Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is prepared to impose additional tariffs on $720 billion worth of U.S. imports if trade negotiations fail, following the announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods by U.S. President Trump [1][4]. Group 1: EU's Response to U.S. Tariffs - The EU's countermeasure list spans 206 pages and targets over €65 billion in industrial products, including aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [2]. - Agricultural products account for approximately €6 billion, with fruits and vegetables (€2 billion) and alcoholic beverages (€1.2 billion) being the most affected [2]. - The initial list targeted €95 billion in U.S. goods but was reduced after consultations with businesses and member states [4]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Market Impact - EU officials express disappointment over the U.S. tariff announcement, which they believe disrupts ongoing negotiations that were close to reaching an agreement [4]. - The new tariffs have negatively impacted European stock markets, with analysts noting that the 30% tariff far exceeds initial expectations of a 10% tariff [4]. - If the 30% tariff is implemented, trade between the EU and the U.S. could become "nearly impossible" [4]. Group 3: EU's Strategic Alliances - The EU plans to strengthen ties with countries affected by U.S. tariffs, including Japan and Canada, and is seeking to expand cooperation in the Pacific region [1][8]. - The EU is also negotiating trade agreements with countries in the Southern Common Market and aims to establish global partnerships to counter U.S. pressure [8]. - There is a growing trend among countries, including Canada and Brazil, to seek independent trade paths and reduce reliance on the U.S. [8].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has prepared a second list of retaliatory tariffs against the United States, amounting to €72 billion (approximately $84 billion), in response to the ongoing trade negotiations and threats from the Trump administration [1][2]. Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations - The EU is facing "huge differences" in trade negotiations with the US, particularly after President Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods [2][3]. - The EU's initial list targeted $95 billion worth of US goods but was reduced after consultations with businesses and member states [2]. Retaliatory Measures - The EU's retaliatory measures include tariffs on industrial products, with over €65 billion of the €72 billion list consisting of industrial goods such as aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [10][11]. - The EU is also considering measures against the US service sector and utilizing the strongest tools available, including anti-coercion measures [11]. Economic Impact - The proposed 30% tariff would significantly impact transatlantic trade relations, making it nearly impossible to maintain the current trade structure [5][10]. - Experts believe that the EU's negotiation stance has shifted from zero tariffs to accepting a 10% general tariff, indicating a significant concession [5][10]. Broader Trade Context - The EU is seeking to strengthen trade relations with like-minded partners and is considering cooperation with CPTPP members as part of its strategy to counter US tariffs [12]. - The World Bank has noted that by December 2024, the CPTPP will include countries that account for about 15% of global GDP, highlighting the EU's interest in engaging with both developed and emerging markets [12].

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 780.40 yuan per gram on July 15, with a daily increase of 0.25% and a trading volume of 216,294 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 774.80 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 8.6 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - President Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on more countries, while investors expect these tariffs to be reduced through negotiations [1] Group 2 - Trump urged Russia to reach a ceasefire agreement, or else face a 100% secondary tariff [2] - The U.S. is open to trade negotiations with various countries, including Europe, regarding tariff issues [2] - The London silver spot price reached over $39 per ounce, marking a new high in over a decade [2]

