综合整治‘内卷式’竞争

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强数据压制降息,美元短线偏强
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 11:32
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the US dollar may remain strong supported by high inflation and employment resilience, but in the medium - term, it is restricted by fiscal pressure and differences in the pace of interest rate cuts. The RMB fundamentals are still mild, but with narrowing interest rate spreads, stable settlement, and eased external expectations, the short - term exchange rate has a foundation for phased stability [57]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end. The volatility of the USD/CNY option has declined, indicating that the market's expectation of future volatility of the USD/CNY has weakened [4]. - The term structure shows the changes in the premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNY futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the US - China interest rate spread over different time periods [8]. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has not been activated and shows a fluctuating trend. The three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [10]. - Based on CFTC data (as of July 8), the report presents the total positions and speculative net long positions of various currency pairs such as GBP/USD, CAD/USD, EUR/USD, and JPY/USD [14][17]. 2. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Economic Situation - There are differences in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account had a balance of $311 billion on July 9, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $227.2 billion. Changing the Fed chairman is unlikely to significantly change the US monetary policy direction in the short term [23]. - The US economic downward risk is rising. Employment data is mixed, inflation is waiting for June CPI data, and the economy is showing marginal decline with falling fiscal expenditure, differentiated June economic sentiment, and pressured May retail sales [25]. Tariff Events - In the trade negotiations with the US among 17 key countries and regions, different situations are presented. For example, the UK - US agreement is in effect, the China - US is accelerating the implementation of the London framework results, the India - US is close to reaching a temporary trade agreement, etc. Trump extended the grace period for the equal - tariff to August 1, and the equal - tariff 2.0 phase has officially started, increasing global trade uncertainty [26]. The "Great Beautiful Act" in the US - The "Great Beautiful Act" became effective on July 4. It includes measures such as corporate and individual tax cuts, reduction of clean - energy subsidies, medical assistance, and the supplementary nutrition assistance program, and an increase in the debt ceiling. However, it may lead to problems such as fiscal front - loading, deterioration of income and welfare distribution, and increased inflation [30][32]. China's Economic Situation - China's economic structure is differentiated. In June, the pressure increased, with the growth rates of investment sub - items declining and retail sales also under pressure. June's export data exceeded expectations, with financial data improving, and the RMB showing resilience in the face of trade policy uncertainties [33][42]. Comprehensive Rectification of "Involution - style" Competition - The government is promoting the in - depth construction of a unified national market, including requirements such as "five unifications and one opening". Industries such as steel, refining, and photovoltaic are the focus of rectification, with measures including curbing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the exit of backward production capacity [44]. Trade Policy Uncertainty - In 2025, Sino - US tariff frictions have recurred. Although a suspension agreement was reached in May, there may be further fluctuations. The export structure has changed, with emerging markets supporting overall exports. The RMB has shown resilience and is less affected by tariff policies, and the marginal impact of trade uncertainty on the exchange rate will continue to weaken [53]. Overall Views - Currently, the economic expectation difference between China and the US is neutral, the interest rate spread is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is also neutral. In the short - term, the US dollar may remain strong, while the RMB has a foundation for phased stability [57]. Risk Assessment - From the historical data from April 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years), the range of the premium and discount of the futures main contract is between - 1100 and 900 [58].