白宫周五在社交媒体平台X上发文称，由于国会未能通过临时拨款法案，资金短缺导致调查人员无法外出采集数据，从而"使我们失去了关键 数据"，"其经济后果可能是毁灭性的"。 白宫指出，这"将是历史上首次"无法公布相关信息。 美东时间周五（10月24日），白宫宣布，由于美国政府关门，下个月可能不会公布通胀数据。 分析人士指出，美国政府"停摆"持续的核心原因在于两党就医保福利支出问题僵持不下，临时拨款法案始终无法通过。 截至周五，共和党人与民主党人在临时拨款立法上的僵局已进入第24天。目前约有70万名联邦雇员被迫休假，另有近70万人无薪工作。 虽然政府仍在停摆中，但美国9月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告于周五公布，以便社会保障局能据此计算数百万退休人员及其他福利领取者的 2026年生活成本调整方案。这份报告原定于10月15日发布。 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在另一条X帖子中表示："民主党选择让政府继续关门，可能导致10月通胀报告无法发布，这将使企业、市场、 家庭以及美联储陷入混乱。" 美国联邦政府关门已进入第四周，这是美国历史上持续事件第二长的政府"停摆"事件。 自10月1日政府停摆以来，参议院民主党人多次阻止临时拨款法案 ...

当地时间10月24日，随着美国政府停摆进入第24天，超过50万名联邦雇员本周未能如期领取全额薪水。 参议院目前休会，停摆预计将持续至下周一。 另据美国全国广播公司（NBC）报道，因政府"停摆"导致薪资中断，大批联邦雇员当天在华盛顿东南部 的首都地区食品银行（Capital Area Food Bank）排队领取餐食和生活用品。 一名受访者称："过去我是发放补助的人，如今却要排队领援助。"另一名雇员表示，尽管停薪，却因收 入标准不符而无法领取粮食券，称"这令人感到悲哀——为国家工作多年，到需要帮助时却得不到支 持。" 由于美国共和、民主两党在医保相关福利支出等核心议题上分歧巨大，国会参议院未能在9月30日上一 财年结束前通过新的临时拨款法案，导致联邦政府维持正常运转的资金耗尽，于10月1日起"停摆"。 （央视新闻） 据组织者威尔·斯特罗曼介绍，食品银行当天向约250名联邦雇员提供援助，并计划每周五持续发放物资 直至停摆结束。多名受访雇员表示，账单、房贷与家庭开支给他们带来巨大压力，希望国会议员也暂停 领取薪水。 ...

由于美国共和、民主两党在医保相关福利支出等核心议题上分歧巨大，国会参议院未能在9月30日上一 财年结束前通过新的临时拨款法案，导致联邦政府维持正常运转的资金耗尽，于10月1日起"停摆"。 当地时间10月24日，随着美国政府停摆进入第24天，超过50万名联邦雇员本周未能如期领取全额薪水。 参议院目前休会，停摆预计将持续至下周一。 （文章来源：央视新闻客户端） ...

摩根大通交易部门认为，尽管经济学家预计周五发布的消费者物价指数（CPI）将显示通胀居高不下，但股票交易员很可能对此不以为意——因为当前市场 叙事被"美联储下周有望降息"的乐观情绪主导。 以安德鲁·泰勒（Andrew Tyler）为首的团队指出，CPI发布当天股市波动"将低于往常"，原因是投资者对美联储10月29日再次降息的预期，可能抵消任何与 通胀相关的焦虑情绪。他们判断，即便经济学家普遍预计CPI读数将高于预期，但标普500指数在数据发布后上涨的概率仍约为65%。 "我们认同市场观点，认为只有出现极端尾部风险，才可能让美联储搁置降息计划。"摩根大通全球市场情报主管泰勒周三在给客户的报告中写道。 彭博社调查显示，经济学家预计9月核心CPI（剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分）环比上涨0.3%，同比涨幅将维持在3.1%——与前一个月持平，且远高于美 联储2%的通胀目标。 周五发布的CPI数据，是10月1日政府停摆以来首份重要经济报告，对投资者而言分量极重。该数据将成为美联储利率会议前少数能反映经济状况的明确信 号之一，且可能为今年剩余时间的市场走势定调。 美国劳工统计局已召回少量员工编制这份报告，以便社会保障局能据此 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