若金价反弹至3358附近，可轻仓尝试做空，止损设置在3365上方，目标看向3340昨日低点位置。若3340破位，可进一步下看3330 - 3335区域。 多单策略：等待金价回落至3330 - 3335区间，若能在此区域获得明显支撑并企稳，可轻仓做多，止损设置在3325下方，目标先看3345 - 3350； 然后关注还有没有做空的机会。 黄金走势分析：伦敦金在触及高位后遇阻回落，市场围绕 "涨势能否延续" 产生明显分歧。从驱动因素看，支撑上涨的逻辑包括：美联储鸽派 预期尚未完全消退，贸易政策谈判的不确定性可能引发避险资金流入，以及部分多头对通胀数据的 "利空出尽" 押注。但压制因素同样突出： 3375 附近关键阻力多次承压，昨日美盘初跌破欧盘低点释放回调信号，且美元指数在经济数据公布前的企稳可能进一步制约黄金上行空间。 趋势上，在未有效突破 3375-3380 阻力区间前，高位遇阻后的回调风险大于续涨概率。 周一高开回补缺口后，欧盘拉涨至高位盘整，但未破前高3375，美盘初跌破欧盘低点至3347，验证了 "阻力下做空" 的有效性。随后反弹至 3358附近，恰好是前期计划的二次入场位，形成 "回调 - 反弹 - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the later focus is on macro policies and downstream demand [4] - The aluminum price is expected to run within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1.成材 - The production suspension of short - process steel mills in Yunnan and Guizhou regions during the Spring Festival is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons, and the daily output affected by the suspension of some Anhui steel mills is about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, with the price hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is not strong [4] 2. Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price ran strongly within the range. The market is concerned about trade negotiation progress and US economic data. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia, and the market is waiting for US consumer and producer price index data [3] - As of last Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's built - in total production capacity was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating total production capacity was 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92%. Some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi carried out maintenance [4] - Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag in the future. As of now in 2025, Guinea's bauxite exports have increased by 37% year - on - year [4] - As of the end of June, the inventory of alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons. Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [4] - On July 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 501,000 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 23,000 tons compared with last Monday [4]

●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 上周六，美国总统特朗普称将对进口到美国的欧盟和墨西哥商品征收30%的关税。这震动了市场，将 金价推高至3374美元/盎司的日高点。然而，特朗普最近的声明表明，他对贸易谈判持开放态度，包括 与欧洲的贸易谈判，这给金价带来下行压力。 现货黄金周一(7月14日)一度涨到三周高点，但很快回落，最终收盘下滑。有分析师指出，特朗普对贸 易谈判持开放态度，这令市场风险偏好改善，打击避险资产黄金。美元涨到近三周高点，代表美元计价 的黄金对其他货币持有者来说相对昂贵。黄金走弱的另一个原因是美国国债收益率正在上升。10年期美 国国债上涨一个基点，至4.427%。联邦基金期货市场显示，交易员预期年底前美联储将降息50个基 点，首度降息可能落在9月。特朗普持续表示希望看到降息，因此这对黄金来说终究是很不错的支撑。 2. 美元走强也在给金价带来压力。追踪美元兑一篮子六种货币表现的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.25%，至 98.10。 3. 美国总统特朗普表示，他愿意进行更多贸易谈判，包括与欧盟的谈判。不过特朗普坚称，他威胁要征 收新关税的信件对美国贸易伙伴来说是"交易"。 4. 投资者严阵以待美国周二公布 ...

据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普表示，美方将就关税问题与各国展开磋商，并且对包括欧洲在内的贸 易谈判持开放立场。与此同时，欧盟方面也将前来与美方讨论贸易问题。特朗普还称，目前美方已达成 一些贸易协议。近日，特朗普先后致信20多个国家领导人，称将从8月1日起对这些国家征收新关税。他 还宣布，从8月1日起对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的关税。 ...

特朗普：（在关税问题上）始终对包括欧洲在内的谈判持开放态度。 ...

欧盟贸易主管：（谈及对美贸易谈判时表示）谈判需要双方共同努力。 ...

Group 1 - The US Treasury Secretary, Becerra, will visit Japan for the first time since taking office, coinciding with the "US National Day" event at the Osaka Expo on July 19 [2] - The US has announced a 25% tariff on all Japanese and South Korean products starting August 1, 2025, which is slightly higher than the previously announced 24% [2][3] - Japan's trade representative, Akizawa, emphasized that the automotive sector is a core issue in negotiations, stating that the 25% tariff on cars and parts has caused significant losses for Japanese companies [3] Group 2 - The Japanese government is unlikely to show signs of compromise before the Senate elections on July 20, which may delay substantial negotiations until after that date [3] - Since July 7, Trump has sent letters to over 20 countries, including Japan and South Korea, announcing the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" [4] - Experts suggest that while there are significant differences in key areas like subsidies and technology transfer, there is an increasing momentum for bilateral and regional negotiations [5]