郑氏点银：黄金今日欧盘连阴走弱，今晚看探底拉升； 今日时间问题，简单粗暴讲一下今晚大概走势预判： 第三，原油方面：日线级别趋势已转多， 今天和黄金一样，也是早间高开之后，一路压制走弱，那么暂时也是维持高位区间一定整理，修正完毕之后再发 力上攻； 欧盘弱，美盘也存在二次打压概率，下方支撑关注70.7一线，看能否形成小双底，触及企稳看涨，阻力73-73.1，重新突破则看日内高点； 以上是笔者技术剖析的几个观点，作为参考，也是十二年以来，每日12小时以上盯盘、复盘所积累的技术经验总结，每天都会公开技术点，配合文字和视频 解读，想学习的朋友，结合实际走势可以去对比参考；认可思路的可以参考操作，带好防守，风控第一；不认可的就当飘过就行；感谢大家的支持和关注； 【文章观点仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎，理性操作，严格设损，控制仓位，风控第一，盈亏自负】 第一，黄金方面而言：对于日，周，月周期趋势一直始终不变，维持多头不变；并且周线开始连阳，大概率要向上进行逐步突破； 日线暂时维持以3245- 3293作为底部两低点支撑，3382-3452作为两顶部高点阻力形成的上行通道，上轨目前压制存在，虽然周末以伊依旧打的激烈，但市 ...

| 时期 | 简单移动平均线 | 指数移动平均线 | | --- | --- | --- | | MA5 | 24060.4 | 24042.9 | | | 卖出 | 卖出 | | MA10 | 24110.7 | 24060.5 | | | 卖出 | 卖出 | | MA20 | 24040.6 | 24039.1 | | | 菜品 | 卖出 | | MA50 | 23986.6 | 24024.5 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 卖出 | 卖用 | | MA100 | 24077.2 | 23965.1 | | | 菜品 | 买入 | | MA200 | 23766.7 | 23847.9 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | 买入:3 菜田:d 总结:卖出 | | | 金十图示：2025年06月17日（周二）香港恒生指数期货技术面一览（一小时图） | 毎小时 | | 5小时 | 每日 | 每周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总结 | 强力卖出 | | | | | 移动平均线 | | 卖出 | 买入3 | 卖出9 | | 技术指标 | | 强力卖出 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always wrong, regardless of the situation [1] - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with a notable drop of $70 in a single day, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors regarding geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The oil market is also undergoing substantial fluctuations, with recent price movements comparable to the volatility seen over the past two months, driven by geopolitical factors [4][6] Group 2 - For gold trading, key support levels are identified at the 3360-55 range, with potential resistance at 3405-07, indicating a strategic approach to trading based on these levels [3] - In the silver market, a bearish outlook is suggested, with primary resistance levels at 37 and 37.5, while support is noted at 35.5 and 34.8-6 [3] - The crude oil market is advised to consider buying on dips around the 70 level, with significant resistance at 72.5-73 and 75, indicating a tactical approach to trading in response to market conditions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The newly launched aluminum alloy futures have attracted significant market attention, with initial trading showing a strong upward trend due to lower listing prices compared to spot prices [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day, aluminum alloy futures saw an overall increase, with the main contract 2511 rising by over 4% [2]. - The weighted average price of aluminum alloy increased by 4.41%, reaching 19,175 [2]. - The main continuous contract rose by 4.49%, with a latest price of 6,161 [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Due to the lack of historical data for the newly listed aluminum alloy futures, traders are advised to focus on smaller time frame charts to capture sufficient volatility details for decision-making [4]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Approximately 70% of the aluminum alloy futures correspond to the transportation sector, including automotive, motorcycle, and electric vehicle industries, while the remaining demand comes from power electronics, home appliances, and machinery manufacturing [7]. - Despite being in a consumption off-season with low purchasing enthusiasm from downstream processing enterprises, the upcoming 618 mid-year consumption event and stable order volumes from automotive profile manufacturers may provide short-term support for aluminum alloy prices [7]. - However, there are concerns about potential oversupply due to relatively low technical barriers in aluminum alloy production, which could lead to high inventory pressure and selling hedging pressure if terminal consumption weakens [9].

