你见过钢铁是怎样炼成的吗？但你可能不知道，全球钢铁产业链背后，正在上演一场比炼钢更激烈的货币战争。当中国宣布暂停采购必和必拓铁矿石时，澳 大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯"破防"的反应背后，藏着怎样的惊天秘密？ 这次中方暂停的只是以美元计价的必和必拓铁矿石，已经到港的矿石仍可以人民币结算。这个微妙区别暴露了真实意图——中国要在大宗商品领域撕开美元 霸权的口子。 中俄铁矿石贸易已有45%采用人民币结算，巴西也开辟了人民币结算通道。一条全新的"钢铁丝绸之路"正在形成：俄罗斯的铁矿+巴西的港口+中国的人民币 支付系统。这条不需要航母护航的贸易路线，正悄悄改写全球资源贸易规则。 多元布局下的战略底气 中国敢对澳大利亚说"不"的底气，来自于日益完善的全球资源布局。俄罗斯290亿吨高品位铁矿、非洲新兴矿区、巴西淡水河谷的深度合作，构建了多元化 的供应网络。就像高手下棋，中国已经在全球资源棋盘上布下了多个活眼。 与此同时，国内废钢回收体系的完善、电弧炉炼钢技术的突破，让中国对进口铁矿的依赖度持续下降。这场博弈不再是简单的买方卖方关系，而是综合国力 的全面较量。 当铁矿石开始用人民币计价，美元就失去了最重要的支柱之一。中国这招"围点打援 ...

美股再创新高：繁荣的假象与残酷的现实 2025年10月8日，纽约股市再次刷新历史纪录——标普500指数上涨0.58%，收于6753.72点；纳斯达克指 数上涨1.12%，收于23043.38点。 这已经是美股在过去十八年里无数次"创新高"中的一次，以至于不少 中国股民羡慕不已，甚至有人将其视为"美国国力蒸蒸日上"的铁证。 然而， 股市的繁荣真的等于经济的繁荣吗？ 如果美国经济真的如股市表现那般强劲，为何民粹主义会席卷全美？为何特朗普这样的极右翼政客能卷 土重来？为何美国社会的撕裂程度比冷战时期还要严重？ 答案很简单：美股的繁荣，只是一场精心包 装的金融幻象，而非实体经济的真实写照。 一、美股的"疯牛"从何而来？ 要理解美股为何能持续上涨，我们必须回到2008年。 那一年，次贷危机爆发，华尔街濒临崩溃，美国政府慌了神，美联储随即祭出"量化宽松"（QE）这一 大招。 所谓QE，本质就是印钞机开足马力，让美联储凭空创造数万亿美元，再用来购买国债和金融资 产，向市场疯狂注水。 2020年疫情爆发后，美联储更是变本加厉，直接开启第四轮QE，至今其资产负债表仍高达7万亿美元。 这些钱，并没有流入实体经济，而是像洪水一样涌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent notification from China Mineral Resources Group to domestic buyers to suspend purchases of BHP's dollar-denominated iron ore shipments signifies a shift in iron ore pricing dynamics and China's intention to assert its influence in global commodity pricing [1][4][14]. Group 1: Company Overview - China Mineral Resources Group, established in 2022, acts as an "import coordinator" for Chinese companies, focusing on iron ore import pricing authority [4][5]. - The company aims to address the long-standing issue where China, despite being the largest buyer of iron ore globally, lacks pricing power, which has traditionally been held by sellers [4][5]. Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - The current international iron ore pricing is heavily influenced by the Platts Index, which tends to favor seller-friendly data from Australian and Brazilian mines, leading to unfavorable pricing for Chinese buyers [5][6]. - The suspension of purchases from BHP is not merely a punitive measure but a strategic move to encourage compliance with China's preferred pricing mechanisms, including a shift towards RMB settlements [5][11]. Group 3: Domestic Supply and Strategy - China has been increasing domestic iron ore production and enhancing scrap steel recycling, which can mitigate the impact of reduced imports from BHP [6][8]. - The strategy reflects a broader goal of reducing dependency on foreign suppliers and asserting control over pricing and supply chains [8][14]. Group 4: Broader Implications - This action is part of a larger strategy to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in global commodity transactions, particularly in iron ore and oil [10][11]. - By establishing pricing authority, China aims to pave the way for the internationalization of the RMB and reduce the dollar's monopoly in commodity settlements [11][14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The emergence of more institutions like China Mineral Resources Group is anticipated, which will support Chinese enterprises and protect national economic interests [12][14]. - The approach signifies a shift from passive acceptance to active negotiation in global trade, asserting China's rightful place in the international economic landscape [14].

