今日，人工智能产业链持续爆发， 光模块龙头新高不断。光模块含量45%的通信ETF（515880）一度大涨超5%。 每经编辑｜彭水萍 为什么要重点关注光模块？ 目前大模型参数量已经达到了万亿参数规模，每次完成训练和推理都需要面临庞大的运算量，所以，厂商无法依靠单一的GPU或者 AI服务器完成这么庞大的运算。解决方法是组网。 以英伟达的架构为例，网络的目标是将大的计算任务分割，然后分发到每一片GPU上运算，最后再交互结果。所以，组网的第一 步，是将GPU组成一个AI服务器。这个过程是使用NVLink技术来完成的，在Blackwell架构中，介质就是铜缆。 最近，"光模块"带动下的通信ETF无疑是全市场最靓的崽，自4月9日低点以来涨幅已经超过100%。人工智能算力持续催化下，光模 块、服务器、光纤、铜连接等相关领域持续表现亮眼。虽然市场上现在还没有直接的光模块ETF，但是聪明的资金已经纷纷用脚投 票，涌向光模块含量45%的通信ETF（515880）。买不到"光模块"这个纯元，那就珍惜"通信ETF"这个甄嬛。截至8月22日，通信ETF 规模达到60亿元，过去20个交易日净流入资金超24亿元。 光模块+服务器+铜连接+ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from copper cables to optical fibers in data center networks, emphasizing the advantages of optical technology, particularly CPO (Co-Packaged Optics), in supporting next-generation AI servers and addressing the challenges of mass production [2][11]. Group 1: Advantages of Optical Fiber over Copper - Optical fibers offer significantly higher bandwidth, capable of supporting 800G, 1.6T, and above, making them suitable for high-speed interconnect scenarios [3][5]. - The transmission speed of optical fibers is approximately two-thirds the speed of light, which reduces latency and enhances response times in data centers [3]. - Optical fibers can transmit data over much longer distances, with single-mode fibers reaching up to 100 kilometers, compared to copper cables, which typically support less than 10 meters for high-speed transmission [3][4]. - Optical fibers are more reliable, less affected by environmental factors and electromagnetic interference, ensuring stable data transmission in high-power environments like AI data centers [3][4]. - The space efficiency of optical fibers is superior, being thinner, lighter, and more robust, allowing for greater bandwidth in a smaller footprint [3]. Group 2: CPO Technology and Its Importance - CPO technology is identified as a key advancement for next-generation AI servers, integrating optical components directly into the packaging of ASIC/xPU chips, which enhances energy efficiency and bandwidth density [11][15]. - The CPO roadmap indicates a trend towards reducing the distance between optical engines and ASICs, with the industry currently in the commercialization phase of on-board optics [12]. - CPO significantly reduces signal loss and latency by shortening the transmission path between ASICs and optical devices from several centimeters to just a few millimeters [15]. - CPO can lower power consumption by up to 70% compared to traditional optical modules, as it minimizes the need for high-power digital signal processors [15]. Group 3: Challenges in CPO Mass Production - The complexity of packaging technology, including advanced techniques like hybrid bonding and 2.5D/3D packaging, poses challenges for ensuring system reliability and yield management [28]. - There are concerns regarding the performance of silicon-based photonic integrated circuits (PICs) compared to traditional modules using indium phosphide (InP) [28]. - Durability and thermal management are critical, as all optical components are tightly packaged within the ASIC/xPU system, requiring them to withstand high temperatures [28]. - Reliability issues arise from the close integration of optical engines with ASICs, where a single failure could jeopardize the entire high-cost system [28]. Group 4: Future Adoption and Market Trends - The adoption of CPO technology in switches is expected to occur around 2027-2028, particularly as the demand for higher bandwidth solutions increases [30]. - Major companies like Broadcom and NVIDIA are already developing their CPO solutions, indicating a competitive landscape for this technology [31][35]. - The transition of xPU systems to CPO is anticipated to be slower due to higher integration complexity and thermal management challenges, but it could lead to significant market growth in the long term [40].

