11月14日晚间，美股开盘后集体下跌，不过，纳指与标普500指数跌幅迅速收窄，其中纳指翻红，而道 指跌幅仍较大。美联储官员再度对12月降息"鹰派"表态。此外，据央视新闻报道，瑞士联邦委员会宣 布，美国对瑞士产品征收的关税从目前的39%降至15%。 截至发稿，道指跌幅超0.7%，纳指翻红。 中概股在调整后跌幅也有所收窄，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌超0.2%，盛大科技、小马智行跌超4%，雾 芯科技大涨超9%。 除美股之外，黄金与白银也处于下跌通道之中，COMEX黄金跌逾2%，COMEX白银暴跌超4%。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，瑞士联邦委员会宣布，美国对瑞士产品征收的关税从目前的39%降至 15%。 瑞士联邦委员兼经济、教研部长帕姆兰率团于13日赴美同美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔举行贸易谈判。 据悉，此次谈判涉及把美国目前对众多瑞士商品征收的进口关税降至15%。 自2025年8月7日以来，美国对瑞士商品加征39%的进口关税。 此外，美联储官员施密德最新表示，进一步降息可能对通胀产生持久影响。他认为在制定政策时更倾向 于关注整体通胀率。 值得注意的是，在美联储10月的议息会议上，施密德对降息投下反对票。在谈到这一点时，他 ...

Market Overview - US stock indices opened significantly lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.12%, Nasdaq down 1.16%, and S&P 500 down 0.94% as of 22:37 Beijing time [1] - Major US tech stocks led the decline, with the Tech Giants Index down 1.15%. Tesla fell over 2%, while Nvidia, Google, and META each dropped over 1% as of 22:38 Beijing time [2] Precious Metals - Spot gold experienced a sharp decline of 2.83%, while spot silver plummeted 3.53%. COMEX gold fell by 3.4%, and COMEX silver dropped over 5% [2] - Current prices for precious metals include: - London Gold: 4053.09 (-2.83%) - London Silver: 50.44 (-3.53%) - COMEX Gold: 4051.90 (-3.40%) - COMEX Silver: 50.275 (-5.44%) [3] Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Outlook - Market analysts attribute the significant downturn in overseas stock and precious metals markets to several factors: 1. Hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials have reduced expectations for a rate cut in December [5] 2. Ongoing government shutdown in the US has led to missing economic data, complicating monetary policy decisions [5] 3. Increasing concerns regarding an artificial intelligence bubble [5] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in December, with current market expectations placing the probability of a cut below 50% [5] - Notable comments from Federal Reserve officials include: - Mary Daly stated it is too early to determine if a rate cut will occur before the December meeting, emphasizing the importance of upcoming data [6] - Neel Kashkari expressed a wait-and-see approach due to economic resilience and high inflation [6] - Beth Hammack raised concerns that further rate cuts could undermine the Fed's credibility in achieving the 2% inflation target [7]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月14日全球股市和贵金属市场受挫】11月14日，美联储官员鹰派信号浇灭市场对美国12月降息希 望，混乱数据日历和人工智能泡沫担忧，令全球股市和贵金属市场周五重创。从东京到巴黎、伦敦的蓝 筹股市场大幅下跌，英国市场因对预算案新担忧加剧痛苦。美国股指期货预示华尔街股市开盘黯淡，周 四已大幅下挫。 CIBC Markets外汇策略主管称，12月降息预期回到五五开，加上人工智能泡沫担忧， 破坏市场情绪稳定，本月市场情绪反复无常。白宫粉碎市场对美国状况很快清晰的希望，称10月美国失 业数据可能无法获得，加剧美联储暂停行动的看法。 ...