在全球地缘政治局势方面，紧张局势仍在持续发酵。乌克兰方面宣称，俄罗斯发动了大规模空袭，这一事件对市场风险情绪构成了潜在扰动。在地缘政治冲 突不断升级的背景下，黄金作为传统的避险资产，其吸引力本应显著增强。然而，当前市场风险偏好因贸易谈判的乐观预期而有所改善，使得黄金的避险需 求在短期内未得到充分释放。但一旦地缘政治冲突进一步恶化，突破当前市场预期的范围，黄金价格可能会迅速获得强劲的上涨动力。 一位长期关注大宗商品领域的分析师指出："从近期黄金价格走势来看，其未能有效向上突破200小时均线，这一现象深刻反映出多头动能的不足。基于此， 短期内黄金价格倾向于进行整理，甚至存在进一步调整的可能性。"当前，黄金市场的走势受到多种复杂因素的综合影响，其中美联储未来的政策路径充满 不确定性，这在一定程度上限制了黄金价格的下跌空间。尽管此前公布的强劲就业数据在短期内对黄金价格构成利空，但CMEFedWatch工具所呈现的数据 显示，市场对于美联储在9月实施降息的概率预期仍然接近60%。这种对未来货币政策宽松的预期，使得投资者在一定程度上对黄金价格的下行持有谨慎态 度，为黄金价格提供了潜在支撑。 此外，美国长期存在的财政赤字问 ...

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is strongly bearish, with a recommendation of "strong sell" across various indicators [2][5][8] - The moving averages indicate a consistent sell signal, with MA5 at 13351.1, MA10 at 13353.0, and MA20 at 13352.5, all suggesting a sell [4][5] - Technical indicators such as RSI(14) at 39.514 and MACD(12,26) at -4.800 further support the bearish outlook [7][8] Group 2 - The market shows a significant number of sell signals, with 11 sell recommendations against only 1 buy recommendation [2][5] - The Stochastic indicator indicates an overbought condition at 98.829, which may lead to a price correction [7] - The pivot points suggest resistance levels at R1 (13381.4) and R2 (13412.7), indicating potential price barriers for upward movement [8]

