日本央行：如果经济和物价展望实现，将会加息。 2025和2026财年经济面临下行风险。 日本的贸易政策出现积极进展，需要监控贸易政策对财政体系的冲击。 利率决议是一致通过的。 需要留意前景展望出现巨大变化的可能。 通胀预期已经温和上升。 日本实际利率处于极低水平。 物价趋势将与下半年的展望目标相一致。 物价风险大体平衡。 贸易和其他政策如何演变依旧高度不确定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate, with a potential increase of at least 25 basis points by the end of the year, influenced by the US-Japan trade agreement and domestic political conditions. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Reuters survey indicates the Bank of Japan is likely to keep rates unchanged, with no rate hike expected in September, but a minimum increase of 25 basis points by year-end [1] - Capital Economics anticipates the Bank of Japan will maintain rates, possibly restarting the rate hike cycle in October, as the trade agreement mitigates key risks [1] - Dutch Bank predicts the Bank of Japan will hold rates steady and positively assess the trade agreement, with October being a potential time for a rate hike [1] - HSBC forecasts the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged, with the trade agreement potentially guiding monetary policy back to normal, leading to a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% in October [1] - Credit Agricole expects the Bank of Japan to maintain rates, with the next hike possibly occurring next year if the new government implements aggressive fiscal policies [1] - Citigroup believes the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged, with the trade agreement paving the way for an earlier-than-expected rate hike [1] - Bank of America anticipates the Bank of Japan will maintain rates, but may adjust its policy tone due to reduced trade uncertainties [1] - Mitsubishi UFJ predicts the Bank of Japan will hold rates steady while raising the core CPI forecast for FY2025, with a 25 basis point increase expected in January [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Political Factors - Nomura Securities suggests the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged, with the trade agreement opening the door for an October rate hike, although the market may be overestimating the risks from the leadership change in the ruling party [2] - Mizuho Bank expects the Bank of Japan to maintain rates, with a 25 basis point increase in October, potentially being the last hike as the government may not favor rates rising to 1% [2] - Allianz Global anticipates the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged without strong policy guidance, focusing on the assessment of changing risk environments by Governor Ueda [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve meeting witnessed a dramatic split with two dissenting votes from Bowman and Waller, causing significant turmoil in global financial markets as they opposed the anticipated interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Key Players and Their Positions - Bowman, representing the aggressive rate hike faction, advocates for an immediate 50 basis point increase to combat persistent inflation, particularly in housing and services, which have seen year-on-year increases exceeding 6% [2] - Waller, leading the hawkish faction, supports pausing rate hikes but insists on removing any language suggesting potential rate cuts, thereby shattering market expectations for easing [2] - Powell and the majority of committee members represent the status quo, opting for a compromise by pausing rate hikes while