1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: After the previous profit repair, supply has increased, and downstream polyester producers plan to cut production, leading to a weakening supply - demand balance. However, short - term support is still strong due to the restart of PTA devices and new installations. PX09 is expected to fluctuate between 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA: With the restart of previous maintenance devices and new installations, and the expansion of downstream polyester producers' production cut plans, the supply - demand balance is weakening. But considering the demand for PX and rising oil prices, the price has support at low levels. TA09 is expected to fluctuate between 4600 - 4900 yuan/ton [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: In June, the supply - demand structure is good, with limited import growth. Short - term demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate between 4200 - 4450 yuan/ton [2]. - Short - fiber: The supply and demand are both weak. The processing fee has been repaired recently, but the repair space is limited. PF08 is expected to run between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [2]. - Bottle - chip: In June, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the processing fee may rebound. The absolute price follows the cost [2]. Polyolefin Industry PP is bearish in the medium - term and can be used as a short - position allocation. PE has a weaker structure, and geopolitical conflicts may lead to a short - term rebound followed by short - selling. If oil prices fall, there will be more downward space [7]. Crude Oil Industry Oil price fluctuations are expected to increase due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. WTI's upper resistance is in the range of [79, 80] dollars/barrel, Brent's upper pressure is in the range of [80, 81] dollars/barrel, and SC's pressure level is in the range of [580, 595] yuan/barrel [10]. Urea Industry In the short - term, under high supply pressure, downstream demand has not yet connected well. The futures price may rebound due to the linkage of the energy - chemical sector, but the amplitude is limited by the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Methanol Industry Imports and inland logistics have jointly pushed up port inventories. In the short - term, the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics. In the long - term, if Iranian supply is interrupted, it may push up the market sentiment, but downstream losses and high implicit inventories will restrict the spot price increase [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: Recently, the supply has decreased, and the demand is under pressure. There may be inventory pressure risks in the short - term. The 7 - 9 positive spread should be exited. In the medium - term, the far - month contract is looking for a bottom [18]. - PVC: In the short - term, it shows a volatile trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the weak real - estate market. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [18]. Styrene Industry Crude oil price increases have driven up the downstream product prices. Pure benzene has upward potential, but high inventory may limit the upside. Styrene's supply and demand have both increased weekly, and port inventory has decreased slightly. In the short - term, there is upward space, but there is medium - term fundamental pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: From June 12 to 13, prices of most polyester products and upstream raw materials changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.7%, and the price of WTI crude oil (July) increased by 6.8% [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply has increased, and downstream polyester producers plan to cut production. PTA's supply - demand balance is weakening, while ethylene glycol's supply - demand structure in June is good [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various sectors in the polyester industry have changed. For example, the PTA operating rate increased from 79.7% to 82.6% [2]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot increased, and the price spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PP inventory is accumulating, and PE inventory is decreasing. The operating rates of PP and PE devices have increased [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 16, compared with June 13, prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the price spreads also changed [10]. - **Supply and Demand Concerns**: The market is worried about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues, and OPEC's actual spare capacity is lower than the theoretical value [10]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads of urea contracts have changed from June 12 to 13 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea supply is high, and downstream demand has not yet connected well [13]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the price spreads also changed [15]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Port inventory has increased significantly. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot changed, and the price spreads also changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda supply has decreased, and demand is under pressure. PVC's short - term supply - demand contradiction is not intensified, but there is long - term pressure [18]. Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of styrene upstream raw materials, spot, and futures increased, and the price spreads changed [21][22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of styrene have both increased weekly, and port inventory has decreased slightly [24].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-16甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡 ...

