Core Viewpoint - The recent strength of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, surpassing the 7.17 mark, is attributed to various factors including economic fundamentals, capital flows, and market sentiment, despite the backdrop of US tariffs [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - The RMB's appreciation is surprising given the economic growth slowdown in China, but the country's economic fundamentals are reportedly stronger than those of developed nations, with optimistic growth forecasts from the World Bank and IMF [2][3] - The RMB's stability is supported by ongoing institutional reforms and the potential of domestic demand, alongside significant technological innovations [2] Group 2: Capital Flows - The decline of the US dollar's dominance is influenced by the changing global economic landscape, with foreign investors increasingly recognizing the value of Chinese assets, leading to substantial capital inflows into China [3] - The RMB's strengthening is partly due to a shift in investor sentiment towards Chinese assets, as many are looking to "bottom-fish" after a period of adjustment [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The current RMB strength may signal the beginning of a new global monetary system, as the US dollar faces challenges from its politicization and increasing national debt [4] - There is a growing consensus among global investors to diversify away from the dollar, with the RMB emerging as a stable alternative for reserves and transactions, particularly in new commodity pricing and cross-border payment systems [4]

Core Viewpoint - China's selling of US Treasury bonds is putting significant pressure on the US government, forcing President Trump to reconsider his stance towards China amid the ongoing trade negotiations [1][10][17] Group 1: Financial Impact - The US Treasury is facing a daily interest expense of $3 billion, while China's holdings of $765.4 billion in US debt are depreciating by 1% daily [2][5] - The short positions on 10-year US Treasuries have surged to levels not seen since 2008, with $3.8 trillion in capital fleeing from dollar assets [2][10] - If China continues to reduce its US debt holdings by 5%, the Pentagon may need to cut its budget for two aircraft carrier battle groups next year [7][10] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The recent 13% appreciation of the euro against the dollar threatens the foundation of the petrodollar system [4][10] - China's share of global oil trade settled in yuan has increased to 2.3%, a 15-fold increase from three years ago [5][10] - The Chinese government is allowing companies to use iron ore and copper concentrate as collateral for loans in yuan, facilitating bypassing the dollar in commodity transactions [9][10] Group 3: Strategic Moves - The negotiations in Geneva include a clause where China demands recognition of the yuan's special drawing rights, which would effectively grant the yuan an "international passport" [7][10] - China's reduction of US debt holdings is part of a broader strategy to internationalize the yuan and challenge the dollar's dominance [14][15] - The ongoing trade war has transformed into a financial battle, with the key to victory being the internationalization of local currencies [14][15]

Group 1 - The article highlights the rapid depreciation of the US dollar's dominance in global currency reserves, with its share dropping from 71% to 58%, the lowest since 2001 [3] - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with countries like Saudi Arabia and India moving towards using local currencies for trade, indicating a shift away from the US dollar [3][5] - The rise of the digital yuan and China's gold reserves is seen as a challenge to the existing dollar hegemony, with significant implications for global trade and finance [1][7] Group 2 - The offshore yuan exchange rate has surged to 7.24, impacting Chinese exporters and highlighting the shift in pricing power within the supply chain [5] - China's targeted monetary policy, including low-interest loans for foreign trade enterprises, is more effective than the US Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments [5] - The global demand for gold among central banks has reached a 55-year high, with 1136 tons purchased in 2023, indicating a strategic move away from dollar reliance [7][10] Group 3 - The digital yuan is becoming a preferred currency in various sectors, including gambling, showcasing its growing acceptance and efficiency in cross-border transactions [7] - The article suggests that the US's aggressive monetary policies and sanctions have inadvertently accelerated the decline of the dollar's supremacy [10] - The increasing volume of gold transactions in yuan at the Shanghai oil futures exchange signifies a potential shift in global trading practices [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the transformation of the U.S. dollar from a gold-backed currency to a fiat currency, emphasizing its dual role as both the national currency and a global reserve currency [1][3] - The U.S. trade deficit has dramatically increased from $6 billion in 1975 to nearly $1 trillion in 2022, challenging traditional economic theories that view trade deficits as a sign of economic decline [1][5] - The article highlights the irony of the U.S. imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, which ultimately burdened American consumers and businesses, leading to an increase in the trade deficit during Trump's administration [1][5] Group 2 - The U.S. has a low personal savings rate of 3.8% as of Q3 2023, compared to China's 45%, reflecting a different economic structure that encourages consumption over saving [5] - The U.S. net international investment position reached -$18.3 trillion, indicating that each American citizen owes approximately $55,000 to the rest of the world, yet creditors continue to lend due to the U.S.'s significant consumer market [5][7] - The article points out that U.S. multinational companies contribute significantly to the trade surplus with China, with 40% of the surplus attributed to American firms operating in China [7] Group 3 - The article discusses the "super privilege" of the U.S. dollar, allowing the U.S. to purchase global goods through money printing, which effectively imposes an "inflation tax" on other countries holding dollar reserves [7][9] - The rise of digital currencies is seen as a potential threat to the dollar's dominance, with China's cross-border RMB payments reaching 48% in 2023, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics [9] - The U.S. trade deficit is portrayed as a byproduct of the current international monetary system, reflecting both U.S. economic power and the inherent contradictions of globalization [9]