格隆汇11月14日｜美联储官员发出的鹰派信号浇灭了市场对美国12月降息的希望，再加上仍然混乱的数 据日历以及对人工智能泡沫的担忧，全球股市和贵金属市场周五遭遇重创。从东京到巴黎和伦敦的蓝筹 股市场均大幅下跌，对英国即将发布的预算案的新担忧加剧了英国市场的痛苦。美国股指期货预示着华 尔街股市将迎来黯淡的开盘，此前它们在周四已大幅下挫。 CIBC Markets外汇策略主管Jeremy Stretch 表示："我们对12月降息的预期又回到了五五开，这一点，再加上对人工智能泡沫的担忧，已经破坏了 市场情绪的稳定，本月市场情绪已变得反复无常。"与此同时，白宫粉碎了市场对美国经济状况很快会 更加清晰的希望，称10月份的美国失业数据可能永远无法获得，这加剧了美联储可能会暂停行动直到获 得更多明确信息的看法。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting paths of AI development in China and the US, highlighting China's potential to challenge the prevailing narrative dominated by Silicon Valley giants like OpenAI and Nvidia, particularly in terms of cost efficiency and innovation [4][6][24]. Group 1: AI Competition Landscape - Huang Renxun's statement about China potentially winning the AI race has sparked significant discussion, emphasizing the need for the US to accelerate its efforts in AI development [4][5]. - The article outlines two distinct paths in AI development: the high-cost, high-expectation model of US companies like Nvidia and OpenAI versus the efficiency-driven approach of Chinese firms such as DeepSeek and MiniMax [6][24]. - Chinese AI companies are seen as capable of "bursting" the AI bubble by focusing on practical applications and cost-effective solutions, suggesting that innovation can thrive without excessive spending [7][24]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Valuation - Concerns about an "AI bubble" are growing, with significant investments in infrastructure raising questions about the sustainability of high valuations in the sector [10][24]. - A report from Jefferies indicates that between 2023 and 2025, China's major cloud providers will spend $124 billion, which is 82% less than their US counterparts, while maintaining competitive performance in AI models [10][24]. - The article highlights that Chinese AI companies are achieving high returns on investment (ROI), with MiniMax's training costs being significantly lower than those of comparable US models, indicating a potential undervaluation of Chinese firms [24][29]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Chinese AI firms are rapidly innovating, with models like MiniMax M2 demonstrating superior performance at a fraction of the cost of US counterparts, leading to increased adoption among developers [18][22]. - The emergence of open-source models from Chinese companies is reshaping the competitive landscape, challenging the traditional closed-source model prevalent in Silicon Valley [24][28]. - MiniMax's annual recurring revenue (ARR) has reached $100 million, showcasing the successful transition from model development to product commercialization [29]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the narrative in the AI sector may shift from "scaling limits" to "efficiency limits," with Chinese companies poised to lead in this new paradigm [30][31]. - Long-term confidence in Chinese AI development is emphasized, as companies continue to refine their strategies and technologies to maximize output and minimize costs [31].

现如今，不仅仅是华尔街关于人工智能（AI）泡沫的警告声此起彼伏，就连AI企业高管也承认，他们 担心人工智能领域正在形成泡沫。这突显出该行业对估值飙升的担忧正日益加剧。 近段时间以来，市场一直在考虑这样一种观点，即太多的资本涌入人工智能热潮，导致收入和实际利润 前景不明朗，高估值也因此受到质疑。 事实上，到目前为止，有关估值过高的警告大多来自投资者和金融界领袖。高盛CEO所罗门（David Solomon）和摩根士丹利CEO泰德•匹克（Ted Pick）警告称，随着一些主要科技公司的估值达到历史高 点，可能出现回调。 然而，本周在里斯本举行的网络峰会科技大会上，那些自己也在开发人工智能的公司的首席执行官们也 表达了类似的担忧。德国AI企业DeepL的首席执行官Jarek Kutylowski在接受采访时表示："我认为这些 评估在某些地方被夸大了，我认为有迹象表明泡沫即将出现。" Picsart首席执行官Hovhannes Avoyan也表达了同样的观点。他一针见血地指出，"我们看到很多人工智 能公司在没有任何收入的情况下，估值却非常高"，并补充说这是一个"令人担忧的问题"。 他表示，市场重视那些"只有一些噪音和 ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, known for his successful bet against the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, has recently terminated the registration of his Scion fund with the SEC, drawing significant market attention due to his public challenges to the valuations of leading AI stocks [2][7][8]. Group 1: Fund Management and Market Position - Burry's Scion fund had previously disclosed holdings in put options for AI stocks like Palantir and Nvidia, indicating a bearish outlook on these companies [7][11]. - The fund's termination is interpreted by some analysts as a strategic exit from a market perceived to be in a bubble, reflecting Burry's historical caution against market excesses [14]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Market Commentary - Burry has criticized technology giants for allegedly manipulating depreciation schedules of their hardware to obscure the true impact of capital expenditures on their financial statements [7]. - He has publicly shared details of his put options, including 50,000 contracts for Palantir and 10,000 for Nvidia, highlighting a total investment of approximately $9.2 million in these positions [11][13]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Speculation - Burry has hinted at revealing more details about his investment strategy on November 25, suggesting that significant insights may be forthcoming [8]. - His recent social media activity, including a reference to the film "The Big Short," implies a belief that current market conditions mirror those leading up to the 2008 financial crisis [9].

