Group 1 - The report indicates that the secondary market experienced a slight net outflow of funds, with industry ETFs showing net inflows while broad-based ETFs continued to see net outflows [2][5][10] - In July, the market risk appetite is expected to improve, with incremental funds likely to continue flowing in, primarily favoring large-cap stocks, while growth and value stocks may see a more balanced performance [2][5] - The liquidity index for A-shares shows a decrease in public fund issuance to 4.251 billion, a drop in ETF net subscriptions to -20.657 billion, and an increase in financing net purchases to 12.607 billion [4][29] Group 2 - The report highlights that overall, ETFs have been experiencing continuous net outflows this year, with industry ETFs showing a slow net inflow while broad-based ETFs have seen significant outflows [5][10][13] - The report notes that the net inflow for industry ETFs is attributed to investors' preference for participating in structural market trends through these funds [13][15] - The report also mentions that the overseas-listed Chinese asset ETFs have shown little change, indicating a slight net outflow [15] Group 3 - The report outlines that the financing balance has increased, with net purchases of financing reaching 12.61 billion, while the net outflow from ETFs was 20.66 billion [5][29] - The report indicates that the market sentiment has weakened, with a decrease in the trading activity of financing funds and a decline in equity risk premiums [39][41] - The report identifies that sectors such as defense, non-bank financials, and metals have seen significant net inflows, while sectors like banking, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage have experienced net outflows [48][49]

Domestic News - The State Council issued a notice to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures from the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, covering seven areas including service trade, goods trade, digital trade, intellectual property protection, government procurement reform, "post-border" management system reform, and risk prevention [1] - The Ministry of Finance announced a tax credit policy for foreign investors, allowing a 10% tax credit on profits distributed by domestic enterprises for direct investment in China from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2028 [2] - In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone [6] International News - The U.S. Congress passed the controversial "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which was signed into law by President Trump, marking a significant legislative achievement [7] - The OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries decided to increase production by an average of 548,000 barrels per day in August, with key countries participating in the decision [7]

Core Viewpoint - China is experiencing a unique dual opportunity window in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, necessitating innovation incentives and capital market reforms to unlock development potential [1][3]. Group 1: Achievements and Challenges in China's Manufacturing Sector - China has made significant breakthroughs in manufacturing, becoming the world's largest exporter of automobiles for two consecutive years and projected to have integrated circuits as its top export item in 2024, with an export value of $159.5 billion [2]. - Despite these achievements, China faces a semiconductor trade deficit exceeding $200 billion, indicating a low self-sufficiency rate in chips, with imports being predominantly high-end while exports remain focused on mid to low-end products [2][3]. Group 2: The Role of Capital in Innovation - Long-term capital support is crucial for technological innovation, with the need for "patient capital" that aligns with the lengthy timelines required for companies to go public [5]. - The median time from establishment to IPO for A-share companies is 13.4 years (2001-2024) compared to 11 years for U.S. companies, highlighting the challenges faced by Chinese firms in accessing capital markets [5][7]. Group 3: Encouraging Entrepreneurial Spirit - The essence of stimulating innovation lies in creating significant wealth effects, which can motivate entrepreneurs to innovate and invest [6]. - Confidence among private entrepreneurs is largely influenced by positive expectations regarding policies, legal frameworks, and the overall business environment [6]. Group 4: Capital Market Reforms - Capital market reforms are essential for unlocking potential, with a focus on creating a more inclusive environment for companies, including those that are not yet profitable [7][9]. - The upcoming implementation of a third set of standards on the ChiNext board aims to support high-quality, unprofitable innovative companies in going public, reflecting a shift towards a more market-driven approach [8]. Group 5: Learning from Global Markets - The U.S. capital market's ability to accommodate unprofitable companies has been a significant factor in its innovation ecosystem, contrasting sharply with the low percentage of loss-making IPOs in China [7][9]. - The emphasis on a market-oriented and rule-of-law approach in the registration system is seen as a way to stimulate entrepreneurship and investment across society [8][9].

