Group 1 - China's September manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7%, slightly up from the previous value of 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5%, up from 50.3% [1] - A slight increase in both PMIs may support a rise in commodity futures and stock index futures prices, but could mildly suppress government bond futures prices [1] Group 2 - The USDA is set to release the quarterly grain inventory report, which will impact futures prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans [2] Group 3 - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for September is anticipated to be 49.2%, an increase from the previous 48.7% [3] - A slight rise in the ISM manufacturing PMI may support increases in prices for non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures, while potentially suppressing gold and silver futures prices [3] Group 4 - The EIA will announce the weekly crude oil inventory change, with the previous value showing a decrease of 607,000 barrels [4] - A continued decrease in crude oil inventory could support rising prices for crude oil and related commodity futures [4] Group 5 - The US Labor Department will report initial jobless claims, with expectations set at 215,000, down from the previous 218,000 [5] - A slight decrease in jobless claims may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices, except for gold and silver [5] Group 6 - The US non-farm payroll report for September is expected to show an increase of 39,000 jobs, up from 22,000 previously, with an unemployment rate forecasted to remain at 4.3% [6] - If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations while the unemployment rate and average hourly wage growth remain stable, it may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [6] Group 7 - OPEC+ will hold a meeting regarding oil production policies, with expectations of an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day and a potential lifting of a second batch of production cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day [7] - The outcomes of this meeting are anticipated to impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [7]

Market Insights | Markets | Interest Rates 市场洞察 | 市场动态 | 利率走势 China: Will "anti-involution" ഭജ്ഞpaign move markets more ? | dS EM MarketStrats {内卷"行动会如何影响市场? 由于行业整合效应及龙头企业盈利改善预期，这轮行情可能继续推升 A 股走势。我们注意到近几个月境内 散户情绪持续回暖（图 1），且当前 A 股估值仍处于历史低位（图 2）。 ■ On rates, we continue to like curve steepener, seeing 1s5s repo may steepen to 15bp from current 7bp (Figure 3). The implication on bonds and rates market is secondary, in our view, due to lack of large demand-side stimulus and property market is in a very different ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly preview of key economic data releases and events, and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market. Different economic indicators and events may have various effects on different types of futures, such as industrial product futures, stock index futures, bond futures, and precious metal futures. For example, if certain manufacturing PMI data is higher than the previous value, it may slightly boost the prices of industrial product futures and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [3][11][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - On June 30 at 09:30, China's June official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI will be released [2][3]. - On July 1 at 09:45, Markit will announce China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI [2][11]. - On July 1 at 22:00, the US ISM will release the US June ISM manufacturing PMI [2][17]. - On July 2 at 20:15, the US ADP will announce the June ADP employment change [2][19]. - On July 3 at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June non - farm payroll report [2][22]. - Also, pay attention to domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials [2]. This Week's Hotspot Preview June 30 - China's June official manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7 (previous 49.5), and non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.3 (previous 50.3). A slight increase in manufacturing PMI may slightly boost industrial product and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [3]. - Germany's June CPI annual rate initial value is expected to be 2.2% (previous 2.1%) [5]. - The US June Chicago PMI is expected to be 43 (previous 40.5) [8]. - The European Central Bank will hold a central bank forum in Sintra from June 30 to July 2 [9]. July 1 - The USDA will release the quarterly inventory report and planting intention report at 00:00, which may affect agricultural product futures [10]. - China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49 (previous 48.3). A slight increase may slightly boost industrial product and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [11]. - Germany's May real retail sales monthly rate is expected to be 0% (previous - 1.2%) [12]. - Germany's June seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate is expected to be 6.4% (previous 6.3%), and the number of unemployed is expected to increase by 15,000 (previous 34,000) [13]. - The eurozone's June harmonized CPI annual rate un - seasonally - adjusted initial value is expected to be 2.0% (previous 1.9%), and the core harmonized CPI annual rate un - seasonally - adjusted initial value is expected to be 2.3% (previous 2.4%) [14]. - Germany's June CPI annual rate initial value is expected to be 2.3% (previous 2.4%) [15]. - Global Western central bank governors will have a panel discussion at 21:30 [16]. - The US June ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.8 (previous 48.5). A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related futures but suppress gold and silver futures [17]. July 2 - The eurozone's May unemployment rate is expected to be 6.2% (previous 6.2%) [18]. - The US June ADP new employment is expected to be 85,000 (previous 37,000). An increase may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [19]. - The US EIA will announce the change in crude oil inventory for the week ending June 27. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [20]. July 3 - China's June Caixin services PMI is expected to be 51.5 (previous 51.1) [21]. - The US June seasonally - adjusted new non - farm employment is expected to be 110,000 (previous 139,000), the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.3% (previous 4.2%), and the average hourly wage annual rate is expected to be 3.9% (previous 3.9%). A significant decrease in new non - farm employment and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate may boost gold and silver futures but suppress other industrial product futures [22]. - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 29 are expected to be 240,000 (previous 236,000) [23]. - The US May factory orders monthly rate is expected to be 8% (previous - 0.37%). A significant increase may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [25]. - The US June ISM non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5 (previous 49.9). A slight increase may slightly suppress gold and silver futures [26]. July 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in circulation in late June, covering 9 categories and 50 products [27]. July 6 - OPEC + eight member countries will hold a meeting to decide the production policy for August, which may affect related commodity futures [28].

