2026年01月07日 2026 年 1 月 7 日 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：铁锂加工费提涨，市场情绪偏强 | 4 | | 工业硅：消息面扰动，盘面表现偏强 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注今日市场消息影响 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 139,800 | 5,700 | 7,410 | 16 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a price increase driven by supply constraints and emerging demand, with significant contributions from policy guidance and industry self-discipline [6][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF surged over 3.3% on January 6, reaching a new high not seen in 22 years [3]. - The chemical ETF's total size has increased to 3.893 billion yuan, marking a historical peak since its inception in August 2025 [4]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - Wanhua Chemical plans to continuously raise global prices for core products like MDI/TDI starting December 2025, aligning with international giants such as BASF and Dow [6]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes saw significant quarterly increases of 185.71% and 92.41%, respectively, in Q4 2025, leading to a sharp recovery in profitability for related companies [7]. Group 3: Industry Fundamentals - After approximately three and a half years of a downturn, the chemical industry is witnessing a peak in capital expenditure, with supply expansion slowing down [6]. - Policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and stabilizing prices are accelerating profit recovery in the sector [6]. Group 4: Demand Factors - Expectations of a global interest rate cut are boosting traditional demand, while emerging fields such as new energy, energy storage, and AI are providing new growth momentum [6]. Group 5: Company Performance - Tianqi Materials, a major component of the chemical ETF, forecasts a net profit of 1.1 to 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 127.31% to 230.63% [6]. - The company's Q4 performance is expected to be particularly strong, with a projected net profit of approximately 929 million yuan, a 508% increase compared to Q3 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Fujian (Xiamen) Social Security Science and Technology Equity Investment Fund marks a significant step in the development of investment funds in China, with a focus on key industries aligned with national policies and local economic strategies [3][4]. Fund Overview - The fund was officially announced on December 4, 2025, with a first-phase scale of 20 billion yuan (approximately 2.9 billion USD) [5]. - It is jointly initiated by the Fujian Province, Xiamen City, the National Social Security Fund Council, and China Construction Bank [5]. Investment Focus - The fund will adopt a "dual-layer, joint management" structure, targeting sectors such as artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, new energy, new materials, biomedicine, and next-generation information technology [5]. - The fund aims to leverage social capital to empower technological innovation and support the construction of a modern industrial system [5]. Future Plans - The fund plans to establish a cooperative model that integrates national capital guidance, local government support, and market-oriented operations [5]. - It will focus on linking local quality industries and innovation resources to cultivate long-term and patient capital for economic structural upgrades [5]. Related Funds - This fund is the second of five publicly announced social security science and technology funds, with the first being the Zhejiang Social Security Science and Technology Fund, which has a first-phase scale of 50 billion yuan (approximately 7.1 billion USD) [6][7]. - Other funds include the Jiangsu, Hubei, and Sichuan Social Security Science and Technology Funds, with varying scales and focuses on different industrial sectors [8][9][10]. - Collectively, these funds represent a total initial scale of 160 billion yuan (approximately 22.9 billion USD), with the potential to leverage over 600 billion yuan (approximately 85.7 billion USD) in social capital [10].

6日，上证指数以震荡上行在4000点上方调整，最终收盘站稳4000点上方，报4083.67点，上涨1.50%。 截至收盘，深证成指报14022.55点，涨幅1.40%；创业板指报3319.29点，涨幅0.75%。 回顾A股历史，沪指突破4000点的情形并不多见，此前仅出现在两轮行情中，分别是2007年5月与2015 年4月两轮牛市。A股本轮行情首次站上4000点是在2025年10月29日，此后又在3800点到4000点附近反 复震荡，在去年年末蓄力多日后持续上扬，终于在2026年的第一个交易日（5日）再度站上4000点。与 前两轮行情相比，本轮突破具有明显的结构性特征，且市场参与者中，机构投资者占比增加，硬科技、 高端制造、新能源等符合国家战略方向的赛道领涨市场。 对于后市走势，多家市场机构判断，春季躁动值得期待。 羊城晚报讯 记者莫谨榕报道：6日，上证指数成功站稳4000点整数关口，收盘报4083.67点，录得13连 阳，创下十年收盘新高。当日市场呈现普涨格局，全市场成交额突破2.83万亿元，超4100只个股上涨。 在积极宏观政策支撑、宏观经济回暖及增量资金入市等多重因素的支撑下，沪指自2025年"924行 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wanbang Digital Energy, the parent company of Xixing Charging, is planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after two unsuccessful attempts to go public in China, marking its first attempt at an IPO in Hong Kong [1][2]. Company Overview - Wanbang Energy was established in 2014 and is based in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, focusing on the charging pile sector as the parent company of Xixing Charging [2]. - The company has become a leading player in the charging market, manufacturing charging piles and collaborating with local utility companies to build a charging network [2]. Market Position - As of 2024, Wanbang Energy is the largest global supplier of smart charging equipment, with over 470,000 units sold [2]. - Xixing Charging operates 726,000 public charging piles, holding a market share of 15.7%, ranking second among