Market Outlook - Bank of America Merrill Lynch CIO's capital market outlook suggests fiscal stimulus offsetting tariff impacts [1] - The report views AI from a historical perspective, comparing it to the advent of calculators [1] - Fixed income opportunities are present before potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1]

隔夜，现货黄金价格强势突破3400美元关口，盘中最高触及3433.37美元，创下6月16日以来新高，收盘上涨1%至3431.59美元。今日亚市盘中，黄金窄幅 震荡，目前在3433美元附近徘徊。 美日达成贸易协议！ 隔夜，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数上涨0.40%，报收于44502.44点；纳斯达克指数下跌0.39%，报收于20892.69点；标普500 指数上涨0.06%，报收于6309.62点，再创新高。 消息面上，关税再度迎来重磅消息。 今年以来，特朗普多次批评鲍威尔并威胁解除其美联储主席职务，以此施压美联储降息。近期，特朗普政府又频繁提及美联储花费25亿美元翻修办公大楼 且"成本超支"一事，对鲍威尔"加码逼宫"。 当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体宣布美国与日本达成贸易协议。原定25%的对等关税税率将下调至15%，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元 并放开大米等农产品市场。 对此，日本首相石破茂表示，将根据需要与特朗普进行会谈，已收到日本贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正的初步报告。但他拒绝置评有关谈判细节的问题。 日本分析人士认为，美国提出的高额关税对日本来说后果是"极其严峻"的。对外 ...

Group 1: AI Technology and Investment Opportunities - Morgan Stanley's report highlights the expanding impact of AI technology across over 3,600 global stocks, indicating significant alpha opportunities in relative returns and earnings revisions [1] - The report recommends focusing on four categories of stocks: those with increased AI importance and exposure, stocks where AI is a core investment logic, AI adopters with pricing power, and stocks with the highest AI importance and pricing power [1] Group 2: Global Data Center Growth - Global data center capacity is projected to grow by 23% annually by 2030, with the U.S. contributing 60% of this growth, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia are expected to expand their capacities by 6-7 times [1] - Major U.S. tech companies' AI capital expenditures are expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 19% from 2024 to 2029, driven by four major cloud service providers, although challenges such as energy supply and GPU availability remain [1] Group 3: AI Financing and Semiconductor Market - By 2028, global data center investments are expected to reach $2.9 trillion, with a financing gap of $1.5 trillion that will primarily be filled by the credit market, including $800 billion from private credit [2] - The easing of export restrictions on lower-end AI GPUs by the U.S. is expected to benefit companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom in the Chinese market, with Nvidia's revenue in China projected to reach $25-35 billion by 2025 [2] Group 4: U.S. Economic and Taxation Outlook - The Inflation Reduction Act's tax provisions may significantly lower U.S. corporate cash tax rates, potentially bringing overall cash tax rates down to single digits due to immediate deductions [2] - Tariffs are impacting core commodity prices, with significant price increases observed in categories like appliances and furniture, leading to an expected rise in core PCE inflation by approximately 60 basis points by 2025 [2] Group 5: Currency Strategy and Chinese Economic Forecast - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate further, with potential increases in the euro/dollar exchange rate if hedging ratios return to historical averages [3] - China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been adjusted upward by 30 basis points to 4.8%, although a slowdown is anticipated in the second half of the year [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the U.S. basic tariff rate will increase from 10% to 15%, with a 50% tariff on copper and key minerals, potentially exacerbating inflation and pressuring economic growth [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth to reflect the new tariff assumptions, indicating that tariffs will raise core inflation by 1.7% over 2-3 years [2] - The firm now forecasts a core inflation rate of 3.3% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 3.4%, and anticipates GDP growth of 1% for 2025, impacted by tariffs [2] Group 2 - Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan setting tariffs on imported goods at 15%, including automobiles, which are a major component of the trade deficit [3] - A separate agreement with the Philippines sets a tariff rate of 19%, similar to that agreed with Indonesia, indicating a trend of lower tariffs in Southeast Asia compared to Vietnam's 20% benchmark [3] - Trump praised the trade agreements as significant victories, claiming the deal with Japan is potentially the largest trade agreement in history [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs expects the effective tariff rate in the U.S. to rise by 16 percentage points this year, indicating a slight upward risk to inflation and a slight downward risk to growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, stated that trade agreements represent a significant step forward for the economy [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Economic prospects will always have both upward and downward risks [1] - The impact of tariffs on the economy remains uncertain [1] - The upcoming economic outlook report will reflect the implications of the trade agreement [1]

