Core Viewpoint - Vietnam presents unique opportunities for investment due to its rapidly growing economy, young population, and increasingly open business environment, but it also poses significant risks that require careful navigation [2][6]. Group 1: Market Characteristics - Vietnam's industrial upgrade is lagging behind consumer upgrade, providing opportunities for Chinese brands to establish a foothold, as seen with Anta becoming the third-largest sports brand after Nike and Adidas [3]. - The population distribution in Vietnam is characterized by fewer large cities and more towns, contrasting with Indonesia and Thailand, which affects retail dynamics [5]. - Offline retail dominates the market with a 90% share compared to 10% for online, with Shopee and TikTok e-commerce holding significant market shares of 50% and 30% respectively [5]. Group 2: Challenges for Entering the Market - High failure rates for companies entering Vietnam are often due to compliance issues, market misjudgment, and a lack of long-term commitment [8][9]. - Many businesses mistakenly apply domestic success strategies to Vietnam, underestimating local market conditions and consumer expectations, particularly in sectors like maternal and infant care and skincare [9][10]. - The perception of Vietnam as a dumping ground for low-quality products is outdated, as the market is evolving with higher consumer standards [9]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Companies should prioritize compliance and long-term investment strategies rather than seeking quick profits through short-term partnerships [10][11]. - Avoiding price wars among Chinese brands is crucial, as this internal competition can hinder overall market growth and brand development [12]. - A thorough understanding of local market dynamics, consumer behavior, and retail structures is essential for successful market entry and sustainability in Vietnam [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the power sports industry, indicating it is in a growth phase driven by increased consumer spending and demand for recreational vehicles [4]. Core Insights - The motorcycle industry is experiencing a recovery in overseas demand, particularly in Europe and emerging markets, while Japanese, Indian, and Chinese companies are seeing growth. In contrast, European and American brands are under pressure [2][3]. - The four-wheeler market is also witnessing a rebound in demand, but leading brands are facing challenges due to high inventory levels and increased competition, leading to a decline in profit margins [3]. - The report anticipates continued robust recovery in motorcycle demand through 2025, with increased competition in overseas markets, providing opportunities for Chinese companies to gain market share [2][3]. Summary by Sections Two-Wheelers - The demand for motorcycles in Europe and emerging markets is recovering, with Japanese, Indian, and Chinese brands performing strongly. The global motorcycle market saw a sustained increase in demand in Q4 2024, with emerging markets driving growth [2][6]. - The motorcycle consumption structure is changing, with increased competition in mature markets leading to a divergence in pricing, profit per unit, and profit margins among brands [2][13]. Four-Wheelers - The demand for four-wheelers in Europe and North America is recovering, but leading brands are struggling with high inventory levels and competitive pressures, resulting in a notable decline in profit margins [3][6]. - Secondary brands like Chuanfeng and Kawasaki are benefiting from effective inventory management and are expected to continue gaining market share [3][6]. Outlook - The report projects ongoing recovery in both two-wheeler and four-wheeler demand, with a notable divergence in brand performance. Japanese companies are expected to exceed initial sales and profit forecasts due to favorable currency exchange rates and recovering demand in Europe and emerging markets [3][6]. - The competition in overseas markets is expected to intensify, with Chinese companies likely to capture more global market share [3][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the all-terrain vehicle and mid-to-large displacement motorcycle segments, particularly Spring Wind Power and TaoTao Industries, which have advantages in local operations and cost control [4].

