【导读】加拿大降息25个基点 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚，降息之夜，加拿大也降息了，一起关注一下。 9月17日晚间，鉴于美国关税对经济和劳动力市场造成冲击，加拿大央行宣布降息，但对未来宽松路径保持缄默。降息幅度为25个基点， 利率降 至2.5%，这是自3月份以来首次下调政策利率，符合市场和大多数经济学家的预期。 | 政策利率 | 总体CPI通胀 | CPI调整 | 3.0% | 2025年8月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2.5% | 1.9% | | | | | 2025年9月17日 | 2025年8月 | CPI中位数 | 3.1% | 2025年8月 | 麦克勒姆表示："关税对多个关键行业产生了深远影响，包括汽车、钢铁和铝业。" 加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆在预先准备的讲话中表示："在经济走弱、通胀上行风险减小的情况下，委员会认为下调政策利率更有利于 在未来更好地平衡风险。"他称此次降息"存在明确共识"。 官员指出，经济压力不断上升，其中包括国内劳动力市场进一步转弱。他们还表示，马克·卡尼总理取消部分美国产品进口的报复性关税， 消除了一个潜在的通胀来源 ...

根据中国海关发布的数据显示，2025年前8个月，中日双边贸易总额高达2064亿美元，其中中国自日进口1034亿美元，对日出口1030亿美元。中国现为日本 第五大贸易伙伴、第五大进口来源国及第四大出口市场，两国经济已形成深度绑定格局。 美国近期在对外经贸策略上展现出典型的"两面派"作风。 一方面，派出财政部长贝森特率团赴西班牙与中国就经贸问题展开谈判；另一方面，却在G7线上会议上鼓动盟友对购买俄罗斯石油的中国、印度征收100% 惩罚性关税。 然而，这种试图孤立中印的"小算盘"并未得到广泛响应，至今未有任何盟友听命于美国，均选择沉默应对，其中日本更以罕见强硬姿态直接回绝。 日本财务大臣加藤胜信于9月16日明确表态，称"将关税提高至50%以上对日本而言不可行，是难以做到的"，这番直指美国施压的回应引发关注。 深究日本此次"硬气"背后的逻辑，实则是基于现实经济利益的理性抉择。作为外贸依赖型经济体，日本与各主要贸易伙伴维持良好关系是其经济命脉所在。 要求盟友冲锋在前，自身却置身事外，这种"小弟当炮灰"的策略彻底暴露了美国的自私本质。日本政客虽对华态度复杂，但在经济利益面前选择"装傻"而 非"犯傻"——毕竟牺牲本国企业利 ...

Group 1 - Canada's recent trade barriers against Chinese goods have not resulted in the expected support from allies, instead plunging the country into an unprecedented economic storm [2] - The Canadian government's sudden shift in trade policy is driven by external political pressures rather than economic considerations, risking decades of established trade cooperation [2][5] - The imposition of a 25% additional tariff on Chinese steel and a 100% tariff on electric vehicles has not yielded any substantial trade concessions from other countries [2][5] Group 2 - China's countermeasures, particularly in the agricultural sector, have had immediate effects, such as a 100% tariff on Canadian canola seeds, leading to skyrocketing import costs and nearly freezing access to the Chinese market [3][4] - Canada previously relied on China as its largest buyer of canola seeds, accounting for two-thirds of its total exports, but trade volumes have drastically declined due to these retaliatory measures [4][6] - The agricultural sector is facing severe repercussions, with canola futures dropping over 6% in a single day and farmers' income expectations decreasing by nearly 20% [4][5] Group 3 - The trade policies have triggered a chain reaction affecting other key industries in Canada, revealing vulnerabilities in its supply chains [5] - The imposition of tariffs has led to production line shutdowns in the chemical sector, particularly affecting the supply of halogenated butyl rubber, a core material for tire manufacturing [5] - Domestic dissatisfaction with the government's trade policies has led to widespread protests from farmers and pressure from provincial leaders to negotiate with China [5][8] Group 4 - Canada has struggled to find alternative markets, with competitors like Russia and Ethiopia offering lower prices, further complicating its trade situation [10] - The high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which hold less than 5% market share in Canada, appear to be more of a political gesture than a strategic economic move [10] - The Canadian government is at a crossroads, facing the choice between continuing its hardline stance or seeking dialogue to resolve trade disputes, which will significantly impact its economic future [15]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean farmers are facing unprecedented despair due to the complete halt of orders from China, which has historically been their largest buyer, leading to a significant decline in soybean prices and threatening their livelihoods [1][3][5]. Group 1: Impact of Trade War - The trade war initiated by the U.S. government has resulted in high tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting China to impose reciprocal tariffs on U.S. soybeans, drastically reducing the price competitiveness of U.S. soybeans in the Chinese market [1][3]. - As a consequence of the tariffs, Chinese buyers have shifted their focus to other soybean suppliers, particularly Brazil and Argentina, which have become the biggest beneficiaries of this shift due to their lower prices and stable supply [3][5]. Group 2: Current Market Situation - The U.S. Soybean Association has reported a complete lack of new orders from China during a critical purchasing period, indicating a severe crisis for U.S. agriculture [3][5]. - U.S. soybean prices have plummeted by 40% compared to three years ago, while production costs continue to rise, putting immense financial pressure on farmers [3][5]. Group 3: Government Response and Future Outlook - The U.S. government, recognizing the severity of the situation, has made unrealistic demands for China to increase soybean orders significantly, but these requests have not resonated with the Chinese market [5][7]. - The absence of Chinese orders could result in a loss of 14 to 16 million tons of soybean orders for the U.S., which is more than half of its soybean exports to China [5][7]. - The event has highlighted the dangers of trade protectionism, emphasizing the need for the U.S. government to take effective measures to improve trade relations with China to avoid further economic damage to U.S. farmers [7].

