Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair, making methanol relatively over - valued. In terms of drivers, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, as the proportion of old production facilities is small. Currently, inland coal - based methanol supply is gradually returning, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, and port inventory accumulation is accelerating, which suppresses the spot price in East China. After the influence of coking coal sentiment weakens, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly. (View score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2479 yuan/ton to 2435 yuan/ton, a decline of 44 yuan/ton (-1.77%); MA05 dropped from 2457 yuan/ton to 2416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton (-1.67%); MA09 fell from 2375 yuan/ton to 2340 yuan/ton, a decline of 35 yuan/ton (-1.47%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Prices in regions like Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong decreased, while those in Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Hubei remained unchanged. Inner Mongolia's price dropped from 2125 yuan/ton to 2120 yuan/ton (-0.24%) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from -104 yuan/ton to -85 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - **Coal Prices**: The price of Buzhoushui Q5500 coal increased from 512.5 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton (1.46%), while prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1]. - **Natural Gas Prices**: Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.19 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 452.6 yuan/ton to 446.3 yuan/ton (-1.39%), and natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at -412 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profits**: Northwest MTO profit increased from -33.6 yuan/ton to -11 yuan/ton (67.26%), and East China MTO profit increased from -620.07 yuan/ton to -550.07 yuan/ton (11.29%). Profits of some downstream products like acetic acid increased, while those of MTBE and formaldehyde remained unchanged [1]. 3.4 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated downward, opening at 2476 yuan/ton, closing at 2435 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 427,587 lots and an open interest of 557,439 lots [1]. - **Foreign**: An 850,000 - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is under maintenance, and a 600,000 - ton downstream plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance in mid - August. In a Middle - Eastern country, multiple methanol plants are operating stably, with the total loading volume in August rising to 480,000 tons, an increase of 215,000 tons (81.13%) compared to the same period last month [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Given the weak fundamentals, after the influence of coking coal sentiment weakens, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Port remains weak with rapid inventory accumulation this week. Overseas methanol plants are operating at a high level, increasing the arrival pressure. The downstream MTO device, Xingxing, will be shut down for one - month maintenance starting at the end of July. There is a possibility of methanol production reduction in Shandong during the military parade. Inland methanol prices are stronger than those at the port. Inland factory inventory is low, and coal - based methanol production is on the rise, with further recovery expected at the end of August. Some downstream industries like acetic acid are seeing a decline in production, and formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season [2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) against the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [5][6][10][11][14][22][24] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [5][26][30][34] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures present total port inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [5][36][38] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures show price differences in different regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [5][40][47][50] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [5][51][58] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage on MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 when it is high [3]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating of the Industry - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. In terms of valuation, upstream coal - based profits are still relatively high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor but have room for repair, so methanol valuation is relatively high. Regarding the driving factors, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production as the proportion of old - fashioned production facilities is small, and there is no expectation of a significant reduction in methanol supply. Currently, the supply of coal - based methanol in the inland area is gradually increasing, and downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, making further inventory building unlikely. It is highly probable that the port will continue to accumulate inventory, which will put pressure on spot prices in East China. After the influence of coking coal sentiment weakens, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly. (Viewpoint score: 0) [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures Prices - MA01 closed at 2496.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 17.00 yuan/ton or - 0.68% from August 12 [1]. - MA05 closed at 2461.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 4.00 yuan/ton or - 0.16% from August 12 [1]. - MA09 closed at 2391.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 16.00 yuan/ton or - 0.67% from August 12 [1] 2. Methanol Spot Prices - The spot price in Taicang was 2375.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, unchanged from August 12 [1]. - In Shandong, it was 2355.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 5.00 yuan/ton or 0.21% from August 12 [1]. - In Guangdong, it was 2375.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 7.50 yuan/ton or - 0.32% from August 12 [1] 3. Coal and Natural Gas Prices - The spot price of Ordos Q5500 coal was 510.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 2.50 yuan/ton or 0.49% from August 12 [1]. - The spot price of Datong Q5500 coal was 570.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 17.50 yuan/ton or 3.07% from August 12 [1]. - The industrial natural gas price in Hohhot was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter on August 13, 2025, unchanged from August 12 [1] 4. Methanol Profit Situation - The profit of coal - based methanol was 452.60 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 13.70 yuan/ton or 3.12% from August 12 [1]. - The profit of natural gas - based methanol was - 432.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 20.00 yuan/ton or 4.63% from August 12 [1]. - The profit of Northwest MTO was - 33.60 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 40.40 yuan/ton or - 183.17% from August 12 [1] 5. Methanol Downstream Profit - The profit of acetic acid was 204.54 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 4.15 yuan/ton or 2.07% from August 12 [1]. - The profit of MTBE was 105.88 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 7.52 yuan/ton or - 7.10% from August 12 [1]. - The profit of formaldehyde was - 301.60 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 9.60 yuan/ton or - 3.18% from August 12 [1] 6. Important Information - The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2386 yuan/ton, closing at 2375 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 271,458 lots and an open interest of 308,231, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - In the Middle East, a 1 - million - ton methanol plant has resumed normal operation in the past two days, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a certain Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1]

甲醇日报 | 2025-08-13 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤470元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润710元/吨（+23）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2125元/吨（+23），内蒙北线基差334元/吨（+21），内蒙南线2100元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2390元/吨（+23）， 鲁南基差199元/吨（+21）；河南2260元/吨（+10），河南基差69元/吨（+8）；河北2275元/吨（+0），河北基差144元 /吨（-2）。隆众内地工厂库存293688吨（-30832），西北工厂库存185500吨（-30500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单240800 吨（+10075），西北工厂待发订单122800吨（+10800）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2377元/吨（+3），太仓基差-14元/吨（+1），CFR中国269美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差5元/吨 （-7），常州甲醇2465元/吨；广东甲醇2370元/吨（+0），广东基差-21元/吨（-2）。隆众港口总库存925480吨（+117080）， 江苏港口库存498000吨（+79000），浙江港口库存144000吨（-9000），广东 ...

