Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The current lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price decline cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again". When the futures rebound due to macro expectations and supply - side disturbances, a "step - by - step" upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" is formed [3]. - The cost curve is flattening due to production process optimization, which drives the downward shift of the lithium carbonate price center [3]. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disturbances, and better - than - expected off - season performance; in the fourth quarter, the futures price is expected to fluctuate downward as technological transformation is completed and production is concentrated [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a historical percentile of 73.5% over three years [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 70,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan (-0.34%) from the previous day and up 1,220 yuan (1.76%) from the previous week. The trading volume is 792,909 lots, up 48,749 lots (6.55%) from the previous day and down 541,250 lots (-40.57%) from the previous week. The open interest is 272,753 lots, down 27,867 lots (-9.27%) from the previous day and down 89,301 lots (-24.67%) from the previous week [8]. - **Month - spread Data**: The LC09 - 11 month - spread is 280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 480 yuan (-63%) from the previous week. The LC11 - 12 month - spread is - 180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 yuan (13%) from the previous week [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,775 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan (10.59%) from the previous week; the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 5 - 5.5%) is 5,735 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan (-1.55%) from the previous day and up 275 yuan (5.04%) from the previous week. The average price of lithium spodumene (Li₂O: 6%, Brazilian CIF) is 780 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars (1.96%) from the previous week [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (-0.21%) from the previous day and up 2,050 yuan (2.98%) from the previous week. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (-0.27%) from the previous day and up 2,500 yuan (3.55%) from the previous week [18]. - **Price Spread**: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (-2.33%) from the previous day and up 450 yuan (27.27%) from the previous week [21]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis data of lithium carbonate shows different values for different brands. For example, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI₂CO₃≥99.8%, LC2507) is 100 yuan [26]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 12,276, unchanged from the previous day. Some warehouses, such as Wugang Wuxi and Jiangsu Bennigang Port, had a decrease in warehouse receipts [29][30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit The report shows the production profit of purchasing lithium ore externally, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary part of this output [32]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and fear of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) to lock in finished - product profits at a recommended ratio of 50%, sell call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans and fear of raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [2][3] 2. Report's Core View - The sentiment of lithium carbonate futures and spot markets fluctuates greatly, and the divergence between buyers and sellers in the spot market is large. The market is easily influenced by news. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to buy double - straddle options [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: On July 29, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a medium - low level. The trading volume was 744,160 lots (-261,235), and the open interest was 300,620 lots (-77,852). The prices of most contracts decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was -1,420 yuan, a decrease of 380 yuan compared with the previous day [3] - **Spot Market**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price (basis) was 780 yuan, an increase of 1,530 yuan compared with the previous day. The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and different grades of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc., all showed different degrees of change [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased [3] - **Downstream Demand**: Last week, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in June, the production scheduling of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate decreased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, in June, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production scheduling of energy - storage batteries increased in June [3] 3.3 Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 12,276 tons (unchanged), the social inventory was destocked, the smelters destocked, and the downstream and other inventories changed [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][11]. - The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,400 - 72,280 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate was 18,630 tons, 53% higher than the historical average level. It is predicted that the output in the next month will increase to 81,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The import volume in June 2025 was 17,698 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in the next month will be 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.31% [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,878 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%. The inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,552 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen in the next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 69,611 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2.47%, with a production profit of 2,489 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite was 77,138 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.59%, with a production loss of 6,968 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Market Indicators**: On July 29, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 2,310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory was 143,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%, higher than the historical average level. The MA20 of the market trend is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20. The net short position of the main contract decreased [8]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of changes, such as a 1.61% increase in the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, a 1.73% increase in the price of (electric - industrial) lithium carbonate, and a 0.44% increase in the price of micronized lithium hydroxide [13]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: On the supply side, the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.80%, the daily production cost of spodumene decreased by 2.47%, and the monthly processing cost decreased by 2.89%. On the demand side, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09%, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.24% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed a certain trend of change over time, and the production of lithium ore in China's sample spodumene mines and the total output of domestic lepidolite also showed different trends in different years [24]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate showed fluctuations, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed over time [24]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in short supply and some months in surplus [27]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly operating rate and weekly output of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends. The monthly output and monthly capacity of lithium carbonate also changed over time [30]. - **Import and Recycling**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the monthly recycling volume of waste lithium - ion batteries also showed different trends [30][31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide, the monthly operating rate from different sources (causticization and smelting), and the production volume showed different trends [37]. - **Export Volume**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide in China from 2019 to 2025 showed different trends [37]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials (spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, recycled materials, etc.) showed different trends over time [43][46]. - **Processing and Purification Profit**: The processing profit between different types of lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained and micronized) and the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also showed different trends [46][49]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelters, downstream, and others) showed different trends [51]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelters and downstream) also showed different trends [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Output**: The price of batteries, the monthly output of battery cells, the monthly power battery loading volume, and the monthly power battery cell shipment volume showed different trends [55]. - **Battery Export and Inventory**: The export volume of lithium batteries and the inventory of battery cells also showed different trends [55][58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary precursors, the cost - profit of 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) ternary precursors, and the processing fee showed different trends [61]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly output of ternary precursors and the capacity utilization rate also showed different trends [61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [64]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials, the cost - profit trend, and the processing fee showed different trends [67][69]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production volume, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory of ternary materials also showed different trends [67][69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, the production cost of iron phosphate, and the cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [71]. - **Production and Inventory**: The monthly output, monthly export volume, and weekly inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium also showed different trends [74][76]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production volume, sales volume, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends [79][80]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles in the Passenger Car Association and the monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index also showed different trends [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The recent strong rise in the lithium carbonate futures market is mainly driven by mine - end disturbance news, including issues with lithium mica mines in Jiangxi and the suspension of salt lake mining by some companies. The uncertainty of lithium resource mining approvals and strong macro - commodity sentiment have led to the rise. If there are more domestic resource shutdowns, the supply - demand pattern may reverse. The short - term futures market may be strongly influenced by capital sentiment and policies [3] Market Analysis - On July 24, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 opened at 70,180 yuan/ton and closed at 76,680 yuan/ton, with a 7.21% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,770,283 lots, and the open interest was 436,727 lots (362,054 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 690 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 11,654 lots, a change of 900 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 69,200 - 71,900 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,400 - 69,400 yuan/ton, also a 100 - yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 790 US dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar/ton change from the previous day. Due to the high price being unacceptable to downstream enterprises, the procurement willingness is weak, and the overall trading volume is light [1] Inventory and Production - The latest total inventory is 142,620 tons (140,793 tons in the previous period), including 58,039 tons in smelters (58,598 tons in the previous period), 41,271 tons in downstream inventories (40,765 tons in the previous period), and 43,310 tons in other inventories (41,430 tons in the previous period) [2] - The latest weekly total production is 18,630 tons (19,115 tons in the previous period), including 9,324 tons of lithium carbonate produced from pyroxene (8,994 tons in the previous period), 5,100 tons from mica (5,075 tons in the previous period), 3,282 tons from salt lakes (3,265 tons in the previous period), and 1,409 tons from recycled materials (1,479 tons in the previous period) [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: None [3] - **Inter - period**: None [4] - **Inter - variety**: None [4] - **Spot - futures**: None [4] - **Options**: None [4]

Group 1 - The main contract for lithium carbonate has increased by 6% in a single day, currently priced at 79,160 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,115 tons, a 1.60% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average. In June 2025, production was 78,090 tons, and next - month's production is forecasted to be 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase. June's import volume was 17,698 tons, and next - month's is forecasted to be 22,000 tons, a 24.31% increase [8][9]. - Demand - last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,046 tons, a 0.99% week - on - week increase, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,323 tons, a 1.57% increase. Next - month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decrease [8][9]. - Cost - the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate is 67,813 yuan/ton, a 0.72% daily increase, with a production profit of 1,688 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 72,868 yuan/ton, a 0.48% daily increase, with a production loss of 4,992 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation [9][11]. - Market Outlook - lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 68,300 - 70,460 yuan/ton. The overall situation shows an intensifying supply surplus, with the main logic being that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [9][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: last week's production was 19,115 tons, up 1.60% week - on - week. June 2025 production was 78,090 tons, and next - month's forecast is 81,150 tons, up 3.92%. June's import volume was 17,698 tons, and next - month's forecast is 22,000 tons, up 24.31% [8][9]. - Demand: last week, lithium iron phosphate sample enterprise inventory was 95,046 tons, up 0.99% week - on - week, and ternary material sample enterprise inventory was 16,323 tons, up 1.57%. Next - month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decrease [8][9]. - Cost: the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. Externally purchased spodumene concentrate cost is 67,813 yuan/ton, up 0.72% daily, with a profit of 1,688 yuan/ton. Externally purchased lithium mica cost is 72,868 yuan/ton, up 0.48% daily, with a loss of 4,992 yuan/ton [9][11]. - Market Outlook: lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the 68,300 - 70,460 yuan/ton range [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Data: the previous day's futures closing prices showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 3.36% - 4.80%. The basis showed an increase, with the increase rate ranging from 128.31% - 218.75%. The number of registered warrants was 10,754, a 6.59% increase. Upstream prices such as lithium ore and lithium mica increased slightly, while some products like anhydrous iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [17]. - Supply - Side Data: weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate showed different trends. Monthly production and import volume are expected to increase. The production cost of spodumene and lithium mica increased slightly, and the production profit of spodumene increased significantly [20]. - Demand - Side Data: the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate lithium increased, while the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased [20]. - Inventory Data: the total inventory was 142,620 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Smelter inventory was 58,039 tons, a 0.95% decrease, and downstream inventory was 41,271 tons, a 1.24% increase [10][11]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: the price of lithium ore showed an upward trend, and the price of 6% spodumene increased by 1.08% [17]. - Production: the production of domestic spodumene mines and lithium mica showed an upward trend [27]. - Import: the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased, with a 17.25% decrease in June 2025 compared to the previous month [20]. - Self - Sufficiency Rate: the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends [27]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating Rate: the weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate showed different trends [33]. - Production: the monthly production of lithium carbonate increased, with a 8.34% increase in June 2025 compared to the previous month [20]. - Import: the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased, with a 16.31% decrease in June 2025 compared to the previous month [20]. - Recycling: the monthly recycling volume of waste lithium batteries showed different trends [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization: the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide showed different trends [40]. - Production: the monthly production of lithium hydroxide decreased, with a 4.09% decrease in June 2025 compared to the previous month [20]. - Export: the export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Spodumene: the cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate increased, and the production profit increased [45]. - Lithium Mica: the cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate increased, and the production profit decreased [45]. - Recycling: the cost and profit of recycling different types of waste lithium batteries showed different trends [48]. - Purification and Carbonization: the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate and the carbonization profit of lithium hydroxide showed different trends [48]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate: the weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate showed different trends [53]. - Lithium Hydroxide: the monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide showed different trends [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: the price of lithium batteries showed different trends [57]. - Production: the monthly production of power cells and energy - storage cells increased [57]. - Loading: the monthly loading volume of power batteries increased [57]. - Shipment: the monthly shipment volume of power cells increased [57]. - Export: the export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: the price of ternary precursors showed different trends [63]. - Cost and Profit: the cost and profit of ternary precursors showed different trends [63]. - Capacity Utilization: the capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends [63]. - Production: the monthly production of ternary precursors increased [63]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: the price of ternary materials showed different trends [69]. - Cost and Profit: the cost and profit of ternary materials showed different trends [69]. - Operating Rate: the weekly operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends [69]. - Production: the monthly production of ternary materials increased [69]. - Export and Import: the export and import volume of ternary materials showed different trends [71]. - Inventory: the weekly inventory of ternary materials showed different trends [71]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price: the price of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [73]. - Cost and Profit: the cost and profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [73]. - Capacity: the capacity of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed an upward trend [73]. - Operating Rate: the monthly operating rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [73]. - Production: the monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium increased [76]. - Export: the monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium decreased [76]. - Inventory: the weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium increased [78]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: the production of new energy vehicles showed an upward trend [81]. - Export: the export volume of new energy vehicles showed an upward trend [81]. - Sales: the sales volume of new energy vehicles showed an upward trend [81]. - Penetration Rate: the sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends [82]. - Retail - to - Wholesale Ratio: the retail - to - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles showed different trends [85]. - Inventory Index: the monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index showed different trends [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being the main issue due to capacity mismatch, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [8][11]. - The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,900 - 73,860 yuan/ton [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the high and stable supply from ore and salt lake sources and the weak willingness of the power battery sector to purchase [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,115 tons, a 1.60% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased week - on - week [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 1.09% day - on - day, with a profit of 833 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica increased by 1.45% day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 5,969 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Basis**: On July 22, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 3,780 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory was 142,620 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 of the market chart is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: In June 2025, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 81,150 physical tons next month, a 3.92% increase. The import volume is expected to decrease by 2.22% month - on - month. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has increased day - on - day but is lower than the historical average, and the degree of over - supply has intensified [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The closing prices of various contracts have increased to different extents, with the 09 contract increasing by 2.24% [13]. - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts has changed, with the 09 contract showing a 15.24% change [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products have changed. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 1.64%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.62% [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore** - Price: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time [20]. - Production: The production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines has shown different trends in different years [20]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table showing the relationship between demand, production, import, and export [20][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) has changed over time [26]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table [26][30]. - **Lithium Hydroxide** - Production: The production capacity, utilization rate, and output of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) have changed [33]. - Import and Export: There is a supply - demand balance table for lithium hydroxide, showing the relationship between demand, production, import, and export [35]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycling different types of lithium - containing materials for lithium carbonate production have changed over time [38][41]. - The import profit of lithium carbonate, the profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate have also changed [38][41]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including monthly and weekly inventory by source (downstream, smelter), has changed over time [46]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery** - Price: The price of lithium batteries has changed over time [50]. - Production: The monthly production of battery cells has changed, including power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries [50]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [50]. - **Ternary Precursor** - Price: The price of ternary precursors has changed over time [56]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table [56][59]. - **Ternary Material** - Price: The price of ternary materials has changed over time [62]. - Production: The production capacity, output, and export volume of ternary materials have changed [62][64]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium** - Price: The price of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over time [66]. - Production: The monthly production and export volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [66][69]. - **New Energy Vehicles** - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed over time [74]. - Penetration Rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has changed [75].

