编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.06.20） 宏观及策略研究 科创板改革获推进，市场延续窄幅震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 晨会纪要（2025/06/20） 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/06/20） 宏观及策略研究 科创板改革获推进，市场延续窄幅震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（6 月 13 日-6 月 19 日），重要指数纷纷收跌；其中，上证综指收跌 1.19%，创业板指收跌 1.95%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收跌 1.26%，中证 500 收跌 2.12%。成交量方面小幅缩量，两市统计区间内成交 6.33 万亿元，日均成交额达到 1.27 万亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent transfer of shares from Commonwealth Bank of Australia to New China Life Insurance marks a significant shift in the shareholder structure of Hangzhou Bank, with New China Life now holding over 5% of the bank's shares, positioning itself as the fourth largest shareholder [1][4]. Group 1: Shareholder Changes - Commonwealth Bank of Australia has completely divested its stake in Hangzhou Bank, transferring 330 million shares to New China Life Insurance, which now holds a total of 5.09% of the bank's shares [1][2]. - The transaction price of 13.1 yuan per share for New China Life is significantly lower than Hangzhou Bank's closing price of 16.56 yuan on June 16, indicating a strategic long-term investment rather than a short-term profit [2][12]. - New China Life's acquisition aligns with its strategy to enhance its long-term investment portfolio and optimize its asset structure amid increasing competition for investment opportunities [2][16]. Group 2: Strategic Intentions - New China Life's investment in Hangzhou Bank is not only aimed at increasing dividend assets but also at leveraging the bank's extensive network in the Yangtze River Delta region to expand its market presence [3][24]. - The bank has established a comprehensive service network in Zhejiang province, which is crucial for New China Life as it seeks to tap into the region's high growth potential [3][24]. - The collaboration between New China Life and Hangzhou Bank could lead to enhanced synergies in various business areas, particularly in insurance and banking services [4][26]. Group 3: Historical Context and Performance - Commonwealth Bank of Australia has been a shareholder in Hangzhou Bank for 20 years, witnessing significant growth in the bank's asset size from under 50 billion yuan to over 2.11 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [7][10]. - The bank's net profit growth of 18.07% in 2024, alongside stable asset quality metrics, reflects its resilience in a challenging market environment [7][8]. - The exit of Commonwealth Bank is part of a broader trend where foreign banks are reducing their stakes in Chinese financial institutions due to rising compliance costs and a strategic focus on domestic markets [10][11]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The current environment of asset scarcity and regulatory encouragement for insurance capital to enter the market has led to a growing preference among insurance companies for long-term dividend assets [17][19]. - New accounting standards have facilitated this trend, allowing insurance firms to classify bank stocks as long-term investments, which aligns with New China Life's strategy to enhance its long-term equity investment base [18][19]. - New China Life's OCI account for equity investments has seen substantial growth, indicating a strategic shift towards high-dividend assets [19].

Group 1 - Recent activities of insurance capital include participation in long-term investment reforms and significant investments in private equity funds [1] - The China Insurance Industry Association reported that seven insurance companies executed 15 equity stakes by the end of May, indicating a strong focus on banking and public utilities [1] - The central financial authorities aim for large state-owned insurance companies to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-share investments starting in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Regulatory adjustments include a 10% reduction in risk factors for stock investments, encouraging insurance companies to increase market participation [2] - Industry experts emphasize the importance of long-term equity investments and the need for insurance capital to focus on high-dividend assets and innovative financial tools [2] - A proposed "dumbbell" asset allocation strategy suggests balancing stable dividend assets with high-growth assets while using convertible bonds and preferred stocks as buffers [3] Group 3 - The cautious approach of insurance companies towards equity investments is primarily due to concerns over the volatility of fair value [3] - Recommendations for improving the investment environment include optimizing assessment mechanisms and implementing long-term performance evaluation systems [3] - Key challenges for insurance capital include addressing asset scarcity, adapting accounting standards, and reforming assessment mechanisms [3]

Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Insurance has acquired a 5.09% stake in Hangzhou Bank, becoming its fourth-largest shareholder, reflecting a trend of insurance companies increasing investments in high-dividend bank stocks in 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Xinhua Insurance purchased 330 million shares of Hangzhou Bank from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia at a price of 13.095 yuan per share, totaling approximately 4.317 billion yuan [2]. - The transaction was initiated in January 2025 and completed with the approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration [2][3]. - Following the acquisition, Xinhua Insurance holds a total of 363 million shares in Hangzhou Bank, solidifying its position as a significant stakeholder [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - In 2025, insurance companies have made 15 equity acquisitions, with a notable focus on bank stocks, indicating a strategic shift towards high-dividend assets [4][5]. - The preference for bank stocks is attributed to declining long-term interest rates and the need for asset reallocation, as insurance companies seek stable dividend returns [5][6]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory initiatives have encouraged insurance funds to invest in the capital market, aiming to enhance the stability and proportion of insurance capital in A-shares [7][8]. - The government has introduced policies to facilitate long-term investments by insurance companies, including lowering risk factors for stock investments and promoting a "long money, long investment" strategy [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the performance pressure in Q2 is limited, with expectations for improved new business performance and further reductions in the cost of new liabilities due to anticipated interest rate cuts in Q3 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions and Fund Flows - A-share listed insurance companies are significantly underrepresented compared to the CSI 300 index, with public fund regulations expected to drive incremental capital inflows [1] - As of the end of Q1, the allocation of equity funds in the non-bank sector is underweight by 9.68% compared to the CSI 300 index, second only to banks [1] Group 2: New Liability Costs and Product Transformation - The cost of new liabilities has decreased significantly, with some insurance companies optimizing their existing liability costs [2] - The NBV (New Business Value) and VIF (Value of In-Force) yield performances for major insurers show a year-on-year decline, indicating effective risk management of interest spread losses [2] - The transformation of participating insurance products has exceeded expectations, with major insurers elevating this strategy to a strategic level [3] Group 3: Insurance Capital Market Participation - The implementation plan for promoting long-term capital market participation highlights the role of insurance capital as a key player, with sustainable growth in insurance fund utilization expected [4] - The upper limit for equity allocation for insurance capital has been unexpectedly relaxed, allowing for a total equity allocation scale of 9.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 505.5 billion yuan from previous regulations [4] - The reduction of investment risk factors for stock investments further opens up the equity allocation limits for insurance capital [4]

Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to attract incremental capital inflows due to significant underweighting compared to the CSI 300 index, driven by new public fund regulations [4][12][13] - The cost of new liabilities has significantly improved, with the transformation of participating insurance progressing beyond expectations, indicating effective cost control measures [4][25][29] - Insurance capital is accelerating its market entry, supported by a series of policies aimed at addressing existing barriers, enhancing the sustainability of insurance fund utilization [4][22][41] Funding Aspect - The public fund regulations are anticipated to lead to increased capital inflows into the insurance sector, which is currently underweighted compared to the CSI 300 index by 9.68% [11][12] - The insurance sector's weight in public funds is expected to gradually correct, with major insurers like Ping An and China Life showing significant underweighting [4][12][13] Liability Aspect - The new liability cost has decreased significantly, with the NBV breakeven yield for major insurers showing improvements: Ping An at 2.42%, China Life at 2.43%, and China Pacific at 2.60% [25][29] - The transformation of participating insurance is progressing well, with major insurers increasing their focus on this product type, indicating a strategic shift in product offerings [4][29] Asset Aspect - Insurance capital is entering the market more rapidly, with policies in place to facilitate this process, including adjustments to the equity investment limits for insurance funds [4][22][41] - The relaxation of investment risk factors for insurance capital is expected to enhance the equity allocation limits, allowing for greater investment in the stock market [4][22] Investment Analysis - The insurance sector is positioned to outperform the market, with policy support and performance recovery being key highlights [7][10] - The sector's performance has been bolstered by favorable regulatory changes and improved earnings, with the insurance index outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.6 percentage points year-to-date [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing enthusiasm of insurance capital entering the capital market, exemplified by China Pacific Insurance's establishment of two large-scale funds totaling 500 billion yuan, indicating a significant trend in the insurance sector's investment strategies [3][4][12]. Fund Establishment - China Pacific Insurance has launched two funds: the Taibao Zhanxin M&A Fund with a target size of 300 billion yuan and the Taibao Zhiyuan No. 1 Private Securities Investment Fund with a target size of 200 billion yuan [4][7]. - The Taibao Zhanxin M&A Fund aims to focus on the reform of state-owned enterprises and the construction of a modern industrial system in Shanghai, emphasizing mergers and acquisitions as a key strategy [8][9]. - The Taibao Zhiyuan No. 1 Fund is designed to invest in the secondary market, responding to national calls for expanding insurance institutions' participation in private securities investment funds [10]. Market Trends - Since 2022, various policies have been introduced to encourage insurance capital to enter the market, making insurance funds a significant source of long-term capital, especially in the primary market [4][12]. - The insurance sector's participation in M&A funds has surged, with a reported increase of over 60% year-on-year in 2024 [9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, China Pacific Insurance reported a revenue of 404.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.74%, and a net profit of 46.44 billion yuan, up 66.39% [13]. - The group's total investment income reached 120.39 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 130.5%, highlighting the importance of investment as a growth driver [13]. Policy Support - Recent regulatory changes have facilitated insurance capital's entry into equity investments, with significant policy shifts allowing higher investment limits in venture capital funds [14]. - By the end of 2024, the scale of insurance capital participating in equity investments is expected to reach 1.92 trillion yuan, with indirect equity investments through funds and products amounting to 950 billion yuan [14]. Investment Challenges - Despite the growing interest, insurance capital has stringent requirements for fund management scale, past performance, and investment focus, making it challenging for many funds to secure investment [15]. - The article suggests that as policies continue to loosen, more insurance funds are likely to enter the primary market, providing additional capital to the sector [15].

