消费电子 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 分析师：洪嘉琳 执业证书编号：S0740524090003 Email：hongjl@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 7,285.75 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 7,269.27 | | 市价(元) | 56.71 | | 市值(百万元) | 413,174.61 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 412,240.16 | Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740521120001 Email：yangxu01@zts.com.cn 1、《立讯精密：25Q3 归母超预期， 端+云 AI 打开成长空间》2025-10-31 2、《消费电子稳健增长，AI 算力& 汽车打开增量空间》2025-08-26 3、《24 年业绩符合预告，25H1 预 计保持 20%+增长》2025-04-28 立讯精密 AI 通讯业务深度 ——全面布局铜光热电，深度受益 AI 浪潮 立讯精密（002475.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 01 月 05 日 | 评级： ...

Core Viewpoint - The speed of training large AI models ultimately depends on two concepts: scaling up and scaling out, which involve different physical connection technologies [1][2]. Group 1: Scaling Technologies - Scaling out refers to increasing the number of interconnected AI computers to handle large tasks, while scaling up involves integrating as many GPUs as possible within each computer [1]. - Scaling out relies on photonic chips and optical fibers for data transmission, while scaling up uses copper cables, which are simpler and more economical [1]. - The network density achieved through scaling up is approximately ten times that of scaling out, but the data transfer rates required for high-performance computing are approaching the physical limits of copper cables [1][2]. Group 2: Challenges with Copper Cables - Copper cables face limitations due to the skin effect, which causes high-frequency signals to concentrate near the surface, increasing resistance and requiring thicker cables and more power [7][8]. - Active electrical cables (AECs) have been developed to mitigate these issues, but they increase complexity and power consumption [8]. Group 3: Innovations in Data Transmission - Point2 Technology and AttoTude propose a new solution that combines the low cost and reliability of copper cables with the fine size and long-distance capabilities of optical fibers [2][4]. - Point2 plans to mass-produce cables capable of 1.6 terabits per second using polymer waveguides, while AttoTude is developing similar technology using terahertz frequencies [4][11]. - Both companies claim their technologies can easily surpass copper cables in transmission distance, achieving 10-20 meters without significant loss [4][5]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The wireless technology being developed is expected to be more reliable and easier to manufacture than photonic technology, potentially replacing some copper cables in printed circuit boards [5][14]. - The market for vertical expansion networks is growing, with companies looking to integrate more GPUs while minimizing cooling technology needs [15][16]. - Both Point2 and AttoTude are working on versions of their technology that can be directly integrated into GPUs, which could further enhance performance and efficiency [15][16].

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·电子 电子行业深度报告 AI 基建，光板铜电—光&铜篇 主流算力芯片 Scale up&out 方案全解析 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 产业链相关公司： 光芯片：长光华芯、源杰科技、仕佳光子等 铜缆：华丰科技、兆龙互连、沃尔核材等 ◼ 风险提示：算力互联需求不及预期，客户拓展及份额提升不及预期，产 品研发及量产落地不及预期，行业竞争加剧 -15% -8% -1% 6% 13% 20% 27% 34% 41% 48% 2024/12/27 2025/4/27 2025/8/26 2025/12/25 电子 沪深300 相关研究 《从云端算力国产化到端侧 AI 爆发， 电子行业的戴维斯双击时刻——电子 行业 2026 年投资策略》 2025-12-10 2025 年 12 月 27 日 证券分析师 陈海进 执业证书：S0600525020001 chenhj@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 解承堯 执业证书：S0600125020001 xiechy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 《Credo 营收超预期&Marvell 收 ...

不断挑战新高的铜价，明年还有多少空间？ 摩根士丹利于12月发布的研究报告指出，在可再生能源需求增长放缓、供给受限的背景下，数据中心正 成为铜需求增长的关键引擎，有望推动铜价创下历史新高，2026年全球铜市场或将出现2004年以来最大 年度缺口。 01 数据中心铜需求爆发式增长 报告预测，2025年全球数据中心铜消费量约为50万吨，占全球铜总需求的1.5%；2026年这一数据将增 至74万吨，为全球铜需求增长贡献0.6个百分点，有效抵消可再生能源领域需求放缓的影响。 长期来看，到2027年，数据中心铜消费量有望达到100万吨(占总需求2.8%)，2028年进一步增至130万吨 (占比3.3%)，复合年增长率达40%。 这一增长主要由生成式人工智能驱动。数据显示，2023年GenAI相关数据中心电力消耗占2022年全球数 据中心电力的6%，2025年将升至36%，2027年更是有望超过2022年数据中心电力总量。 2025年数据中心总电力需求预计达88吉瓦，2026年增至115吉瓦，2028年将达199吉瓦，电力需求的激增 直接拉动了铜在配电等环节的消耗。 从铜强度情景来看，中性情景下数据中心铜强度为27千吨/吉 ...