碳酸锂主力合约涨超5%，现报69760元/吨。 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: July 17, 2025 [1] - Report title: Lithium Carbonate: Warehouse Receipts Continue to Decline, Focus on Substantial Changes in Supply [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a neutral market sentiment [4] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - 2509 contract: The closing price was 66,420, down 240 from the previous day; the trading volume was 478,114, down 285,914; the open interest was 340,618, down 1,528 [2] - 2511 contract: The closing price was 65,840, down 260 from the previous day; the trading volume was 52,548, down 34,089; the open interest was 108,026, down 606 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The warehouse receipt volume was 10,655 hands, down 548 from the previous day [2] Basis - Spot - 2509: -1,470, up 290 from the previous day [2] - Spot - 2511: -890, up 310 from the previous day [2] - 2509 - 2511: 580, up 20 from the previous day [2] Raw Materials - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China): 685, up 4 from the previous day [2] - Lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%): 1,450, unchanged from the previous day [2] Lithium Salts - Battery - grade lithium carbonate: 64,950, up 50 from the previous day [2] - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate: 63,350, up 50 from the previous day [2] Other Products - Lithium iron phosphate (power type): 31,345, up 15 from the previous day [2] - Ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type): 106,300, up 30 from the previous day [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,779 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3] - In June 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased rapidly year - on - year. Domestic sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Production was 1.268 million vehicles, up 26.4% year - on - year; sales were 1.329 million vehicles, up 26.7% year - on - year; exports were 205,000 vehicles, down 3.6% month - on - month and up 140% year - on - year [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,640 - 64,920 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a 3% month - on - month increase and 80% higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 physical tons, a 3.92% increase [8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,110 tons, a 0.48% month - on - month increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,071 tons, a 1.38% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 62,979 yuan/ton, a 0.07% daily increase, with a loss of 104 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 68,253 yuan/ton, remaining the same daily, with a loss of 6,907 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, while the cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with a high profit margin and sufficient production motivation [8]. - **Market indicators**: The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 63,750 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is - 530 yuan/ton, indicating spot discount. The smelter inventory is 58,598 tons, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 40,765 tons, a 0.66% month - on - month increase; other inventories are 41,430 tons, a 6.34% month - on - month increase; the total inventory is 140,793 tons, a 1.77% month - on - month increase, all higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other related products showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of lithium ore decreased by 0.16% - 0.71%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.16% [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: Supply - side data shows changes in indicators such as weekly and monthly operating rates, processing costs, and production volumes. Demand - side data shows changes in indicators such as monthly production, export volume, and inventory of lithium iron phosphate and other products [17]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.15% to 674 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 0.50% to 516,747 tons. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows that the demand is high, and the balance is mostly negative [14][17][25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends. The monthly production, import, and export volumes also changed. The supply - demand balance shows that there are periods of surplus and shortage [28][33]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide all showed corresponding changes [36][39]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost - profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the cost - profit of lithium hydroxide processing, purification, and export, all showed different trends over time [42][45][48]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, showed different degrees of changes, and most of them were higher than the historical average [50]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, shipment volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries all showed corresponding changes. The production and shipment volume of power batteries and energy - storage batteries showed different trends [53][56]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors all showed corresponding changes [59][62]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, production, import, export, and inventory of ternary materials all showed corresponding changes [65][68]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium all showed corresponding changes [70][73]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles all showed corresponding changes [78][82].