keeping the option open for future increases, hinting that rate cuts will depend on sustained declines in inflation [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the dissenting votes, the US dollar index surged by 1.5%, reaching a three-month high, indicating that internal divisions within the Fed lead to a stronger dollar as a safe haven [3] - Gold prices plummeted by $40, falling below the $1900 mark, reflecting the market's reaction to heightened expectations of aggressive rate hikes [3] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 22 basis points, signaling that the bond market anticipates continued monetary tightening [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Signals - Investors are advised to closely monitor the "Bowman Indicator," specifically the US services CPI, as a reading above 5% for three consecutive months could trigger renewed fears of rate hikes [5] - Understanding Waller's rhetoric is crucial; phrases like "data-dependent" may indicate readiness for rate hikes, while "cautious approach" suggests no rate cuts are forthcoming [6] - A suggested investment strategy includes a portfolio allocation of 70% in cash, 15% in energy stocks, and 15% in volatility hedging tools to navigate the current market uncertainty [6] Group 4: Potential Risks and Future Outlook - The looming risk of a technical default arises if the debt ceiling is not resolved before October, compounded by Bowman and Waller's resistance to easing [6] - The commercial real estate sector faces significant challenges with record vacancy rates and high-interest rates potentially leading to loan defaults, which could trigger a regional banking crisis [6] - A sudden OPEC+ production cut could reignite inflation, bolstering support for the Bowman faction and forcing the Fed to make difficult decisions that could impact the stock market [6]

日本央行周四或维持利率不变。美日贸易不确定性改善背景下，市场加息预期升温，10月成为下次加息热门时点。 彭博调查显示，受访的56位经济学家一致预期，日本央行将在本周的货币政策会议上，维持利率0.5%不变。经济学家们预计，央行季度经济展望报告中可 能会上调本财年的通胀预测。 本次会议的主要焦点是日本央行何时再次加息。知情人士此前表示，日本央行官员认为，在美日贸易协议消除了关键的不确定性因素后，可以考虑再次加 息。 市场定价显示，目前交易员目前预计，年底前加息的可能性约为80%，10月作为下次加息的潜在时间点正变得越来越受欢迎。 美日贸易协议不确定性显著降低 美日贸易协议是本次央行会议的关键变量。 据央视新闻，美日此前就关税问题达成一致。根据协议，美国将对包括汽车在内的日本商品统一征收15%的关税，低于此前适用于全球汽车进口的25%税 率。作为交换，日本承诺设立一个规模高达5500亿美元的基金，用于对美直接投资。 协议将对日大部分关税设定为15%，特别是汽车关税从特朗普4月份征收的25%降至15%，这为日本经济核心部门提供了重要缓解。 美日关税协定达成后，市场对日本央行加息的预期大幅反弹。 野村统计显示，截至7月 ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本央行将于本周四公布利率决议和经济前景展望报告。市场普遍预计日本央行将 基准利率维持在0.5%不变，并可能会上调本财年的通胀预测。在美日贸易协议减少一些不确定性后， 投资者正在寻找今年再次加息的迹象。 本次会议的主要焦点将是日本央行今年是否会再次加息。目前市场预计年底前加息的可能性约为75%。 据知情人士此前透露，在日美贸易协议消除了一个关键的不确定性因素后，日本央行官员有可能考虑再 次加息。 由于仍需评估关税的实际影响，日本央行目前不会考虑突然加息。日本央行副行长内田真一上周表示， 尽管该协议是一个重大突破，但不确定性仍然很高。 不过，市场对日本央行再次加息的预期升温，10月成为下一次加息的潜在时间点。上周，德意志银行证 券和巴克莱证券均将加息预期提前至10 月。 美国和日本于7月22日意外达成贸易协议，将大部分关税定为15%。此前，欧盟和美国也达成了类似的 协议，缓解了人们对全球经济的担忧。 知情人士透露，日本央行官员认为此次谈判的结果大致符合预期，因此可能无需对日本央行的整体经济 展望做出重大调整。 日本央行在4月份的展望报告中表示，由于关税的影响，经济增长预计会暂时停滞，之后会有 ...

日本央行料维持利率不变 可能调高物价展望 金十数据7月30日讯，机构分析预计日本央行周四将维持基准利率不变，并上调通胀预期。在美日贸易 协议减少了一些不确定性后，投资者正在寻找今年再次加息的迹象。这次会议的主要焦点将是日本央行 在多大程度上发出今年再次加息的信号，交易员目前认为年底前加息的可能性约为75%。知情人士早些 时候表示，日本央行官员认为，在日美贸易协议消除了一个关键的不确定性来源之后，日本央行有可能 考虑再次加息。不过由于辨别关税实际影响的关键任务仍然存在，日本央行目前不会考虑突然加息。尽 管如此，寻找日本央行加息暗示的势头正在逐渐增强，10月作为下一次加息的潜在时机的观点越来越受 市场欢迎。 ...

三得利控股株式会社社长、日本经济同友会会长新浪刚史表示，日本央行应该在本周的政策委员会会议 上加息，否则将削弱日元并加剧通货膨胀。新浪刚史周二在新闻发布会上代表颇具影响力的日本经济同 友会表示，如果日本央行在应对经济形势变化方面落后，"那将是行长的责任"。日本企业高管直接呼吁 央行行长植田和男采取行动属罕见。（彭博） ...