不是，这年头用在电视上的 Micro LED 技术 ，还能做成网线，用来传数据了？ 是这样的，前阵子托尼在网上刷到这样一条新闻，说微软正在研究通过 Micro LED 光互联技术（MOSAIC），来解决算力中心的数据传输，被 "卡脖子" 的问题。 而数据中心的端口交换速率，100 Gbps 早就已经是主流，AI 算力中心的交换机，更是要做到 400 Gbps 起步。 emmm，虽然听起来很抽象，但是负责数据处理的算力中心，反过来被数据传输卡了脖子，竟然是因为算力中心的网线 "不够用了"。。。 你可能好奇了，我这会儿上某东搜条超六类的万兆（10Gbps）网线也就十几块钱，咋能不够用呢？ 但其实它们跟数据中心用的网线，在连接速率上，差了可不止一个数量级 —— 我们家里的网线，通常能承载的最大速率就是 1000 Mbps - 2500 Mbps，也就是 1 Gbps - 2.5 Gbps。这两年部分地区在推广 "万兆网络"，匹配了 10 Gbps 的 网线，但这几乎就是民用网线速率的上限了。 其实就是因为 AI 大模型越来越大，在做训练和推理的时候，服务器之间和 GPU 之间，都得交换大量数据，对带宽的需求也就跟着 ...

据悉，国际能源署近期发布的数据显示，即使在高产量的情况下，到2035年全球铜供应缺口仍将达到 20%。美国高盛集团日前发布报告预计，自明年开始，铜价将迈入新的高价交易阶段。 另据媒体报道，未来，AI的快速发展将成为铜需求的一大变量。崔钊瑞表示，AI、数据中心对铜的新 需求体现在硬件制造、电路连接、电力传输等方面。AI需要高性能的处理器，数据中心需要高速低延 迟的网络连接以及大量的电力来确保运行，这些需求给铜箔、铜缆等相关铜材的消费带来新的增长动 能。 美联储降息预期也是影响铜价的一大因素。美国自动数据处理公司(ADP)发布的最新就业报告显示，11 月美国私营部门意外减少约3.2万个工作岗位，这一数据远低于市场此前预期的新增岗位。另据美国劳 工统计局公布的数据，9月美国进口物价指数月率为0%，也低于市场预期的0.10%。 上海钢联铜事业部研究员崔钊瑞表示，11月21日多位美联储高级官员集中发表讲话，部分官员表态 偏"鸽"，美联储内部的分歧依然显著。市场对美联储12月降息25bp的预期急速升温，短期内或对铜价有 所支撑。（每日经济新闻综合央视财经、上海证券报） （原标题：国际铜价近期大涨！大量运往美国，全球库存告 ...