domestic operators, just behind Telai Electric [3]. Financial Performance - Wanbang Energy's revenue has been on the rise, with 2023 revenue at 3.474 billion yuan, increasing to 4.182 billion yuan in 2024, and 3.072 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 23% year-on-year growth [4][6]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that smart charging equipment and services accounted for 77.9% of total revenue, while microgrid systems and large-scale energy storage systems contributed 12.3% and 9.8%, respectively [4]. Profitability Challenges - Despite revenue growth, Wanbang Energy's net profit has not kept pace, with a decline of 31.7% in 2024 to 336 million yuan, although it rebounded to 301 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, boosted by a one-time asset transfer gain [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - The charging pile market is highly competitive, with Wanbang Energy facing challenges in maintaining profitability due to a single revenue model primarily based on service fees [4][6]. - The recent IPO of Zhida Technology, a competitor in the home electric vehicle charging sector, indicates increasing competition in the market [6][8]. Strategic Partnerships - Wanbang Energy has established strategic partnerships with major automotive brands, including Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Jaguar Land Rover, and Volkswagen, leveraging its historical strengths in vehicle sales [2]. Future Outlook - The company aims to expand its business through the upcoming IPO, which is seen as a necessary step to secure funding and enhance its competitive position in the evolving charging infrastructure market [8].

Group 1 - Nickel prices surged over 10% on the London Metal Exchange (LME), reaching a peak of $18,545 per ton, marking the largest intraday increase since 2022, with a cumulative rise of over 20% in the past two weeks [1] - The core logic behind the price increase is the strengthening expectation of supply contraction, driven by the suspension of nickel mining activities by Indonesia's Vale due to unapproved annual work plans [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel mining quotas by 250 million tons by 2026, which has intensified supply constraint expectations, significantly boosting market sentiment [1] Group 2 - According to Fangzheng Securities, the suspension of nickel mining by Vale and the Indonesian government's quota reduction plan are expected to accelerate the supply-demand rebalancing in the nickel industry [2] - The long-term upward trend for industrial metals remains intact, supported by supply shortages in copper and expectations of mid-term easing from the Federal Reserve, with nickel benefiting from supply contraction and renewable energy demand [2] - The rise in nickel prices will directly benefit nickel mining, smelting, and nickel-cobalt new material companies, while also exerting cost pressure on downstream industries such as stainless steel and new energy batteries [2] Group 3 - Company Greenme focuses on the recycling and manufacturing of new energy battery materials, possessing nickel resource recovery and smelting capacity, and has established stable cooperation with downstream battery enterprises [3] - Company Huaxin Environmental's subsidiary, Anhui Huaxin Jintong Environmental Technology Co., Ltd., primarily produces cathode copper from black copper refining, along with gold, silver, and nickel products [3]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ □ 有助于股票市场持续成长，中长期平稳向好。股票市场对实体经济高质量发展的支持力度会持续加 大，对经济发展作出更大贡献。 □ 有助于市场更加有力地支持高新技术企业上市，更好支持新质生产力的培育与成长。一方面，科技企 业上市加快将激活股市的融资与成长双引擎；另一方面，科技赛道崛起将优化股市结构并重塑估值体 系。 □ 有助于丰富股票、基金以及衍生品等资本市场产品，为境内外投资者提供更多优质的可投资产品。一 方面，股票市场投资需求推动产品拓展与创新；另一方面，政策推动产品创新。 □ 有助于提升居民的资产配置能力，不断改善配置结构。资本市场的加速发展正深刻重塑居民资产配置 格局，推动配置能力的提升与配置结构的优化，而房地产与权益资产的占比调整则成为核心趋势。未来 房地产资产的配置占比将持续下降，权益资产的配置占比上升。这一变革是低利率环境、政策引导与市 场成熟度提升共同作用的结果。 □ 有助于金融结构发生重大转变，直接融资比重上升，间接融资比重下降，资本市场会成为货币政策关 注和调节的重点领域。直接融资的发展将有助于现代化产业体系的构建和经济结 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese private equity investment industry has reached a historic turning point after years of adjustment, with long-term investors beginning to reap rewards as short-term speculators exit the market [1] - In 2025, the total fundraising amount for the industry is expected to exceed 1.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, with over 3,500 new funds, marking an 18% increase [1] Group 1: Structural Changes and Investment Strategies - The role of state-owned capital (国资) has been further strengthened, with local guiding funds and state-owned capital accounting for over 50% of contributions, while the fundraising of foreign currency funds has decreased by 55% year-on-year [3] - State-owned limited partners (LPs) are integrating national strategies and regional economic development goals into their investment decisions, with a clear directive to allocate 70% of funds to early-stage technology companies [3] - The investment strategy of VC/PE has shifted from broad-based approaches to more targeted investments, with a noticeable decrease in the concentration of large funds exceeding 5 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Focus on Hard Technology - Hard technology is expected to be the primary focus for private equity investments in 2025 and the coming years, encompassing areas such as artificial intelligence, robotics, semiconductors, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, life sciences, and new energy [5] - The establishment of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, Growth Enterprise Market, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and Beijing Stock Exchange has provided critical windows for capitalizing on hard technology investments [5] - Early-stage financing transactions (A-round and earlier) are projected to account for 62% of total transactions, with small investments under 10 million yuan exceeding 67% [5] Group 3: Exit Strategies and Market Recovery - The exit environment is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the IPO market, with A-share and Hong Kong markets accounting for 16% and 33% of global IPO numbers and fundraising amounts, respectively [7] - The number of IPO cases for invested companies in Hong Kong increased by 46.9% year-on-year, while the fundraising amount grew by 148.1% [7] - Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have also seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 84% in exit cases, totaling 352 cases in the first three quarters of 2025 [7] Group 4: Long-term Vision and Future Outlook - The theme "Visionaries Win" reflects the need for foresight in navigating the challenges and opportunities within the private equity investment landscape [9] - The upcoming 15th China Capital Annual Conference aims to gather key players in the industry to discuss emerging trends and strategies for success in fundraising and investment [9][10] - The investment landscape is expected to evolve towards greater specialization, internationalization, and sustainability, driven by ongoing policy optimization and the deep integration of technology and industry [13]

Group 1 - In 2026, China's economy officially embarks on the "14th Five-Year Plan" with strong policy collaboration and market vitality, highlighting the role of listed companies as a backbone of the national economy [1] - A series of investment and cooperation announcements have emerged, showcasing robust economic development, including the signing of 22 key projects with a total investment of approximately 40 billion yuan, with over 80% allocated to future industries [2] - Yifan Pharmaceutical has signed agreements to obtain exclusive rights for a late-stage clinical anti-tumor drug, enhancing its oncology pipeline while avoiding high costs and time associated with independent R&D [3] Group 2 - Major projects are accelerating, such as the semiconductor intelligent manufacturing industrial base in Zhengzhou, with a total investment of 1.8 billion yuan, focusing on semiconductor back-end testing equipment and IoT safety production systems [4] - The Bozhong Precision Engineering's new energy intelligent equipment R&D and manufacturing base in Suzhou has a total investment of 1 billion yuan, expected to achieve annual sales of 4 billion yuan upon full production [5] - Xusheng Group has received a notification from a North American electric vehicle manufacturer for a project with a lifecycle sales amount of approximately 7.8 billion yuan, expected to start mass production by the end of 2026 [6] Group 3 - Defu Technology's subsidiary has signed a cooperation agreement with a leading domestic CCL company to ensure stable supply of high-end electronic circuit copper foil products for 2026, positively impacting future financial performance [7] - Qiaoyin Co. has won a bid for an integrated urban sanitation project with a contract value of 1.225 billion yuan over a 25-year service period, expected to enhance market expansion and future operational performance [7]

Core Insights - The transition of the stock market into a new development era is a milestone in China's economic and financial development, expected to have significant positive impacts on various sectors [1][19]. Group 1: Stock Market Growth and Support for High-Tech Enterprises - The stock market is anticipated to continue its growth, contributing more to high-quality economic development, with a projected market value exceeding 135 trillion yuan by 2026 [19]. - The acceleration of high-tech enterprise listings will activate the dual engines of financing and growth in the stock market, enhancing the market structure and valuation system [20]. - The rise of high-tech sectors is expected to optimize the stock market structure, with a significant shift of market funds towards high-quality technology assets [20]. Group 2: Asset Allocation and Financial Structure Changes - There is a notable structural change in asset allocation, with a decline in real estate investment and an increase in equity assets, driven by a low-interest environment and policy guidance [22][23]. - The shift towards direct financing is expected to rise, with capital markets becoming a focal point for monetary policy adjustments, enhancing the precision of funding allocation for high-risk, high-growth enterprises [23]. Group 3: Policy Support and Regulatory Environment - The government has been actively promoting a supportive environment for the stock market, with multiple policy signals aimed at enhancing investor confidence and market stability [12][13]. - Regulatory reforms are being implemented to protect investor rights and ensure a fair market environment, which is crucial for the healthy development of the stock market [13][14]. Group 4: Internationalization of the Renminbi - The development of a mature capital market is essential for the internationalization of the Renminbi, with increasing demand for Renminbi assets expected as the capital market expands [24].