北京时间1月14日凌晨，美股周二尾盘走低，道指跌逾400点。美国12月CPI同比上涨2.7%符合预期。多 家金融公司将在本周公布财报，由此正式拉开美股第四季度财报季的帷幕。 道指跌402.46点，跌幅为0.81%，报49187.74点；纳指跌67.74点，跌幅为0.29%，报23666.16点；标普 500指数跌23.05点，跌幅为0.33%，报6954.22点。 消费者价格指数（CPI）用于衡量常见消费品和服务的平均价格变动情况。数据显示，12月美国通胀同 比增速与11月持平。 不过，从环比数据来看，12月通胀增速由11月预估的0.1%加快至0.3%。 但需要注意的是，11月的通胀报告在诸多方面存在异常 —— 由于美国政府此前经历了长达43天的停 摆，当年10月和11月的通胀数据收集工作受到了不利影响，这也使得此前发布的消费者价格指数报告所 呈现的通胀降温幅度被夸大。 在12月就业报告反映劳动力市场略有走弱但仍保持稳定（这可能促使美联储暂缓降息）后，市场目光聚 焦CPI数据。 周二早间公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告更全面地反映了去年秋季美国政府长期停摆造成的物价波 动。 美国劳工统计局（BLS）周二发布 ...

专题：美12月核心CPI同比增2.6%，低于预期 随着政府停摆导致11月通胀率被人为压低的一些扭曲因素逐渐消退，美国12月消费者物价上涨，受房租 和食品价格攀升带动，这巩固了美联储本月将维持利率不变的预期。 不过，今年降息的可能性仍然存在。劳工部周二的报告显示，12月核心通胀压力温和，经济学家认为这 暗示进口关税对价格的传导正在放缓。经济学家们对通胀是否已经见顶的看法不一。 尽管如此，食品和房租更加昂贵（价格涨幅为三年多来最大）凸显了特朗普总统面临的负担能力危机， 经济学家将这部分归咎于白宫的政策，包括全面进口关税。 特朗普提出了一系列降低生活成本的提案，包括禁止机构投资者购买独户住宅，以及指示负责监管抵押 贷款融资巨头房利美和房贷美的联邦住房金融局（FHFA）购买这两家公司发行的2000亿美元债券，以 降低抵押贷款利率。 高通胀削弱了消费者信心和特朗普的支持率，并将成为今年的政治热点，特朗普和他的共和党同僚们正 在为保住美国国会的控制权而努力。与投资者因通胀步伐温和而欢欣鼓舞相比，消费者可能更关心食品 价格和房租上涨。 "家庭可能不会密切追踪核心通胀，但他们会立即看到杂货价格和餐馆就餐价格，"洛约拉玛丽蒙特 ...

Core Insights - The December core CPI growth rate was below Wall Street expectations, marking the lowest year-on-year growth in nearly five years, indicating a potential easing of price pressures [1][5] - Market analysts believe that while this data provides a clearer signal of declining inflation, it is insufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the upcoming meeting [3][7] Inflation Data Summary - The December core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the consensus expectation of 0.3%, and year-on-year growth was 2.6%, matching the lowest level since March 2021 [5] - The overall CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with economists' forecasts [5] - Housing costs were the largest contributor to the overall CPI increase, rising by 0.4% month-on-month, the highest increase in four months [5] Price Trends - Declines in automobile and furniture prices helped offset the rise in housing costs, with used car prices dropping by 1.1% month-on-month [6] - Food prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month, the largest rise since 2022, while recreational prices surged by 1.2%, marking a record high [6] - Core goods prices remained stagnant, indicating that tariff impacts on consumers were milder than expected [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming January meeting, with market expectations for a rate hold exceeding 97% [4][7] - There is a need for more evidence of a weakening labor market or declining price pressures before the Fed considers rate cuts [3][7] - The "super core" CPI, which excludes housing and energy costs, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year rate of 2.7%, down from approximately 4% a year ago [8]

| 纳斯达克综合指数(NASDAQ:.IXIC) | | | | 加目选 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 23681.71 -52.19 -0.22% | | | 交易中 01-13 10:57:51 美东时间 | 35.10 万球友关注 | | 最高: 23813.30 | 今开: 23735.12 | 52周最高: 24019.99 | 量比: 1.80 | | | 最低:23607.59 | 昨收:23733.90 | 52周最低: 14784.03 | 振幅:0.87% | | | 成交量: 34.50亿股 | | | | | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 季K 年K 120分 60分 30分 15分 5分 1分 | | | 区间统计 全屏显示 | | | 最新:23681.85 -52.05 -0.22% | | | | | | 23860.22 | | | | 0.53% | | 23828.64 | | | | 0.40% | | 23797.06 | | | | 0.27% | | | | | | 0.13% | | | | | | 0.00% | ...

