Group 1: Domestic Policy Analysis - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasized the importance of ecological environment protection and the political responsibility of various regions and departments in building a beautiful China [10][13] - The State Council decided to impose a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the United States in response to the "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump [15][26] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development released a new national standard for residential projects, aiming to promote high-quality housing supply [14][26] Group 2: International Policy Analysis - Trump's announcement of a national emergency and the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" led to significant market volatility, with the VIX index rising above 45, indicating extreme market conditions [5][25] - The U.S. stock market experienced a substantial decline, with a total market capitalization loss of $5 trillion over two days [2][25] - The tariffs imposed on various countries, including a 34% tariff on China, are expected to escalate trade tensions and impact global markets [15][24] Group 3: Equity Market Analysis - A-shares experienced a general decline due to the global liquidity crisis triggered by Trump's tariffs, with the ChiNext index falling nearly 3% [3][27] - The MSCI China A-share index saw a slight drop of 1.5%, maintaining below 3350 points during the week [27] - Southbound capital continued to flow into the market, with a total inflow of 59.379 billion yuan during the week ending March 31 [27] Group 4: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The overall funding environment returned to a loose state, with the central bank withdrawing a total of 501.9 billion yuan in funds during the week [48] - The yield on ten-year government bonds continued to decline, reaching below 1.75% [48][49] - The central bank conducted an 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [50][51] Group 5: Commodity Market Analysis - The prices of non-ferrous metals began to decline, while crude oil prices continued to fall [3] - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain rare earth items, reflecting the ongoing trade tensions [26] - The OPEC+ group is expected to increase production in May to stabilize the oil market [26] Group 6: Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.07% to 102.92, while the renminbi appreciated by 0.37% to 7.297 [4] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy amid rising trade tensions [4] - The trade promotion agency's survey indicated a positive outlook for exports in the first half of 2025 [4]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of the futures market, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, it predicts the price trends, support, and resistance levels of various futures contracts on April 1, 2025, and also gives the expected trends for April 2025 in some cases [2][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Forecast for April 1, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate. For example, IF2506 has resistance at 3886 and 3902 points, and support at 3833 and 3808 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 are likely to oscillate strongly, with specific resistance and support levels provided [3][4]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures AU2506 will likely oscillate strongly and reach new highs, while silver futures AG2506 will likely oscillate weakly [4]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, lead, nickel, and other base metal futures are mostly expected to oscillate weakly, while zinc futures will oscillate and consolidate, and tin futures will oscillate strongly [4][5]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil and fuel oil futures will likely oscillate strongly, while natural rubber and 20 - number rubber futures will likely oscillate weakly [10]. - **Other Futures**: PTA, PVC, glass, and soda ash futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while steel - related futures such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to oscillate weakly [5][7][9][10]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Domestic Macro News**: China's economic recovery signs are more obvious, with the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI rising in March. The government will take measures to reduce corporate burdens, and the central bank has carried out open - market operations [12]. - **International Macro News**: Trump plans to announce a tariff policy, which has affected the Asian - Pacific stock markets. Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a US economic recession and lowered the GDP growth forecast. The global economic outlook may be slightly revised downward, but there are no signs of recession [14][15]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast for March 31, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Most stock index futures contracts closed down on March 31, with increased short - term downward pressure [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures had different trends on March 31, with the ten - year showing a slight decline and the thirty - year showing a slight increase [43][46]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures closed up, reaching a new high, while silver futures closed slightly down [49][52]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures closed down on March 31, with varying degrees of downward pressure [59][64][73][77][79]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil and fuel oil futures closed down on March 31, with increased short - term downward pressure [110][112]. - **Other Futures**: Steel - related futures such as rebar and hot - rolled coil closed down, while glass and soda ash futures also closed down, with increased downward pressure [87][90][104][106]. 4. Expected Trends for April 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF, IH, IC, and IM are expected to oscillate weakly in April 2025, with specific support and resistance levels provided [24][25]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly in April 2025, with expected resistance and support levels [49][52]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures have different expected trends in April 2025, such as copper oscillating strongly and aluminum having a wide - range oscillation [59][64]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures are expected to oscillate strongly in a wide range in April 2025 [110].

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Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of technological modernization as a foundation for achieving high-quality development in China, aiming for a strategic goal of becoming a technological powerhouse by 2035 [6][9] - The manufacturing PMI for March 2025 is reported at 50.5, indicating a slight increase from the previous value of 50.2, suggesting a stable manufacturing environment [6][9] - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to clean up existing illegal charging policies, indicating a proactive regulatory approach [6][9] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,335.75, down 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,504.33, down 0.97% [4] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are reported at 14.25 and 37.48 respectively, indicating a mid-level valuation suitable for long-term investment [9][10] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones closed at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experienced declines of 0.45% and 0.15% respectively [5] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the growth in the AI and computing power sectors, highlighting the increasing demand for data centers and AI infrastructure as key growth drivers [15][25] - The electrical equipment sector has shown strong performance, with the index rising 0.86% in March, outperforming the broader market [18] - The report notes a significant increase in domestic excavator sales and the release of humanoid robot products, indicating a robust machinery sector [28] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors such as electric power, precious metals, and diversified finance for short-term opportunities, while maintaining a balanced approach between defensive and growth stocks [12][14] - The report suggests that the new materials sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by increasing demand in manufacturing and technology integration [24] Key Data Updates - The report provides updates on the release of locked shares and the top ten active stocks in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, indicating market liquidity and investor interest [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of advancing towards the goal of building a strong technological nation, highlighting the achievements and future strategies in China's scientific and technological development [20]. Group 1: Achievements in Science and Technology - Significant breakthroughs have been made in foundational research, with major original achievements in fields such as quantum technology, life sciences, and space science [5]. - The successful launch of the first 6G satellite and the operational commencement of the world's first fourth-generation nuclear power plant are notable milestones [5]. - Emerging industries like integrated circuits and artificial intelligence are thriving, contributing to high-quality development [5]. Group 2: Strategic Goals and Framework - The strategic goal is to build a strong technological nation by 2035, with a focus on self-reliance and innovation [8]. - Key elements for achieving this goal include strong foundational research capabilities, core technology breakthroughs, and a robust international influence in science [8][9]. - The need for a comprehensive governance system and a conducive innovation ecosystem is emphasized to support these objectives [8]. Group 3: Innovation and Reform - The article stresses the importance of deepening the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation to enhance new productive forces [12]. - It advocates for a collaborative approach between enterprises, universities, and research institutions to foster innovation [12]. - Reforms in the scientific and technological system are necessary to stimulate creativity and address existing structural issues [14]. Group 4: Talent Development - The cultivation of a large, high-quality innovative talent pool is crucial for technological advancement [15]. - There is a focus on aligning educational systems with the needs of technological innovation to improve talent training [16]. - The article calls for a supportive environment that respects knowledge and encourages scientific exploration [16]. Group 5: International Cooperation - The importance of international scientific cooperation is highlighted, with an emphasis on mutual benefits and addressing global challenges [17]. - The article encourages active participation in global innovation networks and collaborative scientific initiatives [17].