Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15 - 7.25. The counter - cyclical factor has been activated, and the improvement of onshore assets has enhanced the popularity of the yuan. However, attention should be paid to the volatility risks caused by the Fed's statements during the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [46][49]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month US dollar against the Chinese yuan options shows an appreciation trend of the yuan, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end. The volatility of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan options has continued to decline, indicating a weakened market expectation of future volatility [4]. - In July 2025, the non - bank sector's foreign - related income was 6904 billion US dollars, and external payments were 6981 billion US dollars, with the payment and receipt scale close to balance. Both payments and receipts were at a high level, indicating that cross - border trade, investment, and service activities remained strong. Seasonal factors led to slightly higher payments than income, but the overall operation was still stable [44]. 2. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has been activated, and there has been a fluctuation in the 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread [10]. 3. Macroeconomic Situation 3.1 US Economy - There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account had a balance of 515.4 billion on August 3rd, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was 57.2 billion US dollars. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not give guidance on a September interest rate cut, stating that it was too early to determine whether the Fed would lower the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected [18]. - The ratio of hawks to doves among Fed voting members is 6:5. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, with some advocating a wait - and - see approach and others supporting interest rate cuts [21]. - The US economic outlook has been revised upward. In July, the decline in fiscal spending was accompanied by a recovery in the service sector's prosperity, which drove the manufacturing industry. However, fiscal spending remained weak. The July non - farm payrolls were significantly revised downward, and the market is waiting for July CPI data [22]. - In July, the US CPI remained flat compared to the previous value, with the core CPI rebounding and the PPI rising more than expected. The rebound in the core CPI was mainly due to the rebound in core services, especially the volatile airline ticket sub - item. The PPI increase was mainly driven by the 2% month - on - month jump in trade services [23]. - US retail sales showed resilience in year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates. Automobile - related, food service and catering, and non - store snacks were the main contributors, and general merchandise stores also remained resilient [26]. 3.2 Chinese Economy - There is a structural divergence in the Chinese economy. In July, exports and consumption showed resilience, but inflation has not recovered, and there is pressure on fixed - asset investment. The fundamentals and market sentiment are increasingly divided [28][29]. - In July 2025, the banking system completed approximately 233.6 billion US dollars in foreign exchange settlement business and 210.8 billion US dollars in foreign exchange sales business, achieving a net surplus of 22.8 billion US dollars. The market showed stable yet dynamic performance, with the foreign exchange market generally in a "stable and positive" state [37]. 4. Domestic Policy - At the 9th Plenary Session of the State Council on August 18th, it was pointed out that efforts should be made to continuously stimulate consumption potential, expand effective investment, consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, and promote the construction of a unified national market [45].

新华社北京8月22日电 中国外汇交易中心8月22日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、 澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉姆、里亚 尔、福林、兹罗提、丹麦克朗、瑞典克朗、挪威克朗、里拉、墨西哥比索及泰铢的市场汇价。 100美元 713.21人民币 100欧元 829.8人民币 100日元 4.8231人民币 100港元 91.285人民币 100英镑 959.67人民币 100澳元 459.11人民币 100新西兰元 416.09人民币 100新加坡元 554.93人民币 100瑞士法郎 883.98人民币 100加元 514.45人民币 100人民币112.88澳门元 100人民币59.109马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1121.97俄罗斯卢布 100人民币247.86南非兰特 100人民币19532韩元 100人民币51.332阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币52.451沙特里亚尔 100人民币4769.55匈牙利福林 100人民币51.23波兰兹罗提 100人民币90.06丹麦克朗 100人民币134.53瑞典克朗 100人民币142.41挪威克朗 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) has depreciated against the US dollar, with the central parity rate reported at 7.1321 on August 22, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 34 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - The central exchange rate for the RMB against various currencies on August 22, 2025, is as follows: - 1 USD = 7.1321 RMB - 1 EUR = 8.2980 RMB - 100 JPY = 4.8231 RMB - 1 HKD = 0.91285 RMB - 1 GBP = 9.5967 RMB - 1 AUD = 4.5911 RMB - 1 NZD = 4.1609 RMB - 1 SGD = 5.5493 RMB - 1 CHF = 8.8398 RMB - 1 CAD = 5.1445 RMB - 1 MOP = 1.1288 RMB - 1 MYR = 0.59109 RMB - 1 RUB = 11.2197 RMB - 1 ZAR = 2.4786 RMB - 1 KRW = 195.32 RMB - 1 AED = 0.51332 RMB - 1 SAR = 0.52451 RMB - 1 HUF = 47.6955 RMB - 1 PLN = 0.51230 RMB - 1 DKK = 0.9006 RMB - 1 SEK = 1.3453 RMB - 1 NOK = 1.4241 RMB - 1 TRY = 5.73020 RMB - 1 MXN = 2.6232 RMB - 1 THB = 4.5545 RMB [2].

