Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Pan Gongsheng will guide commercial banks to lower deposit interest rates [1] Group 2 - This action is expected to influence the overall banking sector's interest rate policies [1] - The adjustment in deposit rates may lead to changes in lending rates, impacting the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses [1]

证券研究报告 【平安证券】利率债5月报：关注利差压缩行情的相关机会 证券分析师 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519060001 郑子辰 投资咨询资格编号：S1060521090001 2025年5月6日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 摘要 美元资产受冲击，国内债券上涨、股市呈现韧性。4月以来全球贸易不确定性加剧，全球避险情绪升温、资产波动加大。整体看黄金价格大幅上涨， 资金流出美国导致美国股债汇承压；同时机构杠杆交易平仓进一步加剧美债在4%-4.5%之间波动。国内方面，债券上涨、股市呈现韧性。月初资金 利率快速下行20BP，10年国债收益率迅速下移15BP至1.65%附近，4月下旬以后各资产波动收敛。一季度经济呈现"开门红"，债市多头等待货币宽 松预期的兑现，债市空头则认为货币增量落地前赔率有限，多空力量比较均衡。机构行为方面，4月大行配债力度有所减弱，农商行进攻久期，基 金主要加仓信用债，险资小幅放缓配债节奏，挑选有估值优势的长久期地方债，理财规模下降略大于季节性，主要配置同业存单，管控思路相对 稳健。 存款利率降息如何影响债市？我们梳理了22年以来每一轮大行存款利率降息情况，规律如下：（1）时间上，每年 ...

一直以来，相信所有人都会有一个普遍的印象，在银行存钱时间越长利率越高，但是最近不少银行却出现了存5年不如存3年的现象，让人不禁想问这银行存 款到底是怎么回事？ 一、银行存5年不如存3年？ 据21世纪经济报道的消息，存款利率持续下行！融360数字科技研究院发布监测数据显示，2025年3月，银行整存整取存款3个月期平均利率为1.249%，6个 月期平均利率为1.449%，1年期平均利率为1.566%，2年期平均利率为1.666%，3年期平均利率为2.042%，5年期平均利率为1.883%，3年和5年的存款利率剪 刀差进一步加大。 与2月份相比，银行整存整取存款利率，3个月期增长0.4BP，6个月期增长0.4BP，1年期增长0.6BP，2年期增长0.3BP，3年期下降1.3BP，5年期下降2.5BP。 2025年3月，3年期、5年期的中长期限平均存款利率均下滑，延续下跌趋势。5年期平均存款利率继续大幅下降，但中短期平均存款利率略有回升。 融360数字科技研究院的分析师艾亚文认为，当前储户存储长期存款的意愿强烈，银行通过下调中长期存款利率，优化负债结构，应对存款定期化带来的成 本上升问题。 二、银行存款是怎么倒挂的这 ...

4月21日，福建华通银行将2年期、3年期、5年期个人定期存款挂牌利率分别调整为2%、2.45%、2.5%。 值得一提的是，该行于4月13日已下调3个月期、3年期、5年期个人定期存款挂牌利率至1.3%、2.7%、 2.6%。 值得注意的是，有银行4月份已经多次调整存款利率。其中，华瑞银行在4月份对中长期限的存款利率进 行了3次调整。 【深圳商报讯】（首席记者谢惠茜）存款利率持续下行。近日，多家中小银行再次宣布下调部分存款产 品利率，其中，有银行在短短一个月内已连续3次调整存款利率。连目前存款利率最为高企的民营银行 也纷纷大幅降低存款利率，存款利率开始逼近国有大行，部分期限存款利率甚至低于股份行。 近期，我国银行业迎来新一轮存款利率调整，多地中小银行密集下调存款利率，降幅在5个基点至170个 基点不等。 4月27日，清徐农商银行发布人民币存款执行利率调整公告，调整后3个月期、6个月期、1年期、2年 期、3年期、5年期整存整取存款实际执行利率分别为1%、1.2%、1.6%、1.7%、1.9%、1.9%。 在此之前，4月25日，德清农商银行也发布公告称，自4月30日起调整人民币储蓄存款执行利率，相比该 行3月公布的利 ...