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is advancing a new round of comprehensive capital market reforms, focusing on the "Two Innovation Boards" to enhance the attractiveness and competitiveness of the A-share market [2] - According to招商证券, the Chinese economy's total demand growth has stabilized after three years of decline, leading to a potential revaluation of A-shares as high-return stocks attract continuous capital [3] - 东兴证券 indicates that A-shares are at the starting point of a new structural slow bull market, with a breakthrough at 3400 marking the beginning of a new journey supported by seven core factors, including increased demand for equity allocation in a low-interest-rate environment [4] Group 2 - The stock market has seen a recovery since the fourth quarter of last year, with a significant improvement in the issuance scale of equity funds compared to the same period last year, indicating a growing willingness among residents to allocate savings to the stock market [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the significant increase in new A-share accounts in the first half of the year reflects the effectiveness of capital market reforms and is driven by multiple factors including policy guidance, the rise of new economic drivers, and investor asset reallocation [1][4] Group 2 - The steady growth in new A-share accounts indicates an improvement in investors' expectations regarding the capital market's fundamentals and corporate profitability, with total trading volume reaching 162.68 trillion yuan, significantly higher than 101 trillion yuan in the same period last year [2] - The increase in new accounts is correlated with market performance, influenced by economic fundamentals, as seen in February when daily trading volume reached 1.84 trillion yuan, attracting more investors due to the strong performance of sectors like artificial intelligence [3] - The high growth in new A-share accounts is beneficial for the securities industry, with expectations of continued high growth in the mid-term performance of listed brokerages, enhancing market confidence [3]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a narrow range consolidation with a decrease in trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3454.79 points, down 0.09% [1][4][9] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10412.63 points, down 0.61%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.13% [1][4][9] - Among 30 first-level industries, 13 saw an increase, with steel, coal, and building materials leading the gains, while comprehensive finance, defense, and electronics faced significant declines [1][4][9] Overseas Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.02%, the S&P 500 up 0.47% reaching a new historical high, and the Nasdaq up 0.94% [2][4] - Notably, Tesla's stock rose nearly 5%, and Nvidia increased by over 2% [2][4] Key News Highlights - Chinese Finance Minister attended the UN Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, emphasizing global cooperation in addressing development challenges [3][11] - The EU Commission President met with China's Foreign Minister to discuss enhancing cooperation and addressing mutual concerns [3][12][13] - Sichuan Province announced support for the development of duty-free shops in Chengdu, aiming to boost local consumption [3][14][15] - A Chinese official suggested the potential for Hong Kong to develop an offshore RMB stablecoin, reflecting the growing trend of digital assets [3][16] - Former US President announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US [3][18] Market Drivers - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need to optimize capital market mechanisms to promote efficient resource allocation and investor protection [10] - On the same day, 1945 stocks rose while 3284 fell, indicating a mixed market sentiment [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The unexpected sharp decline in US ADP employment data led to a differentiated reaction in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Party Committee emphasized maintaining capital market stability as the primary task and building a system environment conducive to high - quality market development. On the day, small and medium - cap stocks showed a shrinking adjustment, with a generally controllable correction range but intensified internal differentiation [1][3] Summary by Catalog Market Analysis - Domestically, the CSRC Party Committee emphasized optimizing capital market mechanisms, protecting investors, deepening reforms, promoting opening - up, and maintaining market stability. Overseas, the US June ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, and the service industry employment had the largest decline since the pandemic [1] - In the spot market, A - share indices closed down, with technology stocks correcting. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to 3454.79, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.13%. The trading volume of the two markets dropped to 1.4 trillion yuan. In June 2025, 1.65 million new A - share accounts were opened, a 5.84% increase from the previous month, and 12.6 million new accounts were opened in the first half of the year, a 32.77% increase from the same period in 2024. Overseas, US indices had mixed results [2] - In the futures market, the basis discounts of stock index futures converged to varying degrees. The trading volumes of IH and IF increased, and the IF open interest rebounded [2] Strategy - The unexpected decline in US ADP employment data led to a differentiated reaction in the US stock market. The CSRC's emphasis on market stability is conducive to the high - quality development of the market. Small and medium - cap stocks adjusted with controllable declines and intensified internal differentiation [3] Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts on the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A - share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles. All data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][11][12] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on July 2, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.61%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.13%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.02%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.21%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.70%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.01% [13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The table of futures open interest and trading volume shows the changes in the trading volume and open interest of IH, IF, and IC. The basis table shows the changes in the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM for different contracts. The inter - period spread table shows the inter - period spreads and their changes for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM [6][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy shows mixed trends with stable GDP growth, some improvement in manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs, and varying performance in other economic indicators. The capital market is undergoing reforms to optimize mechanisms and protect investors. Different industries such as metals, energy, and agriculture face diverse market situations [1][2][15] - The bond market in China has a strong performance recently, while the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has some fluctuations. The stock market has sector - specific movements, with some traditional