现货黄金上周一度创下4381美元历史高位，年初至今已累升近67%，其后连续四天未能突破，市场忧虑贵金属估值过高令金价获利回套，执笔时低见4003美 元。 周二金价录得自2020年8月以来最大单日跌幅，幅度高达6.3%，大规模抛售与获利了结盘做就这一跌势，凸显了"共识交易"潜在的风险。 技术走势方面，金价、银价正式进入调整，短期内黄金将下望3880美元，而白银则有望测试44美元支持位，投资者暂只宜看淡。 大湾区家族办公室协会李慧芬教授 日期：2025年10月24日星期五 (本人并没持有以上股票) 自9月初起，价格便持续运行于超买区域，现时多间大行仍维持对黄金明年恢复上行势头的预判。从交易层面来看，此次回调直接终结了自8月中旬开启的快 速上行周期。 令金价逆转的消息包括周二特朗普对与中国国家主席达成贸易协议的积极表态，巴以停火协议签订，俄乌新一轮谈判即将召开，以及白宫称本周末政府可能 恢复运行，叠加本周五美国劳工局将发布推迟的美国CPI数据印证美国政府停摆可能暂告段落，这些均驱使黄金多头获利了结。关于黄金提前兑现的节点之 前文章都有提示过。值得注意的是全球第二大黄金消费国印度排灯节结束，实物需求减少，是金价下跌的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations impacting investor sentiment and gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Data - On October 23, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 942.28 yuan per gram, reflecting a decrease of 0.77% [1]. - The trading volume for the day was 555,735 contracts, while the open interest stood at 189,131 contracts [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 938.00 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 4.28 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - U.S. President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a trade agreement with China during the upcoming APEC meeting, although he noted the possibility of cancellation [1]. - The EU has approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, which includes a ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas [1]. - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted three weeks, becoming the second-longest in history, with ongoing deadlock over healthcare subsidies [2]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Ruida Futures, the precious metals market is expected to experience wide-ranging fluctuations due to various macroeconomic uncertainties [2]. - International precious metals futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.18% to $4,116.60 per ounce and silver futures increasing by 1.00% to $48.18 per ounce [2]. - The market is currently facing resistance to gold price increases due to improved risk appetite stemming from easing trade tensions and expectations of reduced tariffs [2].

| CTERET | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日度 策略参考 | | | | 发布日期:2025/ | | 人 中 谷 若 · F D · F · F · F · F | | | | 行业板块 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 短期内股指预计偏强震荡为主,警惕关税政策的反复,时间节点 | | | 震荡 | 关注本月底可能于韩国APEC会议期间开展的中美领导人会晤。 | | 国债 | 준间。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | | 避险降温和获利回吐引发贵金属价格下挫；但美国政府停摆持 | | | 震荡 | 续、美联储10月仍有降息预期等,金价不宜过度悲观,短期或进 | | | | 入震荡走势。 | | 白银 | 農汤 | 短期或偏空震荡,但仍需关注伦敦实物紧张情况。 | | - 10 | 看多 | 短期全球贸易摩擦有所反复,铜价波动加剧。但铜矿供应扰动持 | | | | 续发酵,叠加美联储降息预期提升,铜价有望偏强运行。 | | | | 电解铝基本面喜忧参半,预计价格震荡运行。 | | 氧化铝 | | 在生产仍有 ...

Core Points - The total U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $38 trillion as of October 21, marking a rapid increase from $37 trillion just two months prior [1][2] - The growth rate of the debt has accelerated significantly, with the time taken to increase from $30 trillion to $38 trillion being only three years, and the time to increase by $1 trillion now measured in months rather than years [3] - The current federal debt is 126.8% of GDP, exceeding the IMF's recommended threshold of 100% for developed economies, and is projected to reach 133% by 2035 without major reforms [3] Debt Sustainability Concerns - The high level of debt has raised market concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt, especially in light of the recent government shutdown, which has intensified worries about economic impacts [4] - The ongoing political conflicts are expected to further damage the economy, making the current "borrow new to pay old" debt strategy increasingly difficult to maintain [4] Investor Behavior and Market Reactions - Investors are buying U.S. Treasuries driven by risk-averse sentiment, betting that the Federal Reserve will continue to ease tightening policies to support employment and mitigate economic downturn risks [6] - As of October 22, the 2-year Treasury yield reached a new low of 3.38%, while the 10-year yield was at 3.95%, indicating a trend towards lower yields amid economic uncertainty [6] Inflation and Federal Reserve Actions - The upcoming release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show a 0.3% increase in both overall and core CPI, maintaining core inflation around 3.1% [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 95.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [7]

汇通财经APP讯——今年以来，黄金表现依然抢眼，受地缘政治紧张局势、经济不确定性、美国降息预 期以及ETF强劲流入的推动，金价累计涨幅高达57%。这一亮眼表现离不开全球市场对避险资产的旺盛 需求。然而，近期国际贸易局势的缓和以及俄乌和平前景的初步显现，部分削弱了黄金的避险吸引力， 导致部分投资者选择在高位获利了结。 周三（10月22日）现货黄金盘中一度下跌近3%，触及近两周低点4004.46美元/盎司，延续了前一日5.3% 的罕见单日跌幅。然而，多重因素吸引逢低买盘帮助金价守住4000关口，并一度回升至4160附近，纽约 时段再度下探4000关口附近支撑，但再度在逢低买盘的支撑下反弹，尾盘金价回升至4098.29美元/盎 司，跌幅收窄至0.64%。这一走势反映了市场在关键经济数据发布前的谨慎情绪。周四（10月23日）亚 市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4195美元/盎司附近。 High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger指出，鉴于金价过去几周的显著上涨，在美国消费者物价 指数（CPI）报告发布前出现获利回吐并不意外。技术面上，金价在4005美元的21日移动均线处获得支 撑，显示短 ...