比关税更要命，一场全新的货币大战，正在颠覆全球金融格局。 川普上任以来，不断地挥舞关税大棒，吸引了全球媒体的目光。 但在关税之外，川普还在干一件大事，却被媒体当成了花边，那就是推广虚拟货币。 虚拟货币大家都知道，比如像比特币、以太坊等等，但这东西因为它天然去中心化的属性，所以各国政府一般都比较排斥。 但川普不一样，他自己就发行了一种虚拟货币，叫作特朗普币，还以美国总统的身份亲自代言，那些持有特朗普币最多的人，甚至还会被邀请参观白宫，跟 川普一起共进晚餐。 对川普的这个行为，大多数人都以为，他这么做就是为了赚钱，确实，他的家族在短短两个月里，已经通过特朗普币捞了上10亿美元。 但川普的目的真的就这么简单吗？ 直到最近，欧洲央行发出警报，我们才发现，虚拟货币是一个比关税更要命的大杀器，川普正在用它重塑全球金融格局，并试图彻底解决美债危机。 这次引起引起欧洲央行警觉的，是以美元为锚的稳定币，我先解释一下什么是稳定币。 打个比方，我们玩电子游戏，得先充值，比如把钱充进去兑换成欢乐豆，然后再用欢乐豆购买游戏里的道具。 稳定币其实就是一种欢乐豆，它最初是由一些虚拟货币交易平台推出的，比如你想购买比特币，就得先在某平台上充 ...

1993年1月20日，美国举行了冷战结束后的第一次总统就职典礼。这次典礼上的演讲者是一位看似稳重且果断的中年男子，他的名字叫比尔·克林顿。 克林顿能够在1992年的总统选举中击败老布什并最终胜出，并非仅仅依靠其年轻的优势。他和他的妻子希拉里都是非常老练的政治人物，深谙权谋之道。克 林顿在美国总统宝座上的时机恰好与美国的"黄金时代"契合。 在当时，世界依然被苏联解体的巨大震动所影响，没有任何国家敢质疑和挑战美国的全球霸权。正是因为这样，克林顿试图为全球设定一种新的政治经济体 系，而这一计划几乎没有受到阻碍。因此，克林顿开始着手建立一个以美国为核心的全球剥削体系。 培养"经济白手套" 至今，这一体系仍然为美国带来丰厚的收益，甚至美国还试图运用这一框架来对中国进行打压。那么，克林顿为美国设计的这一剥削体系到底具备哪些独特 的优势呢？美国是否能够依靠过去的经验有效遏制中国的发展呢？接下来，我们将一一探讨。 在克林顿的战略布局中，俄罗斯作为廉价能源的供应国，而欧洲国家则承担了大部分的工业生产任务。美国则通过掌控高科技产业，赚取巨额财富。而冷战 后的俄罗斯在美国专家的建议下，几乎完全顺从美国的战略，直至今日，俄罗斯的经济 ...

究竟美联储加息如何能够影响全球市场？其背后的运作原理又是什么？而我国又凭借什么独特优势，能够在贸易战的背景下依然站稳脚跟，避免被"收 割"呢？在当今的发达经济体中，大多国家采用的是市场与计划相结合的模式，政府仅进行必要的宏观调控，以防经济出现剧烈波动，并积极响应经济周期 的变化。这一宏观调控以各种政策的制定与实施为基础，其中货币政策和财政政策是最为常用的手段。 货币政策可以进一步分为扩张性和紧缩性两种，通常遵循逆周期的原则。比方说，当国内经济过热，民众消费与投资如火如荼，政府便会采取紧缩性的货币 政策，例如减少货币流通量或提高利率等。这类政策的目标就是给经济"降温"，其反面则为扩张政策。 早在上一世纪初期的两次世界大战期间，国际上曾经建立了布雷顿森林体系——这一体系使得美元与黄金挂钩，其他国家的货币则与美元相挂钩，持有美元 的人可以向美国政府兑换成实实在在的黄金。然而随着时间的推移，因大萧条及其他经济现象的观察，发现这样的机制过于僵化，限制了各国政府对经济的 灵活干预。因此，这个体系最终走向了瓦解，取而代之的是我们今日所熟知的全球金融体系。 近来，关注财经新闻或对国际政治动态感兴趣的人们，常常会听到一个频繁提 ...