Core Viewpoint - The former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Nakaso, suggests that the Bank of Japan may resume interest rate hikes as confidence in the economy and inflation meeting expectations recovers [1] Group 1 - Nakaso indicates a potential shift in monetary policy as the economic outlook improves [1] - The restoration of confidence in inflation expectations is a key factor for the Bank of Japan's decision-making [1] - The possibility of interest rate increases reflects a broader trend in central banking as economies recover [1]

日本央行周四预计将维持利率不变，但在美日上周达成贸易协议后，该央行可能对经济前景给出不那么 悲观的评估，暗示今年晚些时候可能重启加息。 随着上周日美国与欧盟达成协议，全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解，这让日本央行政策制定者对该国出口 导向型经济的前景更感宽慰。 但分析师也表示，日本央行可能会警告，美国关税对企业活动的影响仍存在不确定性，预计今年晚些时 候出口所受冲击将加剧。 他们表示，委员会还可能会维持一些原有观点，包括通胀将在截至2027财年的三年预测期后半段持续达 到2%的目标。 在5月1日发布的当前预测中，日本央行预计2025财年核心消费者通胀率将达到2.2%，2026财年放缓至 1.7%，2027财年为1.9%。 根据日本上周与特朗普达成的贸易协议，美国降低了对日本主力产品（包括汽车）的进口关税，这缓解 了依赖出口的日本经济的压力，也为日本央行进一步加息扫清了一个关键障碍。 市场正聚焦日本央行的季度展望报告，以及行长植田和男（Kazuo Ueda）会后的新闻发布会，以寻找 下次加息时机的线索。 路透社在美日贸易协议公布前进行的调查显示，多数经济学家预计日本央行将在年底前再次加息。 消息人士表示，在季度报告中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Due to the passage of the US stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in gold and other assets, the Trump administration's pressure on Powell increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, and unresolved geopolitical risks, the downside space for precious metal prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] Summary by Relevant Data Gold - **Futures Market**: Shanghai gold futures active contract closing price was 777.32 on 2025 - 07 - 21, 778.74 on 2025 - 07 - 25, 781.70 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of - 4.38 compared to a certain reference. Volume decreased from 331217.00 to 216188.00, and open interest decreased by 1605. Inventory (in ten - grams) increased from 29358.00 to 30258.00. COMEX futures active contract closing price was 9392.00 on one date, 9386.00 on another, and 9271.00 on a third, with a change of 6.00. Volume decreased from 1253182.00 to 742060.00, and open interest decreased by 16707. Inventory (in troy ounces) decreased from 37762393.92 to 37143884.29 [1] - **Spot Market**: Shanghai gold spot closing price was 773.61, with a change of - 3.39 compared to a reference. Spot - futures basis was - 3.71 on one date, - 3.64 on another, and - 4.70 on a third, with a change of - 0.07. London gold spot price was 3343.50, 3365.85, and 3318.50 on different dates, with a change of 25.00. SPDR gold ETF holding was 957.09, and iShare gold ETF holding was 449.60 [1] Silver - **Futures Market**: Shanghai silver futures active contract closing price was 9392.00 on one date, 9386.00 on another, and 9271.00 on a third, with a change of 6.00. Volume decreased from 1253182.00 to 742060.00, and open interest decreased by 16707. Inventory (in ten - grams) decreased from 1188721.00 to 1204466.00. COMEX futures active contract closing price was 38.33, 39.29, and 38.44 on different dates, with a change of - 0.11. Volume decreased from 23117.00 to 17478.00, and open interest decreased by 1072. Inventory (in troy ounces) decreased from 3632208.40 to 497804173.90 [1] - **Spot Market**: Shanghai silver spot closing price was 146.00, 9372.00, 9351.00, and 9226.00 on different dates, with a change of 21.00. Spot - futures basis was - 35.00 on one date, 25.00 on another, and - 20.00 on a third, with a change of - 0.07. London silver spot price was 38.74, 39.03, and 37.76 on different dates, with a change of - 0.29. US iShare silver ETF holding was 15230.43, and Canadian PSLV silver ETF holding was 6040.98 [1] Price Ratios - The ratio of Shanghai gold spot price to Shanghai silver spot price was 82.97, 84.32, and 82.76 on different dates, with a change of - 1.55. The ratio of New York gold futures price to New York silver futures price was 87.11, 85.82, and 87.04 on different dates, with a change of 0.07. The ratio of London gold spot price to London silver spot price was 86.32, 86.25, and 87.90 on different dates, with a change of - 1.58 [1] Other Commodities - INE crude oil price was 512.90, 4.00, and 508.90 on different dates, with a change of - 3.90. ICE Brent crude oil price was - 2.05, 68.53, and 67.60 on different dates, with a change of - 0.93. NYMEX crude oil price was 65.07, 66.16, and 66.31 on different dates, with a change of - 1.09. Shanghai copper futures price was 