俄罗斯石油交易中的人民币崛起：印度的"妥协" 根据路透社10月7日的独家报道，俄罗斯的石油贸易商近期要求印度的国有炼油厂使用人民币进行支付。这一变化，标志着人民币在国际贸易中日益增长 的影响力，尤其是在能源领域。 印度为何选择人民币？ 印度对俄罗斯石油的依赖，源自其极具吸引力的价格。2025年上半年，俄罗斯每天向印度供应约175万到180万桶原油，占印度原油进口的35%到40%。 2024年，印度全年从俄罗斯进口的石油价值超过470亿美元，几乎占据了印度原油进口的三分之一。相比之下，俄罗斯的原油价格比沙特便宜近10美元/ 桶，比美国便宜5美元以上。这个差价对于印度来说，具有不可忽视的经济吸引力。 印度的炼油厂通过将俄罗斯的原油转手卖给欧洲，获得了巨大的利润。仅凭这些差价，印度每年可以节省近170亿美元，这对于印度的经济来说无疑是"救 命钱"。 结算的混乱与困境 曾经，印度在石油结算时，常常使用美元、迪拉姆和人民币三种货币。但印度一直想避开人民币，选择使用迪拉姆作为"替代"，试图躲避美国的制裁，同 时避免与人民币过多接触。然而，俄罗斯并不接受这种安排。俄罗斯要求，所有的交易最终都要用人民币结算，因为只有人民币才 ...

路透社突然爆出消息，说印度国营石油巨头印度石油公司偷偷用人民币给俄罗斯付了油钱。 要知道，印度可是整整两年没这么干过了！ 莫迪这次的操作，简直像在钢丝上跳踢踏舞明明美国在旁边瞪着眼，他偏要往人民币的结算单上签字。 你说 他图啥？ 难道真是铁了心要跟美元霸权叫板？ 我先说个细节啊，俄罗斯这帮卖油的贸易商现在精得很，直接跟印度摊牌：要么用人民币结算，要么别买。 为啥非得是人民币？ 因为西方制裁把俄罗斯 堵得死死的，美元欧元都难用，唯独人民币能直接换成卢布，最终落到俄罗斯生产商口袋里。 俄罗斯人一边按美元定价石油（说是遵守欧盟价格上限），一边扭头对印度人说："来，付等值的人民币！ " 这操作简直像在超市标价用美元，结账却只 收零食币摆明了要绕开美国的金融雷达。 但你说印度就乖乖听话？ 哪有那么简单！ 其实2023年他们就试过用人民币买油，结果中途停了。 为啥停？ 还不是因为中印关系那时候僵得跟冻土豆似 的。 可今年风向变了，莫迪跑去天津参加上合峰会，中方热情接待，双方还签了《天津宣言》。 这一下子，政治气氛缓和了，人民币结算的闸门又悄悄打开 了。 所以你看，国际关系就像谈恋爱，昨天还冷战，今天就能一起喝茶算钱。 但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the global economic landscape due to the U.S.'s unilateral trade policies and the resulting shift in alliances, particularly in the agricultural sector, highlighting the challenges faced by American soybean farmers as traditional markets, especially China, withdraw from purchasing. Group 1: Unilateral Tariffs and Economic Impact - The Trump administration's return to power marked a shift towards a resource-extraction model, using tariffs as a tool against both adversaries and allies, which has led to economic pressures domestically [3][5] - The U.S. GDP experienced a 0.3% decline in Q1 2025, marking its first contraction in three years, largely attributed to a 4.83 percentage point drop in net exports due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy [5] - Yale University research indicates that full implementation of tariff policies could raise prices by 2.3%, increasing annual household spending by nearly $3,800, contradicting claims that tariffs protect the economy [5] Group 2: Dollar Dominance and Global Economic Dynamics - The U.S. dollar's dominance allows the U.S. to leverage global economic benefits, as most commodities are traded in dollars, giving the U.S. significant influence in the financial system [7] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with projections indicating that by 2027, public debt could exceed 106% of GDP, breaking records set in 1946 [9] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes lead to capital returning to the U.S., putting pressure on emerging economies through currency devaluation and capital outflows [9] Group 3: Agricultural Sector Challenges - The U.S. government may need to allocate an additional $10 to $14 billion in agricultural subsidies to prevent widespread farm bankruptcies, as China, a major buyer of U.S. soybeans, has ceased orders [11][13] - In the first eight months of 2025, China purchased only about 20 million bushels of U.S. soybeans, less than one-fifth of the previous year's volume [13] - American farmers are seeking alternative markets in Southeast Asia and Africa, but these markets are smaller and less lucrative compared to China [13] Group 4: Global Response and Trade Reconfiguration - Countries are increasingly seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar for trade, with the internationalization of the yuan gaining momentum, particularly in energy transactions [15][17] - Australia has begun using the yuan for iron ore transactions, reflecting a shift away from dollar dependency, while Southeast Asian nations are also exploring direct currency settlements with China [17] - Traditional U.S. allies are reassessing their economic ties, with Germany's Hamburg port seeing a 11.3% increase in container throughput with China, while shipments to the U.S. dropped by 19% [19][21] Group 5: Structural Economic Issues in the U.S. - The U.S. economy suffers from structural imbalances, characterized by high consumption, high debt, and low savings, leading to a reliance on imports and a hollowing out of domestic manufacturing [23][25] - The U.S. has seen a significant shift towards a virtual economy, with financial assets expanding excessively, while the focus on short-term gains detracts from long-term industrial health [25] - In contrast, China is transitioning to a growth model driven by domestic demand and innovation, reducing its reliance on exports [25]

