Report Industry Investment Ratings - No clear industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - With the gradual alleviation of unfavorable factors in trade frictions, stock index may return to the upward channel. Under the circumstances of policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, the adjustment space of stock index is expected to be limited, and the strategy is to go long on stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. - The initial consensus between China and the US has improved market risk appetite, suppressing precious metal prices. However, factors such as the upcoming Fed rate cut and the ongoing US government shutdown still support the gold price, so the short - term gold price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The London lease rate has dropped significantly, and silver is in a volatile adjustment [1]. - The short - term prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate due to factors such as improved macro - sentiment, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and limited industrial - side drivers [1]. - The short - term prices of some agricultural products, energy, and chemical products are also affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations, showing different trends of fluctuation, rise, or fall [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Finance - Stock Index: With the alleviation of trade frictions, it may return to the upward channel. Adjustment space is limited under policy and liquidity support. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central bank's interest - rate risk reminder suppresses upward space [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: Market risk appetite improvement suppresses price, but Fed rate cut and government shutdown support it. Short - term price may fluctuate [1]. - Silver: London lease rate drop leads to volatile adjustment [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Global trade friction alleviation and approaching Fed meeting improve risk appetite, high price suppresses demand, short - term price may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: Macro - sentiment is good, but industrial - side drivers are limited, price may fluctuate [1]. - Alumina: Domestic production capacity is released, output and inventory increase, weak fundamentals pressure spot price, focus on cost support [1]. - Zinc: LME zinc 0 - 3 spread hits a record high, export expectation strengthens, short - term Shanghai zinc may maintain high level [1]. - Nickel: US inflation data and trade situation affect it. Under the RKAB policy, short - term price may be macro - dominated and fluctuate strongly, but high inventory still suppresses it [1]. - Stainless Steel: Macro - sentiment improves, steel mills' price - holding operations increase. Short - term futures may rebound in a volatile way, and short - term operation is recommended [1]. - Tin: Macro - sentiment improves and semiconductor sector rebounds. Short - term price may be affected by macro - sentiment and fluctuate strongly [1]. Industrial Metals - TV Silicon: Northwest capacity resumes production, southwest start - up is weaker than before, and the impact of dry season weakens [1]. - Polysilicon: October production is expected to increase unexpectedly, and there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: New energy vehicle peak season is coming, energy storage demand is strong, and overall demand is large although supply production increases [1]. - Steel Products: The industrial drive of rebar and hot - rolled coil is not clear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but commodity sentiment is good, and far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strong, direct demand is good, and macro - factors are beneficial [1]. - Glass: Supply surplus pressure is large, and price is under pressure [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, with large supply surplus pressure and pressured price [1]. - Coking Coal: It challenges the previous high, but there is uncertainty in breaking through, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Coke: The futures price is at a premium. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging for part of the spot [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is an expectation of B50 implementation in Indonesia next year, but high inventory in Malaysia in September and expected inventory accumulation in October put pressure on the price. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Soybean Oil: The upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting may bring new guidance. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, but there is a lack of new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian relations puts pressure on the price. Domestic rapeseed is in short supply, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: The contradiction between Xinjiang's capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit makes the new - year cotton demand uncertain. The downside space of the futures price is limited, but the new - crop basis and futures price may be under pressure [1]. - Sugar: Typhoons affect sugarcane harvest, and there is seasonal upward momentum in the short - term. However, good growth conditions in the south may limit the rebound space after new sugar is listed [1]. - Corn: North - south port inventories are low, short - term production area supply decreases, and the north - port price is firm. There is expected selling pressure in the future, but the downside space is limited [1]. - Soybean Meal: Under the expectation of Sino - US talks, the US market rises strongly. The domestic market has low valuation and is expected to rebound. Pay attention to policies and weather [1]. - Pulp: The trading logic is related to old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals decline, but the spot price is firm. It is not recommended to short after the futures price drops. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pigs: The spot price stabilizes, but the futures price is at a premium. Wait for changes in slaughter volume and weight. Short - term price may fluctuate [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ may maintain a small increase in production in November, geopolitical speculation cools down, and the US softens its attitude towards China's tariffs. Price may fluctuate [1]. - Fuel Oil: Similar to crude oil, price may fluctuate [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The probability of "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is falsified, and supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Shanghai Rubber: Raw material cost support is strong, mid - stream inventory decreases, and the commodity market atmosphere is positive. It is recommended to go long [1]. - BR Rubber: Crude oil weakens, cost support of butadiene drops, supply is loose, and the main price is continuously adjusted down [1]. - PTA: The news of "anti - involution" policy and device problems drive the price up [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Crude oil price drops, coal price rises, and the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol strengthens slightly [1]. - Short - Fiber: Follows the cost of PTA, and the basis strengthens with the rise of PTA price [1]. - Styrene: Asian benzene price is weak, device operation rate drops, and profit decreases [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment eases, domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - Other Chemicals: Some chemicals have different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand changes, and policy impacts [1]. Others - Container Shipping (European Line): The price has fallen to a low level, may rebound, and is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