79250.00, 79890.00, and 79700.00 on different dates, with a change of - 450.00. LME copper spot price was 9867.00, - 58.50, and 9796.00 on different dates, with a change of - 71.00. Shanghai rebar price was 3356.00, 3294.00, and 3224.00 on different dates, with a change of 62.00. Dalian iron ore price was 802.50, 811.00, and 809.00 on different dates, with a change of - 8.50 [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Shanghai inter - bank offered rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.52, 1.37, and 1.64 on different dates, with a change of - 0.12. SHIBOR one - year was 1.63, 1.62, and 1.64 on different dates, with a change of 0.01. US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.4300, 4.4000, and 4.4700 on different dates, with a change of - 0.03. US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.0400, - 0.02, and 1.9800 on different dates, with a change of - 0.08. US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate was 2.4400, 2.4500, and 2.4300 on different dates, with a change of - 0.01. US dollar index was 97.6701, 97.4884, and 98.6419 on different dates, with a change of - 0.97. US dollar - RMB central parity rate was 7.1385, 7.1419, and 7.1522 on different dates, with a change of 0.00. Euro - RMB central parity rate was 8.4077, 8.3228, and 8.4001 on different dates, with a change of - 0.01 [1] Stock Indices - Shanghai Composite Index was 3593.6553, - 12.07, and 3605.7269 on different dates, with a change of 33.86. S&P 500 was 6363.3500, 6388.6400, and 6297.3600 on different dates, with a change of 25.29. UK FTSE 100 was 9120.3100, 9138.3700, and 8972.6400 on different dates, with a change of 147.67. French CAC40 was 7818.2800, 7834.5800, and 7822.0000 on different dates, with a change of 16.30. German DAX was 24217.5000, 24295.9300, and 24370.9300 on different dates, with a change of - 78.43. Nikkei 225 was 41456.2300, 41826.3400, and 39901.1900 on different dates, with a change of - 370.11. South Korean Composite Index was 3192.2900, 3.76, and 3196.0500 on different dates, with a change of 5.60 [1] Important Information - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff trade agreement, with Trump stating that the EU would increase investment in the US by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of energy products [1] - After the Japan - US agreement, the Bank of Japan may restart interest rate hikes within the year. There are different views on the " $550 billion investment" [1] - The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in gold and digital currencies. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US consumer - end inflation annual rate in June. The initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected. The probability of a Fed rate cut in August increased, but the probability in February decreased [1] - The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France continued to rise in July. The eurozone (Germany) consumer price index annual rate in June was 2% (2%), meeting expectations but higher than the previous value. The market expects the ECB to cut rates about once before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May, continuing to reduce government bond holdings from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK consumer price index annual rate in June was 3.68% (3.7%), higher than expected. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected. The expectation of a rate cut by the Bank of England in August increased, and it may cut rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% in January and may start reducing quarterly government bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The core consumer price index annual rate in Japan (Tokyo) in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), meeting expectations but lower than the previous value. There is still an expectation of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan before the end of 2025 [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the above factors, the downside space for precious metal prices may be limited. Investors are recommended to mainly lay out long positions on dips. The support and resistance levels for London gold are around 3150 - 3250 and 3600 - 3700 respectively, for Shanghai gold around 730 - 760 and 800 - 850, for London silver around 35 - 37 and around 40 - 48, and for Shanghai silver around 8600 - 9000 and 9500 - 10000 [1]