- Model Name: RPV (Renewed Correlation of Price and Volume); Model Construction Idea: The RPV factor integrates intraday and overnight information by dividing price and volume into four quadrants, effectively identifying the reversal and momentum effects of price-volume correlation factors through the monthly IC mean; Model Construction Process: The RPV factor is constructed by combining the best representatives of intraday and overnight price-volume correlations, incorporating "trading volume" information in the form of correlation, and completing information integration; Model Evaluation: The RPV factor is novel and effective[1][6][7] - Model Name: SRV (Smart Relative Volume); Model Construction Idea: The SRV factor splits intraday price changes into morning and afternoon changes, calculates the "smart" indicator by minute, and uses the correlation coefficient between the afternoon "smart" turnover rate and afternoon price changes; Model Construction Process: The SRV factor combines the more effective intraday price-volume correlation factor and the overnight price-volume correlation factor, where the turnover rate is replaced by the turnover rate of the last half-hour of the previous day, which has a higher proportion of informed trading; Model Evaluation: The SRV factor performs better than the RPV factor[1][6][7] Model Backtest Results - RPV Model, Annualized Return: 14.69%, Annualized Volatility: 7.75%, IR: 1.90, Monthly Win Rate: 72.79%, Maximum Drawdown: 10.63%[1][7][10] - SRV Model, Annualized Return: 17.48%, Annualized Volatility: 6.50%, IR: 2.69, Monthly Win Rate: 75.74%, Maximum Drawdown: 3.74%[1][7][10] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Factor Name: RPV; Factor Construction Idea: The RPV factor integrates intraday and overnight information by dividing price and volume into four quadrants, effectively identifying the reversal and momentum effects of price-volume correlation factors through the monthly IC mean; Factor Construction Process: The RPV factor is constructed by combining the best representatives of intraday and overnight price-volume correlations, incorporating "trading volume" information in the form of correlation, and completing information integration; Factor Evaluation: The RPV factor is novel and effective[1][6][7] - Factor Name: SRV; Factor Construction Idea: The SRV factor splits intraday price changes into morning and afternoon changes, calculates the "smart" indicator by minute, and uses the correlation coefficient between the afternoon "smart" turnover rate and afternoon price changes; Factor Construction Process: The SRV factor combines the more effective intraday price-volume correlation factor and the overnight price-volume correlation factor, where the turnover rate is replaced by the turnover rate of the last half-hour of the previous day, which has a higher proportion of informed trading; Factor Evaluation: The SRV factor performs better than the RPV factor[1][6][7] Factor Backtest Results - RPV Factor, Annualized Return: 14.69%, Annualized Volatility: 7.75%, IR: 1.90, Monthly Win Rate: 72.79%, Maximum Drawdown: 10.63%[1][7][10] - SRV Factor, Annualized Return: 17.48%, Annualized Volatility: 6.50%, IR: 2.69, Monthly Win Rate: 75.74%, Maximum Drawdown: 3.74%[1][7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a narrow trading range against the US dollar (USD), reflecting underlying economic weakness, monetary policy expectations, and external risk factors [1][3]. Economic Fundamentals - Australia's Q1 GDP growth was only 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, a significant slowdown from 0.6% in Q4 of the previous year, with year-on-year growth dropping to 1.3% [3]. - Per capita GDP has declined for five consecutive quarters, indicating a lack of internal growth momentum [3]. - Household consumption has seen slight growth due to essential spending, but public sector spending has reached a new high since 2017, highlighting the narrowing fiscal policy space [3]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled strong easing measures, discussing a potential 50 basis point rate cut and indicating a quick response to the impacts of US tariff policies [3]. External Risks - Uncertainty surrounding US trade policies poses a significant risk, as Australia relies heavily on exports, which account for 25% of its GDP [3]. - The volatility of commodity export prices to the US has increased by 40% since the beginning of the year due to tariff disputes [3]. - Hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve regarding tariff policies could lead to delayed rate cuts or even a resumption of rate hikes, indirectly pressuring the AUD [3]. Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD pair is in a critical consolidation phase, forming a converging triangle pattern between 0.6450 and 0.6500 [4]. - The RSI indicator shows a bullish divergence in the oversold region, while the MACD momentum remains below the zero line, indicating a delicate balance between bulls and bears [4]. - The psychological level of 0.6500 is a battleground, with three recent tests resulting in pullbacks, while strong buying interest at 0.6400 provides short-term support [4]. Trading Strategy - The market is at a critical point for directional choice, with short-term traders advised to watch for breakout signals [4]. - A drop below 0.6400 could open up further downside towards 0.6300, while a sustained move above 0.6500 could target the yearly high of 0.6540 [4]. - Mid-term investors should be cautious of policy expectation adjustments, considering short positions above 0.6500 with a stop loss at 0.6600 and a target at 0.6350 [4]. Future Outlook - The RBA's meeting minutes on June 18 and the US non-farm payroll data on June 21 will be critical catalysts for the AUD [5]. - A clearer indication of rate cuts from the RBA or stronger-than-expected US employment data could significantly increase downward pressure on the AUD [5]. - Conversely, if iron ore prices exceed $120 per ton, it may provide temporary support for the AUD [5]. - The current predicament of the AUD is a result of weak economic fundamentals, expectations of policy easing, and external uncertainties, with a true breakout requiring a convergence of internal and external momentum [5].

Group 1 - The strong performance of silver is directly related to the complexities in the US-Japan trade negotiations, with internal disagreements among US officials causing market concerns about escalating trade tensions [3] - Technical analysis indicates that despite the RSI reaching an overbought zone, the bullish momentum remains intact, with a key resistance level at $36.10 that could lead to a target of $37.04 if maintained [4] - The mid-term outlook for silver remains supported by ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside the uncertainty revealed in the US-Japan negotiations, enhancing silver's appeal as a crisis hedge [5] Group 2 - The COMEX silver futures non-commercial net long positions have increased for three consecutive weeks, indicating a strategic demand from institutional investors for precious metals [4] - There are potential risks in the $36-$37 range due to significant resistance levels established since 2013, which could trigger technical corrections [5] - Short-term investors are advised to hold long positions with a stop-loss at $35.50, targeting $36.80, while mid-term strategies should wait for a pullback after a breakout above $37 [5]

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