sectors showing strength and new开户 numbers increasing [21][26][29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 had a 5.4% year - on - year growth, unchanged from the previous quarter but slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in June 2025 was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in June was 50.5%, also up from 50.3% in the previous month [1] - In May 2025, social financing scale increased, M0, M1, and M2 had different year - on - year growth rates, and financial institution RMB loans increased. CPI remained at - 0.1% year - on - year, while PPI decreased further to - 3.3% year - on - year. Fixed - asset investment growth slowed, while social consumer goods retail grew [1] - In May 2025, exports had a 4.8% year - on - year growth, down from 8.1% in the previous month, and imports decreased by 3.4% year - on - year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The CSRC will optimize capital market mechanisms, protect investors, and promote reforms. The DCE will list pure benzene futures and options on July 8, which will provide risk - management tools for the industry [2] - The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, and the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September [2] 3.2.2 Metals - Chinese lithium - battery industry chains are expanding to Southeast Asia. New regulations on anti - money - laundering reporting for large - scale precious - metal cash transactions have little impact on ordinary consumers [3] - On July 2, international gold prices declined slightly. However, with expectations of a Fed rate cut and strong central - bank gold purchases, gold prices are expected to remain stable. Multiple institutions are bullish on gold prices in 2026 [3][4] - On July 1, LME aluminum, copper, and nickel inventories increased, while zinc, lead, tin inventories decreased [4] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - On July 2, A - share steel and photovoltaic sectors had a rally due to the "anti - involution" campaign. Tangshan is likely to intensify environmental protection - related production restrictions [6] - Vale lowered its 2025 iron ore pellet production forecast. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota validity period from three to one year [6][7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC's crude - oil production reached a four - month high in June due to Saudi Arabia's push to regain market share, increasing downward pressure on oil prices [9] - The US EIA crude - oil inventory in the week ending June 27 was 3.845 million barrels, higher than expected. US weekly crude imports increased, while exports and domestic production decreased slightly [9][10] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On July 2, the central bank conducted 98.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 266.8 billion yuan. In June, the central bank had net liquidity injections through various tools [14] 3.3.2 Key News - Many foreign institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth. The NDRC has allocated over 300 billion yuan for the third - batch of "two important" construction projects in 2025 [15] - The CSRC emphasizes capital - market reforms and risk prevention. The Ministry of Finance plans to issue and use special and special - purpose bonds earlier, and some super - long - term special bonds will be issued ahead of schedule in Q3 [15][16] - The "self - review and self - issuance" pilot for local government special bonds is progressing, and the issuance is expected to speed up in H2. The logistics industry index in June was 50.8%, up from the previous month [17] 3.3.3 Bond Market - China's bond market showed a strong performance, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market falling and bond - futures prices rising. The money - market rates mostly declined [21][23] - In the exchange - bond market, some bonds rose, while others fell. The convertible - bond market had mixed performance. Overseas, European and US bond yields generally increased [22][24][25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1670 on July 2, down 52 points from the previous day. The US dollar index rose 0.14% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [26] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the RMB internationalization has room for improvement in investment and official reserves, and suggests several development directions. CICC Fixed Income recommends paying attention to REITs' allocation opportunities [27] - Fitch Ratings believes that using special bonds to purchase existing commercial housing for affordable housing can strengthen the policy function of Chinese urban - investment enterprises [27] 3.4 Stock Market News - On July 2, A - share steel and photovoltaic sectors had a rally due to the "anti - involution" campaign. In June, A - share new accounts increased by 5.84% month - on - month, and the H1 total was 32.77% higher than in 2024 [29][30] - The Hong Kong market has been rising this year, with the Hang Seng Index up 20% in H1 and significant south - bound capital inflows. The IPO outlook in Hong Kong has been upgraded [31][32]

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/7/3 08:00 | 2025/7/2 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 44484.42 | 44494.94 | -10.520 | -0.024 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 20393.13 | 20202.89 | 190.240 | 0.942 | | 标普500 | | 6227.42 | 6198.01 | 29.410 | 0.475 | | 恒生指数 | | 24221.41 | 24072.28 | 149.130 | 0.620 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.37 | 1.37 | -0.002 | -0.146 | | 美元指数 | | 96.75 | 96.78 | -0.032 | -0.033 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.17 | 7.17 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合约 | | 2025/7/2 | 2025/7/1 | 涨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the announcement of a comprehensive financial policy package by the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to stabilize the market and expectations [1] - The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy includes a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, aimed at enhancing liquidity and credit supply in specific sectors [1][2] - The reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0% is expected to lower their funding costs and improve credit supply capabilities [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures to lower policy interest rates, including a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which is expected to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] - The central bank's support for capital markets includes optimizing two monetary policy tools with a total quota of 800 billion yuan, allowing for more flexible use of funds [3] - The Central Huijin Investment Company is emphasized as a key player in maintaining capital market stability, with the central bank providing sufficient support for its operations [3] Group 3 - The expansion of pilot programs for insurance funds to invest long-term is set to inject an additional 60 billion yuan into the market, alongside adjustments to solvency regulations to encourage more stock investments [4] - The focus on increasing the scale and proportion of long-term funds entering the market is highlighted, with initiatives to promote high-quality development of public funds [4] - The roadmap for capital market reforms includes measures to enhance the stability and adaptability of the market, with a focus on supporting technological innovation and improving the investment environment for foreign entities [5]