| 甲醇日评20250812: 内地煤制甲醇供应逐步增加 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 变化值 | 2025/8/8 | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/8/11 | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 | 2485.00 | 2475.00 | 元/吨 | 10.00 | 0.40% | | | | | 元/吨 | MA05 | 0.49% | 2451.00 | 2439.00 | 12.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2389.00 | 2383.00 | 6.00 | 0.25% | | | | | 元/吨 | 2375.00 | 2380.00 | -5.00 | 太仓 | -0.21% | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2330.00 | -0.21% | 2335.00 | -5.00 | | | | | 元/吨 | 广东 | 2375.00 | 2372.50 | 2.50 | 0.11% | 期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-07甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：基本面分化加剧，预计甲醇后期区域性走势特征凸显。港口市场，预计本周进口到货集中下，港口累库概 率较大，同时浙江煤制烯烃装置停车检修加上行业淡季，一定程度上拖累整体需求，预测本周港口市场偏弱调整为主， 需持续关注进口到货及宏观外围消息。内地方面，虽然甲醇开工处于增加趋势，但内地企业库存偏低短期供应无压力， 叠加烯烃装置重启以及西北CTO企业仍有外采需求，供需基本面健康对内地甲醇价格有支撑，但同时受港口弱势行情拖 累，预计后期内地甲醇维持窄幅震荡调整阶段；中性 2、基差： ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - As the previous policy's bullish expectations are digested by the market, the coal - chemical sector has corrected, and the cost support for methanol has weakened. The fundamental logic will dominate the futures market. With domestic methanol plants resuming production, supply pressure is rising, imports are sufficient, and port inventory is expected to increase significantly. In a weak supply - demand context, the methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Situation - Although there was concentrated maintenance in domestic methanol production areas in early July, the spot price didn't rise significantly due to sufficient downstream inventory. Since late July, previously shut - down plants have resumed production, and the methanol operating rate will gradually increase. As of the week of August 1, the domestic average methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, a 3.28 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last month, and an 11.46 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The weekly average methanol output was 193.02 tons, a 3.13 - ton increase from the previous week, a 5.69 - ton decrease from the same period last month, and a 31.20 - ton increase from the same period last year. Short - term domestic methanol supply recovery is greater than maintenance losses [3] - Since the third quarter, methanol supply in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America has been sufficient. Although weather affected the arrival and unloading of imported methanol in China, the overall impact was limited, and the expectation of significant inventory accumulation at ports in East and South China is strong. In July, due to typhoons, only 110.69 tons of imported methanol were unloaded, and over 20 tons were postponed to August. Longzhong Information predicts that without weather interference, China's methanol imports in August will reach 155 tons, a monthly record high [4] Demand Situation - The recent shutdown of olefin plants in Zhejiang has increased the inventory accumulation pressure at methanol ports in East China. Although inland CTO procurement has improved apparent port demand, with the expected significant increase in methanol imports in August and no increase in the load of coastal olefin plants, the expectation of port inventory accumulation has risen, possibly leading to methanol flowing from ports to inland areas. As of the week of August 1, the methanol port inventory in East and South China was about 65.03 tons, a 6.32 - ton increase from the previous week, a 15.06 - ton increase from the same period last month, and a 15.80 - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory accumulation pressure, low trader purchasing willingness, weak basis, and weak supply - demand expectations have led to a significant decline in spot trading volume [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that with the supply of methanol increasing, shorting on rallies is the main strategy. Although coal prices have rebounded slightly during the peak coal - demand season, domestic methanol supply remains abundant due to high - level stable coal - to - methanol profits and increased methanol production after the autumn maintenance. Meanwhile, imports are recovering, and port inventories are accumulating as arrivals increase. Despite stable downstream demand, the overall situation favors a bearish outlook on methanol [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - In the futures market, the futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 2390 (-13/-0.54%). In the spot market, prices varied by region. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia南线 was priced at 2080 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia北线 at 2060 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, the price in Lunan was 2300 yuan/ton, and in Lubei was 2310 yuan/ton. At ports, the price in Taicang was 2360 yuan/ton [4]. Important Information - In the current cycle (20250726 - 20250801), the international (ex - China) methanol output was 1030453 tons, an increase of 8500 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 70.64%, an increase of 0.58% from the previous week [5]. Logic Analysis - **Supply**: Coal - mining rates in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest have dropped significantly, but coal prices have rebounded due to stable demand. The methanol auction prices of mainstream enterprises in the northwest are firm, and coal - to - methanol profits are around 650 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant as the methanol operating rate remains high and stable. In terms of imports, the international methanol device operating rate has continued to rise, the US - dollar price has fallen slightly, and imports have returned to a positive spread. Iranian devices have gradually increased their loads, non - Iranian devices are operating stably, and the external - market operating rate has reached a new high this year [6]. - **Demand**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, with a decline in the operating