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Asset Management's increased stake in Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) signals confidence in the bank's future and highlights the investment value of the banking sector in the current market [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Actions - Ping An Asset Management has steadily increased its holdings in ABC to 15.09%, reflecting a positive outlook on the bank's development [1]. - In 2023, Ping An Asset Management has actively invested in other banks, including Postal Savings Bank and China Merchants Bank, indicating a strategic focus on the banking sector [1][2]. - The frequency of stake increases by insurance funds has accelerated, with 15 announcements made by insurance institutions, particularly favoring high-dividend bank stocks [3]. Group 2: Characteristics of Bank Stocks - Bank stocks are characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and low volatility, making them attractive to long-term investors [4][5]. - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio of bank stocks is below 1, providing a safety margin for long-term investors [4]. - Bank stocks typically offer stable cash flows and high dividend yields, appealing to risk-averse investors [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Policy Support - Regulatory policies are encouraging long-term capital, including insurance funds, to increase their investments in the stock market, particularly in bank stocks [6][7]. - The macroeconomic environment and the need for stable, high-yield assets are driving insurance funds to favor bank stocks, especially large state-owned banks [7]. - The ongoing digital transformation in the banking sector is expected to enhance operational efficiency and create new growth opportunities [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The banking sector is at a potential turning point for re-evaluation, with long-term capital inflows and favorable policies supporting its growth [8]. - The internationalization of Chinese banks and improvements in corporate governance are expected to enhance their long-term development quality [8].

每经记者｜吴永久 每经编辑｜闫峰峰 本周末的重要消息有：一是，美国5月非农数据好于预期；二是中美经贸磋商机制首次会议将举行。 周五，美股在5月非农数据好于预期的刺激下，大幅高开，随后明显回落，在贸易谈判消息刺激下，又涨了回去。 在每日经济新闻App举办的掘金大赛第62期比赛中，目前已经进行了4天，参赛选手们跑步入场。目前上证指数面临3400点的压力，后市行情如何走？未 来的主线有哪些？一些参赛高手分享了观点。 大赛为模拟炒股，模拟资金50万元。第62期比赛报名时间为5月31日到6月13日，比赛时间为6月3日到6月13日。正收益就获奖，报名就拿福利！周周发奖 金，月月有大奖！ 每期比赛的税前现金奖励为：第1名奖励688元，第2~4名奖励188元/人，第5~10名奖励88元/人，其余正收益选手均分500元正收益奖。月度积分王的税前 现金奖励为：第1名奖励888元，第2~4名奖励288元/人，第5~10名奖励188元/人，第11~30名奖励68元/人，第31~100名奖励18元/人。 上证指数或将迎来主升浪？高手看好这些主线 消息面上，6月6日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，就业人数增加13.9万人，虽然创2月以来 ...

非银行业周报 20250608 险资成立私募基金的考量 2025 年 06 月 08 日 ➢ 头部险资纷纷成立私募股权基金，探索股权投资和二级市场股票投资新形 式。中国太保 6 月 3 日正式成立太保战新并购基金和私募证券投资基金，分别聚 焦战略新兴产业和私募证券投资基金，总规模达到 500 亿元。近期在推动中长期 资金入市政策出台，叠加险资长期投资试点的背景下，头部大型险企纷纷通过私 募基金的形式，探索股权投资助力产业发展，以及二级市场股票投资助力权益市 场。从太保本次成立的总规模 500 亿的 2 只私募基金来看，其中一只基金太保 战新并购私募基金目标规模 300 亿元，首批规模 100 亿，主要将聚焦上海国资 国企改革和现代化产业体系建设的重点领域，助力推动上海战新产业发展以及重 点产业的强链补链。另一只基金，太保致远 1 号私募证券投资基金目标规模 200 亿，主要是响应国家扩大保险机构设立私募证券投资基金改革试点，聚焦二级市 场优质标的以及分红稳定股息较高的标的来加强股票投资，有望有效应对长端利 率中枢的下行并助力资本市场稳定。 ➢ 险资作为重要的机构投资者，伴随政策支持和利率下行的客观趋势，通过私 ...