Core Viewpoint - The best investment opportunities in stocks often arise during periods of significant uncertainty, where the perceived risk is high but the actual risk may be lower than expected [1]. Case Study 1: NetEase - In 2001, NetEase's stock price fell from 15 to 1 due to market panic and a lawsuit, despite having cash reserves of 5.6 billion, which was twice its market value of 3 billion [2][3]. - Investor Duan Yongping saw four angles of opportunity: cash reserves, talent acquisition, potential in the gaming industry, and the extreme drop in stock price [4]. - The investment was characterized by a low downside risk and high upside potential, leading to a significant profit when the company turned around [5]. Case Study 2: Kweichow Moutai - From 1998 to 2003, Moutai's stock price fell significantly due to industry-wide issues, with market sentiment predicting a decline in demand for baijiu [6]. - Moutai's production was limited, and even if the overall industry declined, it could still maintain sales due to its premium positioning [7]. - The investment was seen as having limited downside risk and unlimited upside potential, resulting in a substantial increase in profits and market value over the following years [8]. Case Study 3: Great Wall Motors - In 2008, Great Wall Motors faced losses and market skepticism as it shifted focus to SUVs, a segment that was only 5% of the market at the time [10]. - The strategic pivot was based on the belief that SUVs would become a significant market segment, similar to trends seen in the U.S. [11]. - The investment was characterized by high potential returns, leading to a dramatic increase in profits and market capitalization in subsequent years [12]. Case Study 4: Li Ning - In 2015, Li Ning returned to a struggling company facing significant losses and stock price declines [13][14]. - The brand's strength and the cyclical nature of the apparel industry provided a foundation for potential recovery [15][16]. - The investment proved successful, with significant profit growth and market value increase over six years [17]. Case Study 5: Brilliance China Automotive - Brilliance's stock price fell over 90% from 2017 to 2022 due to market concerns about the automotive industry and its financial health [18]. - Despite the challenges, the company held a significant stake in BMW China and had substantial cash reserves, presenting a unique investment opportunity [19][20]. - The investment was characterized by limited downside risk and significant upside potential, resulting in a strong recovery in stock price [21]. Case Study 6: Xiaomi Group - In 2021, Xiaomi announced its entry into the automotive sector, leading to skepticism and a sharp decline in stock price [21][22]. - However, Xiaomi's advantages included a strong IoT platform and a capable leadership team, suggesting potential for future growth [23][24]. - The investment was viewed as having a high probability of success at a low price point, indicating significant upside potential [25]. Case Study 7: China Feihe - China Feihe's stock price fell significantly due to declining birth rates and market pessimism about the infant formula industry [25][26]. - The company maintained strong revenue and cash flow, with a solid market position and potential for growth in both domestic and international markets [27][28]. - The investment was characterized by limited downside risk and substantial upside potential, making it an attractive opportunity [29][30][31][32][33][34].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful IPO of Mixue Ice City, which achieved a remarkable market debut with a 43.2% increase in stock price, reaching a market capitalization of over 109.3 billion HKD, and emphasizes the company's leading position in the global fresh beverage industry through a high-quality and affordable business model [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - As of December 31, 2024, Mixue Ice City operates 46,479 stores globally, with a retail sales volume of approximately 58.3 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.9% [2]. - The net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 3.5 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 42.3%, with a gross margin of 32.4% and a net margin of 18.7%, both significantly above industry averages [3]. - The company reported revenues of approximately 18.7 billion CNY and net profits of 3.5 billion CNY for the first nine months of 2024, showing year-on-year growth of 21.2% and 42.3% respectively [6]. Group 2: Market Strategy - Mixue Ice City focuses on a product price range of 2-8 CNY, targeting the vast underdeveloped market, with a simplified product SKU of around 30, emphasizing core beverage offerings [5]. - The company has established a strong presence in lower-tier cities, with 57.2% of its stores located in third-tier cities and below, indicating significant growth potential in these markets [5][6]. - The average daily retail sales per store have shown a consistent upward trend, reaching approximately 4,184.4 CNY in the first nine months of 2024 [7]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - Mixue Ice City has developed a robust supply chain system, with a global procurement network covering 38 countries and five production bases in China, achieving 100% self-sourcing of core beverage ingredients [10][11]. - The company maintains a significant warehousing capacity of approximately 35,000 square meters across 27 warehouses, enabling efficient logistics and distribution [10]. - The IPO proceeds will primarily be allocated to supply chain expansion, with 66% of the funds aimed at enhancing factory, warehouse, and cold chain logistics capabilities [11]. Group 4: Global Expansion and Future Outlook - The global fresh beverage market is projected to grow from 779.1 billion USD in 2023 to 1,103.9 billion USD by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.2%, presenting significant opportunities for Mixue Ice City [8]. - The company has over 4,800 stores overseas, positioning itself as the largest fresh beverage brand in Southeast Asia, and aims to enhance its international presence through its Hong Kong listing [8]. - Mixue Ice City is redefining "consumption upgrade" by demonstrating that true enhancement lies in supply chain efficiency rather than merely increasing price points, aiming for a broader reach in quality living for consumers [13].