Group 1 - CPO and copper cable hardware stocks have strengthened again, with Changxin Bochuang rising over 10% to reach a historical high [1] - Mingpu Guangci has hit the daily limit, while Xinya Electronics and Pengding Holdings have increased by over 5% [1] - Other companies such as Robotec, Dekeli, Shenyu Co., and Ruikeda have also seen gains [1] Group 2 - Nvidia has closed up 1.8%, continuing to set historical highs, with its market capitalization briefly surpassing $4 trillion [1]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Short - term copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen, with attention on the upper pressure level of 80,000 [11] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper has risen for three consecutive days. The tight domestic and foreign spot markets and the warming macro - environment are the main reasons for the recent copper price increase. During the off - season, the domestic social inventory has accumulated slowly, with only 0.05 million tons accumulated this week. The export window is open, and smelters are increasing their export efforts. It is still difficult to accumulate domestic social inventory in the future. Under the tight spot situation, the premium has stopped falling and rebounded, but the continuous rise in copper prices has also narrowed the monthly spread on the disk. The LME market 0 - 3 back has continued to fall to $100/ton, and LME inventory has continued to decline by 400 to 93,075 tons. COMEX inventory has risen to 206,000 short tons. There is a structural shortage of global copper inventory, and this inventory contradiction will continue under the influence of the widening C - L spread [11] 2. Industry News - By the end of May 2025, China's new energy installed capacity has achieved a historic breakthrough: wind power installed capacity has reached 570 million kilowatts, and photovoltaic power installed capacity has reached 1.08 billion kilowatts. The combined proportion of the two in the total installed capacity has risen to 45.7%, surpassing the proportion of thermal power installed capacity for the first time, marking a new stage in the energy structure transformation [12] - According to the latest FedWatch data, the market's bet on the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is 20.7%, which is higher than that of a week ago (12.5%), but the market still expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the July interest - rate meeting with a probability of nearly 80%. Although Fed officials have recently signaled an early interest - rate cut, substantial interest - rate cuts may have to wait until September due to the remaining inflation risks in the US and the resilience of the labor market [12] - With the maturity of generative AI technology and the acceleration of data center construction, the demand for copper cables in short - distance high - speed interconnection scenarios has increased significantly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued the "Action Plan for Computing Power Interconnection", aiming to promote the efficient interconnection of computing power infrastructure. High - speed copper cables, as the core components of short - distance transmission in data centers, are expected to become a key policy - supported direction. Nvidia re - claimed the title of the world's "market - value king" on Wednesday. A Wall Street analyst predicted that Nvidia is about to ride on the "golden wave" of artificial intelligence (AI). The market's optimistic sentiment towards the AI track continues to heat up, boosting the market performance of chip stocks and copper - cable high - speed connection concept stocks [12] - Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for the second half of 2025, and the market's re - evaluation of the strategic value of copper resources has indirectly boosted the confidence of the copper - cable high - speed connection industry chain [13]

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened mixed on June 20, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index slightly lower, while the ChiNext Index opened slightly higher [1] - The market saw initial gains followed by a pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing narrow consolidation during the day [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3364.83 points, up 0.08%, with a trading volume of approximately 248.3 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10032.64 points, down 0.19%, with a trading volume of approximately 422.7 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index was at 2015.47 points, down 0.56%, with a trading volume of approximately 213.9 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The railway equipment, photovoltaic, and gaming sectors showed strong performance at the market open, while digital currency, oil and gas, and precious metals sectors faced declines [1] - The BC battery, photolithography machine, and solid-state battery sectors initially strengthened but retreated after reaching highs; meanwhile, the liquor, port shipping, and logistics sectors continued to perform well throughout the day [1] - Financial stocks, including banks and insurance, experienced slight gains, with institutions like Pudong Development Bank and Hangzhou Bank reaching historical highs [1] AI and Technology Investment Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted a resurgence in AI network construction driven by the demand for AI reasoning and training, as well as the maturity of ASIC chips, suggesting a positive outlook for the optical module and copper cable sectors [2] - Huatai Securities noted significant growth in Shanghai Superconductor, a leader in high-temperature superconducting materials, indicating an acceleration in the industry driven by controllable nuclear fusion demand [2] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) emphasized that the current AI market is still in its early stages, recommending attention to opportunities in AI hardware and applications, particularly in areas like embodied intelligence and autonomous driving [2] E-commerce and International Cooperation - The Ministry of Commerce reported that the number of Silk Road e-commerce partner countries has increased to 35, reflecting China's expanding international e-commerce cooperation [3] - In the first five months of 2025, China's e-commerce sector demonstrated strong