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逆周期和跨周期调节
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中央财办发声!明年将根据形势出台增量政策
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-12-13 06:17
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to perform better than anticipated, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan for 2025, and policies will be implemented in 2026 to further stimulate economic growth [1][3]. Economic Performance - Major economic indicators in China are showing better-than-expected results, with a projected annual growth rate of around 5%, making China the largest engine of global economic growth [2]. - The economy has demonstrated resilience and vitality, with stable employment, rapid growth in foreign trade, and significant advancements in modern industrial systems [2]. Economic Projections - The GDP is expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan this year, marking a significant milestone in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - International institutions, including the IMF and Goldman Sachs, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China for the next two years [3]. Policy Implementation - In 2024, new incremental policies will be introduced based on changing circumstances, aiming to synergize existing and new policies to promote stable economic growth [4]. Risk Mitigation - Positive progress has been made in mitigating risks in key areas, including the orderly replacement of local government hidden debts and the completion of housing delivery tasks [5]. Economic Work Guidelines - The central economic work meeting outlined five essential principles for economic work under new circumstances, emphasizing the need to explore economic potential, combine policy support with reform, and ensure effective management [6][7][8]. Income and Economic Growth - In 2026, efforts will focus on synchronizing income growth with economic growth, maintaining stability in employment and prices, and implementing proactive fiscal policies [9]. Trade and Openness - China aims to expand both exports and imports, promoting sustainable foreign trade and enhancing service sector openness [10]. Innovation and Technology - The focus will be on innovation-driven growth, with plans to expand international science and technology innovation centers to foster original innovation [11]. Consumer Market Development - Policies will be optimized to stimulate consumption, including enhancing the supply of quality goods and services and improving the inbound consumption environment [12]. Corporate Debt Management - Measures will be taken to address corporate debt issues and ensure a healthy market order through regulatory actions [13]. Education and Employment - There will be an increase in high school enrollment and quality university admissions to adapt to demographic changes and improve employment quality [14]. Green Energy Initiatives - The construction of a new energy system will be accelerated, with a focus on expanding green electricity applications and promoting carbon emission control [15][16].
中央经济工作会议,这些提法意涵深刻!
Xin Hua She· 2025-12-13 05:32
Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, summarized economic work for 2025, analyzed the current economic situation, and outlined tasks for 2026 [1] Group 1: Key Principles - The conference emphasized "Five Musts" for economic work: fully tapping economic potential, combining policy support with reform and innovation, ensuring both flexibility and effective management, investing in both physical and human capital, and honing internal capabilities to face external challenges [3][4] Group 2: Policy Directions - The conference highlighted the need for a policy orientation focused on stability and progress, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement, while leveraging both existing and new policies to enhance macroeconomic governance [9] Group 3: Eight Key Tasks - The conference outlined "Eight Persistences" as key tasks for the upcoming year, including prioritizing domestic demand, driving innovation, tackling reforms, maintaining openness, promoting coordinated development, leading with "dual carbon" goals, prioritizing people's livelihoods, and ensuring bottom-line security [12] Group 4: Domestic Market Focus - The conference prioritized building a strong domestic market, with tasks such as formulating a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income, optimizing the implementation of new policies, and increasing