Core Viewpoint - Nestlé has acquired Xu Fu Ji, marking another domestic brand moving into foreign ownership, which reflects ongoing trends in the Chinese candy market [2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - The control of Xu Fu Ji was relinquished by the Xu family 14 years ago, with Nestlé acquiring 60% of the company for $1.7 billion, positioning itself in the largest candy enterprise in China [4]. - The Xu family, originally from Taiwan, established Xu Fu Ji and expanded into mainland China in the 1990s, successfully capturing the high-end candy market with their New Year candy products [6][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese candy market, despite a shrinking trend, remains significant, valued at nearly 100 billion yuan, attracting interest from major players like Mars and PepsiCo [4]. - The market has seen a decline in festive candy consumption, dropping from 50% to 30% over the past decade, with the overall candy market size decreasing from 90 billion yuan in 2017 to 85 billion yuan in 2023 [9][10]. Group 3: Company Evolution - Xu Fu Ji has transitioned from a traditional candy company to a broader snack enterprise, introducing products like sugar-free chocolate and aiming for over 10 billion yuan in sales by 2027 [10]. - The company has been recognized for its growth potential within Nestlé's portfolio, contributing 16.1% to Nestlé's sales in the Greater China region [7][13]. Group 4: Leadership Changes - Following Nestlé's initial investment, the Xu family gradually stepped back from management, with professional managers taking over leadership roles to adapt to market changes [12][13]. - The recent acquisition of the remaining 40% stake by Nestlé signifies the complete transition of Xu Fu Ji into the Nestlé ecosystem, with the Xu family's influence now fully removed [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global tourism market is experiencing a robust revival, marking a return to normalcy and a new interpretation of a beautiful life, with Chinese high-spending travelers seeking exquisite experiences beyond mere sightseeing [3][6] - The research highlights a significant increase in outbound travel intentions among Chinese consumers, particularly among the younger generation and those from second-tier cities [50][55] - The report emphasizes the importance of personalized luxury services and deep cultural experiences to meet the evolving preferences of high-spending travelers [70][72] Summary by Sections Background and Research Methodology - The research is based on a survey conducted among 810 platinum members of the Tongcheng travel platform, reflecting the preferences and behaviors of high-spending Chinese travelers [6][7] - The survey was conducted over 11 days, from November 11 to 21, 2024, and aimed to capture the evolving consumption preferences of this demographic [6][7] Demographic Characteristics - The majority of respondents are aged between 35-54 years, with 62% being male, indicating a strong spending potential [39][40] - 76.2% of respondents hold a bachelor's degree or higher, showcasing a well-educated demographic with significant disposable income [44] - 38% of respondents are from second-tier cities, highlighting the growing influence of these markets [39][46] Outbound Travel Preferences - Over 70% of respondents plan to travel abroad within the next year, with a strong inclination towards multiple trips [50][55] - The report indicates that safety concerns are the primary factor affecting travel intentions, followed by time constraints and visa application difficulties [61][63] - The preferred travel types include independent travel (47%), destination group tours (22%), and self-driving tours (9%) [80][81] Insights and Recommendations - Digital platforms like Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and WeChat are crucial touchpoints throughout the travel journey, necessitating an integrated online and offline marketing strategy [126] - Tailored communication strategies are essential to effectively reach different demographic groups, particularly tech-savvy younger travelers and quality-seeking individuals from second-tier cities [127] - Emphasizing craftsmanship, uniqueness, and traditional heritage can attract high-value travelers who prioritize quality and sustainability in their choices [129]

作 者丨易佳颖 编 辑丨包芳鸣 蜜雪冰城的"甜蜜事业"再攀高峰。 3月3日，蜜雪冰城股份有限公司（简称"蜜雪冰城"）在香港交易所上市。蜜雪冰城每股发行 价为2 0 2 . 5 0港元，募资净额为3 2 . 9 1亿港元。截至当日收盘，蜜雪冰城大涨4 3 . 2 1%，总市值 1 0 9 3亿港元。 无论是此前招股期间荣膺"冻资王"的盛况，还是上市首日股价的亮眼表现， 蜜雪冰城都打破 了新式茶饮企业上市即破发的魔咒，为沉寂多时的茶饮资本市场注入了一股久违的活力。 "蜜雪冰城有着鲜明的价值创造的特质，对消费者、对生态合作伙伴的普惠是蜜雪冰城创造的 最核心价值。"高瓴投资团队解释道，2 0 1 9年前后，消费市场谈论最多的，是诸如消费升级、 新消费等话题。彼时，蜜雪冰城已凭借加盟模式开设了4 0 0 0多家门店，但由于其聚焦下沉市 场，门店装修风格和产品外观并不 "高大上"，因而未受到外界的广泛关注。 "蜜雪冰城与其他茶饮品牌有着本质区别。 "在接受2 1世纪经济报道记者采访时，从打新散户 到餐饮业内人士，再到专业投资机构，多位受访者不约而同地表达了这一观点。虽然他们给 出的理由各不相同——有的强调其完善的供应链体 ...

