专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 广发证券刘晨明：A股盈利研判框架生变，海外因素与新兴产业成明年关键 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典在上海隆重举行。逾300名 权威学者、公私募掌舵人、上市公司董事长、顶级基金经理、首席分析师齐聚一堂，共同探讨中国资本 市场的未来机遇。 在备受关注的颁奖环节，广发证券研究团队（首席分析师：刘晨明）荣获第七届新浪财经金麒麟策略研 究最佳分析师第一名。这是刘晨明转战广发证券后，连续第二年稳居策略研究榜首。 在本次分析师大会上，刘晨明分享了其对A股市场的最新观点。他指出，在经历近两年的估值提升后， 明年的企业盈利基本面将至关重要，并强调A股的盈利研判框架正发生重要变化，需更加关注海外收入 与新兴产业。这意味着对于我们策略研判框架，包括盈利研判框架有很大的调整，这时需要更多关注海 外部分，包括新兴产业。"刘晨明总结道。 刘晨明指出了一个"来之不易"的积极信号：在传统内需型ROE下行的背景下，A股整体ROE在连续16个 季度下滑后，已连续3个季度企稳回升。他认为，这标志着基本面出现了关键性的好转。 刘晨明对明年盈利基本面做出展 ...

Group 1 - The capital market has experienced a steady upward structural trend over the past six months, with companies benefiting from external demand showing outstanding stock performance [1] - Since April, manufacturing sentiment has declined due to external environmental fluctuations and adjustments in the domestic real estate market, but the long-term positive economic trend remains unchanged [1] - The domestic economy is characterized by a large scale and strong resilience, with domestic demand gradually becoming the main driver of economic growth, supported by improving fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significant achievements in high-quality development, with economic growth maintained within a reasonable range and an increase in total factor productivity [2] - The plan highlights the strategic importance of domestic demand-driven growth and the unique advantages of China's super-large market [2] - The focus on enhancing self-reliance in technology and fostering emerging industries, particularly in sectors like new energy, new materials, and aerospace, is crucial for long-term investment opportunities [2]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 估值周观察(11月第5期) 科技主导"反弹周" 策略研究 · 专题报告 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 近一周（2025.11.24-2025.11.28）海外市场普遍反弹，估值随股价修复。美股领涨，主要指数均上涨3%以上，其中纳斯达克100涨幅 最显著（+4.93%）。欧元区中，德国表现突出；亚洲市场整体温和上涨，恒生科技和日经225涨幅超3%，估值随股价修复。除道琼斯 工业指数，美股主要指数PE扩张均超过1x；纳斯达克、日经225、韩国综合指数、恒生科技PE扩张幅度超过2x。从估值分位数看，标 普500和法国CAC40位于历史较高水平，印度SENSEX30和恒生科技指数处于较低区间。 • 近一周(2025.11.24-2025.11.28)，A ...

Core Insights - The "Suggestions" document outlines China's economic and social development blueprint for the next five years, focusing on structural changes in the employment market driven by industrial upgrades, technological transformations, and demographic shifts [3] Emerging Industries - The document emphasizes the cultivation of emerging industries, including new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, which are expected to create new job opportunities across the entire industrial chain [7][8] - The low-altitude economy alone is projected to have a talent gap of 1 million for drone operators by 2030, with the market expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan [7][8] Digital Economy - The rise of AI and digital technologies is transforming traditional jobs while creating high-value new roles, with over 20 new occupations related to AI identified in the past five years [13][14] - The AI industry is projected to grow significantly, with job postings increasing by 3% and job seekers by 39% in the first three quarters of 2025 [14] Service Sector - The service sector is expected to absorb more labor due to rising demands in health, elderly care, and childcare services, with the elderly care industry seeing a job growth rate of 29.2% [15][17] - The document highlights the need for professionalization and standardization in the service industry to enhance consumer experience and attract more employment [17] Flexible Employment - The number of flexible employment workers has reached 84 million, with various new job forms emerging to meet diverse labor needs [24][25] - The document calls for improved social security systems and protections for flexible workers to ensure their rights and benefits [25] Cross-Border Employment - The document outlines the expansion of high-level openness, with cross-border e-commerce becoming one of the fastest-growing employment sectors, creating diverse job opportunities [28][30] - By 2030, the cross-border e-commerce market is expected to create approximately 45 million jobs, with over 30% of these positions going to recent graduates [28] Rural Revitalization - New farmers and entrepreneurs are driving innovation in rural areas, with policies aimed at modernizing agriculture and promoting rural employment [33][34] - The document emphasizes the importance of attracting talent to rural areas to enhance local economies and job opportunities [34] Cultural Industry - The cultural industry is rapidly evolving, with a high demand for talent that combines cultural knowledge and technical skills, particularly in digital cultural sectors [37][38] - By 2030, the demand for virtual reality professionals is expected to exceed 6.8 million positions, reflecting the industry's growth [38] Aging Population - The aging population is creating a significant demand for elderly care services, with a projected shortfall of 5.5 million caregivers [42][43] - The document highlights the need for a robust elderly care system and the development of specialized training programs to meet this demand [43] Green Jobs - The green economy is expected to generate numerous new jobs, with the demand for roles like energy storage operation managers projected to exceed 100,000 by 2030 [45][46] - The document emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary talent in the green sector, which is anticipated to double in size over the next five years [46] Regional Employment - The document outlines strategies for regional development to balance employment opportunities across different areas, moving from a focus on major cities to a more distributed model [49][50] - The emphasis on new urbanization strategies aims to create job clusters in county-level cities, enhancing local employment prospects [51]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of optimizing China's economic structure through the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, which is essential for building a modern industrial system [1][2]. Group 1: New Quality Productivity - New quality productivity is defined as an advanced state of productivity that aligns with new development concepts, essential for both the cultivation of emerging industries and the upgrading of traditional industries [1]. - Traditional industries account for approximately 80% of key manufacturing indicators such as value added and employment, highlighting their critical role in economic growth and job creation [1]. Group 2: Regional Development Strategies - Development strategies must be tailored to local conditions, leveraging regional comparative advantages to avoid ineffective blind pursuit of emerging industries [2]. - Different regions should adopt varied strategies based on their resource endowments, industrial foundations, and stages of development to achieve a smooth transition between old and new driving forces [2]. Group 3: Upgrading Traditional Industries - The direction for upgrading traditional industries includes high-end, intelligent, and green transformations, necessitating technological innovations to overcome existing bottlenecks [2]. - The integration of traditional industries with technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data is