Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and end quantitative tightening reflects a proactive approach to address economic concerns, particularly in light of rising unemployment risks and easing inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the benchmark rate to a range of 3.75%-4.0%, marking the second cut since resuming this policy in September [1]. - The Fed will end its quantitative tightening operations starting December 1, reducing its balance sheet from $8.9 trillion in June 2022 to $6.6 trillion by October 2023 [1]. - Market reactions were mixed, with major indices showing stability, while Powell's comments on future rate cuts led to a temporary market pullback [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a preventive measure due to a rapid decline in U.S. employment data and potential further deterioration in the labor market, alongside a temporary easing of inflation risks [2]. - Recent CPI inflation indicators for September were below expectations, contributing to the decision to lower rates [2]. - The Fed's dual mandate remains a focus, with Powell emphasizing the challenges posed by both employment and inflation risks [2]. Group 3: Market Implications - The end of quantitative tightening is expected to alleviate liquidity pressures in the market, which have been rising recently due to concerns over small banks' liquidity [3]. - The Fed's decision to halt balance sheet reduction may have limited overall impact, as the scale of asset reduction had already decreased significantly [4]. - Political factors are anticipated to increasingly influence Fed decisions, with upcoming personnel changes potentially affecting market expectations [5]. Group 4: Investment Environment - The current economic expansion and declining interest rates create a favorable environment for risk assets, particularly in technology, communication services, and financial sectors [5]. - Global liquidity improvements from Fed rate cuts may also support non-U.S. markets, with structural opportunities in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Japanese markets being highlighted [5]. - Investors are advised to maintain a diversified asset portfolio to balance risks and returns, especially in light of recent volatility in the tech sector [6].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced significant gains, with all three major indices rising collectively, and the ChiNext index reaching a new high for the year with a nearly 3% increase in a single day [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2.26 trillion yuan, showing a notable increase compared to the previous day [1] - There was a clear divergence among sectors, with Hainan, photovoltaic, and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while banking and film sectors showed relatively weak performance [1] Research Insights - CICC expressed a cautious view on the future policy path of the Federal Reserve, suggesting that the pace of interest rate cuts may slow down. Despite a rate cut in October, Powell's statements leaned hawkish, creating uncertainty about further cuts in December [3] - CICC noted an increased internal support for pausing rate cuts, indicating that future easing measures may be more cautious and not overly optimistic. The current round of rate cuts may have a weaker stimulating effect on the economy due to a diminishing "refinancing effect" [3] - Huatai Securities shifted focus to U.S. power infrastructure development, particularly the impact of AI on energy demand. They highlighted a $550 billion investment plan under the Japan-U.S. cooperation framework, with an $80 billion nuclear investment led by Westinghouse as a key highlight [3] - Huatai suggested that rising demand for data center connectivity is increasing pressure on U.S. power supply, which may be temporarily addressed by delaying coal power retirements and developing solar storage and solid oxide fuel cells, while long-term solutions will rely on large-scale gas turbine and nuclear power construction [3] - Guotai Junan Securities focused on the technological evolution in the AI new materials sector, indicating that the application of M9 materials could drive upgrades in the industry chain. Companies expressed optimistic growth expectations and plans to expand capacity at recent industry exhibitions [4] - Guotai Junan analyzed that if the M9 solution is implemented, copper foil may shift to HVLP4 types, electronic fabrics will likely use a combination of Q fabric and second-generation fabric, and resins may trend towards hydrocarbon types. The increased hardness of Q fabric could raise the difficulty of PCB processing, thereby increasing demand for drilling needles and benefiting laser drilling technology [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have led to a significant shift in market expectations regarding future interest rate cuts, impacting gold prices negatively. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - Spot gold prices experienced a brief rise to $4007.47 per ounce following the Federal Reserve's decision but subsequently fell to $3930.42 per ounce, a drop of $77 [1] - As of Thursday morning, gold prices further declined to $3916.32 per ounce [2] - The overall decline in gold prices was nearly 0.6% by the end of Wednesday, despite an intraday increase of up to 2% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.75%-4%, which was in line with market expectations [3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 in favor of the rate cut and indicated the end of quantitative tightening by December 1 [3] - The statement highlighted concerns about the labor market and inflation, noting that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace [3] Group 3: Powell's Hawkish Stance - Powell indicated significant internal disagreement within the FOMC regarding future rate cuts, stating that further cuts are not guaranteed [4] - Following Powell's comments, the implied probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropped from 95% to 67.9%, a decrease of nearly 30 percentage points [4] - The divergence in opinions among Fed officials reflects ongoing tensions between stabilizing prices and achieving full employment [4][5] Group 4: Market Analysts' Perspectives - Analysts have noted that the market's reaction to Powell's comments is justified, as the reduction in rate cut expectations will likely strengthen the dollar and suppress gold prices [6] - The tension within the Fed regarding inflation and interest rates has led to a cooling of market expectations for December rate cuts [7]