growth, with significant increases in sales across various digital products and services [3] Energy Consumption Data - The National Energy Administration reported that China's total electricity consumption in May reached 809.6 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [4] - Breakdown of electricity consumption by sector showed the first industry at 11.9 billion kilowatt-hours (up 8.4%), the second industry at 541.4 billion kilowatt-hours (up 2.1%), and the third industry at 155 billion kilowatt-hours (up 9.4%) [4]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a resurgence in AI network construction driven by the convergence of AI inference and training demands, along with the maturity of ASIC chips [1] - A virtuous cycle has formed from AI investment to AI revenue and back to AI investment, leading to a clearer trend of upgrading interconnection components such as optical modules and copper cables, resulting in high prosperity in the sector [1] - It is recommended to focus on leading companies in the optical module supply chain and copper cable/AEC (Active Electric Cable) sectors [1]

Group 1: Core Views - The new AI legislation has eliminated uncertainties in global markets for Nvidia outside of China, boosting market confidence with significant projects like Stargate [2] - Nvidia's stock has rebounded to early 2025 averages, indicating a recovery in market sentiment, while Broadcom approaches historical highs [2] - The US stock market appears to be pricing around the Blackwell generation, with companies like Amphenol and Viavi Technologies being key players in this trend [2][3] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - A-share players are mirroring the logic of the US market, focusing on the pricing recovery of the Blackwell generation while also considering geopolitical risks and technological upgrades [5][6] - Key components for the Blackwell generation include copper cables, optical modules, and PCBs, with PCB production largely unaffected by tariffs due to its export routes [7] - Companies like Shenghong Technology and New Ease have seen significant recovery in market performance, driven by public fund investments [7] Group 3: Domestic Computing Power - Domestic computing power is currently in a phase of consolidation, influenced by factors such as the growth outlook from SMIC and new chip regulations that have halved upstream chip supply [9][10] - The emergence of numerous participants in AIDC has raised concerns about increased competition, as highlighted by recent Q1 financial reports [10] - National-level attention is being directed towards the coordination of AIDC infrastructure to avoid redundant construction [10] Group 4: Future Opportunities - The pricing recovery for Blackwell is expected to complete by the end of June, with future focus on the GB300 and Rubin architectures [12] - The evolution of AI cluster systems is shifting towards "interconnectivity," necessitating innovations in hardware architecture to meet new demands [13] - Opportunities in domestic computing power are anticipated to arise from centralized computing and collaborative innovation between hardware and software [14] Group 5: FAQs - High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) is recognized as a trend, with uncertainties primarily related to tariff barriers that could limit market access [16] - The demand for high-end PCBs is expected to rise as chip complexity increases, although potential shifts in demand due to new technologies like CPO and OIO are noted [17] - The large-scale commercialization of Blackwell is projected to significantly increase the market for 200G/λ, with SiPho technology poised to gain a competitive edge [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the limitations of copper and fiber interconnects in next-generation data centers and introduces a third solution, e-Tube, which aims to support the growing demands of AI workloads and data bandwidth requirements [1][10][16]. Group 1: Challenges in Data Center Expansion - Data center AI accelerator clusters face increasing complexity due to the emergence of new technologies, particularly generative AI and large language models (LLMs), which are pushing data bandwidth beyond traditional interconnects, rapidly doubling to 800G and soon reaching 1.6T [1]. - The need for improved performance, cost control, and energy efficiency presents significant challenges for network operators [4]. Group 2: Limitations of Current Technologies - Data centers currently rely on 400G and 800G network equipment, using copper cables for short distances and fiber optics for long distances, but both technologies are approaching their respective limits in terabit interconnect speeds [3][6]. - Copper cables, while cost-effective and reliable for short distances, suffer from channel loss due to skin effect, limiting their transmission range and scalability in high-density data centers [3][6]. Group 3: Transition to Optical Interconnects - Large-scale enterprises are shifting towards optical interconnects, such as Active Optical Cables (AOC), which can provide connections over several kilometers but come with increased complexity, power consumption, and costs, potentially up to five times that of copper cables [8]. - Optical technologies are less reliable due to performance variations with temperature changes and the eventual failure of optical components, which can also introduce significant latency [8]. Group 4: Introduction of e-Tube Technology - The e-Tube platform offers a scalable multi-terabit interconnect solution using plastic medium waveguides to transmit radio frequency data, overcoming the limitations of copper and fiber optics [10][12]. - e-Tube cables, made from low-density polyethylene (LDPE), can efficiently transmit data without the high-frequency losses associated with copper, supporting data speeds from 56G to 224G and beyond [12]. Group 5: Advantages of e-Tube - e-Tube technology results in a tenfold increase in cable coverage, fivefold reduction in weight, twofold decrease in thickness, threefold reduction in power consumption, and a thousandfold decrease in latency, all while reducing costs by three times [14]. - This technology is positioned as an ideal alternative to copper cables as data centers transition to 1.6T and 3.2T speeds, providing unique power efficiency and compatibility with existing network infrastructure [14][16].

