Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a pullback last week, hitting a two-week low of $3,886 on October 28, but rebounded significantly on October 30, despite a slight decline on October 31, closing at $4,003 per ounce. October saw a cumulative increase of 3.7%, marking the third consecutive month of gains [1] - Hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials on October 31 reduced the probability of a rate cut in December, leading to a three-month high in the US dollar index, which put pressure on gold prices. However, market sentiment remains cautious due to the impending longest government shutdown in US history and ongoing international geopolitical tensions, providing some support for gold [1] - The North American region officially transitioned to standard time on November 2, affecting trading hours for major financial instruments, including gold and silver, which will now open at 7:00 AM Beijing time [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a tax policy on gold, which may have a short-term negative impact on gold prices but could provide long-term support [2] - The ongoing conflict in Israel has resulted in over 250 deaths and hundreds of injuries, complicating the ceasefire situation between Israel and Palestine [2] - Technical indicators show that gold prices are in an overbought state, suggesting potential for a significant pullback. Historical data indicates that similar overbought conditions often lead to deep corrections, as seen in November 2024 with a maximum monthly fluctuation of $225 [2] - The current fundamental landscape is mixed, with both bullish and bearish factors at play, contributing to the expectation of significant volatility in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Aggressive trading strategies suggest entering short positions in the $4,005-$4,010 range with a stop loss at $4,015, targeting a reduction to $3,980-$3,970 [3] - Conservative strategies recommend waiting for a rebound to test the $4,030-$4,040 range before entering short positions, with a stop loss at $4,050 and targeting a reduction near $4,000 [3]

| | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-11-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 922.58 | 0.66 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 11455 | 14 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 151373 | -5518 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 261467 | -17774 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 104455 | -1274 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 93562 | 2032 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 87816 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 658851 | -6693 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 917.5 | 0.9 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 11350 | -120 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -5.08 | 0.24 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/ ...

11 月 3 日亚市尾盘，现货黄金呈现震荡回升态势，当前价格徘徊在 4016 美元 / 盎司左右，较日内盘中低点反弹幅度接近 54 美 元，避险资金的回流为金价提供了有力支撑。 不过，随着避险情绪升温，金价快速收复失地并再度向 4000 美元 / 盎司关口发起冲击。当前投资者普遍关注美国政府停摆的潜 在影响，若此次停摆持续时间延长，可能对美国经济运行产生连锁反应，进一步推动避险资金向黄金市场流动。 后续市场焦点将集中于美国经济数据表现。北京时间 11 月 3 日 23:00，美国 10 月 ISM 制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）将正式公 布，市场普遍预期该数值为 49.1。业内分析认为，这一数据的表现将直接影响美元短期走势，进而作用于黄金价格：若数据优 于预期，可能助力美元走强，对金价形成压制；若数据不及预期，美元或面临调整压力，为金价反弹提供更多动能。 值得注意的是，在美联储上周完成谨慎降息操作后，市场对后续货币政策走向的预期持续调整。芝加哥商品交易所集团的 "美联 储观察工具" 显示，当前市场预期美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 69%，较一周前 91.7% 的概率出现明显回落，这一预期 变化也 ...

本周周一，黄金早盘低开走弱，美元指数高开走强，受上周五美联储多名官员反对12月降息，以及黄金 税收成本上升加剧投机资金的短期抛压，再加上美国民主党参议员敦促特朗普直接参与结束政府关门的 谈判等等，减弱了金价看涨需求； 本周将迎来重磅数据密集周，多国制造业与服务业PMI集中亮相、央行利率决议落地、大小非农就业数 据重磅登场，叠加中美欧等核心经济体贸易帐、消费信心指数等数据，再加上美联储官员密集发声。金 价的波动风险将会加大。 同时，预计新换任的美联储主席，下一任美联储主席的第二轮面试即将开始，相关人选可能会在圣诞节 前确定。市场预期特朗普将选择更加鸽派的人员。也将会增强后市的更加宽松的环境，也将利好金价。 所以即便是12月11日凌晨美联储不降息，也难以结束次轮降息周期，难以对金价造成持续打压；如进一 步降息，将会大大增强后续看涨前景。 但个人认为都只是短期压力，长期未来一年左右，金价仍具看涨前景和很大空间，一方面，虽然多名美 联储官员反对12月降息，但概率上，12月降息仍然较高，并且10月的政府停摆，势必将影响经济和就业 数据，也将推升降息预期；也将令11月金价走势处于经济数据疲软的利好助力之中，故此，本周利空 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term long position [1] - Silver: Long - term long position [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong [1] - Nickel: Relatively weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment [1] Core Views - For gold, the long - term support logic remains unchanged due to geopolitical order reshaping and central bank purchases, and short - term entry opportunities exist. For silver, long - term global policy stimulates demand with a continuous supply - demand gap. Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend due to copper concentrate shortages and green copper demand. Zinc has limited up - and - down space in the short - term and a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long - term. Lead, tin, and nickel prices are under pressure in the short - term. Aluminum prices are relatively strong in the short - term, while lithium carbonate prices are in a high - level adjustment phase [1]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: After risk events landed, the market sentiment was basically released, and gold and silver fluctuated narrowly. Short - term attention should be paid to US data and government shutdown [3]. - **Underlying Logic**: The new gold tax policy affects different usage and user groups. The US government shutdown is in a stalemate, which affects Fed policies and market expectations. In the long - term, gold benefits from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Both gold and silver have stopped falling in the short - term. Medium - and short - term entry can be considered, with strong support at 910 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper fluctuated at high levels [7]. - **Industry Logic**: Copper concentrate shortages continue as major mining companies lower production expectations. There is an expected decline in domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter. The domestic smelting industry calls for anti - involution and possible production cuts. Downstream demand shows a pattern of high - price aversion and low - price purchasing [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try long positions on dips near the 84500 - 85500 range. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging can use options for protection, and strict risk control is required. The short - term focus ranges are [84500, 88500] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [10500, 11200] dollars/ton for London copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc fluctuated narrowly [10]. - **Industry Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and the processing fee has dropped due to smelter winter stockpiling. Refined zinc enterprise profits are in a small - scale loss. Zinc ingot production is expected to increase, and consumption is entering the off - season. The overseas LME zinc inventory soft - squeeze risk has eased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc lacks a clear one - sided driving force in the short - term, with limited up - and - down space. In the long - term, it is a short - side allocation in the sector. The focus ranges are [22200, 22800] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2980, 3080] dollars/ton for London zinc [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are cautiously optimistic, while alumina shows a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest rate cuts continue. Domestic production capacity is high, and terminal consumption is transitioning from peak season to off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are affected by the rainy season, and the domestic industry is facing profit contraction and possible production cuts [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise operating rates. The main operating range is [21000 - 21800] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel prices are falling back [17]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts continue. Overseas nickel production policies are adjusted, and domestic and overseas nickel inventories are accumulating. The stainless steel market shows a supply - and - demand weak situation, and terminal demand is weakening [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed low, with a significant reduction in positions and an enlarged decline at the end of the session [20]. - **Industry Logic**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, with continuous inventory reduction for 11 weeks and an expanding reduction range. Although supply is still growing, there are production declines in some regions. Terminal demand is strong, but the rumored resumption of production has a negative impact on the market [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see until the market stabilizes in the range of [80000 - 82000] [22].

| 2日晚间，比特币突然震荡加剧，盘中一度跌破110000美元。截至发稿，比特币微涨，不过，以太坊等加密货币纷纷小跌，狗狗币跌1%。 | | --- | | | Ranking | Symbol | Price | Price (24h%) | Funding Rate | Volume (24h) | Volume (24h9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4 | 1 | B BTC | $110200 | +0.08% | 0.0066% | $63.31B | +23.90% | | 47 | 2 | ETH | $3873.46 | -0.02% | 0.0069% | $48.05B | +29.97% | | 公 | 3 | SOL | $186.27 | +0.02% | 0.0047% | $12.07B | +22.77% | | 4 | 4 | XRP | $2.5162 | +0.62% | 0.0034% | $4.20B | +33.78% | | 4 | 5 | НУРЕ | $42.247 | -2.7 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 32nd day, exacerbating crises in the livelihood sector, particularly affecting low-income individuals due to halted relief programs and rising healthcare costs [2] - The delay in payments for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has left millions without food assistance, leading to increased queues at food distribution points across the country [3][4] - The shutdown has also impacted the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), which serves 5.9 million households, leaving many low-income families facing a cold winter without heating [10][12] Group 1: Impact on Low-Income Families - The interruption of SNAP has resulted in a significant increase in the number of people seeking food assistance, with reports of queues being three to four times longer than usual in areas like the Bronx and Atlanta [4][5] - Many families, already struggling with inflation, are further burdened by the inability to receive paychecks due to the shutdown, particularly affecting federal employees and their families [5][7] - The urgency for Congress to resolve the shutdown is growing, as rising healthcare costs are leading to public discontent, prompting warnings from the Democratic Party about the need for action [9] Group 2: Energy Assistance Challenges - The LIHEAP, which is crucial for helping low-income families pay for heating and utility costs, is facing delays in funding due to the government shutdown, with some states already announcing postponements [12][14] - The potential delay in energy assistance could extend into January, creating uncertainty about how states will manage their plans and distribute funds once available [14] - The executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors' Association highlighted that the delays in energy assistance and other critical benefits could push many families living on the edge of poverty into deeper hardship [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and the psychological significance of the $4000 price level for gold, highlighting the dynamics between buyers and market sentiment [1][5][13]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices initially surged to historical highs but then experienced a sudden decline in late October, prompting buyers to enter the market as prices dropped to new lows [1][3]. - The international gold price briefly