rate. However, the operating rate of MTO devices has increased, but some MTO devices are not operating at full capacity [6]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are accumulating due to increased imports, and the basis is firm. The inventory of inland enterprises has shown a narrow - range fluctuation [6]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short on rallies, do not chase short positions [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7]. - **Options**: Sell call options [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views - Methanol overseas operating rates remain high, with significant subsequent arrival pressure. Xingxing MTO's maintenance for one month and MTO's route change due to maintenance have pushed up Jiangsu port inventories, keeping the port market weak. Inland coal - based methanol operating rates are still low but will gradually recover in early August. Traditional downstream demand shows some resilience, with inland factory inventories decreasing again, resulting in a stronger inland market compared to the port [2]. - The overall situation is an inland - strong and port - weak pattern [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, and basis between different regions' spot and main futures [6][8][10]. - It also shows inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05 futures contracts, 05 and 09 futures contracts, and 09 and 01 futures contracts [21][23]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures cover Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [25][29][30]. 3. Methanol Operating Rates and Inventories - Information includes methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) [33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences - It shows price differences such as between Lubei and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, and other regional combinations [37][47][49]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53][57]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when the spread is high [3]. - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when the spread is high [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 show that the port market may be supported by coal reform in the short - term, but the expected concentrated import arrivals next week may limit the rise. The inland market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability, but policies have a positive impact on the mentality of inland operators. It is expected that the inland methanol market will continue to be stable with a slight upward trend this week. Overall, it is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Expected methanol price this week: It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate, and MA2509 will operate in the range of 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamental analysis of methanol 2509: The port market may be affected by coal reform and import arrivals; the inland market has a weak supply - demand situation. The base - difference shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price; the inventory in ports has decreased; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average; the main - force position is net short with a decrease in short positions [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some device shutdowns such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xiye; decreased methanol production in Iran and low port inventory; the commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen and the planned commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong this month; external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in the Northwest [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: The resumption of previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; expected concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season and a significant decline in MTBE operation; certain profit margins for coal - based methanol production and active sales; inventory accumulation in some producing - area factories due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot market**: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 665 yuan/ton, CFR China main port is 277 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2445 yuan/ton. The prices in different domestic regions vary, such as 2407 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, 2230 yuan/ton in southern Shandong, etc. [8]. - **Futures market**: The futures closing price is 2419 yuan/ton, the registered warehouse receipts are 8834, and the effective forecast is 0. The base - difference is - 12 yuan/ton, and the import spread is 26 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spread structure**: The spread between Jiangsu and southern Shandong is 177 yuan/ton, and the spread between China and Southeast Asia is - 57 US dollars/ton [8]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, with a decrease of 3.81% compared to the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, and the Southwest have also changed [8]. - **Inventory situation**: As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 58.71 tons, with a decrease of 0.89 tons compared to the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 0.25 tons to 32.58 tons [5]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plant maintenance**: Multiple plants in different regions such as the Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and production reduction due to various reasons [57]. - **Foreign methanol plant operation**: Some plants in Iran are in the process of resuming production, and plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions, including normal operation, low - level operation, and planned shutdowns [58]. - **Methanol - olefin plant operation**: Methanol - olefin plants in different regions have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and shutdown. For example, some plants in the Northwest and East China are in normal operation, while some are in maintenance or have been shut down for a long time [59].