Group 1: Business Performance and Strategy - The company achieved significant performance in 2024, focusing on diversifying customers and increasing market share through unique technology and large-scale delivery capabilities [2] - The company plans to enhance domestic business to reduce reliance on foreign trade and mitigate tariff impacts, aiming for a more resilient operational structure [3] - The company has a cash reserve of 7 billion RMB and is applying for an additional 7 billion RMB credit line to support normal business operations [5] Group 2: Market and Product Development - The company is actively developing high-speed optical interconnect solutions for autonomous driving and is promoting existing products in the market [2] - The expected revenue for 2025 will primarily come from 1.6T, 800G, and 400G orders, along with automotive optical sensing product orders [8] - The company anticipates a continuous increase in the shipment of 1.6T optical modules starting from Q2 2025 [12] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impact - The company is closely monitoring the trade war and tariff increases, implementing proactive measures to mitigate any significant adverse effects on operations [4] - The company’s export business has a substantial portion directed to regions outside the U.S., reducing direct exposure to U.S. tariffs [4] - The company has not experienced major negative impacts from current tariff policies, maintaining normal procurement and sales operations [6] Group 4: Investor Relations and Stock Performance - The company is committed to enhancing investor confidence and stabilizing stock prices through improved communication and operational performance [9] - The company has faced a decline in stock price for seven consecutive months, prompting discussions on strategies to improve market value and investor returns [19] - The company emphasizes the importance of dividends and share buybacks as part of its strategy to enhance investor returns [29] Group 5: Future Outlook and Industry Trends - The optical module industry is expected to maintain good revenue and performance growth due to increasing demand for computing infrastructure [49] - The company is focusing on high-speed products and cost-competitive offerings to drive future profitability [47] - The development of AI applications is expected to significantly boost the demand for computing infrastructure, benefiting the company’s market position [15]

以下文章来源于源深路炒家 ，作者源深路炒家 源深路炒家 . 科技、价值、全球金融视野，尽可能提供独家、深度、领先、优质的信息。 作者 | 源深路炒家 来源 | 源深路炒家 导语 ：所谓的"信息平权先锋"，在产业链中形成闭环配合，利用媒介载体，系统性操控叙事，精确收割。 近几个月，铜缆、国产算力一体机、柴油发电等概念股轮番被热炒，市场像被装了高功率电机，热得发烫，散户在高位疯狂加仓，仿佛谁不押注就 是错过下一轮"科技跃迁"。英伟达的"卡脖子"成了万金油，连Excel里的计算器键都快被按出火星子。 但热度褪去，一季报一出，现实却是一地鸡毛，业绩低于预期、股价跳水、怨声载道。是谁在高位推动这些叙事？谁在背后把控节奏？这场资本戏 码背后，其实隐藏着一条日渐成型的信息垄断产业链。 掌控叙事的不是市场，是"信息平权"的伪装者 表面看，这是信息平权时代：雪球、公众号、知识星球、社群遍地开花，普通人看似拥有了获取投资信息的"话语权"。 但实际上，是大V们组成的"坐庄产业链"在编故事、定节奏、带方向。他们利用庞大的社群影响力和平台资源，将"研究报告"包装成"投资洞察"，引 导情绪，制造热点，提前埋伏，然后趁热出货。 信息平权的 ...