Core Viewpoint - The risk of inflation falling below the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target is now under control, with expectations for consumer price growth to slow to 1.4% by Q1 2026, without shaking market expectations [1] Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that the risks of inflation declining are very limited, and the assessment indicates that inflation risks are balanced [1] - The ECB has lowered the key deposit rate from 4% to 2% over the past year, indicating the end of the easing cycle is near, as the economy shows resilience [1] - The market has understood the ECB President Lagarde's statement about being in a favorable position, believing that the goal of maintaining sustainable inflation at 2% is close [1][2] Group 2: Economic Uncertainty and Flexibility - Joachim Nagel, President of the German Central Bank, emphasized the need for flexibility in interest rate decisions due to high uncertainty in growth and inflation outlooks [2] - Nagel noted that recent data and ECB forecasts show that inflation has achieved its mission, but vigilance is necessary regarding price stability risks, particularly due to the ongoing Middle East tensions [2] Group 3: Future Projections - After a cumulative rate cut of 200 basis points within a year, policymakers are assessing whether borrowing costs have reached the cycle's endpoint or if further cuts are needed [6] - The eurozone's inflation rate fell slightly below the 2% target in May, with expectations for further slowdown by 2026 and a return to target by 2027 [6] - Nagel agreed that a prolonged period below the inflation target is unlikely, highlighting that core inflation remains elevated, particularly in service costs [6]

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy in the second half of 2025 is characterized by "weak reality, strong shocks, and high volatility," with significant uncertainty and concerns about recession [1][8] - The U.S. economy shows signs of weakening core growth, with consumer spending support for GDP diminishing and inflation pressures re-emerging, potentially pushing CPI back to 3% by mid-year [2][26][32] - European economic improvement is limited, with weak domestic demand despite temporary boosts from fiscal deficits, and the European Central Bank expected to maintain a loose monetary policy with 1-2 rate cuts [2][9] - Japan's economy is under pressure from high inflation, with wage growth offset by rising prices, and a potential interest rate hike expected by the end of 2025 [2][9] Major Economies - The U.S. faces multiple pressures including consumption, inflation, and employment challenges, with rising fiscal deficit risks and delayed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3][12] - U.S.-China trade relations are undergoing adjustments, with some tariffs being suspended, but structural issues remain unresolved, leading to ongoing tensions in non-tariff areas [3][4] - The overall economic landscape is marked by a fragile balance, with the potential for a weak recovery amid high volatility [8] Asset Markets - Global asset markets are expected to experience high volatility in the second half of 2025, with the S&P 500 potentially testing previous highs around 6150 points, but facing risks from inflation and trade negotiations [4][10] - U.S. Treasury yields are projected to remain elevated, fluctuating between 4.2% and 4.7%, with 4.5% acting as a critical support and resistance level [4][10] - The Japanese market is anticipated to fluctuate between 36,000 and 40,000 points, influenced by currency volatility and persistent inflation [4][10] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to continue their upward trend, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [4][10] Market Logic - The core market logic revolves around the interplay between policy expectations and economic realities, with high uncertainty stemming from U.S. fiscal and trade policies [5][8] - The weakening dollar may lead to capital inflows into emerging markets, enhancing the attractiveness of emerging market equities [5][8] - Investors are advised to navigate the complexities of the economic landscape by understanding policy directions and identifying structural opportunities amid volatility [5][8]

