Core Viewpoint - Mexico plans to impose tariffs ranging from 5% to 50% on certain products from several Asian countries, including China, starting January 1, 2026, which will impact various industries such as automotive, electronics, and appliances [3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Exports - The proposed tariffs will significantly affect the export of white goods from China to Mexico, with a projected decrease in exports of 10.6% in the first ten months of 2025, amounting to $2.919 billion [5]. - Specific categories such as air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators are expected to see substantial declines in export value, with decreases of 30%, 49.86%, and 10.7% respectively [5]. - Smaller appliances like fans and microwaves also experienced declines, with export values dropping by 14.81% and 9.29% respectively [5]. Group 2: Corporate Responses and Adjustments - Companies are likely to adjust their overseas production strategies in response to the tariffs, with some planning to shift orders to overseas factories [3][4]. - Major Chinese appliance manufacturers like Hisense and TCL have already established production facilities in Mexico, which may help them mitigate the impact of the tariffs by increasing local production capacity [6]. - The tariffs may compel these companies to enhance their product lines and expand their market share in both Mexico and North America [6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Projections - The Mexican market for air conditioners is expected to shrink in 2026 due to high inventory levels, which may limit the immediate impact of the tariffs on air conditioner exports [4]. - The overall trend indicates that Chinese appliance exports to Mexico are likely to continue facing challenges, with a projected decline of 9% in the first seven months of 2025 due to the tariffs [5].

产业在线高级分析师王娟向第一财经记者分析说，墨西哥对中国家电产品加征15%-30%的关税，长期可能将倒逼企业调整海外生产布局或重构供应链结构。 在空调出口方面，产业在线高级分析师龙飞认为，墨西哥加征关税，对空调出口本身有一定影响，但影响较小。主要原因在于当地空调库存偏大，大部分企 业在2025年已经囤积了大批库存。预计2026年当地市场会有一定萎缩，处于持续消化库存的阶段。 "墨西哥在今年中国洗衣机出口量占比4.3%，出口产品多为非全自动洗衣机，利润较低，关税上升可能造成订单暂停或转至海外生产。"产业在线高级分析师 倪子鉴说。 此次墨西哥关税调整还涉及电风扇、咖啡机、微波炉等中小型家电。一位小家电出口企业的相关负责人告诉第一财经记者，墨西哥出口占比不多，明年部分 关税增加的问题将可以通过海外工厂接单出货的方式来解决。 "（墨西哥关税调整）对白电有影响，对黑电影响不大，因为所用材料不同。"一位彩电出口企业的相关负责人向第一财经记者表示。 海关数据显示，2025年1-10月，中国白色家电对墨西哥出口金额达29.19亿美元，同比减少10.6%；其中，空调、洗衣机、冷柜的出口金额分别同比减少 30%、49.86%和1 ...

20世纪50年代，美国的贸易政策表面上看似平静无波，表面上该开放的开放，该签的协议签，实际上已 经悄然发生了变化。几年前，美国还在大力提倡自由贸易，但随后就开始悄悄地在国内产业上设置壁 垒，这种无声的转型并非偶然，而是背后利益重新洗牌的结果。 当时的美国政坛，光从贸易政策上看，很难分清谁是民主党，谁是共和党。原本以为两党会像过去那样 为关税问题争论不休，然而在1948年共和党控制了国会之后，竟然没有废除民主党提出的《互惠贸易协 定法案》，反而还给了延长授权。后来，艾森豪威尔作为共和党总统上台后，1953年继续延续了这一做 法，而1954年即便国会依旧由共和党占优，依然给予了延期。这在以前简直无法想象，因为共和党一直 以保护主义者自居，而民主党则是低关税的代表。然而，这一变化的根源，其实与美国南部的经济转型 密切相关。 到1947年，美国四分之三的纺织品都是南部生产的，南部的民主党议员曾是自由贸易的坚定支持者，但 现在为了自己的纺织产业，他们开始转向与共和党中的保护主义者合作。1955年，当国会再次批准《互 惠贸易协定法案》延期时，还加入了危险点条款和例外条款，规定如果进口威胁到国内产业，政府可以 暂停相关进口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of global trade protectionism is leading to anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures becoming a long-term norm, prompting Chinese export companies to utilize RCEP transshipment trade as a vital tool for restructuring international channels [1]. Group 1: RCEP Institutional Benefits - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has simplified origin rules, expanded regional accumulation scope, and reduced tariff barriers among members, resulting in structural changes in regional trade models [4]. - According to RCEP origin rules, products with over 30% cumulative value added within member countries can be recognized as RCEP-origin products, significantly lowering the threshold for "origin transformation" [4]. - By 2025, intermediate goods trade within the RCEP region is projected to reach 68.3%, indicating the rapid formation of a regional supply chain characterized by processing, transshipment, and redistribution [4]. Group 2: Southeast Asia as a Transshipment Hub - Southeast Asian countries are emerging as crucial transshipment hubs due to their industrial capacity and advantageous tariff structures, connecting China with global markets [6]. - Average tariff levels for exports to Europe and the U.S. range from 5% to 15%, making Southeast Asia an attractive option for intermediate processing and value addition [6]. - The domestic "zero tariff" policy in Hainan Free Trade Port, covering approximately 6,600 items, further reduces costs for transshipment and regional distribution, facilitating a multi-stage export pathway of "domestic—RCEP—third market" [6]. Group 3: Back-to-Back Certificates Enhancing Feasibility - A key innovation of RCEP is the issuance of back-to-back certificates of origin, effectively addressing the challenge of maintaining origin qualifications in transshipment trade [8]. - In practice, goods transiting between RCEP member countries can have their origin certificates reissued as long as they retain their origin attributes and meet agreement conditions, allowing subsequent exports to benefit from tariff reductions [8]. - For instance, in the first seven months of 2025, enterprises in Qingdao utilized RCEP certificates to achieve an export value of 7.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8% [8]. Group 4: Upgrading Transshipment Trade - Current RCEP transshipment trade is evolving from simple "logistics transshipment" or "label changes" to a more compliant, processed, and structured approach [9]. - The processing phase is increasingly focused on substantial value addition, with stricter verification of origin rules and higher compliance requirements for documentation [9]. - Transshipment pathways are becoming integrated into long-term supply chain planning for enterprises, indicating that transshipment trade is transitioning from an "emergency measure" to a systematic export solution [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - With the long-term trend of anti-dumping measures and detailed origin reviews, the core of future export competition will hinge on the ability to establish regional supply chain layouts, familiarity with RCEP origin rules, and the capacity to achieve identity transformation under compliance [11]. - RCEP transshipment trade is expected to continue expanding in the coming years, becoming a key pathway for Chinese export companies to tackle high tariff barriers, diversify market risks, and enhance export resilience [11]. - In the context of reshaping global trade rules, RCEP serves not only as a tariff reduction agreement but also as a tool for reconstructing regional industrial chains and export pathways [11].

