Group 1 - The international gold price significantly declined on Monday, dropping below the $4000 per ounce mark during trading, with the December gold futures closing at $4019.7 per ounce, a decrease of 2.85% [1][4] - Investors are closely monitoring the latest developments in trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries, which have shown some progress, boosting market risk appetite [1][4] - The US inflation data released last Friday reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce another interest rate cut this week, contributing to the rise in US stock indices, which all reached historical highs [1][4] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index saw gains across its eleven sectors, with the communication services and technology sectors leading the way [1] - Notable increases in stock prices were observed for major tech companies, including Nvidia (up over 2.8%), Tesla (up over 4%), and Apple (up over 2%), with Apple's market capitalization nearing $4 trillion [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index also rose approximately 1.6%, indicating a positive trend for Chinese stocks listed in the US [1]

【导读】黄金白银暴跌 上周一金价曾飙升至略高于每盎司4380美元的历史新高，随后出现回落，显示金市已进入超 买区间。近期推动金价上行的因素包括所谓的"货币贬值交易"和对美联储降息的押注，吸引 了散户投机者入场并将价格推至超买状态。尽管如此，在全球央行强劲买盘的支撑下，金价 今年迄今仍上涨逾50%。 盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示："黄金正在经历一场姗姗来迟的回调，今天的 驱动因素是有关贸易谈判的正面消息，我们可能已经见到了今年高点，更深度的回调可能需 要更长时间来修复，因为交易员趋于谨慎，而股市仍在走高。" 大家好，今晚冰火两重天！股市暴涨，避险资产黄金、白银暴跌！ 一起看看发生了什么事情。 10月27日晚间，现货黄金价格暴跌超3%，跌破4000美元、3900美元关口，现货白银价格暴 跌约5%。 伦敦金 (现货黄金) CFD 、 < V 期 XAU 3986.57 -126.25 -3.07% 10-27 22:53:00 最高 持仓量 今开 4074.34 4108.92 昨结算 振幅 3.06% 最低 3983.18 4112.82 美元指数 98.8677 -0.0726% > 分时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in gold prices is driven by multiple factors including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, concerns over U.S. government shutdowns, and global central banks increasing their gold reserves, making gold a dual benchmark for both safety and value appreciation [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of October 24, the Shanghai gold spot price reached 942.22 yuan per gram, marking a 0.69% increase from the previous day, while international gold prices have surged over 60% since early 2025 [1]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, reaching 74.06 million ounces by the end of September, highlighting gold's long-term strategic value [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Gold - The 8-gram zodiac gold and silver coins, first issued in 1981, are gaining popularity among ordinary investors due to their combination of precious metal attributes and cultural value [4]. - The 8-gram zodiac coins are made of 91.6% gold, ensuring that their intrinsic value rises with gold prices, while their limited early production enhances their cultural rarity and artistic value [4]. - The moderate price point of the 8-gram coins makes them accessible for investors, allowing them to benefit from rising gold prices without significant capital outlay [4]. Group 3: Investment Platforms - Zhao Yong Online, established in 1985, is a leading global collectibles trading platform that addresses investor pain points with a professional authenticity system and strict verification processes to eliminate counterfeit risks [4]. - The platform boasts an annual transaction volume of 600,000 items and a transaction rate of 90%, with an 85% repurchase rate indicating high liquidity and ease of monetization for investors [4]. - Zhao Yong Online provides comprehensive services, from detailed item descriptions to secure logistics, catering to a diverse range of collectors from novices to seasoned investors [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite potential short-term adjustments in gold prices, the long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by a 98.3% probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and persistent global risk aversion [5]. - The 8-gram zodiac gold and silver coins serve as a hedge against inflation and a means of cultural preservation, making them a wise choice for asset allocation in the current rising gold price environment [5].

Group 1 - Hong Kong stock indices showed volatility with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.02%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.95%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 1.48% as of the midday close on October 27 [1] - Popular ETFs in Hong Kong, particularly the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230), saw an increase of nearly 1.5%, with top holdings like Alibaba, Shenzhou International, Budweiser APAC, Tencent Holdings, Li Auto, Gu Ming, and China Feihe showing significant gains [1] - Lao Pu Gold announced its third price adjustment of the year, with multiple products seeing price increases exceeding 20%, following earlier increases of 5% to 13% in August [1] Group 2 - The U.S. CPI for September rose by 3% year-on-year, the highest since January, but below market expectations of 3.1%. Core CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, also lower than anticipated, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters was reported at 5.2%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [1] - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is currently at a historically high level, with expectations of wide fluctuations in the market moving forward [1] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on sectors benefiting from increased market risk aversion, such as precious metals [2] - There is a rising interest in dividend assets as market styles shift, particularly those that have previously shown lower gains [2] - The technology and consumer sectors are expected to attract funding attention based on the policy priorities outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in spot gold prices is attributed to improved market risk appetite and easing global trade tensions, leading to reduced demand for safe-haven assets [1][3] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of October 27, spot gold is trading below $4083, currently at $4070.17 per ounce, down 0.99% from previous levels, with a high of $4108.19 and a low of $4053.29 [1] - Last week, COMEX gold futures fell by 0.45%, closing at $4126.90 per ounce [2] - The gold market experienced profit-taking after reaching historical highs, with a peak of $4382.3 before a significant pullback [4] Group 2: Economic and Political Factors - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant disruptions in air traffic control, with over 5300 flights delayed on October 25 alone, exacerbating the situation due to staff shortages [2] - Economic forecasts indicate that if the government shutdown continues, the U.S. GDP could lose approximately $15 billion weekly [3] - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a 0.3% month-over-month increase in September, slightly below expectations, with an annual inflation rate of 3.0% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent drop in gold prices is primarily due to reduced safe-haven demand stemming from improved U.S.-China trade relations and geopolitical risk alleviation [3] - While short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the potential for a Federal Reserve easing cycle and lingering risks [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 避险降温，贵金属调整 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-10-27 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4111.555 | 4251.448 | -139.893 | -3.29% | | 沪金主力 | 元/克 | 938.10 | 999.80 | -61.7 | -6.17% | | 基差（TD-期货，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -1.97 | -2.8 | 0.83 | -29.64% | | 内外价差（TD-伦敦，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -1.15 | -2.48 | 1.33 | -53.63% | | 黄金SPDR ...

