Market Insights | Markets | Interest Rates 市场洞察 | 市场动态 | 利率走势 China: Will "anti-involution" ഭജ്ഞpaign move markets more ? | dS EM MarketStrats {内卷"行动会如何影响市场? 由于行业整合效应及龙头企业盈利改善预期，这轮行情可能继续推升 A 股走势。我们注意到近几个月境内 散户情绪持续回暖（图 1），且当前 A 股估值仍处于历史低位（图 2）。 ■ On rates, we continue to like curve steepener, seeing 1s5s repo may steepen to 15bp from current 7bp (Figure 3). The implication on bonds and rates market is secondary, in our view, due to lack of large demand-side stimulus and property market is in a very different ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly preview of key economic data releases and events, and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market. Different economic indicators and events may have various effects on different types of futures, such as industrial product futures, stock index futures, bond futures, and precious metal futures. For example, if certain manufacturing PMI data is higher than the previous value, it may slightly boost the prices of industrial product futures and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [3][11][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - On June 30 at 09:30, China's June official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI will be released [2][3]. - On July 1 at 09:45, Markit will announce China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI [2][11]. - On July 1 at 22:00, the US ISM will release the US June ISM manufacturing PMI [2][17]. - On July 2 at 20:15, the US ADP will announce the June ADP employment change [2][19]. - On July 3 at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June non - farm payroll report [2][22]. - Also, pay attention to domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials [2]. This Week's Hotspot Preview June 30 - China's June official manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7 (previous 49.5), and non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.3 (previous 50.3). A slight increase in manufacturing PMI may slightly boost industrial product and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [3]. - Germany's June CPI annual rate initial value is expected to be 2.2% (previous 2.1%) [5]. - The US June Chicago PMI is expected to be 43 (previous 40.5) [8]. - The European Central Bank will hold a central bank forum in Sintra from June 30 to July 2 [9]. July 1 - The USDA will release the quarterly inventory report and planting intention report at 00:00, which may affect agricultural product futures [10]. - China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49 (previous 48.3). A slight increase may slightly boost industrial product and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [11]. - Germany's May real retail sales monthly rate is expected to be 0% (previous - 1.2%) [12]. - Germany's June seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate is expected to be 6.4% (previous 6.3%), and the number of unemployed is expected to increase by 15,000 (previous 34,000) [13]. - The eurozone's June harmonized CPI annual rate un - seasonally - adjusted initial value is expected to be 2.0% (previous 1.9%), and the core harmonized CPI annual rate un - seasonally - adjusted initial value is expected to be 2.3% (previous 2.4%) [14]. - Germany's June CPI annual rate initial value is expected to be 2.3% (previous 2.4%) [15]. - Global Western central bank governors will have a panel discussion at 21:30 [16]. - The US June ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.8 (previous 48.5). A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related futures but suppress gold and silver futures [17]. July 2 - The eurozone's May unemployment rate is expected to be 6.2% (previous 6.2%) [18]. - The US June ADP new employment is expected to be 85,000 (previous 37,000). An increase may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [19]. - The US EIA will announce the change in crude oil inventory for the week ending June 27. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [20]. July 3 - China's June Caixin services PMI is expected to be 51.5 (previous 51.1) [21]. - The US June seasonally - adjusted new non - farm employment is expected to be 110,000 (previous 139,000), the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.3% (previous 4.2%), and the average hourly wage annual rate is expected to be 3.9% (previous 3.9%). A significant decrease in new non - farm employment and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate may boost gold and silver futures but suppress other industrial product futures [22]. - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 29 are expected to be 240,000 (previous 236,000) [23]. - The US May factory orders monthly rate is expected to be 8% (previous - 0.37%). A significant increase may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [25]. - The US June ISM non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5 (previous 49.9). A slight increase may slightly suppress gold and silver futures [26]. July 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in circulation in late June, covering 9 categories and 50 products [27]. July 6 - OPEC + eight member countries will hold a meeting to decide the production policy for August, which may affect related commodity futures [28].

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2025 年 5 月 12 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-05-12 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 中美经贸高层会谈 5 月 10 日至 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行。此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性， 达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。中美双方将尽快敲定相关细节，并将于 5 月 12 日发布会谈达成的联合声明。 5 月 13 日 00:00，美国农业部（USDA）将公布 USDA 月度供需报告。 5 月 13 日 20:30，美国劳工部将公布美国 4 月 CPI。 农产品供需形势分析月报 5 月 15 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 4 月金融统计数据报告、4 月社会融资规模增量统计 ...

Group 1 - Han Chaodong and Liang Rui'an are prominent figures in the futures investment sector, with extensive experience and notable achievements in their respective fields [1][3][4] - Han Chaodong, chairman of Beijing Ruigu Investment Co., has dedicated over 32,000 hours to in-depth fundamental research in futures, excelling in both agricultural and industrial commodities [3] - Liang Rui'an, general manager of Shanghai Dazhun Asset Management Center, is recognized for his innovative application of supply and demand theory in value investing, achieving consistent profitability [4] Group 2 - The concept of "knowing and doing" in futures trading emphasizes that understanding the profit model is crucial for successful execution, challenging the notion that action is inherently difficult [5] - Investors should reflect on missed opportunities and ensure their research and operational capabilities align, particularly during significant market events [6] - Successful futures traders excel not only in analysis but also in leveraging their positions effectively, knowing when to increase or decrease their holdings [7] Group 3 - Continuous profitability in futures trading is viewed as a means of preparation for larger opportunities rather than merely accumulating small wins [8] - The ability to capitalize on major market movements is essential, requiring traders to maintain a flexible approach and adapt to changing market conditions [9][10] - Understanding the dynamics of arbitrage, particularly between different products and time periods, is critical for effective trading strategies [8] Group 4 - As fund sizes increase, the rate of return often diminishes due to liquidity constraints, suggesting that optimal fund sizes for higher returns should be kept at a manageable level [7][9] - Identifying significant market trends driven by supply and demand imbalances is crucial for successful trading, as balanced markets often yield less profitable opportunities [10][11] Group 5 - A trader's mindset is a vital component of success, with a good attitude being necessary for reaching top-tier performance in the futures market [12] - The relationship between traders and fund managers is likened to that of passengers and drivers, emphasizing the importance of risk management and adherence to rules [30]