6月16日，国际金价再度延续涨势，COMEX黄金高点突破3470美元/盎司，已逼近此前于今年4月下旬创 下的历史高点。 "下周美联储将召开6月议息会议，不降息在预期之内，市场更加关注美联储关于下半年通胀和货币政策 表态。地缘政治方面，以色列突袭伊朗，伊朗随后报复袭击以色列，双方冲突逐步升级，后期关注整个 中东地区的局势是否有再次走向混乱的局面，以及美国方面的表态。"展大鹏称，对于金价后续走势， 短期的关注点将从贸易冲突转向地缘政治，在地缘局势预期继续走向恶化之时，毫无疑问将继续推动金 价走势。对于白银而言，黄金的滞涨带动白银的补涨，但地缘态势的转变使得资金再次聚焦黄金，白银 则顺势回调，但金银比的回归以及金价的再次上涨，使得银价向上空间吸引力再次加大。 国际金价拉动下，沪金主力合约2508于16日早盘已一度突破800元/克关口，相比7月15日732元/克的低 点，录得最大超9%的涨幅。 方正中期期货认为，地缘政治冲突升温，市场避险情绪回归，金银比再度走高。在美元信用受损，美债 规模不断增加的背景下，金银中长期上行逻辑未改。 金价连日回暖拉动下，金饰克单价也已重回1000元/克上方。6月16日，周生生足金饰品价 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（6.9~6.13） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 上周沪铜冲高回落，沪铜主力合约下跌1.17%，收报于78010元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美 国关税再起波澜，伊以再度起摩擦，全球不确定加强。国内方面，消费进入淡季，目前来看下游消费 意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存114475吨， 上周出现小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周减5461吨至101943吨。 期货主力 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: High - level oscillation. The core driver has shifted from supply - demand to geopolitics, and the Israel - Iran conflict will dominate oil prices [3][4]. - **LPG**: Bullish in the short - term. The strengthening of upstream crude oil drives up the cost, and the fundamentals are improving marginally [6][8]. - **L**: Bearish rebound. Cost support has improved, but there are risks of continued inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [10][11]. - **PP**: Bearish rebound. Spot high - price transactions are weak, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [13][14]. - **PVC**: Bearish rebound. The cost of ethylene - based plants has increased, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [15]. - **PX**: Cautiously long at low levels. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals are improving in May [16][17]. - **PTA**: Bullish in the short - term but with a weakening fundamental outlook. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weakening [19][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously long at low levels. Supply pressure has eased, and inventory is continuously decreasing [22][23]. Building Materials - **Glass**: Weak and oscillating. Enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory, and the fundamentals are weak [25][27]. - **Soda Ash**: Weakly seeking the bottom. Supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating [28][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: Suppressed by the moving average. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening [31][33]. - **Methanol**: Bullish in the short - term. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, but there are concerns about negative feedback from MTO demand [34] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: International oil prices rose significantly on June 13. WTI rose 4.78%, Brent rose 7.02%, and SC rose 4.74% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is geopolitics. The Israel - Iran conflict is uncertain, and in extreme cases, Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz. Supply is stable, and demand is expected to increase slightly. Inventory data shows a decline in US commercial crude oil inventory [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, and the price range is estimated to be between $55 - 65. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. SC is recommended to focus on the range of [530 - 570] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 13, the PG main contract closed at 4275 yuan/ton, up 3.06%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China all increased [7]. - **Basic Logic**: The strengthening of upstream crude oil drives up the cost. Supply has decreased slightly, demand from downstream chemical industries has increased, and inventory has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the valuation is high. In the short - term, affected by geopolitics, buy put options. PG is recommended to focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] [9]. L - **Market Review**: Cost support has improved, and both futures and spot prices have risen. The North China basis is - 18 (down 17 from the previous period) [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure will decrease next week, but the market is still consuming low - price spot inventory. It is in the traditional off - season, and there is a risk of continued inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are unclear, so reduce short positions. Upstream enterprises can sell for hedging when the basis is negative. L is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: Cost support has improved, and the rebound continues. Spot high - price transactions are weak, and the East China basis is 62 (down 81 from the previous period) [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is weak, and it is in the consumption off - season. Supply is expected to increase in June - July, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions. Downstream enterprises can buy for hedging when the basis is high. PP is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7150] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The cost of ethylene - based plants has increased, and the Changzhou basis is - 109 (down 3 from the previous period) [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic PVC supply has decreased slightly due to maintenance. Demand has weakened in some domestic industries due to the off - season and rainy season. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is insufficient driving force for continuous upward movement. Rebound and go short. V is recommended to focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] [15]. PX - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 6900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6780 yuan/ton (+244). The basis has converged [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas PX device loads have increased, supply pressure has increased, and demand is expected to improve. Inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level. The PXN spread has compressed, and the basis has converged [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the opportunity to go long at low levels. PX is recommended to focus on the range of [6730 - 6880] [18]. PTA - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 5015 yuan/ton (+160), and the TA09 contract closed at 4782 yuan/ton (+162). The basis and monthly spread have strengthened [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Downstream demand is weakening, but inventory is decreasing. Processing fees are high [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the opportunity to go short at high levels. TA is recommended to focus on the range of [4750 - 4880] [21]. MEG - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 4426 yuan/ton (+79), and the EG09 contract closed at 4334 yuan/ton (+100). The basis and monthly spread are strong [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased, and the arrival volume is low, so supply pressure has eased. Downstream demand is weakening, but inventory is decreasing [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to focus on the opportunity to go long at low levels. EG is recommended to focus on the range of [4270 - 4350] [24]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market prices have been reduced, the futures price has fallen under pressure, the basis has widened, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have led to a decrease in market risk appetite. Domestic private credit expansion is blocked, and the demand for glass is shrinking. Enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory, and the fundamentals are weak [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is recommended to focus on the range of [960 - 990], and it is expected to oscillate weakly under the pressure of the 1000 - yuan mark [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been reduced, the futures price has broken through and fallen, the main - contract basis has widened, the number of warehouse receipts has decreased, and the number of valid forecasts has remained unchanged [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The market supply has increased as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Demand is weak, inventory is at a high level, and the cost center has moved down [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is recommended to focus on the range of [1140 - 1180], suppressed by the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages [30]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda has remained stable, the futures price has been weak, the basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The price of liquid chlorine has risen, and some enterprises may postpone maintenance. Supply is expected to increase, and demand from the alumina industry is weakening [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation is provided in the given text. Methanol - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 2439 yuan/ton (+108), and the main 09 - contract closed at 2389 yuan/ton (+99). The basis and monthly spread have changed [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price has risen, but there are concerns about negative feedback from MTO demand. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is limited [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation is provided in the given text.