美元指数在98至99区间内震荡，截至9时40分，报98.6405。 招商证券认为，7月以来在美元未进一步走低的前提下，人民币中间价保持稳步升值，预计9月美联储降 息前后人民币结汇规模或再度放大，同时若央行继续坚持以市场供求为基础的调控政策，人民币汇率就 有望重返6时代，中国资产吸引力大概率提升。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 黄冰玉 陈佳怡）8月22日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘小幅下 跌，报7.1848，上一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1778。截至9时40分，离岸人民币对美元报7.18645。 同日，人民币对美元中间价7.1321，较上一交易日下调34个基点。 ...

Economic Development - The development of the asset management industry is crucial for reducing the proportion of indirect financing, as it transforms debt into equity through mechanisms like trusts and asset management [3][4] - The current financial system in China primarily supports indirect financing, with a significant reliance on bank loans, while the need for equity capital remains unmet [4][5] - The asset management sector has seen growth but requires further reform, particularly in legal frameworks, to enhance its role in supporting the real economy [6][8] Capital Market and Financing - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving the capital market's foundational systems and increasing the proportion of direct financing, especially equity financing [4] - As of June 2023, the total stock of RMB loans reached 228.86 trillion, with an increase of 16.43 trillion from December 2022, while A-share equity financing in the first half of 2023 was 587.1 billion, a decrease of 353 billion from the second half of 2022 [4] - Despite efforts to promote direct financing, indirect financing remains dominant in social financing, indicating a need for more effective measures to enhance equity financing [4][5] Global Economic Trends - The global economy is experiencing a slowdown, with the IMF projecting growth rates of 3.0% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024, indicating potential recessionary conditions [8][9] - Current global inflation poses challenges, with the need for careful monetary policy to avoid exacerbating economic downturns [8][9] - The trend of de-globalization is emerging, impacting global supply chains and economic efficiency, necessitating a reevaluation of economic strategies [9][10] Financial System and Risk Management - The financial system's primary role is to serve the real economy, with a focus on managing risks effectively [12] - The recent depreciation of the RMB against the USD by 4.8% in the first three quarters of the year raises concerns about currency stability and its impact on asset prices [12][13] - Recommendations suggest prioritizing foreign exchange reserves over currency stabilization, emphasizing the importance of maintaining reserves as a more critical factor [13]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, reflecting a cautious approach amid calls for market stimulus, influenced by global capital flows and the Federal Reserve's policies [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Not Lowering Interest Rates - The current net interest margin for commercial banks has compressed to a historical low of 1.42%, indicating that banks earn only 1.42 yuan for every 100 yuan loaned, which poses systemic risks if LPR is lowered [3]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is a significant constraint, with a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, yet the Fed has maintained its rate at 4.25%-4.5%, leading to a 274 basis point inversion in the 10-year treasury yield between China and the U.S. [5][6]. - Economic fundamentals provide implicit support, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in the first half of the year and a weighted average loan interest rate dropping to a historical low of 3.2%, suggesting that further rate cuts may not be necessary [7]. Group 2: Impact of Global Capital Flows - The inverted interest rate differential of 274 basis points incentivizes foreign capital to withdraw from Chinese bonds, resulting in a net sell-off of 68 billion yuan in July, which increases financing costs for real estate companies [11]. - Currency fluctuations linked to LPR adjustments can indirectly raise mortgage costs for consumers, as a depreciation of the yuan can increase the hidden costs of purchasing property [13]. - The dynamics of LPR stability and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts illustrate the complex interplay of global interest rates, requiring the industry to navigate external pressures while stimulating domestic demand [10].

