有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/17 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78060 9576 8.15 三月 77940 9641 8.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -149.02 现货出口 -105.62 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22060 2686 8.21 三月 21995 2695 6.27 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.68 -1243.32 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20520 2579 7.96 三月 20360 2581 7.92 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.51 -1436.31 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119950 14947 8.02 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -2104.30 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on July 16, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 16, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,025, the LME price was 9,596, and the ratio was 8.19; the three - month domestic price was 77,990, the LME price was 9,645, and the ratio was 8.09. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of - 326.69 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,150, the LME price was 2,702, and the ratio was 8.20; the three - month domestic price was 22,070, the LME price was 2,712, and the ratio was 6.28. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.68, with a profit of - 1,293.29 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,510, the LME price was 2,590, and the ratio was 7.92; the three - month domestic price was 20,395, the LME price was 2,592, and the ratio was 7.88. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.52, with a profit of - 1,549.55 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118,450, the LME price was 14,799, and the ratio was 8.00. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 2,657.39 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,800, the LME price was 1,956, and the ratio was 8.61; the three - month domestic price was 16,965, the LME price was 1,988, and the ratio was 11.13. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, with a profit of - 480.20 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 16, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were - 360, - 460, - 490, and - 540 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 494, 887, 1288, and 1689 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 95, - 110, - 110, and - 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 334, 454, and 574 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 55, - 90, - 150, and - 215 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 328, 442, and 557 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 100, - 65, - 35, and - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 316, 422, and 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 2320, - 2180, - 1950, and - 1790 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 460, and the theoretical spread was 5451 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 475 and 115 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 561 and 940 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 30 and - 65 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 185 and 314 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 230 and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 218 and 330 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 16, 2025, for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc, the Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios were 3.53, 3.82, 4.60, 0.92, 1.20, and 0.77 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios were 3.58, 3.74, 4.83, 0.96, 1.29, and 0.74 respectively [5]

Group 1: Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views - **Aluminum**: Seasonal off - peak is evident, downstream开工率 drops, but inventory is at a historically low level. Macro situation is temporarily positive. Aluminum smelting profit expands to 4000 yuan/ton in the off - peak season. A price correction due to inventory accumulation will provide an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions. In the long run, supply is restricted while consumption grows steadily [1][3]. - **Alumina**: The spot market price rises. Supply is slightly in surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating at the raw material reserve of electrolytic aluminum plants. The low - warehouse receipt problem persists, but the in - transit inventory is increasing. The Axis mine right issue may be resolved, increasing the expectation of mine restart. Alumina smelting profit remains, and the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [4][5]. - **Aluminum alloy**: It is in the consumption off - peak season. The price follows the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost side supports the price. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract which turns into a peak - season contract [6]. 3. Strategies - **Unilateral**: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Long SHFE aluminum calendar spread, long AD11 short AL11 [7]. Group 2: Key Data 1. Aluminum - **Spot price**: On July 14, 2025, Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20470 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20330 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20460 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures price**: On July 14, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20640 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20415 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a decline of - 1.45%. The trading volume was 208641 lots, an increase of 88416 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 222489 lots, a decrease of 32657 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 50.1 tons [1]. 2. Alumina - **Spot price**: On July 14, 2025, Shanxi alumina price was 3150 yuan/ton, Shandong price was 3140 yuan/ton, Guangxi price was 3250 yuan/ton, and Australian alumina FOB price was 366 dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures price**: On July 14, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3088 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3145 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a decline of - 0.6% [2]. 3. Aluminum alloy - **Price**: On July 14, 2025, Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 15100 yuan/ton, mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 15300 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. ADC12 Baotai quoted price was 19500 yuan/ton, down - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price difference between ADC12 and A00 in East China was - 870 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 3.14 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.25 tons; the in - plant inventory was 7.09 tons, with a weekly decrease of - 0.79 tons; the total inventory was 10.23 tons, with a weekly decrease of - 0.54 tons [2].