rebounded to around $4009 per ounce, with the $4000 mark becoming a critical psychological barrier that could trigger stop-loss orders or panic selling if breached [3][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - On October 29, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second cut since September and the fifth since September 2024 [5][10]. - The Fed's decision to cut rates was influenced by slowing economic growth and high inflation, aiming to stabilize the economy amid incomplete data due to a potential government shutdown [5][10]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The interest rate cut typically reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to increased buying interest, particularly among retail investors and physical buyers [6][11]. - Despite the buying momentum, there are concerns about a potential short-term correction, with analysts suggesting support levels at $3850 and even $3690, creating a tense market atmosphere [6][11]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Dynamics - Many ordinary buyers view the current market as an opportunity to purchase gold and jewelry without chasing extreme highs, contributing to market stabilization [8][11]. - The weakening dollar and expectations of further rate cuts have made gold more attractive, resulting in increased trading activity [8][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - If gold prices can hold above the $4000 level, market sentiment may turn optimistic, encouraging further investments in physical gold or futures [11][13]. - Conversely, if prices fall below this threshold, concentrated stop-loss orders could trigger significant selling, leading to increased volatility and potential price corrections [11][13].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut this year [2][4] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, which has created uncertainty in the market [2][17] - The Fed announced the end of its balance sheet reduction starting December 1, 2023, halting the monthly reduction of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities [4][7] Summary by Sections Rate Cut and Market Reaction - The recent rate cut aligns with market expectations, but Powell's cautious tone has led to a reassessment of future rate cut probabilities, dropping from over 90% to below 70% for a December cut [17][20] - The stock market experienced volatility following Powell's statements, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries increased [18] Internal Disagreements within the Fed - There was notable dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee, with 10 out of 12 members supporting the 25 basis point cut, while two members advocated for either a larger cut or maintaining the current rate [8][10] - The differing opinions reflect concerns about economic slowdown versus inflation risks, indicating a challenging balancing act for the Fed [10][24] Data Challenges and Economic Indicators - The government shutdown has created a "data vacuum," hindering the Fed's ability to make informed decisions based on official economic data [12][15] - Powell emphasized that private sector data cannot replace government statistics, which are crucial for understanding the economy [12][14] - The Fed's Beige Book indicated widespread low demand for labor across various regions and sectors, further complicating policy decisions [14][23] Future Outlook and Uncertainties - Powell's cautious approach is influenced by the lack of reliable data and internal disagreements, making the Fed's future rate path more uncertain than ever [26][29] - The potential for personnel changes within the Fed raises questions about future policy directions, adding another layer of uncertainty [24][26] - The end of balance sheet reduction may provide some liquidity relief, but the increasing issuance of U.S. debt could counteract this effect [26][29]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, closing at approximately $4024.18 per ounce after a sharp recovery from an initial drop to $3915, marking a daily increase of about 2.4%, the largest since the recent peak on October 20 [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.0% has contributed to the renewed interest in gold, as low interest rates and economic uncertainty create a favorable environment for non-yielding assets [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.38% to 99.51, with a peak of 99.72, the highest since August 1, yet this strength did not suppress safe-haven buying in gold, indicating heightened market sensitivity to uncertainty [1] Trade Developments - President Trump announced a reduction of tariffs on China from 57% to 47% in exchange for increased purchases of U.S. soybeans and enhanced cooperation on rare earth exports, which briefly boosted the stock market before a quick retreat [2] - The overall sentiment remains cautious as the trade agreement appears to be more of a temporary truce rather than a comprehensive resolution, contributing to mixed market reactions [2] Market Sentiment - The combination of the Fed's rate cut, uncertainty surrounding the December meeting, and the lack of substantial progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations has created a complex environment that favors gold while pressuring stock markets [2] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.99%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 1.57%, reflecting the negative impact of these factors on equity markets [1] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are facing potential short-term pullback risks, with the $3900 level being a critical support point that traders should monitor [4] - The price action has shown a struggle to maintain levels above $4030, indicating a possible consolidation phase around $4010, with traders advised to watch for resistance near $4020/4045 and support at $3985/3920 [4]