因此，劳动力市场仍然紧张，失业率为4.3%，再加上即将到来的大规模财政刺激，也就是所谓的"大而 美法案"，这些影响正在接近。低失业率与"大而美法案"的刺激叠加之下，宽松货币政策很可能削弱我 们近期在抗通胀方面取得的进展，从而带来更大的风险。 我认为现在降息会释放出一种信号：美联储更重视短期增长，而非锚定长期通胀预期，如果通胀重新加 速，这反而可能迫使未来采取更激进的紧缩政策。 南方财经：那么这次降息25个基点，你认为这足以支撑经济活动吗？还是说未来几个月美联储需要更激 进地行动？ Richard Roberts：让我再补充一点：美联储基本是在说，通胀依然偏高，但请相信我们，它会回归正 常。这让我想起在疫情初期我们听到过的一句话——所谓"通胀只是暂时的"。当时，美联储认为通胀是 暂时的，主要由供给压力造成，会很快缓解。然而事实并非如此。 美国东部时间10月29日，美联储在结束最新一次议息会议后宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基 点至3.75%—4%。这是继9月之后再次降息，显示美联储试图缓冲正在走弱的就业市场压力。与此同 时，美联储还宣布将于12月1日起正式停止缩减资产负债表，意味着自2022年启动的量化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points, indicating a shift in monetary policy direction, but the overall tone remains cautious regarding future rate cuts [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points reflects a more dovish stance, yet Chairman Powell's comments suggest a hawkish bias, indicating that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed [1] - The Fed is expected to end quantitative tightening (QT) in December, which is primarily a technical decision rather than a signal of a significant policy shift [1] Group 2: Market Implications - There is a growing consensus within the Federal Reserve to pause further rate cuts, suggesting that the pace of future rate reductions may slow down [1] - The effectiveness of the current rate cut may be weaker than in previous cycles due to a noticeable reduction in the "refinancing effect" [1] - Given the substantial room for further rate cuts, the necessity for purchasing unconventional financial assets is diminished [1]

Group 1 - A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.21%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.22%, and ChiNext Index down 0.32% on October 30 [1] - Sectors such as Fujian, CPO, coal, and precious metals experienced significant declines [1] Group 2 - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace may slow down, advising against overly optimistic expectations [2] - CICC notes that while the Fed has room for further easing, the impact of the current rate cuts may be weaker than in previous cycles due to a diminished refinancing effect [2] - The Fed plans to end quantitative tightening in December, which CICC interprets as a technical consideration rather than a significant policy shift [2] Group 3 - Huatai Securities highlights that the US and Japan are investing $550 billion in power infrastructure, with Westinghouse leading an $80 billion nuclear investment [3] - The firm emphasizes the accelerating role of AI in the construction of the US power system, driven by high demand for data center connectivity and the need for grid expansion [3] - Predictions indicate a delay in coal power retirements in the short term, with a focus on large gas turbines and nuclear power in the long term, suggesting growth opportunities in various segments of the new energy sector [3] Group 4 - Guojin Securities remains optimistic about AI-driven new materials, noting positive expectations from the recent TPCA SHOW regarding industry growth [4] - The firm anticipates that leading companies will actively expand production to meet high demand, particularly in M9 materials [4] - Market attention is expected to focus on the confirmation of material solutions, usage rates, and price potential due to supply tightness [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year[1] - The Fed announced the end of quantitative tightening, with plans to reinvest maturing U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities starting December 1[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement shifted from "economic activity growth has slowed" to "economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace," indicating ongoing growth despite uncertainties[2] - Core PCE inflation is projected to be between 2.3%-2.4%, with non-tariff inflation nearing the 2% target[3] Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Future Rate Cuts - The decision to cut rates was not unanimous, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others preferred to maintain current rates[2] - Powell indicated that the decision for a December rate cut is not guaranteed, with internal divisions and missing key economic data potentially influencing the decision[3][4] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the market's expectation for a December rate cut decreased significantly from over 90% to 60%-70%[4] - Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow down 0.16%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.55%[6]