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/14 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78670 9662 8.16 三月 78340 9684 8.10 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.16 -220.79 现货出口 -64.09 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22450 2772 8.10 三月 22355 2773 6.17 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.65 -1530.73 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20790 2607 7.97 三月 20630 2609 7.93 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.50 -1371.41 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120300 15058 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.24 -2894.10 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -100 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of restricted supply, the high industry profit of electrolytic aluminium is not a factor limiting the rise of aluminium prices. In the short - term, the further rise of aluminium prices requires the resonance of macro - economic improvement and stronger micro - consumption. Attention should be paid to the price increase driven by consumption stronger than expected. For alumina, the cost is stable, but the expected supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged. For aluminium alloy, the cost side supports the price, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [3][4][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminium - Spot: On July 10, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminium price was 20,820 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminium price was 20,710 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminium price was 20,800 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On July 10, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminium opened at 20,520 yuan/ton, closed at 20,700 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton or 0.9% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 138,934 lots, an increase of 36,365 lots, and the position was 255,633 lots, an increase of 5,534 lots [1] - Inventory: As of July 10, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 466,000 tons, and the LME aluminium inventory was 395,725 tons, an increase of 4,925 tons from the previous trading day [1] 3.1.2 Alumina - Spot: On July 10, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,130 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,120 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,225 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton [2] - Futures: On July 10, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,133 yuan/ton, closed at 3,208 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton or 2.75% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 513,954 lots, an increase of 162,240 lots, and the position was 244,546 lots, a decrease of 4,110 lots [2] 3.1.3 Aluminium Alloy - Price: On July 10, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminium was 15,200 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminium was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 31,400 tons, a weekly increase of 2,500 tons; the in - factory inventory was 70,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,900 tons; the total inventory was 102,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,400 tons [2] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminium - The smelting profit has expanded to 4,150 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the short - term, wait for the callback caused by inventory accumulation, macro - factors and tariff impacts to find long - term opportunities to layout long positions. In the long - term, pay attention to the price increase driven by consumption stronger than expected [3] 3.2.2 Alumina - The cost is stable, and the smelting profit still exists. The expected supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged. The monthly supply - demand balance has a surplus of about 200,000 tons, but the spot market does not show an obvious surplus. The delivery risk still exists [4][5] 3.2.3 Aluminium Alloy - It is in the off - season. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is still tight, and the cost side supports the price. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] 3.3 Strategies 3.3.1 Single - sided - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 3.3.2 Arbitrage - Shanghai aluminium positive arbitrage; Long AD11 and short AL11 [7]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating Core Views - The report mainly presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of various non - ferrous metals on July 10, 2025, including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin [1][4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79040 (domestic) and 9683 (LME) with a ratio of 8.25; March price is 78200 (domestic) and 9661 (LME) with a ratio of 8.17. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.16 with a profit of - 437.33 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22160 (domestic) and 2719 (LME) with a ratio of 8.15; March price is 22045 (domestic) and 2717 (LME) with a ratio of 6.34. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.67 with a profit of - 1420.13 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20660 (domestic) and 2583 (LME) with a ratio of 8.00; March price is 20455 (domestic) and 2585 (LME) with a ratio of 7.95. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.51 with a profit of - 1323.71 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 118350 (domestic) and 14781 (LME) with a ratio of 8.01. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25 with a profit of - 2437.48 [1] - **Lead**: Spot prices are 17025 and 17195 (domestic), 2032 and 2049 (LME) with ratios of 8.37 and 10.78 respectively. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.84 with a profit of - 957.80 [1][3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 1440, - 1640, - 1840, and - 2030 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 501, 900, 1309, and 1717 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are 50, - 25, - 80, and - 125 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 213, 333, 452, and 571 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 185, - 245, - 335, and - 410 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 330, 446, and 561 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are 70, 90, 85, and 75 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, and 530 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 1010, - 920, - 720, and - 550 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 610 with a theoretical spread of 5443 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.55, 3.82, 4.55, 0.93, 1.19, and 0.78 respectively; in London (three - continuous) are 3.51, 3.71, 4.68, 0.95, 1.26, and 0.75 respectively [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton during the off - season. In the long run, high industry profits are not a factor limiting the rise of aluminum prices under the restricted supply. In the short term, the further rise of aluminum prices requires the resonance of a good macro - environment and strong micro - consumption. Be vigilant against price drops due to inventory accumulation in the short term and price increases driven by stronger - than - expected consumption in the long term [3]. - For alumina, the supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long run. The current warehouse receipt inventory is at a low level, and the delivery risk continues [5]. - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract [6]. Summary by Directory Aluminum - **Spot Price**: On July 8, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,600 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,480 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,580 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Price**: On July 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,460 yuan/ton, closed at 20,525 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 7, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 478,000 tons. As of July 8, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 384,350 tons, up 13,200 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Alumina - **Spot Price**: On July 8, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,100 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,090 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,205 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures Price**: On July 8, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,039 yuan/ton, closed at 3,110 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton or 2.78% from the previous trading day [2]. - **Transaction and Inventory**: The trading volume was 439,969 lots, an increase of 98,116 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 267,754 lots, an increase of 15,036 lots from the previous trading day. The alumina warehouse receipt was 18,000 tons, and the 07 - contract position was 27,000 tons [2][5]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: On July 8, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,200 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 28,900 tons, a weekly increase of 2,900 tons; the in - factory inventory was 78,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 4,000 tons; the total inventory was 107,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 1,100 tons [2]. Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Cautiously Bearish; Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Long - short spread arbitrage for Shanghai aluminum, long AD11 and short AL11 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of pure benzene futures and options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is expected to enhance price discovery, risk management, and the overall competitiveness of the chemical industry in China [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - Pure benzene futures began trading on July 8, with the main contract closing at 5931 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.53% increase from the opening price [2]. - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of pure benzene, with a total production capacity of approximately 33.11 million tons by the end of 2024 [7]. Group 2: Industry Significance - Pure benzene is a crucial intermediate in the chemical industry, linking upstream oil and coal resources to a wide range of downstream applications, including synthetic rubber and pharmaceuticals [3][4]. - The introduction of futures and options is seen as a necessary tool for companies to hedge against price volatility, thereby improving operational stability [5][6]. Group 3: Pricing and Risk Management - The current pricing mechanisms for pure benzene are primarily based on domestic supplier prices, Korean offshore prices, and styrene price differentials, which often leave domestic companies at a disadvantage [5][6]. - The futures market is expected to provide a more transparent pricing framework, gradually shifting pricing power towards domestic producers and enhancing China's influence in international markets [6][10]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply structure of pure benzene in China consists of approximately 80% from petroleum benzene and 20% from hydrogenated benzene, with production closely tied to refining operations and environmental regulations [3][7]. - Demand for pure benzene is projected to grow, with an average consumption growth rate of around 13% from 2020 to 2024, driven by downstream products like styrene [7][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The upcoming months are expected to see increased production and demand for pure benzene, particularly with new styrene production facilities coming online [11]. - Market participants are advised to consider strategies such as long positions in near-term contracts and short positions in longer-term contracts to capitalize on seasonal supply dynamics [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trading situation and strategies for pure benzene futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, highlighting the initial trading performance and market dynamics following the listing of the contracts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Trading Situation - Pure benzene futures were listed on July 8, 2025, with the initial contracts priced at 5900 CNY/ton, closely aligning with the prevailing spot prices in East China [2]. - The opening prices for the contracts BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 were 5900 CNY/ton, 5950 CNY/ton, 6050 CNY/ton, and 5900 CNY/ton respectively, indicating a contango structure in the forward curve [3]. - The main contract BZ2603 recorded a trading volume of 24,865 lots and a closing price of 5931 CNY/ton, which is 31 CNY/ton higher than the listing price [3]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - The article suggests a short-term bullish outlook for pure benzene due to low valuations and support from rising oil prices, while recommending a cautious approach for potential short-selling opportunities in the third quarter [4]. - The contango structure observed in the opening prices reflects the current inventory accumulation, but there is an expectation for a reversal in the curve as the market approaches the third quarter [6]. - For cross-commodity arbitrage, the article notes that the processing margin for styrene is currently low, indicating limited arbitrage opportunities, but suggests monitoring for potential upward corrections if margins fall below 100 CNY/ton [10]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The article highlights that the PX price is currently weak, while benzene prices have shown slight increases, leading to a narrowing PX-BZ price spread [13]. - The anticipated improvement in PX market supply and demand dynamics suggests a potential for long positions in the PX-BZ spread as the market approaches peak demand seasons [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical industry as a whole fluctuated significantly in June, following the sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices. The inventory, valuation, production, and apparent demand of chemical products showed mixed trends. There are potential arbitrage opportunities in several cross - variety combinations [2][10][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Chemical Sector Market Trend Analysis - **Energy Price Fluctuations**: In June, affected by the Israel - Iran conflict, international crude oil prices fluctuated violently, rising from $65 per barrel to nearly $80 per barrel and then dropping to $67 per barrel. The domestic thermal coal price stabilized after a continuous decline [2][10]. - **Inventory Situation**: In June, chemical inventory showed mixed changes. PTA, caustic soda, PVC, staple fiber, and EG had obvious destocking, while bottle chips and urea had relatively obvious inventory accumulation [2][15]. - **Valuation Changes**: In June, the valuation of the chemical industry changed little. EB and PX had relatively obvious valuation expansion, mainly benefiting from the sharp fluctuations in crude oil [2][15]. - **Production Volume**: In June, the chemical production volume showed mixed changes month - on - month. PX and EB were worthy of attention. Their production volume continued to expand due to profit repair. However, the space for further growth of PX production volume is limited, while EB is expected to continue growing [15]. - **Apparent Demand**: In the first five months, the apparent demand of most chemical products showed a differentiated trend. The apparent demand of glass, soda ash, and PVC had relatively obvious negative growth, while that of EB, MEG, urea, and PE showed a significant growth trend [2][15]. 3.2 Chemical Cross - Variety Arbitrage Concerns - **Glass - Soda Ash 09 Arbitrage**: Photovoltaic glass production cuts are underway, which will put pressure on the subsequent demand for soda ash. Glass, with obviously reduced supply and a continuously high basis, may be relatively resistant to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on glass and short on soda ash [3][41]. - **Bottle Chips - PTA - Ethylene Glycol Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: The self - disciplined production cuts in the bottle chip industry are underway. Since it is unsustainable for the long - term processing fee to be lower than the enterprise's cash flow, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee at low prices [3][26]. - **PX - BZ Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: Under high imports, the supply and demand of pure benzene are barely balanced, but PX is expected to continue significant destocking in the second half of the year. If PXN continues to strengthen, it may lead to a passive increase in pure benzene production, thus putting pressure on pure benzene. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on PX and short on BZ [3][32][34].