Group 1 - The overall trend indicates that bank deposit rates are rapidly entering the "1 era," with deposits offering rates above 2% becoming scarce [1] - As of March 2025, the average deposit rates for various terms are as follows: 3-month at 1.249%, 6-month at 1.449%, 1-year at 1.566%, 2-year at 1.666%, 3-year at 2.042%, and 5-year at 1.883% [1] - There is a notable decline in the average deposit rates for 3-year and 5-year terms, while short-term rates have seen slight increases [1] Group 2 - Banks are reducing long-term deposit rates to mitigate the risk of high-interest liabilities during future interest rate declines, indicating an expectation of continued market rate decreases [2] - Since February 2025, bank deposit rates have generally declined, influenced by central bank policies aimed at curbing high-interest deposit acquisition [2] - The trend suggests that there is still room for further reductions in bank deposit rates due to multiple factors, including low market rates and the need for banks to control liability costs [2] Group 3 - Market interest rates are expected to remain on a downward trend, with potential further declines in deposit rates [3] - Individuals are advised to consider their risk tolerance and investment needs when allocating assets, with suggestions to diversify into cash management products, money market funds, and government bonds for stable returns [3] - For those with higher risk tolerance, it is recommended to consider increasing allocations to stocks, equity funds, and gold [3]

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management products are facing continuous pressure on yields due to the market-oriented adjustment of deposit interest rates, leading to a significant trend of "increased volume but decreased price" in the market for the first quarter of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - In the first quarter of 2025, a total of 7,481 new wealth management products were launched, an increase of 254 products compared to the previous quarter, with wealth management subsidiaries issuing 5,346 products, accounting for 71.46% of the market [2]. - The average performance benchmark for newly issued open-ended wealth management products has dropped to 2.25%, down 0.21 percentage points, while closed-end products have an average benchmark of 2.69%, down 0.06 percentage points [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - The decline in performance benchmarks reflects a decrease in market expectations for the future returns of underlying assets, influenced by low market interest rates, bond market fluctuations, and the implementation of self-discipline mechanisms for interbank deposit rates [3]. - The performance benchmarks for wealth management subsidiaries' newly issued open-ended and closed-end products are 2.25% and 2.75%, respectively, both showing a downward trend [2]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - Industry experts suggest that wealth management subsidiaries should innovate products by diversifying asset classes and investment strategies, focusing on investor needs, and enhancing investor education to improve competitiveness [4]. - Potential measures include leveraging policies that encourage investment in the stock market, upgrading existing product systems, and extending the duration of wealth management products to improve yield performance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows that nearly 80% of banks have a net interest margin (NIM) below the self-regulatory mechanism's warning line of 1.8%, indicating significant pressure on the banking sector's profitability as interest rates continue to decline [2][3][6]. Summary by Sections Net Interest Margin Trends - As of the end of 2024, 36 A-share listed banks reported a decline in NIM compared to the previous year, with the lowest being Shanghai Bank at 1.17%, down from 1.28% in 2023 [3][4]. - In the Hong Kong market, Shengjing Bank's NIM has dropped to 0.8%, while Luzhou Bank has the highest at 2.49% [4]. - Among non-listed banks, Shanxi Bank has a particularly low NIM of 0.57%, highlighting the pressure on smaller institutions [2][5]. Factors Influencing NIM - The decline in NIM is attributed to several factors, including the continuous reduction of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), insufficient effective credit demand, and a general decrease in the yield of interest-earning assets [5][7]. - The recent political bureau meeting has led to speculation about potential adjustments to deposit rates, particularly for smaller banks, which may face greater pressure to lower rates [2][6]. Market Expectations and Future Adjustments - Analysts predict that the next round of deposit rate adjustments may prioritize smaller banks to alleviate pressure on larger banks' liabilities [7][8]. - The overall trend indicates that banks will need to continue reducing deposit rates to manage funding costs and mitigate the narrowing of interest margins [7][8].