近年来，黄金投资的讨论热度不断攀升，金条、金饰等实物黄金交易火热，黄金ETF(159934)等产品也 受到市场资金关注。近日，黄金价格出现显著回调，也有投资者发出疑问：投资黄金，一定就能保值 吗？ 在大家的固有印象中，黄金通常被视为"避险资产"，代表着"保值、抗风险"。但从历史数据来看，其实 黄金价格的波动并不小，若遇到熊市，也可能会带来较大的资金损失。 虽然近二十几年黄金资产的表现较好，2000年至今黄金价格的年化收益率约11%，但如果把目光再放远 一点，可以看到黄金也曾经历长达十多年的熊市。 如下图所示，从布雷顿森林体系瓦解(1971年)以来，黄金出现过几次跌幅较大的熊市。例如，1987年末 到1999年下半年的熊市持续了11年7个月，而其他三次的持续时间分别为1年8个月、5年1个月和4年3个 月。跌幅最大的是1980年初开始持续了5年多的熊市，黄金价格下跌66%，而其他三次熊市跌幅也达到 了45%-49%不等。 图：1970年以来黄金价格走势 数据来源：Wind，图中展示伦敦现货黄金价格，单位为美元/盎司，按月统计，统计区间为1969/12/31- 2025/10/23。 驱动黄金价格的因素比较复杂，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is at a historically high level, with expectations of wide fluctuations in the future. The report suggests focusing on certain sectors due to rising market risk aversion and changing market styles [1]. Market Performance - During the week of October 20 to October 24, major global stock indices mostly rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 3.62%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.20%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 3.91% [2]. - Among the primary industries, nine sectors rose while two fell. The energy, information technology, and consumer discretionary sectors saw the highest gains, increasing by 5.26%, 4.83%, and 4.15% respectively [2]. - In terms of liquidity, the average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 240.846 billion, a decrease of HKD 118.507 billion from the previous week [2]. Valuation and Risk Appetite - As of October 24, the PE and PB ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 12.04 and 1.23, reflecting increases of 3.84% and 3.80% respectively, placing them at the 86% and 89% percentile levels since 2019 [3]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.29%, which is significantly below the historical average, indicating a low risk appetite among investors [3]. Investment Outlook - The U.S. CPI rose by 3% year-on-year in September, the highest since January, but below market expectations, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a slight decline in growth rate in the third quarter [4]. - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session highlighted key economic goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing high-quality development and technological self-reliance [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China starting November 1, but the situation quickly shifted towards a more conciliatory tone from U.S. officials, including Trump, who hinted at a potential visit to China early next year [2][4] - China dominates the global supply of medium and heavy rare earth elements, accounting for 99% of the market, making it essential for U.S. manufacturing and high-tech development [4] - The easing of tensions led to a significant rebound in stock markets, with U.S. tech companies reaching historical highs and A-shares also experiencing a strong recovery, particularly in high-tech sectors [5][6] Group 2 - High-tech sectors such as AI, the Nvidia supply chain, Apple supply chain, Tesla supply chain, robotics, and semiconductors are seeing strong rebounds due to their solid performance and growth potential [5][6] - The market may experience volatility until a final trade agreement is reached, but optimism surrounding the upcoming summit could shift investment focus from safe-haven assets to high-tech growth stocks [6][8] - The recent turnaround in U.S.-China relations presents new investment opportunities, particularly in high-tech growth stocks, which are expected to remain in the spotlight [8]

10月21日，黄金，这一古老的避险资产，上演了一场惊心动魄的"高台跳水"。 伦敦现货黄金价格在盘中一度大跌6.3%，最终收跌5.31%，不仅刷新了12年来的单日最大跌幅纪录，也成为了其有记录以来第15大的单日跌幅。这场突如其 来的巨震，甚至被高盛的交易员形容为一场"妖股式的崩盘"。 从10月21日盘中高点4375.59美元/盎司至今，现货黄金跌去近268美元/盎司，本周累计下跌3.35%，收于4107.92美元/盎司，结束连续9周的上涨。 然而，这场看似突然的"崩盘"并非毫无征兆。一系列技术指标的警报早已拉响。那么，这究竟是黄金长期牛市中的一次健康调整，还是狂热彻底逆转的开 始？ 《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）通过对历史上14次黄金单日大跌的复盘发现，其后续走势出现了明显的分化。 四大警报早已拉响 在黄金行情急转直下之前，多项技术指标已经从不同维度发出了明确的警示信号。 首先，市场出现了"美股+金银+美元"同涨的异常组合。民生证券的分析师邵翔在其研报中指出，在大跌之前，市场出现了这种颠覆传统金融逻辑的罕见局 面。他认为，这种资产同涨的组合是不可持续的，并预示着短期内市场格局将出现调整。 另一个关键警 ...