营业3天，客流量达177.5万人次；日销售额最高过亿元，消费热度喜人。春节假期，位于河南许昌的胖 东来商超再次"出圈"，外地游客纷至沓来，被网友称为"不挂牌的5A级景区"。 小城商超何以跃升为"文旅地标"？在"大力提振消费"的背景下，它又带来怎样的启示？带着好奇，笔者 走进胖东来产业物流园。 尊重人的劳动，才能激发人的创造。在胖东来，具体制度由员工讨论制定，创新设计以员工姓名命名。 当个人价值得到充分认可，创意的生发、产能的提高，便如同一汪汪活水，滔滔不绝、持续涌流。 通过"解剖麻雀"可见，影响企业竞争力的更关键因素，乃是对品质的坚守、对产业链的重视、对人的尊 重。小米汽车之所以受到消费者青睐，答案正在于"找最优秀的供应商""保证最好的质量"。海底捞的相 关负责人也坦言，企业"最美的资产是人与人间的关系"，"要让大家在工作中找到价值感"。把对人的价 值的追寻、产品品质的坚守，体现在每一个工作细节中，并为之长期付出，这样的企业才能赢得消费 者。 如今，消费呈现"下沉"与"升级"并行的趋势，从大城市到县域，都蕴含着广阔市场机遇。无论何时何 地，要想在市场竞争中抢占先机，企业都必须沉下心来吸引人才、打磨品质。毕竟， ...

证券研究报告 | 公司 深度报告 2024年12月01日 签约客户可长按扫码阅读报告： 市场上对 涪陵榨菜的主要担忧在于公司及行业成长性放缓，同时历史上所体现的强提价能 力也有所减弱，估值修复难度大。行业层面看，增长放缓是事实，但包装化趋势下，新 消费场景、人群、渠道对行业增长仍有明显驱动。更重要的是，我们认为当前阶段应以 新的投资视角来看待公司投资逻辑，一方面公司业绩企稳，内部管理改善，竞争优势强 化，未来业绩更加平稳周期性减弱；另一方面公司现金流充裕，逐步进入资本开始减 弱，资本回报提升的战略新阶段。建议关注业绩企稳周期性弱化，投资回报提升拉动的 估值修复。 核心观点 行业层面：预期增速下降，包装化的趋势下关注消费力拐点 + 升级新方向。 虽然行业整体消费量增长放缓，但我国腌制品行业目前仍有一定增长驱动，主要体现在： 1 ） 行业规范性提升，包装化替代趋势延续； 2 ）健康趋势下轻盐产品兴起，产品接受度提升，拉动消费端需求增长； 3 ）消费场景、人群、渠道不断完善拓展，年轻群体消 费潜力得到挖掘，消费场景日益多元化，同时线上、餐饮等渠道拓展也带动了行业的进一步增长。 公司层面：根基牢固优势显著，管理变革催 ...

要点 市场此前对中国消费的讨论多集中在需求侧，且因传统意义上的一些所谓"高端消费"走弱，使得不少人得 出了"消费降级"的结论。但笔者认为，这一分析框架可能忽视了消费者群体变化引发的消费理念改变，而 由于供给端未及时跟上上述变化，使得当前的消费需求并未有效释放。随着经济高速增长期成长起来的 90/00后成为消费主力，中国消费者对国际品牌逐步"祛魅"，部分国产品牌有望摆脱此前的低价竞争策 略，品牌溢价将有望上升。 90/00后成消费主力，"国际大牌"的式微或是必然，"国潮"和情感型消费成消费的结构性增长点。 一方 面，与60-80后相比，90/00后成长于改革开放后的经济高速增长期，所谓"国际大牌"对其吸引力并不强； 另一方面，无论是其成长过程中受到的中国传统文化的熏陶，还是这一代人"追求个性"的特点，都导致其 对于能满足其情感需求、精神需求的消费品和服务较为青睐；此外，互联网对这一代人的影响巨大，也使 得受到其认可的消费品很容易在这一群体中成为"爆款"。 但供给端未及时跟上消费趋势的变化，过度夸大了"消费降级"效应，也抑制了需求的释放。 一方面，存 量的城市布局——如许多商业综合体等——仍以吸引"国际大牌"入驻 ...