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market reacted sharply to a notice from China Mineral Resources Group, which announced a halt on purchasing iron ore from BHP in USD, leading to a significant drop in BHP's stock price. This move signifies China's transition from being a passive buyer to a rule-maker in resource trade [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - For decades, the iron ore market has been dominated by BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale, leaving buyers, particularly China, constrained in their purchasing power [3] - The establishment of China Mineral Resources Group in 2022 centralized procurement for domestic steel mills, shifting from a fragmented purchasing approach to unified negotiations [3] Group 2: Import Trends - By the first eight months of 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Australia decreased by 12%, indicating a significant diversification in iron ore sourcing [4] - China consumes approximately 75% of the global seaborne iron ore, importing around 1.2 billion tons in 2023, with about 700 million tons from Australia, accounting for approximately 63% [6] Group 3: Pricing and Currency Issues - The immediate cause for halting purchases from BHP was a pricing disagreement, with BHP insisting on a 15% increase for 2025, leading to a price difference of about $30 per ton compared to current spot prices [7] - China has made it clear that future transactions must be settled in RMB, challenging the dominance of the USD in commodity pricing [8] Group 4: Supply Network Development - China's strong stance in iron ore trade is supported by a diversified supply network, including significant projects in Guinea and increased imports from Brazil and Russia [9][10] - The domestic recycling of scrap steel is also maturing, with projections indicating that by 2025, electric arc furnace steelmaking will account for 25% of production, reducing the demand for primary iron ore by approximately 40 million tons annually [11] Group 5: Rise of RMB Settlement - The push for RMB settlement in iron ore trade represents a challenge to USD hegemony, with increasing cross-border transactions in RMB [12] - In 2024, Hebei Steel Group procured 3.06 million tons of iron ore through RMB settlement, marking a 25% increase year-on-year [13] - The proportion of metal trade using RMB for settlement rose to 9.2% in Q3 2023, a significant increase from 2.1% in 2020 [14] Group 6: Global Trade Order Changes - The implications of this iron ore trade dispute extend beyond China and Australia, with Brazil and Russia also adapting to RMB settlement, thereby increasing their market share [15][16] - Southeast Asian steel mills are beginning to inquire about RMB usage, raising concerns about potential shifts in settlement methods for other commodities like copper and aluminum [18] - The global resource landscape is being reshaped, with Australia potentially losing market share to more cooperative suppliers like Brazil and Guinea if it remains inflexible [19]