特朗普自1月20日就职以来，白宫就开始筹划大动作，特别是针对全球进口商品，尤其是对中国征收高 额关税。4月2日，特朗普宣布进入国家紧急状态，行使总统权力，自4月5日起，对所有进口商品加征 10%的关税。这一措施本意是为了保护美国制造业，但却迅速引发了全球反应。 特朗普原本想通过关税威胁其他国家，结果却是自己承受了最大的损失。11月2日，地缘政治经济网发 布报道称，特朗普在贸易战中失败，美国经济受创，而中国则从全球万亿美元的交易中并未遭受太大损 失。特朗普的支持率在一些州出现下滑，党内也开始批评他视野狭隘。国际上，多国加强了区域合作， 而美国的全球影响力则逐渐减弱。全球贸易正朝着多极化发展，合作成为主流趋势。特朗普在后期转向 推动国内刺激政策，但关税留下的经济裂痕依然需要填补。 《华尔街日报》另一篇10月31日的文章直言，贸易战并未改变中国经济的轨迹。美国曾希望通过促使中 国进行经济改革，但这一希望早已破灭，现在这种策略也彻底失败。特朗普的关税从最初的145%下降 到逐步减少的状态，但依然没有达到零关税的水平。官员们也承认，这场贸易战已无法继续下去，根本 不可持续。中国准确识破了美国的虚张声势，并作出了精准的反 ...

来源：中国新闻网 编辑：董文博 商务部：望欧方克制审慎使用限制性经贸工具 中新社北京12月18日电 (记者 刘文文)针对法国总统马克龙近日发表的有关中欧经贸关系的评论，中国 商务部新闻发言人何亚东18日在例行新闻发布会上回应称，希望欧方保持市场开放，克制审慎使用限制 性经贸工具。 何亚东称，中方始终认为，中欧经贸关系的本质是优势互补、互利共赢。中欧经贸合作是双方经济发展 阶段、产业结构差异、市场需求变化等多种因素共同作用的结果。 他说，近期欧盟不断加大对华经贸限制力度，今年以来对中国发起12起贸易救济调查、3起外国补贴调 查，阻止多家中国企业参与欧盟成员国公共采购和绿地投资。 何亚东表示，希望欧方与中方一道，恪守中欧领导人会晤达成的重要共识，共同反对保护主义，保持市 场开放，克制审慎使用限制性经贸工具，为中国企业赴欧开展贸易和投资合作提供公平、透明、非歧 视、可预期的营商环境。(完) 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财 ...