central budget investments [15] Group 5: Innovation and Reform - The conference called for a focus on innovation, with tasks including developing a comprehensive plan for education, technology, and talent development, and establishing international technology innovation centers in key regions [17] Group 6: Market Regulation - The conference stressed the importance of reform to enhance high-quality development, including establishing a national unified market construction regulation and addressing issues like overdue payments to businesses [19] Group 7: External Cooperation - The conference emphasized the need for external openness and cooperation, with plans to gradually expand service sector openness and promote digital and green trade [22] Group 8: Coordinated Development - The conference highlighted the importance of coordinated development, focusing on rural-urban integration and regional collaboration, with specific tasks aimed at promoting high-quality county economic development [25] Group 9: Green Transition - The conference underscored the commitment to a green transition, with plans to develop a national energy strategy and enhance carbon trading market construction [27] Group 10: Livelihood Improvements - The conference aimed to prioritize people's livelihoods, with initiatives to support flexible employment, increase educational opportunities, and reform healthcare payment methods [31] Group 11: Real Estate Stability - The conference addressed the need to stabilize the real estate market through targeted measures, inventory reduction, and promoting the construction of quality housing [34]
韩文秀:2026年要促进居民收入增长和经济增长同步
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-12-13 04:51
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to maintain stable economic growth, employment, and overall price stability in 2024, while promoting synchronized growth of residents' income and the economy [1] Economic Stability - The government emphasizes the need to ensure stable economic growth and maintain overall stability in employment and prices [1] - There is a focus on achieving a basic balance in international payments [1] Policy Approach - The approach for economic work in the coming year will be to adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency [1] - There will be an increase in counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [1]
视频|主要目标将顺利完成 中国经济今年有哪些亮眼表现?专家解读
会议用"五个必须"科学总结了做好新形势下经济工作新的认识和体会,并提出我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变,要坚定信心、用好优 势、应对挑战,不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出今年我国经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。这一年,中国经济有哪些亮眼表现?如何看待当 前经济形势?专家对此进行了解读。 今年我国经济社会发展 主要目标将顺利完成 0:00 / 1:22 中央经济工作会议指出,今年是很不平凡的一年,我国经济顶压前行,向新向优发展,现代化产业体系建设持续推进,改革开放迈出新步伐,重点领域 风险化解取得积极进展,民生保障更加有力。 国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室副主任 邹蕴涵:今年以来,全球经济增长持续放缓,我国经济总体保持了平稳的发展态势,各方的积极性、 主动性充分调动,各类宏观政策持续加力显效,共同推动经济的内生增长动力不断壮大,全年的各项指标将顺利完成,我国的经济高质量发展迈出了坚实的 步伐。 国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室副主任邹蕴涵:会议实际上毫不讳言地直面我们当前面对的非常突出的矛盾,比如说我们经济里边供强虚弱的 问题,并且对 ...
央行:发挥存量和增量政策集成效应
三是继续实施适度宽松的货币政策,加快推进金融供给侧结构性改革。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理 回升作为货币政策的重要考量,灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具,把握好政策实施的力度、 节奏和时机,保持流动性充裕,促进社会综合融资成本低位运行,加强对实体经济的金融支持。畅通货 币政策传导机制,优化结构性货币政策工具运用,加强与财政政策的协同,激励和引导金融机构加力支 持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 ● 本报记者 彭扬 12月12日,中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜主持召开党委会议,传达学习中央经济工作会议精神, 落实全国金融系统工作会议要求,研究部署贯彻落实举措。就做好明年央行工作,会议明确,将继续实 施适度宽松的货币政策,发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。把促进经 济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量,灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。 会议认为,习近平总书记在中央经济工作会议上的重要讲话,全面总结一年来和过去5年经济工作,深 化提出做好经济工作的规律性认识,深刻分析当前我国经济运行面临的国际国内形势,系统部署明 ...
国际锐评丨新一年的“中国机遇”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-12 17:42
明年中国经济怎么干?对比去年的中央经济工作会议内容可以发现,今年的会议内容出现不少新表述。 比如,去年关于"当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深"的表述,今年变成了"外部环境变化影响加 深"。有分析称,这说明中国更有信心和能力去应对外部压力、主动运筹国际空间。再比如,今年会议 提出"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"。分析人士指出,这意味着后续政策改革更加基于长远经济周期变 化,体现出中国决策层对经济规律的精准把握以及审时度势的调整。 转自:北京日报客户端 "在全球经济不确定性上升的背景下,中国以更主动、更稳健的政策调节经济,有助于自身经济增长, 并为世界经济提供有效需求。"对于10日至11日在北京召开的中央经济工作会议,美中合作基金会执行 主席约翰·米勒-怀特与《国际锐评》进行了交流。消费者健康企业科赴中国总裁沈馥安对《国际锐评》 表示,会议部署的建设强大国内市场、坚持创新驱动、坚持对外开放等2026年重点任务让人印象深 刻,"这意味着外资将迎来更多发展机遇,我们有信心与中国经济共成长"。 中国这场年度经济会议何以吸引世界目光?从中国发展方位看,明年是"十五五"开局之年,这次会议 在"十四五"即将圆满收官、"十五五 ...