大家好啊，我是老陈，最近有个消息在国际商业圈炸开了锅。美国有位参议员提出要对使用海外外包服务的美国企业征收25%的税款，这下可把印度的IT 行业给吓坏了。这就像是在一个热闹的集市上，突然有人说要对所有外地商贩收重税一样，整个市场都要震三震。 事情要从美国参议员伯尼·莫雷诺说起。这位老兄提出了一个叫《雇佣法案》的提案，目标很明确： 让那些"优先雇佣外国员工而非美国本土员工"的企业 多掏钱 。 这个提案的杀伤力有多大呢？我来给大家算笔账。印度的IT行业规模有多大？2830亿美元！这个数字占到了印度整个国内生产总值的7%以上。苹果、美 国运通、思科、花旗集团这些我们耳熟能详的大公司，都是印度IT服务的重要客户。 有人可能会问：不就是25%的税吗？有那么严重吗？ 我告诉你们，这事儿真的很严重。专家预测，加上联邦税、州税和地方税，外包支出的税率可能高达60%！ 原本一个美国公司花100万美元外包给印度， 现在可能要额外交60万的税。这谁受得了？ 更要命的是，印度IT行业本来就不太好过。受通胀压力和关税不确定性影响，美国客户已经开始推迟非必要的技术支出了。这个时候再来这么一刀，简直 是雪上加霜。 美国这么做的理由其实也不 ...

Group 1 - Mexico's President submitted a legislative proposal to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imports from countries without a free trade agreement with Mexico, primarily targeting China [1][2] - The proposed tariffs will affect approximately 1,400 product categories, including automobiles, toys, steel, textiles, and plastic products [2] - Mexico has become China's largest automotive export market, with 2025 figures showing 4.18 million vehicles exported, and Mexico's automotive industry is expected to be significantly impacted by the new tariffs [3] Group 2 - The new tariffs are seen as a strategy to strengthen domestic production and increase fiscal revenue while also appeasing the U.S. [4] - The Mexican government aims to maintain good relations with China despite the tariff proposal, emphasizing that the measures are not specifically targeting any country [5] - The automotive sector in Mexico may face rising vehicle prices and reduced consumer choices due to the new tariffs, potentially affecting local dealerships and employment [3][4] Group 3 - The relationship between Mexico and the U.S. remains complex, with Mexico heavily reliant on the U.S. market while also seeking to diversify its trade partnerships [6][7] - The U.S. has previously threatened to impose significant tariffs on Mexican imports, which adds pressure on Mexico's trade negotiations [6][7] - Mexico is preparing for potential outcomes regarding the USMCA agreement, indicating a long-term strategy in trade relations [7]