Stock Market & Financial Performance - Tesla's stock closed at $332.11, up 1.10% [2] - GM's Q2 2025 profits are projected to shrink by 35%, from $2.9 billion to $1.9 billion, due to 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts [2] - Tariffs are expected to cost GM $4 billion to $5 billion annually [2] - Stellantis reported a $2.7 billion loss in the first half of the year due to tariffs [2] Impact of Tariffs - GM faces significant losses due to tariffs on imported parts, while Tesla is less affected because its cars sold in the US are manufactured domestically [2] - Tesla still imports 20-30% of its parts, leading to increased costs [2] - Goldman Sachs reports that import car prices may increase by $5,000 to $15,000 due to tariffs [2] Tesla's Q2 2025 Earnings Call Key Investor Concerns - Robotaxi performance and expansion plans, including regulatory hurdles and consumer acceptance [2] - Technical and regulatory obstacles for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) [2] - Optimus current tasks and production timeline, aiming for thousands of robots in factories by the end of 2025 and external sales starting in 2026 [2] - Plans for cheaper Tesla models based on existing platforms to stimulate demand, especially in markets like India [2][3] - Timing of unsupervised FSD availability for customer vehicles and potential hardware upgrades for HW3 owners [2] Tesla Production and Sales - In Spain, the Model 3 RWD is available for €25,000 with government subsidies and Tesla incentives [3] - Honda and Acura EV owners can now use Tesla's Supercharger network with an adapter [3] - Lucid Motors Air models will also be able to use the Tesla Supercharger network with a dedicated adapter from July 31, achieving up to 50 kW charging speeds [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the U.S. debt market, with a focus on the recent fluctuations in bond yields, particularly the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury yields [4] - It also discusses the impact of geopolitical events, such as tariff negotiations involving the Philippines and the EU's potential countermeasures against the U.S. [4] - The report notes the performance of major stock indices, including the Nasdaq and Dow Jones, indicating a mixed market sentiment [5] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2016.00, down by 1.75% [5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 20892.69, down by 0.39%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44502.44, up by 0.40% [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price was reported at 68.67, down by 0.78%, and the London gold spot price was at 3431.20, up by 1.02% [5] - The U.S. dollar index was at 97.36, down by 0.49%, and the exchange rate for USD to RMB was 7.18, down by 0.02% [5] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25130.03, up by 0.54%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was at 9075.60, up by 0.39% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3581.86, up by 0.62%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index was at 2188.95, up by 0.58% [5] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4118.96, up by 0.82%, and the ChiNext Index was at 2310.86, up by 0.61% [5]