中国经济面面观丨逆周期与跨周期并重 结构性优化提升政策能效
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-12-12 13:24
Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing analyzed the current economic situation and outlined plans for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the integration of stock and incremental policies and increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts [1] Group 1 - The conference highlighted the importance of collaborative efforts among various policies to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [1]
明年经济工作“施工图”来了!
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-12-12 13:04
中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行,总结2025年经济工作,分析当前经济形势,部署 2026年经济工作。 对于明年经济工作的政策取向,中央经济工作会议指出,要坚持稳中求进、提质增效,发挥存量政 策和增量政策集成效应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,提升宏观经济治理效能。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬指出,在政策基调方面出现了两个新表述。一是首提"稳中求进、提质 增效"。政策总基调通常将"稳中求进、以进促稳"作为固定搭配,今年提出"稳中求进、提质增效",或 预示着政策将更加注重质量和效果。 二是"逆周期和跨周期"重回政策视野。此次中央经济工作会议要求"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 度",意味着政策将更注重连续性,在短期稳增长与中长期调结构之间保持平衡。 关于明年的目标任务,会议要求,推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长,保持社会和谐稳 定,实现"十五五"良好开局。 据东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青判断,2026年GDP增速目标将设定为"4.5%至5.0%之间",较2025 年"5.0%左右"的增速目标有所下调,继续保持中高速增长水平。 行至岁尾,回看全年,会议指出,今年是很不平凡的一年。我国经济顶压前行、向新向优 ...
央行:着力扩大内需、优化供给,做优增量、盘活存量
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-12 12:42
每经AI快讯,12月12日,中国人民银行党委召开会议,传达学习中央经济工作会议精神,会议强调, 做好明年中国人民银行工作,要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,全面贯彻党的二十大和 二十届历次全会精神,认真贯彻中央经济工作会议精神,按照全国金融系统工作会议工作部署,坚持稳 中求进工作总基调,完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念,继续实施适度宽松的货币政策,发挥存量政策和增 量政策集成效应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,着力扩大内需、优化供给,做优增量、盘活存量,为 经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境。 ...
2026经济定调!六大主线与你钱包挂钩,消费补贴提额、贷款更便宜
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-12 12:25
2026年经济大方向已明确,六大主线正式定调,消费补贴提额、贷款利率走低的利好信号接连释放,每 一项都和普通人的钱包紧紧挂钩。 小李最近翻完政策解读,明显感觉到这次的风向很实在,不是空泛的规划,而是能直接落地到日常消 费、房贷还款、日常开支的实惠。 这些政策红利真的能落到咱们口袋里吗?消费补贴具体能省多少钱,贷款优惠又能覆盖哪些场景? 其实不用纠结,政策的初衷就是让普通人享受到经济发展的红利,关键是要摸准方向、找对方法,接下 来就跟大家拆解,这六大主线里藏着哪些赚钱、省钱的机会,普通人该怎么接住这份福利。 当经济周期里的"三重节点" 小李最近翻读政治局会议的表述,越琢磨越觉得当下的经济阶段像一台正在换挡的车辆,并非突然踩下 刹车,而是踩着离合缓缓调整齿轮,既要承接此前的运行惯性,又得适配后续的新行进方向。 会议明确这是"从托底到发力的临界点",通俗来讲就是:前两年经济工作以"稳字当头"。 比如通过政策托举房地产、保障就业,避免经济失速;如今托底的支撑力已充足,是时候踩下油门向新 方向迈进。 同时,这也是"十四五"与"十五五"的衔接点,相当于中期发展规划的承上启下键,前五年的转型框架已 搭建完成,后五年要填充具 ...