crucial for enhancing product value and achieving economic and ecological benefits [2]. Group 4: Innovation and Market Development - Accelerating the formation of suitable production relations for innovation is vital, which includes deepening reforms and building a unified national market to attract advanced production factors [3]. - Establishing regional technology innovation platforms is essential for promoting the application of research outcomes and enhancing market vitality through effective government and market interactions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for solidifying the foundation of China's modernization and achieving high-quality economic development, emphasizing the importance of the real economy and optimizing traditional industries [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Development Focus - The focus during the "14th Five-Year Plan" should be on the real economy, prioritizing the optimization and enhancement of traditional industries while fostering new productive forces and supporting emerging industries as future growth points [1][2]. - The plan categorizes industries into traditional, emerging, and future sectors, each requiring different approaches to develop new productive forces [2][3]. Group 2: Traditional Industries - Traditional industries still hold significant growth potential, accounting for 80% of China's manufacturing sector, and are essential for the foundation of the real economy [2][3]. - There is a need to address issues related to urbanization, rural migration, and high-quality development in real estate to unlock the potential of traditional industries [3]. Group 3: Financial Reforms - The proposal includes deepening zero-based budgeting reforms to optimize fiscal expenditure and enhance budget performance management, which is crucial for effective governance [4][5]. - Zero-based budgeting requires every expenditure to be justified anew, potentially leading to significant impacts on budget management if implemented effectively [5]. Group 4: Financial Support for Innovation - The plan emphasizes the development of various financial sectors, particularly technology finance, which is deemed strategically important for supporting innovation and the cultivation of new productive forces [6][7]. - There is a need for a shift towards direct financing to better match the risk characteristics of technological innovation, with capital market reforms facilitating this transition [6]. Group 5: Wealth Management - The growing middle-income group in China, exceeding 400 million people, necessitates professional wealth management to enhance asset value, highlighting the increasing importance of wealth management in the financial sector [7]. - Wealth management should be a key focus area in finance, promoting the conversion of savings into investments, benefiting both residents and the capital market [7].

Core Insights - The establishment of the Jianyang Jiazi Qianfan Fund marks a significant step in introducing long-term capital to support emerging industries in Jianyang, Sichuan [1][3] - The fund is part of a broader strategy to enhance the capital investment system in Jianyang, focusing on key industries such as aerospace, advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, new energy materials, and biomedicine [3] Group 1 - The Jianyang Jiazi Qianfan Fund has officially registered and is the first AIC fund established in Chengdu's county-level cities since the expansion of AIC pilot projects in September 2024 [1] - The fund is initiated by Sichuan Jianzhou Airport Xiongzhou Capital Investment Co., Ltd., in collaboration with Agricultural Bank of China Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd., and Chengdu Jiazi Capital Management Group Co., Ltd. [1] - The fund management is undertaken by Jiazi Industrial Fund Management Company, indicating a strong partnership among various financial entities [1] Group 2 - The fund aims to leverage the stable AIC funding and strong resource integration capabilities to support the development of a modern industrial system in Jianyang [3] - Jianyang is actively constructing a "1+1+N" industrial capital investment system, which includes one specialized capital investment company, one mother fund, and multiple sub-funds, targeting a fund cluster exceeding 10 billion [3] - The initiative is designed to attract high-quality projects and drive high-quality industrial development in the city [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly, with increased positions, spot premium, and weakened basis. The copper concentrate spot TC index remains at a low negative level, and the raw material supply is still tight. The supply of refined copper may converge, and downstream demand is temporarily weak. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line above the 0 - axis with a slightly converging red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,600 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,861 dollars/ton, up 88 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 0 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 199,582 lots, up 7,190 lots. The top 20 positions in Shanghai copper futures are - 27,472 lots, down 5,300 lots. The LME copper inventory is 155,025 tons, down 2,900 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 43,816 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,610 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,595 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 50.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 31.5 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 10 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 24.88 dollars/ton, up 23.82 dollars. The monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons; the weekly TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars/kiloton [2] Upstream Situation - The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 76,510 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 77,210 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan. The weekly processing fee for crude copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of refined copper is 1.204 million tons, down 62,000 tons; the monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 58,990 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,800 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 下游及应用 - The monthly output of copper products is 2.004 million tons, down 228,000 tons. The cumulative monthly grid infrastructure investment is 482.4 billion yuan, up 44.593 billion yuan. The cumulative monthly real estate development investment is 7,356.27 billion yuan, up 585.699 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177 million pieces, down 194,236.1 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 13.57%, down 0.86%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.42%, up 0.03%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.14%, down 0.0053%; the at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.18, down 0.0271 [2] Industry News - Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut in December due to the weak labor market; San Francisco Fed President Daly supports a rate cut next month. As of the end of October, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity is 3.75 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology initiates the creation of national emerging industry development demonstration bases. In the first three quarters, China's full - industry outward direct investment increased by 4.4%. The central bank will conduct 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations on November 25, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core View - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a situation of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly weakened demand affected by the off - season. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of converging supply and slightly reduced demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum was 21,465 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 2,727 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,705 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2] - The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 80 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of alumina was - 63 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy was - 130 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] - The position of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 16,320 hands to 271,763 hands; the position of the main contract of alumina increased by 1,416 hands to 390,129 hands; the position of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 764 hands to 10,428 hands [2] - LME aluminum's three - month quotation was 2,813 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,050 tons to 545,950 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased by 8,782 hands to 17,434 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.63, up 0.02 [2] Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,440 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 21,330 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 32.80 US dollars/ton, down 1.93 US dollars [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 645 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was 43 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the current month was 786.50 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the national alumina utilization rate was 86.96%, down 1.31 percentage points; the national alumina demand (electrolytic aluminum part) in the current month was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 16,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments increased by 2,945.61 tons to 158,360.01 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments decreased by 36.08 tons to 32.46 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina in the current month was 18.00 million tons, down 7.00 million tons; the import volume of alumina in the current month was 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum increased by 4,462 tons to 248,261.37 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum decreased by 4,396.36 tons to 24,573.56 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.20 million tons, and the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12 percentage points [2] - The production of aluminum products was 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.00 million tons, down 2.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 million tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2] - The production of aluminum alloy was 168.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of automobiles was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.49%, down 0.58 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 10.39%, unchanged [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 9.81%, down 0.0045 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.52, up 0.099 [2] Industry News - Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut in December; San Francisco Fed President Daly supports a rate cut next month [2] - As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%, including solar power and wind power with significant growth [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the creation of national emerging industry development demonstration bases [2] - In the first three quarters of this year, China's full - industry foreign direct investment was 923.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [2] - The central bank will conduct a 1 - trillion - yuan MLF operation on November 25, with a net MLF investment of 100 billion yuan this month [2]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is expected to see structural opportunities by 2026, driven by policies and market conditions, with three main growth engines: new energy, electronics, and computing power [1] Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The construction materials index and fundamentals showed signs of recovery, with the SW construction materials index increasing by 21.37% from the beginning of the year to November 12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.30 percentage points [2] - Sub-industry performance was mixed, with the fiberglass manufacturing sector leading gains due to the AI computing power boom [2] - Despite a slight revenue decline of 5.74% year-on-year, the industry saw a significant profit improvement, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 21.46% [2] 2026 Outlook - Structural investment opportunities in the construction materials industry are expected to emerge due to intensified policy regulation and sustained high demand in emerging sectors [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to reshape the competitive landscape in traditional materials like cement and glass, improving supply-demand dynamics and gradually restoring industry profitability [3] - The growth of new energy, electronics, and computing sectors will benefit leading companies with technological barriers and production capabilities, particularly in high-performance fiberglass [3] - The demand for renovation and urban renewal in the real estate sector will favor consumer building material leaders with strong channel layouts, brands, and product quality [3] Sub-industry Outlook - **Cement**: Supply regulation effects are expected to improve profitability, with major projects supporting future demand and leading companies expanding into overseas markets [4] - **Fiberglass**: Continued high demand from the wind power and electric vehicle sectors is expected to support sales, with AI computing needs driving fiberglass demand [4] - **Consumer Building Materials**: Urban renewal is likely to boost demand for renovation and repair, while consumption upgrades will increase the demand for high-quality green materials [4] - **Glass**: Prices remain under pressure, but the "anti-involution" policy may help ease supply-demand imbalances [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three investment themes: 1. Traditional building materials benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, with recommended companies including Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement [4] 2. Emerging sectors with sustained high demand, recommending companies like China Jushi and China National Building Material [4] 3. Consumer building material leaders with strong retail channel layouts, recommending companies such as Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Sankeshu, and Tubao [4]