-13）。隆众内地工厂库存370490吨（+15540），西北工厂库存234500吨（+18500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单262180 吨（+12288），西北工厂待发订单150000吨（+21500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2338元/吨（+26），太仓基差61元/吨（+13），CFR中国263美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-3元/ 吨（+8），常州甲醇2320元/吨；广东甲醇2300元/吨（+5），广东基差23元/吨（-8）。隆众港口总库存581200吨（+58240）， 江苏港口库存281300吨（+51300），浙江港口库存14 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Short - term methanol has rebound momentum due to the recent rebound in oil prices and coal prices, and the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading. However, the upward momentum of methanol is insufficient. From a valuation perspective, methanol is still not cheap compared to upstream coal, but it is relatively cheap compared to downstream polyolefins, and there is room for valuation repair. From a driving perspective, after the weakening of macro - impacts, methanol returns to its own fundamental pricing. Supply from imports and inland has recovered quickly, while the demand side has limited room for further improvement, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern [1] Summary by Relevant Content Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2338 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.47% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2279 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.40%; MA09 closed at 2277 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.57% [1] - Methanol spot prices: In太仓, it was 2325 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.87%; in Shandong, 2162.50 yuan/ton, up 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.82%; in Guangdong, 2300 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.22%; in Shaanxi, 1937.50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.52%; in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, there was no change; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1882.50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or - 0.53% [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 13 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Raw Material Prices - Coal spot prices: Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 all remained unchanged at 425 yuan/ton, 470 yuan/ton, and 480 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: In Hohhot and Chongqing, they remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit remained unchanged at 299.70 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 600 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit of methanol: Northwest MTO profit was 587.60 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 2.55%; East China MTO profit was - 611.07 yuan/ton, down 108.50 yuan/ton or - 21.59%; acetic acid profit was 473.45 yuan/ton, down 39.25 yuan/ton or - 7.66%; MTBE profit was 303.32 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 19.74%; formaldehyde profit remained unchanged at - 186.40 yuan/ton; another product's profit was 798 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or - 11.14% [1] Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 opened at 2265 yuan/ton, closed at 2277 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 590228 lots and an open interest of 819092, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. All contracts had trading on the trading day [1] - Foreign information: Currently, two methanol units with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply situation [1]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2277 | 13 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -61 | 2 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 819092 | 19448 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -90317 | 3480 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 4600 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2310 | 10 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 18 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, methanol has a rebound momentum due to the recent rebound of oil prices and coal, and the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading. However, the upward momentum of methanol is insufficient. From a valuation perspective, methanol is not cheap compared to upstream coal, but it is relatively cheap compared to downstream polyolefins, and there is room for valuation repair. From a driving perspective, after the weakening of macro - impact, methanol returns to its own fundamental pricing. The supply of imports and inland supply recovers quickly, while the demand side has limited room for further improvement, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern and insufficient upward momentum for methanol [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 increased from 2327.00 yuan/ton to 2319.00 yuan/ton, up 0.34%; MA05 increased from 2270.00 yuan/ton to 2263.00 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; MA09 increased from 2264.00 yuan/ton to 2259.00 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [1] - Methanol spot prices: In some regions like Guangdong, it increased by 0.11% (from 2292.50 yuan/ton to 2295.00 yuan/ton), and in Hubei, it increased by 0.23% (from 2220.00 yuan/ton to 2225.00 yuan/ton). While in regions such as Shandong, Shaanxi, etc., there was no change [1] - The difference between Taicang spot and MA decreased by 10.50 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - Coal spot prices: There was no change in the prices of Ordos Q5500 (425.00 yuan/ton), Datong Q5500 (470.00 yuan/ton), and Yulin Q6000 (480.00 yuan/ton) [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: There was no change in the prices in Hohhot (3.94 yuan/cubic meter) and Chongqing (3.30 yuan/cubic meter) [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 299.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 600.00 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: The profit of Northwest MTO increased by 1.73% (from 577.60 yuan/ton to 587.60 yuan/ton), while the profit of East China MTO decreased by 5.23% (from - 477.57 yuan/ton to - 502.57 yuan/ton). The profit of MTBE increased by 14.36% (from 221.52 yuan/ton to 253.32 yuan/ton), and the profit of acetic acid decreased by 0.53% (from 515.45 yuan/ton to 512.70 yuan/ton) [1] 4. News and Information - Abroad: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply [1] - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2269 yuan/ton, closing at 2264 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 607,691 lots and a position of 7,996,440. It was a trading day with volume reduction and position reduction [1]

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The port continued to accumulate inventory this week due to limited overseas plant maintenance and increased arrival pressure. The inventory accumulation rate in the future needs attention. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol production remains at a high level, and the inventory of inland factories continued to rise this week. The low operation rate of MTBE in traditional downstream industries has dragged down the inland demand. Although the methanol production profit has declined, it is still higher than the same period last year [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol basis in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01 futures contracts) [7][9][21]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][28][30]. 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences It shows various regional price differences, like the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, etc. [2][37][46]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits The report includes the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [43][53]. Market Data - **Inland Market**: The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (unchanged). The production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 580 yuan/ton (+13). The prices of methanol in different inland regions have increased to varying degrees. The inventory of inland factories and the volume of pending orders have both increased. For example, the inventory of inland factories is 370,490 tons (+15,540), and the pending orders of inland factories are 262,180 tons (+12,288) [1]. - **Port Market**: The price of methanol in Taicang is 2302 yuan/ton (+27), and the port inventory has increased significantly. The total port inventory is 581,200 tons (+58,240). The downstream MTO operation rate is 85.19% (+1.37%). There are also changes in regional price differences [2]. Strategy The recommended strategy is to cautiously short - sell for hedging [4].

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 5 日 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业 ...

| | | | 甲醇日评20250604:短期反弹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 单位 | | 2025/6/3 | 2025/5/30 | 变化值 | 要你值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 元/吨 | | 2289.00 | 2275.00 | 14.00 | 0.62% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 元/吨 | | 2231.00 | 2217.00 | 14.00 | 0.63% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 | | 2225.00 | 2208.00 | 17.00 | 0.77% | | | | 元/吨 太仓 | | 2262.50 | 2242.50 | 20.00 | 0.89% | | | | 山东 元/吨 | | 2150.00 | 2150.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 元/吨 | | 2270.00 | 2267.50 | 2.50 | 0.11% | | 及其差 ...