Core Insights - The recent reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings by China is a strategic move rather than a reaction to immediate events, indicating a planned asset reallocation [3][10] - China's actions signal that U.S. Treasuries are not irreplaceable and that the dollar is not the only safe asset, reflecting a shift in financial strategy [5][13] - The U.S. government's fiscal uncertainties and the recent government shutdown have heightened the sensitivity of China's decision to reduce its Treasury holdings [6][8] Group 1: China's Strategy - China's reduction of U.S. Treasuries has been ongoing for several years, characterized by a gradual withdrawal rather than abrupt selling [3][10] - The shift includes reallocating assets towards gold and other investments, which serves as a risk management strategy [5][13] - This approach allows China to send a message to the U.S. that it will not passively accept unfavorable conditions [10][18] Group 2: U.S. Response - The U.S. government has begun to respond to China's actions by signaling a willingness to negotiate and address trade issues [11][18] - The reduction in Treasury holdings has created pressure on the U.S. fiscal system, highlighting the risks associated with relying on debt [8][15] - The situation emphasizes the need for the U.S. to reassess its fiscal policies and the sustainability of its debt levels [15][18] Group 3: Global Financial Implications - China's actions contribute to a broader trend of diversifying away from the dollar, as more countries seek alternatives to U.S. Treasuries [15][20] - The ongoing financial dynamics reflect a shift towards a multipolar global financial system, where reliance on a single currency is decreasing [15][20] - China's strategy of gradual reduction and asset diversification positions it as a proactive player in the evolving global financial landscape [17][20]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Resilience - The U.S. economy is perceived to be declining, but underlying data suggests it remains robust, with several key indicators still strong [1][4] - U.S. consumer spending is a major driver of the global economy, accounting for approximately 68% of GDP with a real growth rate of 2.1% expected in 2025 [3][4] - The trade deficit, while seemingly negative, reflects borrowing for consumption, which enhances living standards and stimulates global trade [4][12] Group 2: Dollar Dominance - The U.S. dollar maintains a dominant position in global trade, with over 58% of foreign exchange reserves held in dollars and 88% of global foreign exchange transactions conducted in dollars [7][8] - The dollar's status is bolstered by the credibility of the U.S. financial system and its use in oil pricing, ensuring its continued relevance despite discussions of de-dollarization [8][12] - The dollar's strength is evident as it remains the preferred currency for international payments, with a significant share of global trade invoices denominated in dollars [7][8] Group 3: Corporate Influence - U.S. companies, particularly in technology, hold significant power in the global supply chain, with major firms like Apple and Microsoft leading in market capitalization and innovation [11][12] - The U.S. corporate sector is characterized by strong investment in technology and research, positioning it as a leader in AI and other advanced industries [11][12] - The presence of U.S. military bases worldwide provides a stable environment for American companies, enhancing their global operational security [12][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite challenges, the U.S. economy is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2025, outpacing many developed economies [14] - The advantages of the U.S. economy are the result of decades of strategic positioning, including trade deficits that provide access to cheaper goods and the dollar's financial dominance [14] - The resilience of the U.S. economy suggests it can withstand global slowdowns, with ongoing strength in consumer spending and corporate investment [14]

中国近期宣布将停止采购必和必拓等澳大利亚铁矿商以美元结算的海运铁矿石，并要求以人民币结算。这一政策令澳大利亚矿业巨头深感压力，表面上看 似只是中国与澳大利亚之间的贸易争端，实则影响深远，既是对澳大利亚经济的精准反击，也是对美国金融霸权的一次重击。 全球大宗商品贸易的结算货币问题，早已超越了经济领域，成为国际政治博弈的重要一环。中国作为全球最大钢铁生产国，每年消费全球约七成的铁矿 石，而澳大利亚是世界上最大的铁矿石供应国，两国的经济联系原本应互惠互利。然而，长久以来，澳大利亚矿企凭借市场垄断地位，操控铁矿石定价 权，使得中国每年为铁矿石支付的成本居高不下。尽管铁矿石的开采成本仅为每吨16到18美元，但澳大利亚却将其售价抬高至每吨80到100美元。更不合 理的是，澳大利亚矿企即便在现货价格已经大幅下降的情况下，依旧在长协谈判中要求价格上涨。这种"买得越多，价格越高"的定价方式让中国钢铁企业 每年多支付数百亿美元的额外成本。 中国此次推行铁矿石人民币结算政策，背后是经过深思熟虑的战略布局。此次决策主要集中在三个核心目标上：第一，争夺铁矿石定价权，避免长期承受 不公平的"溢价"困境。中国作为全球最大铁矿石买家，却长期 ...