Core Insights - The core consumer price index (CPI) for December in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, matching November's figure and aligning with market expectations [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.6% year-on-year, which was below the anticipated 2.7%, and increased by 0.2% month-on-month, also lower than the expected 0.3% [4] - The Federal Reserve's inflation target is set at 2%, and the report indicates that inflation is trending downwards but remains at a relatively high level [7] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, U.S. stock futures turned positive, and Treasury yields decreased. Spot gold rose by 0.77% to $4632.5 per ounce, while silver increased by 4.53% to $88.958 per ounce [8] Key Contributors to Inflation - Housing costs were the largest single contributor to inflation, rising by 0.4% in December and accounting for over one-third of the CPI weight, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [10] - Other areas of price increases included food prices, which rose by 0.7%, and entertainment, airfare, and healthcare costs. However, egg prices fell by 8.2%, down nearly 21% year-on-year [11] Market Expectations for Interest Rates - Traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates as early as April, with a probability of 42% for a rate cut, up from 38% prior to the data release. June remains the most likely timeframe for a rate cut [11] - The Chief Investment Officer of Reagan Capital noted that while inflation is still relatively high, it is on a downward trend, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious stance at least until spring [11]

Group 1 - The commodity market experienced a broad increase, with spot gold and silver prices reaching historical highs, while both WTI and Brent crude oil saw significant gains [1] - Spot gold peaked at $4634.58 per ounce, and spot silver surged over 4%, surpassing the $89 per ounce mark. COMEX silver also hit a new high of $89.215 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month's increase but exceeding market expectations [4] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and showed a year-on-year growth of 2.6% before seasonal adjustments [4] - Following the CPI data release, traders increased bets on an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in April rising to approximately 42% from 38% prior to the data [4] - However, market analysts believe that the CPI data is not sufficient to prompt an immediate rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as officials may seek more evidence of stabilizing inflation before making a decision [4] Group 3 - President Trump announced that any country conducting business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on any commercial dealings with the U.S., stating this decision is "final" and "effective immediately" [5]

2025年12月，美国未季调CPI年率2.7%，预期2.7%，前值2.7%；季调后CPI月率0.3%，预期0.3%。美国 未季调核心CPI年率2.6%，预期2.7%，前值2.6%；季调后核心CPI月率0.2%，预期0.3%。 尽管交易员们仍认为，6月降息是最可能的结果，但利率期货市场定价显示，美联储4月降息的概率约为 42%，高于通胀数据发布前的38%。 纽约联储总裁约翰·威廉姆斯称，尽管当前通胀受关税等因素影响有所上行，但潜在趋势有利，并未出 现广泛的物价压力。他预计，通胀率可能在2026年上半年达到峰值，随后逐渐放缓，并有望在2027年回 落至2%的目标水平。关税对通胀的影响预计将在2026年开始减弱。抛开这一暂时性因素，通胀趋势总 体向好。 威廉姆斯还表示，当前美国劳动力市场并未出现快速恶化迹象，预计今年将趋于稳定并逐步走强。他同 时指出，随着通胀风险减弱，就业市场面临的下行风险正在上升。他强调，美联储必须在控制通胀的同 时，避免对就业造成过度冲击。 新华财经北京1月13日电美国劳工部周二公布的数据显示，2025年12月通胀总体温和。核心通胀略低于 预期，交易员们加大了美联储降息押注，美元指数短线下跌。 ...

据路透社1月7日报道，克罗地亚中央统计局1月7日初步数据显示，2025年12月消费者价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨3.3%，较11月的3.8%明显放缓，为全年最低水平之一。全年平均通胀率为3.7%。分项 来看，服务业通胀最高（+6.3%），能源上涨3.9%，食品、饮料和烟草类上涨3.1%，而工业非食品类商 品仅微涨0.1%。环比方面，服务价格上涨0.3%，其余三大类均下降约0.7%–0.8%。 （原标题：克罗地亚12月通胀显著回落至3.3%，全年通胀率为3.7%） 欧盟统计局同日发布的协调通胀指数（HICP）显示克罗地亚12月通胀为3.8%，略高于克统计局数 据。在欧元区，克罗地亚通胀排名第四，仅次于斯洛伐克和爱沙尼亚（均为4.1%）及奥地利 （3.9%），高于欧元区平均2%的水平。 ...

Group 1 - The latest inflation report indicates that the core CPI in the U.S. rose by 2.6% year-on-year, which is lower than expected, failing to change market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts [1][2][3] - The three major U.S. stock indices remained flat, with the S&P 500 hovering around 6,980 points, reflecting a temporary easing of price pressures that calmed investor sentiment [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has cut rates three times since September of the previous year, and the market predicts the next rate cut will not occur until mid-2026, with no cuts expected at the end of this month [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts from Principal Asset Management and eToro suggest that the lower-than-expected core CPI data is unlikely to alter the decision-making logic for the Federal Reserve's January meeting, given the low unemployment rate and higher-than-trend economic growth [3] - The inflation report, released after the government shutdown, provided much-needed macroeconomic information to the market, although its impact on stock investors is expected to be limited as attention shifts to the upcoming earnings season [3] - The earnings season for the banking sector has commenced, with major banks such as Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley set to report their earnings on Wednesday and Thursday [2][3]

Group 1 - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, both figures below market expectations by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a continued cooling of inflation [1][15][20] - The overall CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, aligning perfectly with Dow Jones consensus expectations, suggesting that inflation is gradually approaching the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [2][16][20] - Housing prices, a key component of core inflation, increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the overall inflation rise [5][19] Group 2 - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, although egg prices fell by 8.2% month-on-month and nearly 21% year-on-year, following a previous surge [7][21] - Energy prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year, while gasoline prices decreased by 0.5% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year [8][22] - The entertainment price index surged by 1.2% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase since 1993 [12][26] Group 3 - The report indicates that some categories, particularly goods, are showing signs of deflation, with used car and truck prices down by 1.1% month-on-month and communication prices down by 1.9% [12][26] - Actual wages for American citizens remained flat month-on-month but increased by 1.1% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of the December price increases [13][27]