Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Federal Reserve is facing significant uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, with a prevailing cautious sentiment among its members [1][2][9] - The FOMC meeting minutes from July 29-30 reveal that most officials prioritize inflation risks over employment concerns, with only two dissenting votes advocating for a rate cut [4][7] - The consumer price index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4][5] Group 2 - The political pressure from the White House, particularly from President Trump, is intensifying, with calls for the resignation of Fed officials who oppose his economic policies [1][9] - The Fed's decision-making environment is becoming more complex and politicized, although its independence is expected to remain intact in the short term [9][10] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen significantly, with an 82% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, despite the Fed's cautious stance on inflation [6][8]

美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee（2025年FOMC票委）：美联储独立性具有至关重要的作用。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent demand by former President Trump for Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to resign due to allegations of mortgage fraud has intensified the political scrutiny surrounding the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about its independence [1][4]. Group 1: Allegations and Investigations - Trump publicly called for Cook's resignation, claiming she allegedly falsified documents to obtain favorable mortgage terms, which has drawn the attention of the Department of Justice [1][3]. - The Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Bill Pulte, has sent a letter to the Attorney General accusing Cook of mortgage fraud related to properties in Michigan and Georgia, suggesting she may have inflated her income by approximately 30% when purchasing a property in Atlanta in 2019 [3][4]. - An anonymous official from the Department of Justice confirmed receipt of a criminal investigation report regarding Cook's mortgage issues, although no formal investigation has been initiated yet [3]. Group 2: Political Implications - This incident is not the first time Trump has pressured the Federal Reserve; during his presidency, he criticized Chairman Powell's interest rate policies and hinted at potential dismissals [4]. - Analysts suggest that the allegations against Cook, a key economic official appointed by the Biden administration, may be politically motivated, reflecting the ongoing political battles in the U.S. [4][5]. - The demand for Cook's resignation has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is considered crucial for economic stability, leading to a 1.2% drop in the financial sector of the New York stock market on the day of the announcement [4]. Group 3: Future Developments - Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer warned that political figures publicly calling for the resignation of a governor sets a dangerous precedent, and the Senate Banking Committee plans to hold an emergency hearing to discuss maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence [5]. - As the investigation progresses, Cook's position may become a focal point of controversy in U.S. politics, highlighting the pressures faced by independent institutions amid increasing political polarization [5].

据《华尔街日报》援引知情人士的话报道，美国总统特朗普近日向助手们表示，如果前总统拜登任 命的美联储理事丽莎 · 库克（ Lisa Cook ）不辞职，他就考虑将其解雇。 此前，联邦住房金融局（FHFA）负责人比尔·普尔特（Bill Pulte）曾指控库克涉嫌在2021年为两处 房产申请抵押贷款时提交虚假信息。这激起了特朗普的强烈反应。特朗普不仅在社交媒体上要求库克辞 职，还考虑如果她不辞职，要如何以"正当理由"解雇她。 根据普尔特在社交媒体上的指控，库克曾在2021年为其位于密歇根州和亚特兰大的两处房产申请抵 押贷款。而库克在贷款申请中将这两处房产描述为她的主要住所，以获取更优惠的贷款条件。 普尔特声称，库克在文件中做出了虚假声明，从而为她自己争取到了较低的利率、较低的首付以及 更高的贷款额度。他将把这些信息提交给司法部，进行刑事举报。 特朗普在回应普尔特的帖子中表示："库克必须马上辞职！" 但库克回应称，这笔抵押贷款发生在她加入美联储之前，自己也是在媒体上才得知普尔特的指控。 库克表示，并不打算因为一条推文就辞去职务，强调会认真对待有关她财务历史的问题，目前她正在搜 集准确的信息，以回应任何合法的质疑。 上 ...