Group 1 - Multiple international institutions have raised their growth forecasts for China's economy, with the IMF increasing its 2025 growth prediction by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and the World Bank raising it by 0.4 percentage points [1] - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have also adopted a positive outlook, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its 2025 growth forecast from 4.9% to 5.0% [1] - This upward revision occurs amidst a globally unstable economic environment, where the IMF projects a global growth rate of only 3.2% for 2025 [1] Group 2 - Resilience is a key theme highlighted by various institutions regarding China's economy, with the IMF noting significant resilience despite multiple shocks [2] - The World Bank states that China's economic performance has exceeded initial expectations for the year, particularly in exports [2] Group 3 - The resilience of China's economy is attributed to strong macroeconomic policies and the coordinated efforts of the "three drivers" of growth [3] - The Chinese government has prioritized expanding domestic demand, with policies like the trade-in program for consumer goods contributing to a recovery in consumer spending [3] - In the first three quarters, China's retail sales grew by 4.5% year-on-year, with final consumption contributing 53.5% to economic growth, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous year [3] Group 4 - China's foreign trade remains robust, with a 4.0% year-on-year increase in total goods imports and exports in the first three quarters, and a 6.2% increase in trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries [3] - The World Bank emphasizes that the diversification of export markets is a crucial support for China's trade resilience [3] Group 5 - China's export competitiveness is no longer primarily reliant on price, as the country has established a strong presence in advanced industries such as electric vehicles and solar panels, allowing it to withstand moderate currency appreciation [4] - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined a more proactive macroeconomic policy approach, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and a strong domestic market for 2026 [4] Group 6 - The IMF's managing director expressed confidence in China's potential for stronger economic growth, projecting that China's contribution to global economic growth could remain around 30% in the coming years [6] - China's economic growth is seen as a stabilizing force for the global economy, benefiting not only its own development but also the broader world economy [6]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgency to invest now [1][13] - The energy demands of AI technologies are significant, with data centers consuming as much energy as small cities, leading to concerns about power grid capacity and rising electricity prices [2][3] Investment Opportunity - A specific company is highlighted as a critical player in the AI energy sector, owning essential energy infrastructure assets that are poised to benefit from the increasing energy demands of AI [3][7] - This company is not a chipmaker or cloud platform but is positioned as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, collecting fees from energy exports [5][6] Financial Position - The company is noted for being debt-free and holding a substantial cash reserve, which is nearly one-third of its market capitalization, providing a strong financial foundation [8][10] - It is trading at less than 7 times earnings, indicating a potentially undervalued investment opportunity compared to its peers [10] Market Trends - The company is strategically aligned with several market trends, including the onshoring boom driven by tariffs, a surge in U.S. LNG exports, and a unique position in nuclear energy [14][7] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation and advancements, further solidifying the importance of investing in AI-related companies [12] Future Outlook - The potential for significant returns is emphasized, with projections suggesting a possible 100% return within 12 to 24 months for investors who act now [15] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the disruption caused by AI, which is reshaping traditional industries and creating new opportunities for growth [11][12]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China urges the EU to immediately stop unreasonable suppression of foreign investment enterprises, including those from China [1][3] - The spokesperson highlighted that the essence of China-EU economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and complementarity, influenced by various factors such as economic development stages and market demand changes [1] - The EU has intensified trade restrictions against China, initiating 12 trade remedy investigations and 3 foreign subsidy investigations this year, which hindered several Chinese companies from participating in public procurement and greenfield investments in EU member states [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce expresses strong opposition to the EU's recent investigations under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR), which are seen as discriminatory and harmful to Chinese enterprises operating in Europe [2][3] - A report from the EU-China Chamber of Commerce indicates that 63% of surveyed Chinese companies in Europe have been affected by FSR, with 12% experiencing direct impacts and 51% reporting damage to their business image and confidence [2] Group 3 - Ongoing negotiations between China and the EU regarding electric vehicle tariffs and minimum price schemes are taking place, with China advocating for dialogue to resolve differences and create a stable market environment [4][5] - The Ministry of Commerce appreciates the EU's willingness to restart price commitment negotiations, emphasizing the importance of maintaining mutual trust and efficiency in discussions [5] - The use of trade defense tools by the EU, particularly the anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles, has introduced new uncertainties in China-EU economic relations, affecting Chinese automotive companies' market performance and business planning [5]

瞬息万变的国际经济环境中，政策波动对全球贸易脉络的影响愈发显著，美国作为全球经济巨头，其贸 易政策的摇摆正引发连锁反应。美国国家零售联合会（NRF）与哈克特协会联合发布的《全球港口追踪 报告》显示，美国主要集装箱港口进口量正遭遇断崖式下滑，一系列惊人数据揭开了全球供应链的深层 困境。 市场呈现的 "冰火两重天" 局面，折射出贸易政策的扭曲影响。美国零售联合会同时预测，2025 年假日 季销售额将首次突破 1 万亿美元大关，同比增长 3.7%-4.2%。这一数据与港口进口量的下滑形成强烈反 差，本质是零售商囤货策略的短期效应 —— 通过提前储备商品规避关税风险，暂时支撑了销售数据。 但这种平衡难以持续，随着库存逐渐消化，新货补充因关税压力受阻，物价上涨将不可避免，普通消费 者将面临"美元购买力缩水"的窘境，蛰伏的通胀压力可能再度抬头。 业内专家普遍共识，特朗普政府的关税政策是引发供应链危机的核心根源，其负面影响将持续发酵。自 特朗普政府推行 "关税战" 以来，美国对华及多个贸易伙伴加征的关税已累计覆盖数千亿美元商品，部 分品类税率高达 50%。这种以 "保护本土产业" 为名的贸易保护主义，实则严重扰乱了全球供应 ...