Group 1 - The overall consumer price index (CPI) in May showed a slight decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a widening growth margin of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][3] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [1][2] Group 2 - Food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 5.9%, while prices for eggs, pork, and poultry showed slight declines [2] - The demand for services increased, with service prices rising by 0.5% year-on-year, driven by higher travel and accommodation costs [3] - Industrial producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, but some sectors showed positive price trends [3][4] Group 3 - The hospitality and tourism sectors experienced price increases of 4.6% and 0.8% month-on-month, respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [3] - High-tech industries, including integrated circuits and wearable devices, saw price increases of 3.6% and 3.0% year-on-year, reflecting a shift towards high-end and innovative production [4] - The prices of photovoltaic and lithium battery manufacturing showed a narrowing decline, with decreases of 12.1% and 5% year-on-year, respectively [4]

每经AI快讯，8月7日消息，墨西哥7月核心CPI环比增长0.31%，预期增长0.30%；墨西哥7月核心CPI同 比增长4.23%，预期增长4.23%。 ...

南非央行声明：预计2025年核心CPI为3.3%，2026年核心CPI为3.2%。 ...

日本央行预测2025财年的核心CPI为2.7%，而之前预计为2.2%。 ...

日本央行：预计2025财年核心CPI为2.7%，此前为2.2%。 ...

澳洲联储副主席Hauser：昨天的CPI数据非常受欢迎，核心CPI非常符合预期。 ...

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：核心CPI将放缓的"理由"依然存在。 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai Municipal Government reported on the execution of the 2025 economic and social development plan, highlighting significant employment and income growth in the first half of the year [1] Economic Performance - A total of 331,000 new jobs were created in Shanghai during the first half of the year, achieving 55.1% of the annual target [1] - The average urban survey unemployment rate was recorded at 4.2% [1] Income Growth - Residents' disposable income reached 46,805 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [1] - Urban and rural residents' per capita disposable income grew by 4.5% and 5.8%, respectively [1] Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Shanghai saw a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.5% [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for certain Japanese consumer companies, particularly Asics, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Fast Retailing, and Asahi Group, due to their optimistic profit growth prospects [5]. Core Insights - High temperatures in June boosted sales of beverages and summer clothing, while duty-free consumption saw a significant decline [2][13]. - The consumer confidence index in Japan rose to 34.5 in June, the highest in four months, indicating improved consumer sentiment [7]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across different sectors, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary spending faced challenges [4][26]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The consumer confidence index increased to 34.5 in June, up from 32.8 in May, with all sub-indices showing improvement [7]. - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, a decrease from 3.7% in May, indicating a slowdown in inflation [9]. - The producer price index (PPI) increased by 2.9% year-on-year in June, reflecting easing cost pressures for producers [11]. Essential Consumption - Drugstore same-store sales showed positive growth, with PPIH, 7-Eleven, and Aeon reporting increases of 4.5%, 2.0%, and 2.1% respectively [3][15]. - Beverage sales turned positive due to high temperatures, with Suntory and Asahi reporting year-on-year sales growth of 1% and 9% respectively [18]. - The overall beer industry faced challenges, with Asahi's domestic revenue declining by 1% and Kirin's by 2% [20]. Discretionary Consumption - Clothing sales remained robust, with Workman and Uniqlo reporting same-store sales growth of 15.0% and 6.4% respectively [28]. - Restaurant same-store sales growth slowed, with major brands like Food&Life and McDonald's showing increases of 14.5% and 3.6% respectively [26]. - Department store sales continued to decline, with a 7.8% year-on-year drop in June, primarily due to a 40.6% decrease in duty-free sales [34]. Stock Market Performance - In June, the retail sector index rose by 3.7%, while the food and beverage sector increased by 0.7% [42]. - The report notes significant inflows into retail and food and beverage ETFs, indicating investor interest in these sectors [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June 2025 has shown a new trend, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, ending a four-month decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, reaching a 14-month high [1] - In June, 14 provinces experienced a year-on-year increase in CPI, while 10 provinces saw a decline, indicating a shift in regional price trends [1] - The analysis by Wang Qing from Dongfang Jincheng highlights three main driving forces for the CPI's positive change: seasonal rise in vegetable prices, an increase in domestic energy prices due to international oil price fluctuations, and the support from the "old-for-new" policy [2] Group 2 - Future CPI trends are expected to show a low and moderate recovery, supported by stable economic performance and effective domestic demand policies [4] - Factors contributing to price stability include ongoing economic expansion, effective policies to boost consumption, and regulatory actions to curb disorderly price competition in various industries [5] - The holiday effect is anticipated to further stabilize or increase service-related prices, with several upcoming holidays expected to have a noticeable impact [5]