Core Viewpoint - SoftBank's recent strategic moves, including the sale of its entire stake in NVIDIA and significant investments in OpenAI, indicate a shift towards prioritizing AI investments, positioning the company as a key player in the AI market [3][12][15]. Financial Performance - SoftBank reported a net profit of 2.5 trillion yen (approximately 162 billion USD) for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, exceeding market expectations [8]. - For the first half of fiscal year 2025, SoftBank's net sales reached 3.74 trillion yen, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, while net profit soared to 2.92 trillion yen, up 190.9% [9]. - The surge in performance was largely attributed to the Vision Fund's profit of 2.38 trillion yen in a single quarter, driven by investments in OpenAI and PayPal [10]. Strategic Asset Management - SoftBank's CFO stated that the sale of NVIDIA shares was part of an "asset monetization" strategy, aimed at maintaining financial stability while providing investment opportunities [8]. - The company sold its NVIDIA shares for 5.83 billion USD, marking a significant cash inflow [4][5]. - Following the sale, SoftBank's stock price increased significantly, rising over 338% since April, with a market capitalization exceeding 38 trillion yen (approximately 1.7 trillion RMB) [10]. Investment Focus - SoftBank is committing to invest an additional 22.5 billion USD in OpenAI, as part of its AI strategic layout [14]. - Since September 2024, SoftBank has been heavily investing in OpenAI, with a total planned investment of 40 billion USD, of which approximately 30 billion USD has already been contributed [14]. - The company is also diversifying its AI investments, including a 5.375 billion USD acquisition of ABB's robotics business and holding significant shares in Arm [14]. Market Sentiment and Concerns - The timing of SoftBank's divestment from NVIDIA coincides with rising concerns about a potential AI investment bubble, as market sentiment shifts [17][20]. - Despite strong performance from AI companies like NVIDIA, there are contrasting views on the sustainability of current valuations, with some analysts warning of parallels to the dot-com bubble [22]. - OpenAI's valuation has surged from 300 billion USD in March 2025 to 500 billion USD by October, raising questions about its profitability, as it reported annual revenues of only 12 billion USD against losses of 8 billion USD [23][24].

格隆汇11月12日｜在被问及市场是否处于人工智能泡沫时，澳洲联储副主席豪泽表示难以断言，并强调 市场崩盘并非他的基准预测。但他表示，"我们必须警惕这些金融指标有些已处于历史极值，这可能预 示着前景风险，也可能意味着我们确实正处于新范式之中。" ...

但此次出售的时机，让部分投资者进一步质疑AI行业的估值可能已脱离基本面。英伟达股价在早盘交 易中下跌逾2%，拖累了标普500指数。雪上加霜的是，AI云服务提供商CoreWeave(CRWV.US)因合同延 迟下调营收预期，其股价暴跌9%，加剧了市场恐慌情绪。 近几周，AI泡沫的议论声愈发高涨。摩根士丹利和高盛的CEO均警告股市可能面临回调，而因在2008 年金融危机前做空美国房地产市场闻名的对冲基金经理迈克尔·伯里，已对英伟达和Palantir(PLTR.US)发 起做空。 多位分析师指出，作为科技行业最大胆的投资者之一，孙正义此次出售股票，或许意味着他认为英伟达 的暴涨行情已开始降温。过去三年，英伟达股价累计飙升逾1200%，并于上月成为首家市值突破5万亿 美元的公司。 日本科技投资巨头软银集团周二披露，已出售所持全部3210万股英伟达股票，套现58亿美元。这一举措 震动了股市，加剧了市场对人工智能热潮可能已达顶峰的担忧，此前华尔街银行高管和知名卖空者已发 出相关警告。 周二，这家日本公司公布2025财年第二季度财报，季度销售净额 1.92 万亿日元，净利润达2.5万亿日元 (约合162亿美元)，远超分析师 ...