本文重点 观点来自： 6 月 11 日本周三直播 欢迎大家 点击【预约】 按钮 预约 我 下一场直播 日本市场则仍处于加息周期，整体处于流动性收缩状态。日本经历了30年通缩和异常宽松的货币政策， 目前正尝试回归正常化，包括提高利率和缩减国债规模。短期内这种政策调整导致市场表现乏力，表现 较弱。日本市场适合机会主义操作，若出现暴跌则是介入机会，否则维持观望。作为发达国家，日本治 理和基本面仍较稳健，但目前吸引力有限。 德国市场暂时未重点跟踪，主要因为其与美国市场高度相关，关注美国市场即可代表对德国的关注。 黄金方面，目前处于高位整理阶段。央行持续买入黄金，形成支撑，避免价格大幅下跌。美国美元走势 偏弱，短期难见显著反弹，因此黄金仍具备相对吸引力，适合作为配置资产。 总结来看，印度由于政策利好兑现且估值偏高，短期建议止盈谨慎；越南经济健康、估值合理，值得继 续关注；日本加息周期内表现乏力，适合等待机会；黄金保持稳定，美元弱势下仍可配置。朋友们如有 兴趣，可以关注我们全球配置的思路和服务，结合宏观与资产配置，实现收益稳健的目标。 以上内容仅为案例展示，不构成投资建议，投资有风险，交易需谨慎。 注：基金投顾服务由盈米 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the UK labor market will continue to weaken, leading the Bank of England to reverse its restrictive monetary policy [1] Labor Market Analysis - The unemployment rate is expected to rise above the Bank of England's modal forecast, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [1] - In May, employment numbers decreased by 109,000, marking the most significant drop since May 2020, which paints a concerning picture of the labor market [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Bank of England's interest rate will decrease from the current 4.25% to 3.5% by the end of this year, and further to a low of 3.25% in the first quarter of 2026 [1]

日本央行副行长内田真一：央行正在缩减资产负债表，但许多央行不太可能重新采用传统的货币政策调 整方式。 ...

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate for the first time in three years, reducing it by 100 basis points to 20% due to slowing inflation and signs of economic distress under high borrowing costs [1][4] - The decision to cut rates comes amid a backdrop of declining inflation pressures, with the central bank noting that the effects of tight monetary policy on demand are becoming evident as inflation decreases [1][4] - Economic Minister Maxim Reshetnikov has publicly called for rate cuts to stimulate growth, indicating that some sectors are cooling too quickly, reflecting growing concerns about economic downturn risks [4] Group 2 - The annualized inflation rate has decreased from 7% in March to 6.2% in April, with estimates suggesting it may have returned to the 4% target level by May [4] - Despite the recent decline in inflation, economists warn that the central bank may view this as a fragile balance, with expectations of alternating between maintaining rates and cautious rate cuts in the second half of the year [4] - The central bank's future rate decisions will depend on the speed and sustainability of inflation and expectations decline, indicating that tight monetary policy may remain in place for an extended period [7]

俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌琳娜：如果预算的通胀抑制效果低于预期，这将需要对货币政策进行调整。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower interest rates for the eighth time, with a forecasted reduction of 0.25 percentage points to 2% [1]. Core Insights - The ongoing trade tensions initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump are negatively impacting inflation and economic outlook, prompting the ECB to consider further rate cuts [1]. - Economic growth and inflation in Europe may weaken in the coming months, but significant military and infrastructure spending could support long-term growth [3]. - The ECB faces challenges in adjusting monetary policy due to the lack of specific details on fiscal stimulus measures [3]. - Analysts predict that the ECB will maintain its previous economic forecasts despite fundamental changes in the economic backdrop due to trade issues [11]. Summary by Sections Interest Rates - ECB policymakers have nearly completed measures to lower borrowing costs, with discussions about slowing the pace of easing [4]. - The ECB is expected to pause rate cuts after July, with a potential drop in deposit rates to 1.75% [10]. Economic Forecast - Analysts project growth in the Eurozone for 2025 at 0.9%, with inflation expected at 2.3% for the same year [12]. - The Euro has strengthened significantly since March, and lower energy prices are providing downward pressure on prices [11]. Trade and Geopolitical Risks - The report highlights that U.S. policies and geopolitical tensions are the most significant risks to the Eurozone economy [17]. - The potential for increased tariffs on European goods by the U.S. could escalate trade conflicts, impacting economic stability [15].

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver T+D is above 8500, with a recent increase of 2.85% [1] - The highest price reached today is 8500, while the lowest was 8382, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - Resistance levels for silver T+D are identified in the 8500-8530 range, while support levels are noted in the 8150-8190 range [3] Group 2 - Japan's real wage levels are improving, contributing to moderate consumption growth [2] - Historical negative growth in real wages poses a long-term constraint on consumption capacity, necessitating sustained wage growth to solidify domestic demand [2] - The average wage increase in the 2024 "Shunto" labor negotiations is reported at 5.46%, marking the second consecutive year of surpassing previous levels [2]

澳洲联储会议纪要：更大幅度的调整或能为应对不利的全球局势提供更多保障。 ...