Group 1 - Mexico's President submitted a legislative proposal to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imports from countries without a free trade agreement with Mexico, primarily targeting China [1][3] - The proposal includes approximately 1,400 product categories such as automobiles, toys, steel, textiles, and plastic products, with tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% [3] - Mexico has become China's largest automobile export market, surpassing Russia, with 3.22 million vehicles exported to Mexico in the first seven months of 2025 [4] Group 2 - The new tariffs could significantly impact the import of Chinese electric vehicles, with potential increases from 0% to 15% in 2024 and possibly up to 50% thereafter [3][4] - The Mexican automotive industry, which has been rapidly growing, may face challenges due to increased costs and reduced consumer choices, potentially affecting local dealerships and employment [4] - Mexico's economic strategy appears to aim at increasing domestic production and generating fiscal revenue while also attempting to maintain good relations with China [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is positioned as a significant driver for regional economic integration amidst global challenges such as unilateralism and trade protectionism, aiming to evolve from the "largest free trade area" to a "high-level free trade area" [5][6][9]. Group 1: RCEP's Role and Impact - Since its implementation, RCEP has significantly boosted trade within the region, particularly benefiting emerging markets like Laos, Cambodia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia [3]. - The region has become a stronghold for global foreign direct investment (FDI), with ASEAN attracting 49.2% of global FDI inflows in 2023 [3]. - Trade in intermediate goods has shown a notable increase, rising from 65% of total trade in 2021 to 68.3% in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Challenges and Areas for Improvement - RCEP faces challenges such as low utilization rates of its rules and slow progress in fulfilling commitments in key areas like services and investment [8]. - The absence of a fully established RCEP secretariat has hindered timely decision-making on critical issues like upgrading terms and expanding membership [8]. - There is a lack of effective platforms for policy coordination and communication among member countries [8]. Group 3: Future Directions for RCEP - To transition to a high-level free trade area, RCEP should expand its scope beyond economic matters to include governance and investment [9]. - Strong leadership is essential for establishing relevant rules and plans, addressing issues like regulatory policies and industry standards [9][10]. - Regular summits for RCEP leaders are necessary to ensure focused attention on trade, investment, and supply chain issues [12]. - Enhancing organizational capabilities and establishing a mechanism for progress assessment will be crucial for RCEP's effectiveness [12][13].

2025 年，一则来自光明网的报道搅动全球贸易格局 —— 美国总统特朗普于 7 日突然抛出贸易领域的 "重磅炸弹"：宣布从 8 月 1 日起，对日本、韩国等 14 个国家的进口商品分别征收 25% 至 40% 的高额 关税。这位美国前总统还在自己创办的 "真实社交" 平台上，如同分发宴会邀请函般，公开了写给 14 国 领导人的信函。信中罗列的征税理由看似冠冕堂皇，诸如 "平衡贸易逆差""保护本土产业"，实则藏着 单边主义的锋利獠牙。 在这场突如其来的关税风暴中，日本与韩国的反应堪称 "镜像对照"，截然不同的态度背后，是两国对 自身利益的精准权衡。特朗普给这两个长期盟友开出的税率清单里，韩国被维持 25% 的 "老朋友价"， 日本却多了 1% 的 "特别待遇"，看似微小的数字差异，在东京政坛激起轩然大波。日本首相石破茂在参 院预算委员会上罕见拍案而起，语气强硬地表示："美国这种单方面提税的做法，我们深表遗憾，日本 绝不会在贸易主权问题上屈膝让步。" 反观首尔，其反应则像被暴雨打蔫的花朵，满是妥协与退让。韩国新政府发言人在记者会上，用 "将推 进国内改革以减少对美贸易顺差" 的温和表态，把 "妥协" 二字写得明明 ...

卢拉在美国《纽约时报》撰文：巴西民主与主权不容谈判 中新网9月15日电 当地时间9月14日，美国《纽约时报》发布了巴西总统卢拉发表的署名文章。卢拉表 示，巴西愿意与美国就任何能够互利互惠的议题进行谈判，但巴西的民主和主权不在谈判范围之内。 卢拉表示，"当美国背弃与巴西延续了200多年的关系时，所有人都会受损。两国政府在拥有共同目标的 领域开展合作，不应被任何意识形态差异阻碍。" 最后，卢拉指出，他对巴西和美国关系的看法是：两国能够相互尊重，并为两国人民的福祉进行合作。 资料图：巴西总统卢拉。 针对美国特朗普政府对巴西商品加征50%关税，卢拉表示，美国推动就业回流和再工业化无可厚非，但 对其他国家采取单边行动是"错误的药方"。 他批评道，美国对巴西加征关税是"被误导"和"不合逻辑"的。卢拉指出，过去15年，美国与巴西的双边 贸易累计顺差达4100亿美元，近75%的美国产品进入巴西时已免关税。 文章指出，美方举措背后缺乏经济依据，这表明其有政治动机。 卢拉援引美国高官的观点称，美政府正在利用关税和《马格尼茨基法案》为巴西前总统博索纳罗寻求豁 免。巴西联邦最高法院11日宣布，博索纳罗策划政变罪名成立，获刑27年零3 ...