上海钢联铜事业部研究员崔钊瑞表示，11月21日多位美联储高级官员集中发表讲话，部分官员表态偏"鸽"，美联储内部的分歧依然显著。市场对美联储12月 降息25bp的预期急速升温，短期内或对铜价有所支撑。 每日经济新闻综合央视财经、上海证券报 图片来源：视觉中国 另据媒体报道，未来，AI的快速发展将成为铜需求的一大变量。崔钊瑞表示，AI、数据中心对铜的新需求体现在硬件制造、电路连接、电力传输等方面。 AI需要高性能的处理器，数据中心需要高速低延迟的网络连接以及大量的电力来确保运行，这些需求给铜箔、铜缆等相关铜材的消费带来新的增长动能。 美联储降息预期也是影响铜价的一大因素。美国自动数据处理公司(ADP)发布的最新就业报告显示，11月美国私营部门意外减少约3.2万个工作岗位，这一数 据远低于市场此前预期的新增岗位。另据美国劳工统计局公布的数据，9月美国进口物价指数月率为0%，也低于市场预期的0.10%。 据央视财经，受到全球铜供应趋紧和对美国潜在关税的担忧等，当地时间12月3日，英国伦敦金属交易所铜价格一度触及每吨11540美元的历史高位，国际铜 价继续刷新历史新高。 业内人士表示，此轮铜价上涨受到多重因素影响。首先 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses Google's TPU v7 interconnect architecture, focusing on the ratio of TPU to copper cables and optical modules, highlighting the technical aspects of the TPU design and its cooling solutions [1][6][7]. TPU Rack Interconnect Architecture - One of the notable features of TPU is its ability to achieve large-scale world size expansion through the ICI protocol, with a TPU Pod capable of accommodating up to 9216 Ironwood TPUs [2]. - Each TPU rack consists of 16 TPU trays and a varying number of host CPU trays, along with a top-of-rack switch and power units [2]. - The TPU tray contains a TPU board with four TPU chips, each equipped with multiple interfaces for interconnectivity [2]. Cooling Solutions - Google has adopted liquid cooling for TPU racks since the TPU v3 era, with a 1:1 ratio of TPU trays to host CPU trays in liquid-cooled racks, compared to a 2:1 ratio in air-cooled racks [6]. - The market anticipates that 2024 will be the "year of liquid cooling," as more ASIC servers begin to adopt this technology, indicating significant market growth potential [6]. Market Projections - In 2026, Google is expected to ship 2.5 million TPU v7 units, leading to a liquid cooling market space of approximately $2.8 to $3.2 billion [7]. - By 2027, shipments are projected to exceed 5 million units, with the value of liquid cooling per rack potentially increasing to $90,000 to $100,000, resulting in a market space of $7 to $8 billion [7]. Interconnect Design - The TPU v7 utilizes a 3D torus topology for interconnectivity, where each TPU connects to six neighboring nodes across three dimensions [8]. - Internal connections within the TPU tray use copper cables, while external connections utilize optical modules and OCS for inter-unit communication [9][12]. Optical Connectivity and Market Demand - A TPU Pod with 9216 TPUs will require approximately 11,520 copper cables and 13,824 optical modules, indicating a significant demand for optical components in the market [16]. - Google is projected to need around 15,000 OCS switches by 2026, with a market space for OCS estimated at $2.2 billion based on a price of $150,000 per switch [17][18].

Core Insights - The successful sale of 1009 tons of carbon credits in Baoxing County represents a significant step in transforming ecological resources into tangible economic benefits, marking the first carbon trading project in Sichuan Province [1][2] - Baoxing County has implemented a comprehensive development strategy that integrates ecological restoration, high-quality development, and the establishment of a modern ecological industry system, achieving notable progress in various sectors [1][2] Carbon Credit Development - Baoxing County has established a carbon credit development model based on its forest resources, including 36,000 acres of CCER afforestation carbon credits and 12,000 acres of "Panda Carbon Benefits," benefiting over 2,000 households with an estimated value of approximately 28 million yuan [2] - The county has been recognized for its ecological achievements, being awarded the title of "China's Forest Granary County" and establishing the first provincial carbon credit legal practice base in the country [2] Industrial Growth - The "Flying Economy" model in Baoxing County has led to the concentration of industrial projects in the Ya'an Economic and Technological Development Zone, resulting in a significant increase in industrial output value, projected to reach 11 billion yuan in 2024, a 39.4% year-on-year growth [6] - The Flying Industrial Park has achieved comprehensive coverage of material-grade products and has attracted multiple downstream processing enterprises, forming a collaborative industrial cluster [4][6] Urban Development - Baoxing County has initiated a systematic project to upgrade public services and infrastructure, including the construction of a new middle school and various housing and fitness facilities, enhancing the living standards in the region [8] - The county's GDP is projected to grow by approximately 6.8% in 2024, with local public budget revenue expected to increase by 8.25%, reflecting the positive impact of carbon credit trading and industrial development [9]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market has experienced volatility following a peak in late October, with recent developments indicating a potential rebound due to changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - After reaching a new high for copper contracts on October 30, the Shanghai copper futures entered a downward trend, but by November 24, prices rebounded to 86,080 yuan per ton [1]. - The Federal Reserve's dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams on November 21 have renewed expectations for a rate cut in December, boosting market confidence [1][2]. - The copper price fluctuations are attributed to the Fed's internal divisions and the broader impact of liquidity pressures in global markets [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the current tug-of-war within the Federal Reserve, between conservative and aggressive rate-cutting strategies, creates significant uncertainty for the market [3]. - There is an expectation that copper prices will rebound in the coming quarter, supported by a potential rate cut and the ongoing demand from sectors like AI and data centers [3][4]. - The rapid development of AI is anticipated to drive new demand for copper, particularly in hardware manufacturing and electrical transmission, contributing to future price support [4].