新华财经北京10月29日电 Credit Mutuel Asset Management 策略师 Francois Rimeu 指出，受美国联邦政府 持续关门影响，关键经济数据发布受限，美联储在本周的货币政策会议上可能采取更为审慎的立场。 市场目前定价显示，10月降息25个基点的概率接近100%，但对12月及2026年政策路径的预期仍存在较 大分歧。 （文章来源：新华财经） 里莫进一步分析称，美国长期通胀预期保持良好锚定，即便劳动力市场出现疲软迹象，也不太可能对物 价构成上行压力。因此，本次会议的重点或将落在美联储对经济前景的附带评论上，而非利率调整本 身。 由于政府停摆导致部分官方数据（如非农就业、零售销售等）延迟或缺失，政策制定者可能更依赖高频 替代指标和企业调查数据。在此背景下，里莫认为，美联储或将避免释放过于明确的后续宽松信号，直 至数据环境改善。 里莫表示，尽管市场普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点，但决策层或将强调经济基本面仍具韧性。他预 计，美联储主席鲍威尔在会后声明及新闻发布会上将称"增长稳健，劳动力市场基本平衡，但面临温和 的下行风险"。 ...

Core Insights - Nearly 80% of respondents believe that AI-related stock valuations are over 20% too high, expressing concerns about potential government shutdowns leading to data shortages and high inflation, as well as questioning political influences on Federal Reserve decisions [1] - 92% of respondents expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with the possibility of further cuts in the next two meetings, although there are significant doubts among 38 respondents, including economists, strategists, and fund managers [1] - Following this week's expected rate cut, 84% of respondents anticipate another cut in December, and 54% expect a third cut in January next year, with a total forecast of 100 basis points in cuts over the next two years, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.2% by the end of 2026 [1]

当地时间10月28日，记者获悉，美国一名联邦法官进一步阻止了特朗普政府在近一个月的政府部分"停 摆"期间实施裁员数千名联邦雇员的计划。 在旧金山举行的听证会上，美国地区法官苏珊·伊尔斯顿延长了此前的一项临时裁决，该裁决禁止近40 个联邦机构在代表联邦雇员的工会提起的法律诉讼结果出来之前实施裁员。 由于两党在医保相关福利支出等方面存在分歧，美国国会参议院未能在9月30日上一财年结束前通过新 的临时拨款法案，维持政府正常运转的资金耗尽。10月1日起，美国联邦政府时隔近七年再度"停摆"。 本月10日，超过4000名联邦雇员收到解雇通知。特朗普日前接受媒体采访时说，因为政府"停摆"，会有 很多联邦雇员丢掉工作，裁员将集中在"趋向民主党的领域"。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 据悉，在联邦机构于10日开始发布旨在缩减联邦政府规模的裁员通知后，美国地区法官苏珊·伊尔斯顿 发布了这项紧急命令。伊尔斯顿表示，政府的行动"缺乏深思熟虑"。 此前在10月15日，美国旧金山一名联邦法官下令，特朗普政府目前必须停止在政府"停摆"期间裁员。 ...

据悉，多名参议院民主党人表示，除非总统特朗普亲自参与谈判，否则政府停摆难以结束。 由于美国共和、民主两党在医保相关福利支出等核心议题上分歧巨大，国会参议院未能在9月30日上一 财年结束前通过新的临时拨款法案，导致联邦政府维持正常运转的资金耗尽，于10月1日起"停摆"。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 当地时间10月28日，总台记者获悉，美国国会参议院将第13次就众议院通过的"干净版"政府拨款法案进 行表决，该法案旨在以当前资金水平临时恢复政府运作。 此前该程序性动议已连续12次在参议院遭否决，因需至少60票（包括部分民主党议员支持）方可通过。 预计第13次表决结果仍将失败。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has been in a "shutdown" for four weeks, leading to significant disruptions in various sectors [1] - The shortage of air traffic controllers has worsened due to the shutdown, impacting flight operations across the country [1] - On the 27th, nearly 7,000 flights were delayed nationwide, highlighting the operational challenges faced by the aviation industry [1] - Ongoing political stalemate between the Republican and Democratic parties continues to hinder the resolution of the shutdown, with both sides engaging in mutual blame [1]