周四(8月21日)亚市盘中，现货黄金在上一交易日大涨后略微回落，目前金价位于3344美元/盎司附近。FXStreet首席分 析师Valeria Bednarik撰文，对黄金技术前景进行分析。 Bednarik写道，黄金获得了上行动力，但仍受3350美元/盎司附近的卖盘限制。金价目标是攻克3350美元/盎司区域。 周三，现货黄金大幅攀升，美国彭博社分析称，美国总统特朗普呼吁美联储理事库克辞职，引发人们对美联储独立性 的新担忧，提振避险需求，黄金价格因此上涨。 现货黄金周三收盘大涨32.69美元，涨幅近1%，报3348.24美元/盎司。 北京时间周四21:45，标普全球(S&P Global)将公布美国8月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)初值，这份重量级 报告可能对金价走势产生重要影响。 经济学家预计，美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值为49.5，此前7月终值为49.8。 此外，美国8月标普全球服务业PMI初值预计为54.2，此前7月终值为55.7。 (现货黄金4小时图 来源：FXStreet) FXStreet分析师Eren Sengezer指出，7月份的服务业PMI为55.7，如果8月数据出现大幅下滑， ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have rebounded, reaching around $3,352 per ounce, with a notable increase of nearly $40 on Wednesday, closing at $3,348.20, reflecting a rise of approximately 1% [1] - The decline in the US dollar index, which fell by 0.13% to 98.20, has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating global demand [1] - Political pressures from President Trump on the Federal Reserve, including calls for the resignation of Governor Cook, have contributed to the weakening of the dollar, which in turn benefits gold as a hedge against political risk [2] Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed a split among decision-makers, with only two officials supporting a rate cut, while the majority preferred to maintain current rates, reinforcing market expectations for a potential rate cut in September [4] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong central bank demand, easing monetary policy, and a 30% chance of a recession in the next 12 months [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading within a consolidation range of $3,300 to $3,400, with short-term movements reflecting a triangular pattern, indicating potential volatility in the near term [8]

Group 1 - David Zervos, a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair and Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, argues that the perception of the Federal Reserve as independent is inaccurate, stating that political pressure on the Fed has been increasing [1] - Zervos highlights that Democratic lawmakers have been pressuring monetary policymakers to lower interest rates in recent years [1] - He mentions that historically, Treasury Secretaries and the government have attempted to influence the Fed Chair behind the scenes [1] Group 2 - Zervos criticizes current Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not commenting on fiscal debates during a time of increased government spending, suggesting that Powell operates from a leftist perspective [1] - He points out that the Fed's decision to lower interest rates by 50 basis points last September occurred less than two months before the election, which some Republicans believe aided the Democrats [1] - Zervos emphasizes that the ongoing reduction of the Fed's balance sheet has made monetary policy more restrictive than many realize, reinforcing the case for interest rate cuts [2] Group 3 - Zervos defines full employment as an unemployment rate below 3.5%, which is significantly lower than the current rate of 4.2% [2] - He asserts that the Fed has a dual mandate to achieve price stability and maximize employment, which is influenced by the current economic conditions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's independence is questioned by David Zervos, a potential successor to Chairman Powell, who also suggests that Powell leans politically to the left [1] Group 1 - Zervos supports President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's calls for interest rate cuts, arguing that the Federal Reserve's policies are too tight [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the political crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve, particularly in the context of President Trump's influence on interest rate expectations and the potential nomination of a "shadow Fed chair" [3][4][10] - Market expectations for the next Fed chair are focused on candidates with dovish monetary policy stances, including current Fed Governor Waller and NEC Director Hassett [10][16] - The article highlights that the Federal Reserve can set but not manipulate policy rates or the yield curve, emphasizing that interest rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors [5][47] Group 2 - The article suggests a shift in policy from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" as a necessary adjustment for the U.S. government to manage its debt and fiscal deficit [7][9] - It notes that the U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation resembles a "wartime state," necessitating fiscal consolidation through either economic growth or budget cuts [9][19] - The article emphasizes that sustainable fiscal consolidation can lead to a decrease in long-term interest rates, with historical data indicating that a 1% reduction in the fiscal deficit can lower 10-year Treasury yields by 12-35 basis points [7][9]

美联储主席鲍威尔的潜在继任者David Zervos表示，将美联储描述为"独立的"是不准确的，并称鲍威尔 在政治上左倾。"美联储从未独立过，对美联储的政治压力始终在加大，而且还在继续增长，"Jefferies 首席市场策略师Zervos表示。他特别指出，近年来民主党议员对货币政策制定者施压，要求他们降低利 率。Zervos称，历史上有许许多多财政部长和政府"在幕后"试图影响美联储主席的案例。（CNBC） ...