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1357元/吨，震荡下行 趋势；纯碱开工率86.81%，个别企业负荷调整，窄幅增加；纯 碱厂家总库存168.6万吨，周上升5.9万吨；浮法玻璃开工率 75.68%，周度-0.34%；全国浮法玻璃均价11197元/吨，环比上 日-3元/吨；全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6968.5万重箱，环比 下降0.1%。评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，沙河市场 部分小板价格下调，市场需求乏力，交投偏淡。国内纯碱市场 走势偏弱，成交一般，装置运行正常，个别企业负荷恢复，产 量稳步提升，下游需求不温不火，按需为主，低价成交为主。 预计纯碱09合约短期震荡偏弱，上方压力1170一线，建议观望 或反弹短线做空。 【短评-白银】 4月欧元区工业与贸易遭遇显著冲击，这很 可能是受美国关税政策的影响，同时也挑战了经济学家此前关 于"欧元区在经济动荡中表现稳健"的观点。欧盟统计局发布 的数据显示，4月欧盟工业产出环比下降2.4%，远超市场预期的 1.7%跌幅，且工业各领域均出现萎缩。评：全球经济下行压力 持续加大，经济基本面利空白银。地缘政治激化，也利空白 银。但是白银是否会跟 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a strong and volatile trend last week, with a slight overall increase. Looking ahead, there are uncertainties in the macro - aspect. The supply side of rubber is supported to some extent by weather, but the demand side has not improved significantly, and there is potential supply pressure in the future. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Key factors to focus on include geopolitical impacts, weather disturbances in rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, progress of zero - tariff policies, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [8][90] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber contract RU2509 ranged from 13,565 to 14,000 yuan/ton, showing a strong and volatile trend with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of June 13, 2025, it was reported at 13,875 yuan/ton, up 225 points or 1.65% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of June 13, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 13,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,500 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,310 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [18][22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two shrank slightly. As of June 13, 2025, the basis was maintained at 25 yuan/ton, 75 yuan/ton less than last week [27] Important Market Information - Geopolitical: On June 13, local time, the "Israel - Iran conflict" broke out, causing a shock in the global market. Crude oil prices soared by more than 13% and then declined, safe - haven assets such as gold rose significantly, and global stock markets fell collectively [34] - US Economic Data: In May, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year; the PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year; the initial jobless claims last week were 248,000, the highest since October 5, 2024 [35][36] - Global Economic Outlook: The World Bank lowered the global GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, and Fitch adjusted the global sovereign rating outlook for 2025 from "neutral" to "deteriorating" [36][37] - Sino - US Economic and Trade: From June 9 to 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK, achieving new progress in resolving each other's economic and trade concerns [37] - China's Economic Data: In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. From January to May, the export of China's equipment manufacturing products reached 6.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [38] - China's Automobile Market: In May, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. The export of automobiles in May was 551,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 2.49 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [39][40] Supply - Side Situation - As of April 30, 2025, the production in Vietnam's main producing area increased significantly compared with the previous month; the production in China's main producing area increased significantly; the production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and India's main producing areas decreased slightly compared with the previous month; the production in Thailand's main producing area decreased significantly compared with the previous month. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in April 2025 was 505,200 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous month [44] - As of April 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 743,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%; the cumulative production was 2.947 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.3% [48][52] - As of April 30, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.35% [57] Demand - Side Situation - As of June 12, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 77.98%, an increase of 4.12% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 61.24%, a decrease of 2.23% from last week [59] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6188 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.88%; the monthly sales volume was 2.5896 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.18% [63][66] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales volume was 87,667, a year - on - year increase of 6.52% and a month - on - month decrease of 21.36% [71] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 102.002 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 57.39 million, a month - on - month decrease of 7.87% [74][80] Inventory - Side Situation - As of June 13, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 193,070 tons, 460 tons less than last week [88] - As of June 8, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.275 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,000 tons or 0.4%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 762,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 513,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [88] - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 605,500 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons or 0.67% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 85,600 tons, a decrease of 1.5%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decrease of 0.54% [88] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period, but recent weather in the main producing areas has affected rubber tapping, and rubber imports have increased significantly [89] - Demand: Last week, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises rebounded slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. The all - steel tire inventory decreased, and the semi - steel tire inventory increased. The automobile market showed good performance in May, with a significant increase in export growth, while heavy - truck sales were average [89] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both decreased slightly [89] 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a strong and volatile trend last week, with a slight overall increase. Considering the macro and fundamental aspects, it is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term, and key factors need to be closely monitored [90] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation this week. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider range - bound operations [9][91]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant increase in gold prices, rising from 3400 to 3446, driven primarily by market sentiment and news events [2][3] - The gold market is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with key support levels at 3420 and 3380, indicating that as long as these levels hold, the bullish sentiment will persist [4] - The strategy for the upcoming week is to remain bullish on gold, focusing on low-entry positions while avoiding chasing highs, with a target of 3500 if the geopolitical situation escalates [2][5] Group 2: Silver Market Outlook - The silver market has shown a correction after reaching a peak of 37, with a recommendation to avoid chasing highs and consider light short positions around 36.5 [6] - The support level for silver is identified at 35.2, and a break below this level could indicate a shift in market sentiment [6] - Domestic silver prices should not be pursued above 9000, with a suggestion to consider short positions above 8900 to capture potential adjustments [6] Group 3: Oil Market Trends - The oil market has been on a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 77.5, with expectations for continued bullish momentum [7] - Key support levels for oil are set at 72 and 68, with a strategy to buy on dips as long as these levels hold [7] - Domestic fuel oil has also shown bullish behavior, with a recommendation to maintain long positions, targeting new highs above 3200 [7]

Market Overview - The overall market declined last week, with the Wind All A Index and the CSI A500 both down by 0.27% [1] - The average daily trading volume in the market increased to 1.37 trillion, showing a week-on-week rise [1] Industry Performance - In the CITIC primary industry sectors, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and pharmaceuticals led the gains, while food and beverage, computers, and building materials saw declines [1] Trade Relations - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, with a framework agreement reached to implement the consensus from the June 5 call between the two countries' leaders [1] - The US expressed a desire to reach a resolution with China regarding rare earth issues, and China has approved some export license applications related to rare earths [1] - Overall, the dialogue mechanism between China and the US is progressing in an orderly manner, with manageable short-term market impacts [1] Geopolitical Risks - The sixth round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US scheduled for the 15th has been canceled, leading to heightened tensions in the Middle East and escalating geopolitical risks [1] Domestic Macro Data - In domestic macroeconomic data, May exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, but exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5% [2] - Both CPI and PPI showed negative year-on-year growth in May, indicating that inflation levels are still in a bottoming phase [2] - M1 growth reached 2.3%, the highest in nearly a year, while M2 growth remained stable, indicating overall liquidity is maintained [2] International Macro Data - In the US, May CPI data was below market expectations for the fourth consecutive month, and PPI showed moderate increases, suggesting mild inflationary pressures [2] - President Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve for interest rate cuts, with an announcement regarding the next Fed chair expected soon [2] Investment Opportunities - The ongoing geopolitical tensions may create short-term market volatility, but there could be "correction opportunities" following any mispricing [2] - Investors are advised to focus on stable income-generating assets such as the 10-year Treasury ETF, cash flow ETF, and dividend state-owned enterprise ETF [2]

Group 1 - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated, with Iran launching missile attacks on Israel, marking a significant increase in hostilities [1][7][11] - Iranian forces have reportedly fired over 270 missiles at various locations in Israel, resulting in casualties and damage [13][21] - Israel has responded with airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, including missile production facilities and leadership figures [19][24][22] Group 2 - Oil prices have surged due to the heightened tensions, with Brent crude rising by 5.5% and WTI crude increasing by over 6% at one point [3] - The conflict has implications for global oil markets, as instability in the Middle East often leads to fluctuations in oil prices [3][5] - Gold prices have also seen an uptick, with spot gold rising approximately 0.3% to surpass $3,440 per ounce [6] Group 3 - U.S. President Trump has expressed a belief that a potential agreement between Iran and Israel is possible, despite the ongoing conflict [2][26] - Trump has indicated that the U.S. is not currently involved in the military actions but may intervene in the future [2][26] - The situation has drawn international attention, with calls for mediation from figures like Russian President Putin [26]