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overseas, the US dollar index continues to decline, and global risk appetite has generally increased. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stock indices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; government bonds are at a high level and volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **General situation**: Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields are falling, and global risk appetite is rising. Domestically, economic growth is higher than expected in H1 but slows in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Assets**: Stock indices are volatile and slightly stronger, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Government bonds are at a high level and volatile, and cautious observation is advised. For commodities, black metals are expected to rebound from low levels, non - ferrous metals are expected to rebound, energy and chemicals are volatile, and precious metals are at a high level and volatile, with cautious long positions recommended for relevant sectors [2]. Stock Indices - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as hydropower, engineering machinery, and civil explosives and cement, the domestic stock market continues to rise [3]. - **Fundamentals and policy**: Economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but consumption and investment slow down in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers are strengthened. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market trend**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline and other factors support the strength of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down. The volatility of precious metals is expected to increase, and they are short - term strong. Gold's medium - and long - term upward support pattern remains unchanged, and its strategic allocation value is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Policy expectations are strengthened, and steel prices continue to rebound. The real demand is weak in the short term, and the demand for plates is stronger than that for building materials. Speculative demand has increased. The output of five major steel products has decreased, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it is recommended to view it with a volatile and slightly stronger mindset [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounds. Under the policy expectation, the black metal sector rises, driving the iron ore price up. The steel demand is in the off - season, but steel mill profits are high. The iron ore supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The cost of silicon manganese production in southern factories is high, and the production profit is low. The cost of silicon iron has increased slightly, and the production rhythm is stable. Short - term, the prices may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract rises significantly. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, the demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the supply - demand pattern. Short - term, the price is supported [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract price hits the daily limit. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The price is supported by the "anti - involution" policy [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan boosts sentiment. The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time, and there is uncertainty. Short - term, the plan is positive for copper prices [10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, it is weak in the near term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document boosts market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited, and the increase is expected to be limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased. The industry is in a loss state, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is better than expected, and the mine supply tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract rises significantly. The production has increased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the re - pricing of the industry chain. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The industry is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the market should pay attention to the margin adjustment [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As the US trade negotiation deadline approaches, the oil price has fallen for three consecutive days. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and be in a weak and volatile state [15]. - **PX**: PX follows the upstream raw materials and is in a range - bound state. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PTA**: The spot is weak, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is driven by the "anti - involution" resonance but has limited upside. There is a risk of production cuts due to low processing fees [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported at a certain level. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is slightly lower, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [16]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang has risen and then fallen slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The price is short - term strong under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the upside is limited [17][18]. - **PP**: The PP price is slightly adjusted. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the upside is limited [18]. - **PL**: The propylene futures are newly listed, and the price is affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is large, and the price increase driver is limited [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE is adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price may rebound in the short - term but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Urea**: The urea price has risen with the market sentiment. Fundamentally, the demand is weakening, and the supply is loose. The price is expected to rise in the short - term but be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to weather conditions. After a short - term heatwave, there are expected to be showers, which may limit crop stress [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal is expected to have a pattern of inventory accumulation and weak basis. The rapeseed meal consumption is far below expectations, and the inventory is slow to decline. The short - term market is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The rapeseed oil has high port inventory and slow circulation. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may widen [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of palm oil has increased, and the futures price has risen. The short - term market is bullish, but the resistance to price increases has increased. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the export improvement is less than expected [22].

Core Viewpoint - Texas Instruments Inc. faces concerns over the sustainability of demand driven by tariffs, despite a third-quarter earnings forecast that exceeds most expectations [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company predicts third-quarter revenue between $4.45 billion and $4.8 billion, with an average analyst expectation of $4.57 billion [4]. - Revenue grew by 16% in the last quarter, but executives are uncertain how much of this was due to customers purchasing products to avoid tariffs [3][4]. - Earnings per share for the third quarter are estimated at approximately $1.48, slightly below the average expectation [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Analysts expressed concerns about a more pessimistic outlook for demand, particularly in the automotive market, which has not yet recovered [5][6]. - The Chinese market saw a 32% revenue growth in the second quarter, but executives are cautious about the current quarter's performance [7]. - Texas Instruments holds a leading position in the analog chip market, which converts real-world signals into electronic signals, making its reports significant indicators of industry demand [7]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company remains confident in its strategy, believing that opportunities outweigh challenges, despite the cautious tone regarding future demand [5]. - Texas Instruments has invested heavily in new production facilities to enhance resilience amid increasing trade barriers [8]. - Approximately 20% of the company's revenue comes from China, where competition from local chip manufacturers is intensifying [7][8].

日本贸易谈判代表赤泽亮回应特朗普关税：任务已完成。 ...