截至最新发稿时间9时42分，在岸人民币对美元报7.1691，升值0.11%；离岸人民币对美元报7.1726，升 值0.13%。 北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）8月21日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外 汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.1287元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1384元，调升97个基点。 ...

【纠错】 【责任编辑:王頔】 新华社北京8月21日电 中国外汇交易中心8月21日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、 澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉姆、里亚 尔、福林、兹罗提、丹麦克朗、瑞典克朗、挪威克朗、里拉、墨西哥比索及泰铢的市场汇价。 8月21日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 712.87人民币 100欧元 832.87人民币 100日元 4.8535人民币 100港元 91.254人民币 100英镑 962.37人民币 100澳元 460.04人民币 100新西兰元 416.86人民币 100新加坡元 556.38人民币 100瑞士法郎 888.84人民币 100加元 515.47人民币 100人民币112.93澳门元 100人民币59.088马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1122.29俄罗斯卢布 100人民币247.43南非兰特 100人民币19505韩元 100人民币51.341阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币52.463沙特里亚尔 100人民币4734.96匈牙利福林 100人民币50.977波兰兹罗提 100人民币89.63丹麦克朗 10 ...

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯 8月21日，人民币兑美元中间价上调97个基点，报7.1287。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年8月21日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币7.1287元，1欧元对人民币8.3287元，100日元对人民币4.8535元，1港元对人民币0.91254元，1 英镑对人民币9.6237元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6004元，1新西兰元对人民币4.1686元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.5638元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8884元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1547元，人民币1元对1.1293澳门 元，人民币1元对0.59088马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.2229俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4743南非兰 特，人民币1元对195.05韩元，人民币1元对0.51341阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52463沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对47.3496匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.50977波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.8963丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3409瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4315挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.71813土耳其里拉，人民币 ...

Core Points - The central exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is reported at 7.1287, which is an increase of 97 basis points from the previous trading day [1] - The People's Bank of China has authorized the publication of various exchange rates for the yuan against other currencies, including 1 euro at 8.3287 yuan, 100 Japanese yen at 4.8535 yuan, and 1 British pound at 9.6237 yuan [2] Summary by Category - **Exchange Rate Changes** - The yuan's exchange rate against the US dollar has increased by 97 basis points to 7.1287 [1] - **Currency Exchange Rates** - 1 USD = 7.1287 CNY - 1 EUR = 8.3287 CNY - 100 JPY = 4.8535 CNY - 1 HKD = 0.91254 CNY - 1 GBP = 9.6237 CNY - 1 AUD = 4.6004 CNY - 1 NZD = 4.1686 CNY - 1 SGD = 5.5638 CNY - 1 CHF = 8.8884 CNY - 1 CAD = 5.1547 CNY - 1 MOP = 1.1293 CNY - 1 MYR = 0.59088 CNY - 1 RUB = 11.2229 CNY - 1 ZAR = 2.4743 CNY - 1 KRW = 195.05 CNY - 1 AED = 0.51341 CNY - 1 SAR = 0.52463 CNY - 1 HUF = 47.3496 CNY - 1 PLN = 0.50977 CNY - 1 DKK = 0.8963 CNY - 1 SEK = 1.3409 CNY - 1 NOK = 1.4315 CNY - 1 TRY = 5.71813 CNY - 1 MXN = 2.6264 CNY - 1 THB = 4.5455 CNY [2]