不愧是本子，关键时候永远能捅人一刀。 美国人曾经为了对付日本组织人力物力写了一本《菊与刀》，好日子过久了，只看到本子一脸谄媚舔菊 的柔媚，全然忘了人家把吕布当偶像来拜，身上随时带着小刀，等的就是你虚弱的时候，好捅你菊花一 刀。 好几年前写过一篇《《菊与刀》：你难以理解日本的原因》，那时候大约连本子都没想过，平时高高在 上的美帝能衰成今天这个样子，在中东被人用拖鞋反复揍，还得舔着脸假装一切安好，去中东讨饭，明 知道拖鞋是大户家豢养的，也只能忍了。 日本首相石破茂19日在参议院预算委员会上重申日本就日美关税谈判的立场：我们不会拘泥于最后期 限，不打算做出有损国家利益的事。我们将以不后退的决心来面对。 说得很好，希望说到做到。 当然了，再衰弱的美国也还在日本驻军了，并且掌控了日本先进美制武器的开机密码，还有个很牛叉的 东京地检特搜部在那里虎视眈眈，随时准备瞄准那些带头出来唱反调的往死里整。 以色列想吃掉加沙那么小一块地，好歹是中东小霸王，干了两年，都没办法干得动一群游击队武装，这 背后还有美帝的支持。 再看俄乌战场，北约全体赋能，也就打成了那个熊样。 掉转过头看亚洲的印巴战争，东大展示了什么叫现代化体系作战，此刻耿 ...

文︱陆弃 美国财政状况的恶化和债务问题的持续发酵，对全球金融市场构成复杂挑战。首先，美国作为全球最大 经济体，其财政政策的失控将引发美元体系的震荡，从而影响国际贸易和资本流动。美元一旦失去部分 储备货币地位，不仅会加剧国际货币体系的分裂，还可能激发更多国家寻求多元化的储备资产配置。其 次，美债市场的低迷表现，尤其是长债拍卖遇冷，显示市场对美国债务安全性的担忧正在升温，债券收 益率的异常波动也会影响全球资金成本，进而冲击企业投资和经济增长。最后，财政赤字激增的背景 下，美联储的货币政策空间受到挤压，未来利率走向更难预测，市场不确定性进一步加剧。 面对当前局势，国际社会需保持警觉并审慎应对。美元走弱和美国财政风险的释放，既是全球金融体系 长期矛盾的集中体现，也为新兴金融工具和数字资产的发展提供了契机。各国央行和投资者应强化风险 管理，探索多元化的资产配置策略，以应对未来可能出现的货币市场震荡。同时，美国自身也应重新审 视财政政策的可持续性，避免因短期政治博弈导致长期经济和金融稳定的损害。毕竟，一个健康稳固的 美元体系不仅是美国经济的命脉，更是全球金融稳定的基石。 现在，美国财政隐忧正逐渐从表面走向深层，对美元及全 ...

斯蒂芬•米兰认为美元储备地位、美元高估和贸易逆差面临取舍，高估的美元让制造业 竞争力下降，但也维系"美元霸权"。如何改革逆差过大和制造业衰落？ 文丨陈稻田 特朗普的经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬•米兰（Stephen Miran）在经济学博士毕业后立刻进入 华尔街做外汇交易，在今年2月份参议院的任职听证会上，他表示这段市场考验让他不再"书 生气"，而是开始"接地气"。在解释为什么他可以胜任总统经济顾问一职时，米兰表示他的普 通家庭背景让他会更关注普通人；而导师费尔德斯坦（曾经是里根的经济顾问）和米兰讨论 论文的时候总是要求说："假想我是参议员，你说的东西要让我能听懂"，米兰表示这个训练 也让他做好了和职业政治家交流的准备。2024年11月大选之前不久，还在一家投资基金担任 策略师的米兰写下了一篇策论文章，讨论特朗普胜选后可能以及应该的各种经济策略、取 舍、以及风险考量，其中详细讨论了名为"海湖庄园协议"的新国际金融体系。很自然，在他 获得重用后"海湖庄园协议"在美国内外都获得了相当的关注。 阅读更多内容请点击下方"阅读原文" （本文由FT中文网提供） 编者荐语： 日本经济新闻社与金融时报2015年11月合并为同一家 ...