Group 1 - The meeting between the Governor of the People's Bank of China and the IMF President signals China's commitment to deepening international financial cooperation, potentially enhancing cross-border capital flows and exchange rate policy coordination [1] - The dialogue may create a more stable external environment for domestic financial institutions to participate in global governance, with opportunities for innovation in cross-border payment and offshore RMB business [1] - The collaboration could optimize the allocation logic of sovereign funds and foreign institutions towards Chinese assets due to policy alignment [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China plans to implement more proactive macro policies, including potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and support key areas for employment and growth [2] - The expansion of the monetary policy toolbox highlights a structural focus, which may improve the financing environment for real enterprises, particularly in technology innovation and green transformation sectors [2] - The reasonable liquidity in the interbank market may alleviate pressure on small financial institutions, although pricing power disparities could intensify industry restructuring [2] Group 3 - In March, China's international balance of payments for goods and services trade reached 4.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with a trade surplus of 603.4 billion yuan [3] - The improvement in foreign trade data is expected to reinforce the safe-haven attributes of RMB assets, injecting stability into the capital market [3] Group 4 - In Q1 2025, China's gold consumption decreased by 5.96% year-on-year, while gold production increased by 1.49% to 87.24 tons [4] - The significant structural differentiation in gold consumption reflects a trend towards physical gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical risks, benefiting gold mining companies [4] - The retail jewelry sector faces pressure, but innovations in traditional gold and lightweight products may provide new opportunities, especially among younger consumers [4] Group 5 - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) shares reached a new historical high, closing at 7.29 yuan per share, up 1.11% [5] - The continuous rise in bank stocks, particularly among the four major state-owned banks, indicates a market re-evaluation of high dividend assets [6] - The deepening of financial supply-side reforms and the improvement of deposit rate marketization may accelerate the wealth management transformation of leading banks, reshaping the industry valuation system [6]

商报讯(记者苗露)近日，多家中小银行跟进下调部分定期存款产品利率，部分银行5年期存款利率跌至 2.5%以下，且长短期"倒挂"，出现了"存五年不如存三年"的现象，让不少储户颇感惊讶。甚至，还有部 分机构月内已进行了两至三次利率下调动作。 业内人士分析，当前储户存储长期存款的意愿强烈，银行通过下调中长期存款利率，优化负债结构，应 对存款定期化带来的成本上升问题。这背后折射出中小银行负债管控的迫切性。 此外，还有华通银行也在本月两度下调存款利率。其中，3年期和5年期的个人定存产品利率自4月21日 起分别调整至2.45%和2.5%，分别下调25BP和10BP。距离前一次调整不过8天，此前该行于4月13日起 将3年、5年个人定期存款挂牌利率分别调整为2.70%和2.60%。 富民银行自4月17日起调整存款挂牌利率，其中三年期、五年期储蓄存款分别调整为2.5%、2.4%，均下 调了10BP。 融360数字科技研究院发布监测数据显示，今年3月，银行整存整取存款3个月期平均利率为1.249%，6 个月期平均利率为1.449%，1年期平均利率为1.566%，2年期平均利率为1.666%，3年期平均利率为 2.042%，5年期平 ...

【导读】又一波"降息潮"来袭 中国基金报记者 王建蔷 例如，根据河南范县德商村镇银行日前公告，根据河南省利率自律机制的相关规定及我行实际业务需 求，将存款产品执行利率进行调整，新利率生效日为5月1日。具体而言，该行1年、2年、3年、5年期限 的个人定期存款最新执行利率分别为1.8%、1.8%、2.05%、1.95%，较今年3月1起开始执行的利率分别 下调10个、15个、15个、15个基点。 | 存款种类 | | 最新执行利率 | | --- | --- | --- | | 个人定期存款 | 3个月 | 1.1% | | | 6个月 | 1.5% | | | 1年 | 1.8% | | | 2年 | 1.8% | | | 3年 | 2.05% | | | 5年 | 1.95% | | 个人活期存款 | 活期 | 0.15% | | 通知存款 | 1天 | 0.85% | | | 7天 | 1.3% | 另据新疆阜康农商银行公告，自4月30日起，将1年期整存整取挂牌利率由1.75%调整至1.7%；2年期整 存整取挂牌利率由1.95%调整至1.8%;3年期整存整取挂牌利率由2.4%调整至2.1%；5年期整存整取挂牌 ...