（央视财经《天下财经》）当地时间27日，美国联邦政府"停摆"进入第27天，这场史上第二长的"停 摆"正持续冲击美国社会的方方面面，在华盛顿，由于无法领到工资，不少联邦雇员前往慈善组织排队 领取救济食品。 27日在华盛顿街头，慈善组织"世界中央厨房"向因政府停摆而被迫无薪休假的联邦雇员分发食物，数十 名联邦雇员前来排队领取蔬菜、水果、肉类等救济食品和饮用水，部分人坦言现在的生活十分艰难。 美国国防部雇员：（政府"停摆"的影响）变得真实了。我没有领到薪水，所以只能省着点花钱。但我们 这样撑不了很久，因为你有孩子要上幼儿园，有贷款需要还，要知道银行不会等着你（有了钱再还）。 美国农业部此前宣布暂停其"补充营养援助计划"，也就是俗称的食品券项目，11月1日将停止发放食品 救济，目前这一项目覆盖约4200万人，约占美国总人口八分之一，其中多数为低收入群体和残障人士。 食品券项目暂停后，他们的生活将难以为继。 美国民众 基纳德：一旦没了这项救济，我和女儿如果想获得健康食品就会成问题，而且我还必须在食 品、医保和住房之间艰难取舍。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：令文芳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to a combination of optimistic trade sentiments and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with recent data indicating a significant drop from record highs [1][3][4]. Market Analysis - As of October 27, gold is priced at $4,078.36 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.56% from previous levels, with a year-to-date increase of 55% largely driven by trade tensions [1]. - The recent drop in gold prices, over 6% from last week's record high of $4,381.21, indicates market sensitivity to trade negotiations and potential tariff changes [1][4]. - The upcoming deadline for additional tariffs on Chinese imports adds uncertainty, which could reignite gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 3.0%, slightly below expectations, reinforcing market speculation for a near-certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The likelihood of a rate cut to a range of 3.75%-4.00% is nearly 100%, with high probabilities for further cuts in December and January [3]. Technical Analysis - Recent price movements show gold testing support levels around $4,040, with potential resistance at $4,140-$4,165 [5][6]. - The current technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, with the price below key moving averages, indicating a need for careful monitoring of support levels [5][6]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to watch key support levels at $4,040 and $4,000, with potential strategies to short if these levels are breached [8]. - The market remains volatile, and traders should be prepared to adjust strategies based on real-time developments and price movements [8].

美国农业部称，资金已经枯竭。 目前，11月1日将不会发放任何福利。 据悉，美国联邦政府的"补充营养援助计划"覆盖约4200万人， 主要受益人群为低收入群体， 残疾人和老人等 ，这些人群可使用政府补贴的食品券在指定商店购买食物。 来源丨央视新闻 编辑丨陈思颖 见习编辑张嘉钰 2架美军机在南海相继坠毁 阿里巴巴前CEO张勇，5354万港元买下香港半山豪宅 SFC 21君荐读 2 智能 悦 读 · 权 威 . ry S 扫码点击下载 当地时间10月25日，据央视新闻援引美国农业部网站通知称， 美国联邦政府的"补充营养援助 计划"将于11月1日停止。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Commodities and stock index futures: Overall neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The release of the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan has boosted market sentiment, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to remain at around 5% [3] - The Fed's easing pace may be relatively smooth, but the US government shutdown event needs continued attention [4] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term, and focus on possible breakthrough directions in non-ferrous metals, energy, etc. in the second half of inflation [5] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The release of the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan has boosted market sentiment, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to remain at around 5% [3] - The Fed's easing pace may be relatively smooth, with US economic data showing resilience. However, the US government shutdown event has entered its 24th day, and the market's pricing of its severity is relatively insufficient [4] Commodity Analysis - Overall, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations; the non-ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations; the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term; the "anti-involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention; agricultural products are driven by short-term tariff and inflation expectations; precious metals may enter a consolidation stage [5] Strategy - Commodities and stock index futures: Overall neutral [6] Key News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan and emphasized promoting various undertakings [7] - The US will impose tariffs on trucks and buses, and the Trump administration has "adjusted" its strategy [7] - Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov commented on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Russia-US leaders' meeting [7] - Japan's Prime Minister is preparing an economic stimulus package [7] - China and the US will hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [7] - The EU has included Chinese enterprises in its sanctions list against Russia, and China has expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition [7] - The US government shutdown continues, and the US has announced sanctions on two major Russian oil enterprises [7]