韩国政府周四在一份声明中表示，美韩贸易协议达成后，韩国外汇市场出现了一些企稳迹象，但波动性 依然较大。韩国央行、金融监督院、金融服务委员会和财政部的官员举行会议，讨论美联储降息以及计 划结束量化紧缩的影响。联合声明称："韩国国内股市和债市呈现稳定走势"。声明补充道："韩国将继 续密切关注外汇和金融市场"，并指出外部不确定因素包括贸易紧张局势和美国政府长期停摆。韩国央 行在另一份声明中表示，尽管美联储降息符合市场预期，但美联储未来的利率路径仍存在高度不确定 性。韩国央行在新闻稿中表示："尽管美韩贸易协议对国内金融和外汇市场有利，但考虑到其他贸易协 议和主要国家的财政状况等外部不确定因素，我们将密切关注市场状况"。 ...

当地时间10月29日，美联储公开市场委员会以10-2票，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至3.75%-4%，这也是年内连续第二 次降息。 鲍威尔打压市场对于12月会议将再度降息的预期：12月降息"远非板上钉钉"，他还有哪些表态？ 美联储宣布结束QT，关于劳动力市场、通货膨胀率，美联储如何声明？ 对于未来的货币政策，机构如何解读？一图速览>> 代表当月暂停加息 有记录来美联储利率走势 2001/01 5.5% *图中数据为目标利率最高上限 2008/1 2020/02 美联储最新声明 ○ 美联储在声明重申,政策制定者对劳动力市场的担忧,称"近几个 月来，就业面临的下行风险有所增加"。 ○ 声明称,现有指标显示,经济活动一直在温和扩张。今年就业增长 有所放缓,失业率略有上升,但截至8月份仍保持在较低水平;最 新指标与这些趋势一致。 ○ 通货膨胀率自今年年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。 ○ 美联储还宣布将于12月1日结束为期三年半的缩减资产购买规模, 即量化紧缩。 机构解读 ■美国银行经济学家Aditya Bhave: 在鲍威尔担任主席期间,美联储不 美联储主席鲍威尔最新衣态 会再次降息。但很明显, ...

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping over $3,500 and falling below the $110,000 mark, while Ethereum and XRP also saw declines exceeding 2% [1][3] - In the last 24 hours, nearly $588 million in cryptocurrency contracts were liquidated, affecting over 133,000 traders, with the largest single liquidation occurring on Bybit-BTCUSD valued at $11 million [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was overshadowed by Chairman Powell's comments, which dampened market sentiment and led to increased risk aversion [1][5] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index opened at 51,146.27 points, down 0.31%, while the Korean Composite Stock Price Index opened at 4,105.95 points, up 0.6%, indicating a mixed performance in the Japanese and Korean stock markets [2] - Powell's remarks highlighted a divergence in views within the Federal Reserve regarding the labor market and inflation, suggesting that the decision for a potential December rate cut is not guaranteed [5][8] - The U.S. Treasury market experienced its largest single-day decline in nearly five months, reflecting the impact of Powell's hawkish signals on market expectations for future rate cuts [7][9]