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Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly hotspots preview, focusing on significant events and data releases that may impact the futures market, including Sino-US economic and trade talks, various economic data from the US and other countries, and reports on agricultural products and crude oil markets [2][3] Key Events and Data Releases May 12 - Sino-US economic and trade talks will release a joint statement. The talks were constructive, and a consultation mechanism will be established [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will release the monthly report on the supply and demand situation of agricultural products, which may affect related agricultural futures prices [7] May 13 - The USDA will release its monthly supply and demand report, which may impact related agricultural futures prices [8] - The ZEW will announce Germany's May economic sentiment index, with an expected value of 6.9 and a previous value of -14 [9] - The US Department of Labor will release the US April CPI. The expected unadjusted CPI annual rate is 2.4%, and the unadjusted core CPI annual rate is 2.8% [10] May 14 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the first ten days of May [11] - The EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending May 9. A continued decline may help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [12] - OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report, which may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [13] May 15 - The People's Bank of China will release April financial statistics and social financing scale data. The expected new RMB loans are 765 billion yuan, and the expected growth rate of M2 is 7.5% [15] - The IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report, which may impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [16] - The EU will announce the revised value of the Eurozone's Q1 GDP. The expected seasonally adjusted annualized quarterly rate is 1.2% [17] - The US Department of Commerce will release April retail sales. The expected monthly rate is 0.1%, and the core retail sales monthly rate is 0.3% [18] - The US Department of Labor will release April PPI. The expected annual rate is 2.8%, and the core PPI annual rate is 3.4% [19] - The US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10, with an expected value of 225,000 [20] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give an opening speech and speak on the Fed's monetary policy assessment [21] - The Federal Reserve will release US April industrial output. The expected monthly rate is 0.1% [22] - The National Energy Administration will release April全社会用电量 data, which may affect related futures prices [23] May 16 - Japan's Cabinet Office will announce the preliminary value of Q1 GDP. The expected seasonally adjusted quarterly rate is -0.1%, and the annualized quarterly rate is -0.2% [24] - The US will release April building permits and new housing starts. The expected annualized total of building permits is 1.368 million, and new housing starts is 1.45 million [25] - The University of Michigan will announce the preliminary value of the US May consumer confidence index, with an expected value of 53 [26]

Group 1 - Han Chaodong and Liang Rui'an are prominent figures in the futures investment sector, with extensive experience and notable achievements in their respective fields [1][3][4] - Han Chaodong, chairman of Beijing Ruigu Investment Co., has dedicated over 32,000 hours to in-depth fundamental research in futures, excelling in both agricultural and industrial commodities [3] - Liang Rui'an, general manager of Shanghai Dazhun Asset Management Center, is recognized for his innovative application of supply and demand theory in value investing, achieving consistent profitability [4] Group 2 - The concept of "knowing and doing" in futures trading emphasizes that understanding the profit model is crucial for successful execution, challenging the notion that action is inherently difficult [5] - Investors should reflect on missed opportunities and ensure their research and operational capabilities align, particularly during significant market events [6] - Successful futures traders excel not only in analysis but also in leveraging their positions effectively, knowing when to increase or decrease their holdings [7] Group 3 - Continuous profitability in futures trading is viewed as a means of preparation for larger opportunities rather than merely accumulating small wins [8] - The ability to capitalize on major market movements is essential, requiring traders to maintain a flexible approach and adapt to changing market conditions [9][10] - Understanding the dynamics of arbitrage, particularly between different products and time periods, is critical for effective trading strategies [8] Group 4 - As fund sizes increase, the rate of return often diminishes due to liquidity constraints, suggesting that optimal fund sizes for higher returns should be kept at a manageable level [7][9] - Identifying significant market trends driven by supply and demand imbalances is crucial for successful trading, as balanced markets often yield less profitable opportunities [10][11] Group 5 - A trader's mindset is a vital component of success, with a good attitude being necessary for reaching top-tier performance in the futures market [12] - The relationship between traders and fund managers is likened to that of passengers and drivers, emphasizing the importance of risk management and adherence to rules [30]